Friday, February 17, 2023

All Eyes on Next Week

Model consensus is amazingly high for large winter system that could strike midweek. Will it materialize as forecast?

241 comments:

  1. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 17, 2023 at 8:20 PM

    First post:

    BRING IT!!!

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  2. HALLOWEEN BLIZZARD 2.0!

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  3. I must say, my 'time and date' app that has lied many times this winter about big snow dumps in the metro is holding fast and steady with the prediction of what all you folks above say. Even the current NOAA forecast for my area is saying 'heavy snow' Wednesday night/Thursday. So, will this hold together and come to fruition? I look forward to all you gurus and the computer printouts/your analyses in the days to come. Thanks for starting the new thread, Bill. Much appreciated.

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  4. My point forecast has only increased the past few days and now has 12-21” forecasted Tues-Thurs.

    #BRINGIT

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  5. And now a look at the pinpoint forecast focused on the MSP Airport
    (*not a forecast but fun for weather geeks)

    Total Snowfall (Kurhera) through Sat 2-23 00Z

    GFS
    2-16 12z: 17.8
    2-17 00z: 11.0
    2-17 12z: 24.4
    2-18 00z: 27.8
    2-18 06z: 26.0
    2-18 12z: 28.1

    ECMWF:

    2-16 12z: 23.4
    2-17 00z: 20.3
    2-17 12z: 22.4
    2-18 00z: 26.7
    2-18 06z: X
    2-18 12z: TDB

    GDPS:

    2-16 12z: 12.9
    2-17 00z: 20.3
    2-17 12z: 21.5
    2-18 00z: 20.7
    2-18 06z: X
    2-18 12z: 23.2

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  6. Is that inches per day? If so that is nuts!

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    1. We could only dream. At the top it says: "Total Snowfall (Kurhera) through Sat 2-23 00Z" so I think those are runs for snow totals as of today and showing what they've been predicting since two days ago through today. The models aren't giving up on this monster. Un-believable. I mean, 20+ inches WOULD rival Halloween '91.

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  7. Does anyone here know when this system is scheduled to “come ashore” out west? It’s fun to track the models after that point when things start to get real!

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  8. Well, 'Spirit of '91' didn't win this year's 'name a snowplow' contest in MN, but wow, to dream it could happen this coming week! Woooo hoooo.

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  9. Mr Novak put out a map on his FB page 6 hours ago (so around 9 this morning) that shows the metro in a "high/alter your travel plans/blizzard?" area for late Tuesday through Thursday.

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  10. PWL this may be the whopper you have been dreaming of. I'm guessing Novak will do a video tomorrow (who remembers the old Bill and Novak vidoes). I see the Weather Channel has given it a name already "Olive" and it hits land late Sunday/Early Monday. Classic hook, should be fun.

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  11. I don’t think it starts late Sunday into Monday. I think MSP won’t start seeing snow until later Tuesday.

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    1. I was talking about the storm being over land in the US. The models tend to me more accurate when the storms are over land.

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  12. Euro 0Z model is spitting out ungodly amounts of snow using Kurhera ratio. 27.1 inches of snow for MSP with pockets of 30+ just to the SE. I refuse to believe this will happen but we will see!

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  13. Thank you for all the updates, everyone. Yes, I remember the Bill and Novak videos, too. And even the grading of the forecasters! Bring it.

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  14. Wow, NOAAA is putting out 4-8" of snow on Tuesday/Tuesday night as of this morning's forecast, and that is just the appetizer!!!! Wednesday night/Thursday brings the other round of 'heavy snow'.... let's see if this holds. Let it SNOW!

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  16. I'm amazed at how consistent the various models have been since late last week on both the track of the storm and the amount of snowfall predicted. I don't think I've ever seen a storm where the models have been agreeing with each other for so long and for so much.

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  17. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 19, 2023 at 11:28 AM

    I mean seriously! I went to the store to stock up. Wetting my pants is an issue as I keep looking at the models run. My list included Depends.

    Bring it!!

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  18. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 19, 2023 at 12:07 PM

    And my dancing is working! Bring me more Ben Gay someone!!!

    Bring it!!

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    1. You know the Big One is coming when PWL gets this excited….he’s out resident “MeteUrologist”!

      Seriously though… this storm needs a better name than “Olive”. It’s a generational snowstorm, not a rescue pug.

      I vote for “The Ash Wednesday Blizzard” or “The National Margarita Day Storm”

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  19. Has anyone ever seen model totals this high this close to the start of storms? Totals will most likely be closer to the Kuchera Ratio since there will be plenty of cold air. NWS is talking about two storms Tuesday afternoon/night and then Wednesday afternoon-Thursday. Crazy

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  20. And now a look at the pinpoint forecast focused on the MSP Airport
    (*not a forecast but fun for weather geeks*)

    Total Snowfall (Kurhera) through Saturday 2-25 00z

    GFS
    2-18 00z: 27.8
    2-18 12z: 28.1
    2-19 00z: 25.6
    2-19 12z: 28.1

    ECMWF:
    2-18 00z: 26.7
    2-18 12z: 26.1
    2-19 00z: 30.6
    2-19 12z: 29.7


    GDPS:
    2-18 00z: 20.7
    2-18 12z: 23.2
    2-19 00z: 26.1
    2-19 12z: 28.3



    Ensembles (10-1 ratio)

    NWS BLEND:
    2-19 13z: 20.7

    EPS (mean):
    2-19 00z: 11.8

    CMCE (mean):
    2-19 00z: 12.3

    GEFS (mean):
    2-19 00z: 13.7




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  21. Area forecast discussion by the NWS- No significant changes were made to this forecast versus the
    previous forecast. A major winter storm remains on track to bring
    heavy snow along with gusty winds and drifting snow across the
    region. I want to put this Winter storm into into context for the
    wider audience. This system has maintained remarkable consistency in
    model and ensemble guidance going back several days. This itself is
    a rare feat for any system. This storm is a high floor, high ceiling
    event. What does that mean? There are high probabilities (75 to 90+
    percent) that many locations in our forecast area will see a foot of
    snow by the time it ends Thursday night. This would be considered
    our "floor" or the lower limit of the potential outcomes. We`ll call
    this the "if everything goes wrong" scenario. The "ceiling" or upper
    limit of the potential outcomes or the "if everything goes right"
    scenario. The ceiling for the entire event is around 2 feet of snow.
    In hockey, every team wants to draft a prospect that has a high
    floor/high ceiling because if they only hit their floor, it`s still
    an impact player on the bottom 6 of your team. But, if they can hit
    the ceiling, you`re getting a superstar type player that doesn`t
    come around often. You know the type. Back to the Meteorology.

    A high floor/high ceiling event that has remarkable run to run
    consistency is an unicorn. But we`re still 48 to 60 hours out from
    when W MN will see the first edge of precipitation move in from the
    Dakotas so there is plenty of time for things to change with respect
    to the forecast. If things trend toward the floor, it`s still a
    major winter storm with significant impacts.

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    1. Thank you Dustball (and Schnee Meister). I didn't know this term, so it's a great lesson in winter storm terminology for me. I appreciate the clear explanation and already shared it with family as they prepare for the work week. Literally, I can't wait. Thank you again.

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  22. You beat me to it, Dustball. I was just about to post the same thing. I like worst case scenarios that result in at least a foot of snow! If we’re going to have a big storm, then let’s have a BIG storm!!

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  23. Oh, and I forgot to say, "P.S." the winter storm watch is now hoisted for the metro area.

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  25. Here are the MSP snowfall records for this coming Tuesday/Wed/Th: Tuesday: 5.5 inches/1962; Wednesday: 8.8 inches/1913; Thursday: 6.3 inches/1909. BRING IT.

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  26. Novak’s metro forecast is 3-6”+ Tuesday and then 8-12”+ Wed-Thursday!!

    Love it except I have to be out of state the beginning of this week and planned to drive home Wednesday.

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  27. I think everyone from the twin cities to Rochester needs to buckle up for 2ft plus of snow... the models are not backing off like they normally do.

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    1. Agreed. I cannot believe the snow totals NOAA is putting out for my city. Holy Snow. 3-9 inches Tuesday/Tuesday night; another 10-16 Wednesday; and 'snow could be heavy' Thursday and not even putting anything out there. These are the ceilings folks above explained to me. Even 'low ceiling' is 13+ Thursday; high ceiling......25 plus Thursday? EPIC EPIC EPIC.

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  28. This appetizer snowfall this morning isn’t the tiny amount. They said it would be. Driving through the Twin Cities this morning was not easy. Plenty of snow and limited visibility through most of the metro.

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    1. Agreed nice little appetizer, how the going forecast for today was “accumulation of one inch” or “accumulation under an inch” depending on city so not far off.
      Question for you all you think the NWS is being a bit lazy with their accumulation forecast on their “headlines”?, like their Watches just read accumulation greater than 12” possible on their graphics At website and social media, I know they go more detail on their discussions but it’s time to put out out some range maps….anyway just my two cents perhaps they come out shortly.

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    2. I have noticed the nws graphics like to rotate between a few displays:
      - % chance of greater then X inches of snow
      - range
      - timing

      As you say the info is always there if you read in but I almost think of it as getting people to think more in terms of planning for impact (i.e timing an plausibility of major event) rather than purely range totals.

      But then I understand the annoyance of just wanting to find the forecast totals without diving into the forecast discussion.

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  29. Anyone with the latest computer models care to post what they are showing for accumulation?

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  30. Big Snow Fan:

    Total for both storms through Thursday

    GFS 12Z 27" Kuchera/14" 10:1
    Euro 6Z Kuchera 24"/ 13" 20:1

    Both seem to agree around 5-6" from the Tuesday night storm.

    The Wednesday night storm is the potential whopper. Both agree around a 3 PM start Wednesday.

    Does Novak still post here?

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    1. Typo on the Euro, should be 10:1 on the 2nd number

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    2. So I have a question, what are we going with with this storm? I mean what is the difference between Kuchera and 10:1?, I see it thrown out here and maps all over social media. If we go with 10:1, it’s a decent storm(Top 20 for sure) on the other hand the Kuchera is about 10-12” more which would put it in epic category…so I don’t understand what are we going with?

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    3. Kuchera attempts to mix the air temp and other factors in for the actual total snow that falls. Here is hw the NWS explained it once.

      "Fluffy snows are expected today and tonight, producing accumulations with very little water. Commonly, the percentage of water to snow is called the "snow ratio". An old rule of thumb was that for every 10 inches of snow, there would be 1 inch of water (10:1). However, this is far from the norm, and recent studies indicate that a 12:1 ratio might be more representative (on average) for the Upper Midwest. This said, there are so many variables that can affect the ratio of liquid water to snow that using a rule of thumb is usually off the mark. In fact, the snow ratios can change dramatically within a snow event itself. Some of the variables that come into play include...

      Depth of the warm layer from the surface into the snow producing cloud. The warmer it is (closer to freezing), the lower the ratio will be.
      Amount of ice in the snow producing cloud. If there is more super cooled water droplets in the cloud, snow ratios will be lower. If there is a higher amount of ice crystals, snow ratios will be higher.
      If its windy, snowflakes can fracture, losing their "lacy" structure and leading to lower accumulations (lower snow ratios).
      Deep cold, in general, promotes higher snow ratios.
      With the very cold air in place across the region at this time, snow ratios today and tonight closer to 20 to 1 are expected, athough they could be higher."

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  31. The short range models are coming in for the first round (Tues night). The RAP model is showing ~11 inches for the MSP airport area for the first round. The HRRR is showing the MSP area split with 10" on the north side to 3" on the south side.

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  32. Picked up an inch of snow this morning in Plymouth/Maple Grove with the first burst. Second burst just started. Looking forward to adding lots more this week to today's 1"+. I get the impression the NWS is a bit reserved with their snow forecasts because they are awaiting the short-term HiRes models to kick in this afternoon to try to better pinpoint tomorrow's expect narrow heaviest snow band, which is in addition to the general 4-6 inches the NWS is predicting for the metro and surrounding areas for tomorrow/tomorrow night.

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  33. Thank you, @ Not Paul D! I feel like Plymouth Weather Lover, I can hardly contain my excitedness! My wife things I'm a moron during these storms.

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  35. Hi DysonGuy, thanks for the numbers. I always appreciate you providing those. Is your NAM figure actually the 10:1 ratio? I ask because I checked the 12z NAM through Friday Feb. 24 00z and saw 17 inches (10:1 ratio) and 25 inches (Kuchera). Thanks!

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    1. Nice catch. Updated--->

      Total Snowfall (Kurhera) through Friday 2-24 00z

      GFS
      2-20 12z: 27.1

      ECMWF:
      2-20 06z: 26.6

      GDPS:
      2-20 12z: 29.1

      NAM:
      2-20 12Z: 22.2

      I will add this model's snow totals are well north of the others (GFS, ECMWF, GDPS) by like 100 miles.

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  36. DysonGuy, where are you located? Are the figures you list for MSP, your residence location, etc?

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  37. For the love of God…let’s beat that 28.6” and put the Halloween Blizzard of 91’ to bed.

    Who’s with me?
    (Go big or go home)

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    1. Meeeeeee! I called this out in the last thread...time to beat the "Halloween Blizzard"!

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    2. I'm with you Bigdaddy and Big Snow Fan; I've been babbling about this storm and high on expectations for over a week now as the models and discussions did not back down.

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  38. Euro is shifting it east and heaviest snow into southern Wisconsin....he we got with the bust...

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    1. The most inaccurate post I’ve read in ages.

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    3. How is it the most inaccurate post the latest euro literally shifted the heaviest of snow south of the metro by about 50 miles and into Southern Wisconsin...

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  39. Will this be considered one event? What are the parameters for determining it?

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    1. That's a good question because the Halloween Blizzard was a multi-day event, if my memory is still working.... yes, just checked, and 'they' say it was from 10/31 through Nov. 3 so this set-up is somewhat similar????

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  40. Already the bust birds are out! Well if it’s a bust already then the NWS who are the experts(not you Ben) must not know anything because their official forecast for the metro is 19-25” that they just put out!

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  41. Winter Storm Warning just hoisted!
    First stab range accumulation in that headline is 18-22”. However you slice it we have a very significant and very long duration snow event on our hands. The “boring” is definitely over, be safe everyone and be prepared!

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  42. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 20, 2023 at 2:33 PM

    This is going to be amazing! Appetizer this morning. A “why the heck not” second appetizer Tuesday into Wednesday. And the main course of ribeye and lobster or whatever else you want on Wednesday into Thursday. A full course, all you could ask for, real meal deal.

    Bring it!!!!!!!

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  43. Tomorrow's snow could be quite significant depending on the intensity. I wouldn't be surprised if someone comes out with 10+ inches some where between Mankato to the north metro.

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  44. GFS 18Z run puts down 32.4 inches for MSP using Kuchera ratio.

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  45. What crazy times…..just adding up my point forecast here in Golden Valley….18-32”!
    So basically it’s like combining the 10:1 ratio output and the Kuchera output and there’s my forecasted range….seriously that’s what it looks/feels like.

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  46. Novak is going LIVE on FB tonight around 8 p.m. for those on FB to "discuss, in depth, our upcoming blockbuster Winter Storm." What is amazing to me is the 'deniers' who do not believe we will get much snow. I'm talking regular folks who just pooh pooh me when I ask if they are prepared for this multi-day event. I hope we get the higher totals so that they 'believe' for once.

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  47. 18Z NAM spits out 28.3” for MSP in Kuchera
    .1 off the Halloween storm

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  48. I think what’s getting lost in all of this is the consensus between all the models. History has shown that there is always one or two outliers. When was the last time SEVERAL models agreed with a storm of this magnitude…???

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  49. Again, thank you all for your analyses/model numbers/etc. As a true 'weather geek' it's been awesome reading the discussion here.

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  50. Just so you all know... this is killing me to watch from afar down here in New Mexico. We're going to get 60 mph winds as the system starts to wind up on Wednesday. I'll personally kick it up northeast to you. (This is Bill...)

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    1. I thought that was you

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    2. Wish you were here, and grateful you started this blog so many years ago.

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  51. The 00Z NAM continues to impress and now exceeds the Halloween storm with a 28.6”(Kuchera)…. beats it by .2.
    This is epic to be talking these numbers the night before the storm hits!

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  52. Oh boy, oh boy!!!

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  53. To have lived through two storms of the century is mind boggling, to have experienced the Halloween storm and now this one.... Well lets just say that I never thought I would live to see another storm of that magnitude and I'm only 65!

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    1. Ditto! I keep telling the kids/grandkids about 1991 and say that they will never forget this. Too bad the great-grands are too young so that they won't have this memory.

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  54. All of the models appear to be calling for snow totals in the metro from the upper 20’s to mid 30’s. However, I can only see the 10:1 ratio for the Euro. Does anyone know what the Kuchera ratio is for the Euro?

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    1. A solid 20-22" But the Euro is a global model, while very good, it is time to focus on the he high resolution short term models, and they are very impressive indeed

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  55. The High resolution models are are in.....OH MY!!!

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    1. Oh, do pray tell! I take it PWL's dancing is working?

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  56. Thanks, Randy. What are the high res short term models showing?

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    1. The 48hr ARW through 6pm Wed. 10"
      The 48hr NSSL Through 6pm Wed 12"
      The 60hr HRW through 6am Thurs. 21"

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    2. Okay, 43 inches? Now I'm getting a tad nervous, ha ha ha. What a monster storm.

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    3. @weathergeek those numbers are not to be summed up. Rather it is how much is predicted to have fallen through the times listed, from 3 different models.

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    4. Thanks for the clarification, Dave. 21" would put us in third place top storms. Keith M on Fox9 put up the top five storms...... and he thinks we can move into top five. Thanks again, Dave.

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  57. The last week’s storm where Iowa and Wisconsin got hit hardest the euro for days had it staying south of Minnesota. The GFS a few days later came into alignment it. I remember the NAM and short range when first showing data were way off north showing it hitting southern in Minnesota. It took another day before they aligned with the big dogs. My gut tells me the short term are still 30-50 miles too far north.

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  58. GFS seems to be pulling itself back into reality. After a few 30"+ runs it is now coming in closer to the Euro. I am interested to see what totals Novak settles on. He is at 4-7" for the Tuesday storm. NWS has settled at the same total (Eden Prairie point forecast). NWS is currently at 12-24" for the Wednesday/Thursday Storm for a grand total of 16-31". Last Euro was at 22" but seems the models keep floating around 25" or so.

    What a storm this could be. Look for the fireworks at the PWL residence.

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    1. Made me smile. I'll look north from St Louis Park to see if I can catch the explosions coming out of PWL's neck of the woods on Thursday.

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  59. Euro 0Z has MSP in the bullseye while GFS sticks with a more southern solution. Using Kuchera ratio it comes out to 25.6 inches from the Euro.

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  60. Thank you all for your wonderful updates. Nothing like getting up at 4 a.m. and checking with YOU all before I hit up NOAA. Have a good day, and please keep up the chatter, snow lovers.

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  61. A quick look at the model's snow pinpoint forcast focused on the MSP Airport through 2-22-23 18z (6PM Wed)

    ECMWF 8.3

    GDPS 8.0

    GFS 9.1

    HRRR 9.1

    HRW ARw 10.8

    HRW FV3 7.7

    HRW NSSL 12.7

    NAM 8.4

    NAM 3km 8.2

    RPDS 9.9

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  62. A look at the storm total pinpoint (KUCHERA) forecast focused on the MSP Airport through 2-24-23 00z (6PM Thurs)

    ECMWF: 17.6

    GDPS: 20.4

    GFS: 26.3

    NAM: 20.1

    RPDS: 26.3

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  63. Tues 2/21 00z Euro High Res puts MSP back in the bullseye (heaviest band hits the north side.)

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  64. Really looking forward to the big storm. I hope it doesn't disappoint. Do yourselves a favor and don't look at the intense heavy RAIN storm showing up for early next week for the southern half of MN. Grrrrr

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  65. Funny, I check this site first as well before NWS or any other outlets - this blog is great! Can someone post computer model outputs when the latest are available this morning?

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    1. Whoops, I hadn't refreshed the page - Dyson guy was already on it - thank you!

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  66. NWS Forecast discussion from 4am this morning



    As you are reading this, keep in mind our greatest certainties and
    uncertainties at this time. Highest confidence exists with respect
    to:

    1) A frontogenetically driven band of heavy snow Tuesday night
    with non-significant winds.
    2) A larger and more widespread shield of all snow Wednesday through
    Thursday with increasingly gusty winds creating life-threatening
    travel impacts.

    Lower confidence exists with respect to:

    1) Snow ratios. We know they will be slightly above climatology
    around 15-20:1, but even a slight shift upwards or downwards can
    drastically affect snow totals. If the event leans closer
    climatology (13:1), expect 3 to 5 inches less from the event.
    2) The timing and extent of blizzard conditions with round two. We
    know it will be gusty and that the freshly fallen and ongoing snow
    will be primed to blow, but areal and temporal extent of the
    impacts from this are hard to pinpoint.

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    1. Thanks for the info. It reinforces the fact for me that prediction is 'inexact' as well as 'exact' and that nobody can say with absolute certainty what the end result will be. As Novak 'joked' on his FB page, if we 'only' got 12 inches everyone would call 'bust' when 12 inches is still awesome. It's good to see that lots of employers are taking this seriously, that Minneapolis is trying to figure out how to help people get their cars off streets and into free lots to get buried 'there' v on a street, that the stores and gas stations are packed as people prepare. I don't remember preparing this much for the Halloween Blizzard, even being a weather geek! Let it snow.........

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  67. It is so weird to have it completely sunny this morning

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    1. And cold! 4 degrees at about 7:00am Glad we're not expecting P-type issues with the incoming storm. Snow, baby!

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  68. 6Z Euro has dropped snow totals for the 2nd storm. 9-14" now with more northern than southern metro. Total of 20" central metro and 17" southern metro from the two storms. Will this trend continue? Hmmm... (GFS is staying consistent with higher amounts and 12Z NAM has higher totals south)

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  69. A look at the total pinpoint (KUCHERA) forecast focused on the MSP Airport through 2-24-23 00z (6PM Thurs)

    ECMWF: 17.6 (06z)

    GDPS: 21.3 (12z)

    GFS: 23.8 (12z)

    NAM: 25.1 (12z)

    NAM 3km 25.7 (12z)

    RPDS: 24.4 (12z)

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  70. The Halloween Blizzard looks to live another year as the #1, models backing off from that level of snow, it lives another day!

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  71. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 21, 2023 at 12:16 PM

    Love how the bust word starts to get thrown around already! No one said we were going to beat the record of the Halloween Blizzard. Some are hoping and there are models to support it. Most forecasters are saying 1-2 feet of snow.

    This would be a bust if the two waves together Gabe us under a foot.

    Maybe others feel different?

    Bring it!!!!!

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    1. Not sure where your seeing bust, except from Ben yesterday.

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  72. Anticipation is watching the radar fill in south/west.... waiting, waiting, waiting for it to start snowing where I live.........let it snow. I'm also watching to see which schools districts are already calling it e-learning tomorrow and Thursday ahead of what's to come........... waiting, waiting, waiting. As PWL says, 'Bring It!'

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  73. Light flakes starting to fall in Plymouth/Maple Grove.

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  74. Just got a message from Minnapolis Public schools - closed for remainder of the week

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    1. Wow, they added Friday! Woot. Most districts seem to be closing/doing e-learning W/Th 'only' so far.

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  75. Snow started in GV @1:50p

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  76. Just got nws update from fema app, lowered totals 16-21 now

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    1. That is still a lot of white stuff to move around/out of the way. Thanks for the update/what part of the metro are you in?

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    2. NOAA for St Louis Park is still showing 16-30" and like PWL says, for me, 16 is still a lot of snow.

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    3. NWS point forecast for my loc (west metro) is 17-31” when adding together all the day/night forecasts through Thursday

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    4. Thanks, James.... Novak has the axis going straight through the middle of the metro, so north might get a bit less than south, but we are all still in his 4-8" out of round one (4-6 north metro/6-8 south metro). That lines up with what you report, James. Let's see what those who measure report tomorrow morning. I'm glad it started so that people might see it's real. Stay safe!

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  77. I'd take those point forecasts with a grain of salt. They can be pretty wonky the way they're loaded up. (This is Bill again...not anonymous.)

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  78. With the point forecasts, the data from the model is a single value, say 3.58 inches. Instead of returning the point value and attempting to handle the variability in snowfall ratios/precip amounts/timing, the NWS will convert this to a range of 3 to 5 inches. Often the larger the point value, the wider the range may be. Because of this, just adding the point forecast ranges may return some very unrealistic values on the high end.

    For example, for downtown Minneapolis, the current point values and the ranges weather.gov provides in the text:
    Tuesday: 1.1" : 1-3"
    Tuesday Night: 3.4" : 3-5"
    Wednesday: 2.2" : 2-4"
    Wednesday Night: 7.1" : 7-11"
    Thursday: 2.5" : 2-4"

    In each of these, the point value is toward the lower end of the range provided that if you add up the point forecast values, you have 16.3", corresponding to 16-21" listed in the winter storm warning.

    Be careful, as adding upper-range values will often return unrealistic values. In cases like this, the range in the warning text is often more accurate.

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  79. Radar trends are quite discouraging thus far up here in Anoka county...

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    1. Agreed! If this round 1 doesn’t get its act together it will be a huge disappointment, being snowing over 3 hours and maybe an inch and my north-south road is not even snow covered and the intensity is very light. West metro.

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  80. Maybe I’m just being impatient, but it seems like Round 1 is sputtering while trying to get its act together?

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    1. I had heard 1-3 this afternoon/evening and that's about what I have in SW Minneapolis though it's on the lower end of things (but more than an inch).

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  81. We are suppose to get 4-8 inches of snow over a 12+ hour period. No one I hope claimed it was going to snow like crazy today. That is reserved for tomorrow afternoon and into Thursday morning.

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  82. Yeah I’m sorry but I got to call like it is and agree with @Stormgeek @John @Joe, this round is a dud. No intensity whatsoever, nothing heavy coming from the south or west. Nobody is seeing 8” from this and will be extremely lucky to get to 4”. What happened to the so called banding that was going to setup? Hopefully round 2 delivers to save some face with this storm, so much hype and it’s opening act fell flat!

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    1. We probably have 3-4 inches down here in goodhue county... but hey I got told I had the most inaccurate statement when I said the thing moved south a little.

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  83. it does appear the main swath went south of the metro but I am not sure what they picked up in that area

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    1. There’s maybe a good band going from just south of St. Cloud/Elk River to Rice Lake and then all the way down by Albert Lea to Austin to perhaps Rochester, everything else is just a very light snow and if u look at the radar the snow is drying up over the core metro. I know you all hate this word but someone needs to be first, bust!. And I’m not saying it to just say it I wished it wasn’t actually but the facts are on the radar unless something “pops” out of nowhere show me where we even get 4-5”.

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    2. PWL didn’t dance today, he took the models for granted and just throw in the towel.

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  84. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 21, 2023 at 8:09 PM

    I did stop (you are right). I got lax and now look!! I will start up dancing again RIGHT NOW!! I will be doing the banding dance!!

    Bring it!

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  85. Someone on this site is going to complain that we didn't get enough snow. Wait for it. It will happen.

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  86. Snow has come to a complete stop in North Minneapolis! What a disappointment!

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    1. Can we IP ban trolls? No wonder the regulars from back in the day rarely come around anymore. This is suppose to be a place of discussion and when the storm in the grand scheme of things has barely even started.. and have people in here more or less calling it a bust at this point serves no purpose.

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  87. This is Greg. Used to comment on occasion but about a year ago my comments no longer showed up. Seeing if this does. Thanks

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  88. A good chunk of southern MN/WI are already well on their way to a big SNOW pay day.

    That above statement is from Novak on Twitter, no a good chuck hasn’t received a big snow, yes places around Albert Lea to Austin to Rochester like I said before will do well that’s where the snow has been going strong since the start but that’s not where the forecast of 6-8” from the NWS was all day.

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  89. NWS issued a Strong update.
    ..HISTORIC WINTER STORM SHOULD LEAD TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL BY
    WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...

    .Two primary rounds of snow are expected. The first will continue
    through tonight. Accumulations of 4 to 8 inches by Wednesday
    morning. Round two is more widespread and continuous, and will
    begin Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday with an
    additional 8 to 18 inches expected. Total snow accumulations will
    range from 14 to 24 inches, with the best chance for the higher
    end totals along a west to east axis from southwest Minnesota
    through east central Minnesota and into west central Wisconsin.
    This is expected to reach the top 5 heaviest snow storms for many
    locations.

    The worst conditions will be Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
    morning, and a Blizzard Warning is in effect for areas south of
    I-94 and west of I-35. Heavy snow will combine with northeast
    wind gusts of 35 mph across the region, to around 45 mph in
    western and southern Minnesota. This will lead to significant
    blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions in open areas.
    Some drifts may be several feet deep, making travel nearly
    impossible.

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  90. Snow starting to intensity again hopefully we can get a few more inches before the main wave arrives.

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  91. Ian Leonard just commented on his outside weather forecast that the snow accumulation is limited due to a fine crystal snow falling for hours, basically the intensity isn’t there.

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  92. Radar trends looking a bit more promising up this way now. Pretty intense update from the NWS. Let it snow!

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  93. I just walked my dog and got properly snowed on in south Minneapolis. It has certainly picked up. If this keeps going into the later night we could see something closer to 3” maybe? But it is really hard to read the radar — this band seemed to
    pop up out of nowhere.

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    1. Haha @Dave was just going to say the same….just took the pup out and it’s snowing pretty good with a solid 3-4” on the ground here in GV, don’t know what’s all this chatter about a dud and intensity? I’ll be honest I haven’t been glued to a radar or a window but the forecast to me looks on track if this snow continues all night.
      See you all in the a.m.

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  94. Per a local Twin Cities station (9) SO FAR: Plymouth got 4”; 4" at Chanhassen; 4.1 at the MSP airport; CoCoRaHS has one report of 4.8" in Maple Grove; 3.7" at one location in Bloomington. Add another 8-12" for round 2 plus that doesn't count what falls today with a Trace to 2" and another 2-4" as it winds down tomorrow after tonight's snow...... so we will still have some memorable totals to talk about. It's been fun/educational (sometimes) reading all the posts on her.LET IT SNOW!!!! Keep dancing, PWL.

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  95. Cody M on 9 says we could still match the Metrodome buster, but this storm is a 60-hour event, and other storms (don't count '91) sometimes piled up faster in less time. Stay safe everyone. Patience.

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  96. Thanks for the update, WeatherGeek. I am in Plymouth/Maple Grove. I just measured in multiple locations sheltered from the wind and came up with an even 5 inches with each measurement. The NWS predicted 4-8 inches for Round 1, so they were right. As a snow junkie, I of course wish we got the 8! It appears a steady snow band has set up not too far south of the south metro. For my area, the NWS is calling for 2-4 inches today (starting after 12PM), 7-11 inches tonight and 2-4 inches tomorrow. If that comes to fruition it will place my area at 16 inches total on the low end. Let's see what happens. Let it snow!! Let it snow!!

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    1. Yes, I'm not so far away from your area in the grand scheme of things. There is a great photo meme going around FB of a tree with different signs and arrows pointing this way and that with previous storm totals / measuring points from Halloween '91, the domebuster, etc., to see where this one ends up for the Twin Cities. However, the wind as you say is definitely blowing the snow around. Thanks for the update from your area.

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  97. the 4.1 at the airport tracks with what I see in southeast minneapolis. hard to tell because of blowing around. Not the over-producer I was hoping for but it got to a respectable amount to shovel.

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    1. Yes, it's a good start with more to come. Sometimes it's hard to be patient, ha ha. PWL better keep up his dancing. Sixty hours is a long-duration event for sure.

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  98. As with others, I set myself up for disappointment when I see the 4-7 inch range for round 1 and only get 3-4". Still, not complaining. NWS still publishing 11-16" for the metro with round 2. Can anyone post updated computer models from this morning?

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  99. I had a couple of snowdrifts from last nights snow - one area which had been snow free now has 6+ inches and about 3ish inches outside my front door (which was also snow free and did not get snowy during the previous snows this year). Things could get interesting here tonight!

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  100. 4.5” in GV, I like many others wished we got the higher end of the snow but it just didn’t work out that way, but still fell within the 4-8” range. Just cleared all that and took a peek at the radar and looks like the heavy snow is building and moving north down by the Iowa border. Here’s to hoping part two delivers on the high end and we climb the all time snow list.

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  101. 2nd stage - Snowfall (Kurhera) through Friday 2-24 00z

    GFS
    12z: 13.6

    ECMWF:
    06Z: 12.9

    GDPS:
    12Z: 11.3

    HRRR:
    12Z: 12.5

    HRW ARV:
    12Z: 16.9

    HRW FV3:
    12Z: 15.6

    HRW NSSL:
    12Z: 13.7

    NAM:
    12Z: 13.5

    NAM 3km:
    12Z: 10.5

    RDPS:
    12Z: 11.8

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  102. Thank you so much, DysonGuy. Any guesses on the 'most accurate' of the bunch? Of course I'm hoping for a high total so we can push into 'top five.' Thanks again for posting these numbers.

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  103. Checking the NDFD / NBM which is the data that weather.gov uses to generate the text and for the meteograms. For KMSP 12z run:

    Today: 1.3"
    Tonight: 7.1"
    Thursday: 2.1"
    Total: 10.5

    I have noticed that the NDFD/NBM has been hovering on the lower end of the forecast ranges the entire storm though came out fairly accurate for the snow total from yesterday afternoon / last night (4.5" forecast, received 4.1 at MSP as of 6am)

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    1. 1.3 inches for this afternoon seems very low. The band of snow is practically here and looking quite mighty and continuing to intensity rapidly.

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  104. What a coincidence….first flakes I witnessed yesterday was 1:50p and now again today for round 2!

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  105. Novak has upped the snow totals across the metro with all of us in the solid 10-14" band because he says this wave is intensifying as of 1 p.m. (FB) It's been snowing in St Louis Park for about 45 minutes now.

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  106. Although yesterday he had the south metro in a '14 to 18" band' but that is the weather.......... changing all the time.

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  107. Snow really starting to pick up in the south metro and continuing to intensity.

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  108. Breezy with very light snow inside the northwest loop since 2PM. Moderate bands of snow approach 394, but then dissipate.

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  109. It's been pouring snow like crazy in SLP. My BP just went up 100 points reading all the folks on the STRIB message board saying this storm is a bust, a waste of cancelled school, that we are fools for putting the Guard on standby and to shut down and keep people home and safe......... very, very frustrating. I know you will all say, 'Don't read that stuff, then.' I did get short with some and wrote comments back, but I'll have to see if they get in or not. For some who were decrying us all as babies, I wrote, 'Say that again tomorrow when this is all done.' Now, snowstorm, back me up, please. :+) Thank you.

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    1. I’ll play along, school should have never closed today, not for 3-5” of snow overnight and an expected break today in the forecast. When was the last time we closed for that amount?, come on this is Minnesota. So now I lose a days pay because I haven’t earned PTO yet at my new job so that my kiddos have supervision. The snow for today just started an hour or so ago and is extremely light as @Schnee described, school could have easily been in session, as for tomorrow probably not if the forecast verifies, but I’m speaking on today only.

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    2. Thank you for your comment. Schools have been burned in the past for being open when snowmageddon occurs; my eldest and I are both single moms and have had to deal with school closings before and today has NOT been easy for her, but this is preferable to the ensuing mess; my grandkid's dad has already fallen this week at work for his outdoor/delivery job and hit his head as did two co-workers and he said today he saw a tanker slide sideways as he crawled at 20 mph to work; so yes, 'schools COULD have' but meteorologists do the best they can, school bosses remember the times they've been burned, and while I could walk to a neighborhood school as a kid in MN, those days are gone for many, many people. I see both sides of today. I am sorry you lost a day's pay. My eldest also is on probation with a new job, just came off sick leave, and had a ton of meetings today with bosses who do not have children, but so be it. I am sorry for what happened to you today, Mom of 3. I hope when your kids wake up tomorrow they see a nice white wall of snow. And: I hope we are dug out by Friday because the decision to close on Friday, too..... that one I do not understand as of yet unless Mpls and St Paul truly believed that something equal to Halloween 1991 was going to happen. I had an extra child stranded with me for three days in that storm. Take care.

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  110. Checking radar now. It's not only highway 394. The radar shows heavy snow bands make it north to the border of the southern metro loop and then weaken considerably. Dry air in place over the metro?

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    1. Yes, the radar appears 'blank' with no precip in the northern half of Hennepin Co. right now. :+(

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  111. I've been watching the satellite and precip loop all day. The southern edge of the precip is at the Iowa border and continues to move north. I don't think there's any way to get a foot of snow in the metro if you don't stay in the precip band for the duration. Time will tell.

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  112. Long time listener, first time caller here. I am located at the 94-494 interchange in Maple Grove (Arbor Lakes area). We have had some pockets of extremely light snow over the past hour or so, but it has all but stopped now. The radar shows the snow evaporating in this area. The NWS changed our forecast from 2-4 inches this afternoon to 1-3 inches and increased tonight's forecast from 7-11 inches to 8-12 inches. Someone mentioned dry air. Maybe there is some dry air up here the system needs to overcome before we get steady moderate and heavy snow? Maybe that is the reason for the slight forecast change? Just a guess.

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  113. What a bummer dry air causing havoc for the metro core and points north. Another disappointment in the cards?

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  114. Not a disappointment in Woodbury at least, snowing like crazy! Probably picked up 2 inches in the last hour.

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  115. @Davin, looks like it is snowing heavily south and east of St. Paul. I am watching Kare 11. They just said 8-12 inches tonight for the Twin Cities metro. This morning the forecast was 11-16, then 10-15, now 8-12.....

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    1. 8-12 tonight on top of the almost 5 at Chan as of 1 p.m. (per kstp) on top of what is falling right now prior to tonight is still a pretty decent snow total. That will be 15+ even 'lowballing' the 'low ceiling.' It's sad to see folks so disappointed, though. :+( I'm still happy. It's snowing!

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  116. its coming down nicely here. 6, 8 or 14 inches I am pretty happy to be back to this after the recent freeze/thaw/rain.

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  117. Smells an awful lot like the B word on the north metro side thus far.

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    1. So far yes. Sort of like a #1 draft pick who makes it to the majors, but gets off to a slow start. Hopefully he starts realizing his potential during the second half of the season. We'll see.

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  118. Nws is still calling for 12-18 for the north metro 6:00pm-6:00am. That’s a lot of snow in 12 hours!

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  119. Radar appears to be showing dark green bands of snow starting well south of the metro literally drying up as they move north towards and over the metro. Can anyone in the south metro confirm that?

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  120. I wonder whether some of the dry arctic air just north of us is getting wrapped into the storm? Northern MN and North Dakota are extremely cold. I saw several readings this morning in ND in the negative mid 20’s. They are experiencing several days in a row up there with below zero high temperatures.

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  121. Not looking good at all, fine crystal snow not big flakes you’re not adding 12+ like this, too much dry air. Not good!

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  122. One of the tv weather people said rain on the south end of the system could pull moister and totals. Add the cold dry air at the top

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  123. The NWS has said that there is no proof that Thunderstorms south of a northern winter storm do any such thing.

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  124. Well everyone jumped on me when I said yesterday that the model moved the system south and look what's happening... im calling it a bust, not saying 10 inches of snow isn't alot. But when they were saying 22 or more and now we're down to 10 someone deserves some blame....

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    1. Thing is system didn’t go south it’s just under performing.

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    2. You're not calling it a bust, but someone deserves blame.

      Whatever.

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  125. Looking at the surface observation page from the Storm Prediction Center, it shows a well saturated surface near the east metro showing 21 temps over 18 dew points. At Duluth it shows temps at 16 and dew points at 5, a very dry air mass. It also showing north eastern winds over Lake Superior advecting to the north metro, for the north metro the snow has to over come the dry air, from the central metro south, this thing looks awesome.

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  126. Let’s not write any obituaries just yet. I’ve seen situations like this where the storm did in fact drastically underperform, but I have also seen situations where storms got off to a slow start only to rally later and surprise a lot of people. I’m not saying I know what the outcome will be. To use the sports analogy someone posted, I’m willing to be patient with the draft pick to see what he is really going to do.

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  127. Here come the pitchforks, and the damn storm isn't even done. As usual, anything less than three feet is a bust. So typical of this place.

    You try predicting a snowstorm.

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    1. Exactly.. so many people expect 2+ ft snowstorms or else its a "bust". If you want a snowpack to last you into April move to Caribou, Maine. Otherwise stop calling it a bust before a storm is even close to over.

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    2. It would maybe just be a good idea to avoid words like "historic" and "record-breaking" going into a storm. It's one thing to stress that we will get a lot of snow - it's another to go full Snowpocalypse. They caused the schools to close today and Friday, for Pete's sake. The forecasters and media set it up for a bust in the public's eyes unless every aspect of the storm hits the top of the scale. Of course our fine weather people can't control the weather, but they can control the hype.

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    3. To be fair, if MSP picks up over 13 inches of snow it would be the largest February snowstorm so it would be historic.

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    4. I agree. I think many of those same people Davin referenced would be very happy with a 6-10 snowstorm if that is what was anticipated and predicted. I think it’s an issue of expectations. Hype, storm potential, weather model runs, TV, etc. create expectations. It’s human nature to feel a degree of disappointment when expectations are not met. Growing up I had a friend who was a straight A student. My friend had a sibling that could barely pass a grade. My friend got an A- on a report card one time while their sibling had D’s and F’s. My friend’s parents were very upset with my friend, but not with the sibling. They said they didn’t have the same expectations of the sibling as they did of my friend.

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  128. Radar is now showing a lot of dark green bands in every direction of the metro, especially south to west to north! Come on rookie, go yard or at least hit a rocket off the left centerfield wall!

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  129. Don’t know why the word “bust” is so offensive. I personally was hoping for scarface size piles of snow. Anything less is a bust. Does it really matter though?

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