Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
The bounty of the season may continue — in some abundance — later this week. Track it here.
There’s a 30% or greater of snow from Wednesday THRU Sunday!Let’s Go!!LETS BREAK THIS DAMN RECORD!
PWL we need you to dance 24/7. I just checked with MinnPost's article on top snowfalls/top seasons/etc... here we go: 1) 1983-84: 98.6 inches; 2) 1981-82: 95 inches; 3) 1950-51: 88.9; 4) 2010-11: 86.6; 5) 1916-17: 84.9; 6) 1991-92: 84.1; 7) 1961-62: 81.3; 8) 1951-52: 79; 9)1966-67: 78.4; 10) 2017-18: 78.3. So there you have the top ten. Through last night, we stand at 74.2 at MSP. Can we break 98.6? As I always say, time will tell. How are the models doing for this week's big event? And thank you for the new thread, Bill.
@WeatherGeek it’s 74.7!And yes we are going to break 98.6” because ALL the snowlovers on here is going to will it to happen!Both my shovels are sitting outside still which means Mother Nature we are open for snow business!
Sounds good Bigdaddy. I was looking at the NOAA site for totals through last night, so I'm glad to know it's inching up. Thank you for correcting me.
This is my hope with the incoming waves/storms of snow:- Wed night 2+-Thurs night/Fri. 8+-Sat. night/Sun 3+If we just get the low number in all these snowfalls that still adds up to just over a foot which means we still have about 2/3rds of March to go and April to pick up the rest. Let’s Go!!I just wish it was just a bit colder with temps in the high 20’s during the daylight hours and not these 30-35° highs, because the March sun angle will make it hard on accumulation.We shall see!
The Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the metro: Thursday noon til Friday morning. Maybe 5-11 inches? Five seems so 'little'...... 11 sounds so nice. What do you all think? That's a tight timeline.
Winter Storm Watch for 4-7 inches? What happened to the big numbers? Chris Shaffer said last night on WCCO 7-14 inches. Also, we got 6 inches a day ago with a Winter Weather Advisory.
So much for the big storm models and Paul Douglas were talking about just a couple of days ago. The latest Euro and GFS have really dropped snow totals for Thursday/Friday. Both models are reflecting 4-6 inches. That's what we got 36 hours ago. This big massive storm is slowly turning into a "go home folks, nothing to see here" type of event. I notice the temperature forecast for Thursday through next Monday has steadily increased the past couple days from highs in the upper 20's to highs in the mid-30's. Neither of these factors is conducive to breaking the seasonal snow record.
Bummer. Thanks for the updates. Novak's map does have us 'on the edge' of expect trouble with the heaviest looking east, so maybe it continues to nudge east?
Even Paul Douglas writes today: "If it's going to snow, then let's set records." 74.7; currently we are in 13th place for snowiest winters since 1884. Let. It. SNOW!
Too warm and low ratios = reduced snow totals. Plenty of moisture but it wont be cold enough for it to pile up.
La Nina seems to giveth and taketh away this season. I love the above average snowfall, but I hate the warm temperatures that continue robbing us of big snowfalls (including the rain events in January/February). Yes, before anybody says anything, I recognize the metro had a big snowfall the first of January and the end of February. Although, but-for the warm temperatures we would have had several more. I know there are other forces in play besides La Nina (e.g. MJO stuck in the warm phase most of this season), but this has not seemed like a typical La Nina winter. I am willing to bet, however, that we will have a typical El Nino winter next season, unfortunately. It seems anymore the odds are always overwhelmingly in favor of warmth.
I totally agree. Those two big rain events (I remember at least two).... if that had been snow like 'in the olden days'.... we would definitely have a record-breaking winter season for snow.
Most all models are bringing Thursday/Friday system way south into Iowa, NWS jumped the gun with their Winter Storm watches, they will be pulled back n downgraded. As for the seasonal record that ain’t happening too much rain storms and misses this winter, just like this miss.
It is incredible you can sit here and say there has been "too much misses this winter". It has been a very snowy and eventful winter at that. As for the system on Thursday, its not only that it trended south but also the system as a whole as sped up considerably. Less time to develop and grab moisture out of the gulf of Mexico.
@Anonymous(2:40), next time put up a name. Not incredible at all, I am speaking on attaining the record, due to several misses or lower snowfall(including this Thursday)AND the two rainstorms is the reason we won’t hit the record(my opinion of course), but never did I say it wasn’t snowy or eventful(January was boring after the big storm), just not record worthy.
The models sure have pulled back on snow totals for Thursday/Friday. It's looking more like a repeat of Sunday night, generally 3-5? inches of wet snow. No blockbuster for us (metro).
KARE 11 just said Thursday’s storm is trending south, possibly only 2-4 inches for the metro. The most would be in the southern burbs. Bummer!!
How quickly things change. Early this morning the NWS put out a graphic showing 6-13 inches for the entire metro. I echo the sentiment of BUMMER!!
Thought Process:Here’s the deal weather folks….the forecast still has chances of snow or snow likely for the next 5 days….so conceivably we can be adding up inches thru Sunday! Now I know yes it’s a bummer that forecasted totals went down and the storm shifted but like I said it’s still going to snow and whenever snow is in the air funny or weird/unexpected things can happen, over performing snowfalls are not uncommon(just like with Sunday night’s snowfall when the SW/W metro got stuck in a heavier band that produced 5-7” whereas everywhere else had 2-4”)…..so let’s let it play out and see where we end up, I’m hoping we are left with 14”-18” still to get for the record after Sunday as I’m still confident we still have one big snowstorm left in the season either later in March or April….I know it’s optimistic but we’re too close to not be.Let’s break a damn record!!!
My point forecast totals (WxUnderground and NWS) ticked up by an inch overnight for Thursday’s system. Is it drifting back north again?
Mr. Novak put out his snow totals map at noon today. The TC Metro is just in a 2-4" band, sadly. La Crosse eastward (6-8+") and a chunk of SW Mn/Eastern SD (4-6+") are the snowfall winners on Novak's map.
I’ve been watching it snow for over two hours now, at times at a very good intensity and yet nothing to show for it accept everything is wet. White rain is all it is! Bad timing, if you don’t get snow at night at this time of year especially with these temperatures then you’re not accumulating anything. We be lucky to hit 80” this year, sorry @Bigdaddy as much as your willing it it won’t happen!
White rain sucks! Might as well just be rain, nothing like watching snow fall and not accumulate.
Aw, we are now downgraded to a winter weather advisory in the Twin Cities. A 'mere' 4-6" but heck, we will take what we get as we crawl up the winter season snow totals record list, right?
Damn right! Let’s break a record!
Snow is coming down really hard now….big flakes and we’re FINALLY accumulating!!
Looking at the potentials this morning, I'm going to dream for the higher numbers, Bigdaddy. We have some nice snow chances coming through the metro through Sunday even though all the forecasters I watched last night were in the "1-2 inches" range for both today/tonight and then again for Saturday/Sunday. The higher ends on NOAA for the days = 13". So, anything is possible, right? I can't wait to see what falls.
P.S. MSP airport is up to 75.3" now, if my eyes are reading that correctly.
You stole my thunder @WeatherGeek, but yes MSP measured .6 with yesterdays snow, I know not much of a thunder but it all counts. Just goes to show you that would have been easily an 2-4” snowfall had it happened at night, it snowed at a pretty good intensity a few times and by my observations for a good 6-8hrs…that intensity and duration yesterday was NOT forecasted, that’s why I say when snows in the air anything is possible.Ok so we press on now with 75.3”…let’s see what the next 4 days bring!
I’m still here! I’m enjoying reading all the passion for breaking the record! I am 100% in! I was hoping to post after I saw some of the snow predictions go up, so I could brag that my dancing was paying off. But with two good chances of snow over the next four days, it will be fun to see a steady snow falling for six of seven days. Without any rain being mentioned, and getting mixed in, there is always potential for the high-end! Doing my high end dance! Bring it!!!
Sounds like a plan, Bigdaddy and Plymouth Weather Lover. The morning news showed snow in the south metro already.............and my two fake owls out on the balcony railing are waiting and watching for snow.
Too bad the official reporting is at the MSP airport. They recorded .6 inches yesterday while here at my house we picked up 1.5 inches. I measured the fresh snow over the crusted icy snow in several level areas. Every measurement was 1.5 inches. The trees and bushes had a nice fresh blanket of snow, and the driveway and street eventually became completely snow covered as well, despite the temperature being around 32-34 degrees. As Bigdaddy said, it was snowing at a pretty good clip for some time. As for today and this weekend, I keep hoping the heavier snow axis comes the way of the metro. For today's system the GFS has increased its totals over the past handful of runs and is now showing 8 inches for the metro. The GFS had been holding steady at 4-5 inches for multiple runs going back the past couple of days. The Euro and HRRR show 3 inches and the NAM shows 4 inches. Not the whopper we were all hoping for earlier this week, but every little bit counts towards the record. I believe we officially need another 9.2 inches to break into a tie at number 5 all-time snowiest winters! Let it Snow!! Let it Snow!!
Thanks for the updates/computer numbers. It's snowing in St Louis Park, so that is a good sign when it wasn't supposed to be snowing, yet. Yes, let it snow. We've had enough rain this winter. Let is snow.
Nice steady snow just started falling here in Plymouth/Maple Grove. Fingers crossed!
Jinx; just posted it's snowing in SLP, too.
It's really coming down now! It's a snowglobe outside!
The snow is 'finer' now in SLP v the big flakes an hour ago. Within the past half hour or so, Novak posted on FB that 'today's SNOW will be difficult to measure due to melting/compacting. Hence, don't expect big numbers but certainly enough to make things slick by evening' and he still has the metro in a 2 to 4 inch band.
All it is AGAIN is white rain, temps are just above freezing and it’s snowing at the wrong time of the day AGAIN! You won’t measure much.
Let’s remember that the main energy of this storm is well as south of the Minneapolis area. If we had more energy over our heads, it would stick no matter how warm it was. It would stick and then compact.
Novak just posted this: "If the temperatures were a few degrees colder and/or if the timing of the snow was overnight, this would be a much more impressive snowfall later today." He's right. So goes the risks of March snowfalls.
I'm trying to put a positive spin on today's snow. Some might say it's the perfect snow...sticking to the ground, but not to the roads, driveways or sidewalks? That just saves us the effort of removing the snow from the roads, driveways and sidewalks, which we would do if the temperatures were colder.
Couldn’t agree more, Tim!! 👏 👏 👏
I don't understand all the complaints and comments of 'white rain'. It's been pretty at times when it's coming down harder and I love me a snowy day. All the dirt from the week of melting is nicely covered up! I'm in SW Minneapolis and it looks like between last night and today we've received about an inch. So puts us with just under 3 inches of breaking into the Top 10. Bring it!
That's the spirit!! :+) I guess it is just because some folks dream of 'what could have been.' "If only" we had not had two big rain events this winter, "if only" it were a couple of degrees colder today like Mr Novak says, "if only." But you are right, SWMpls Girl. The optimistic side of me is with you, definitely. And it's been pretty steady here in SLP since around 8:30 this morning.
I'm too am excited it's snowing. I'm always excited to see snow, but, yes there's a but here, today really has so far been the equivalent of white rain. It's sticking to the ground only, but not much has fallen. The roads, walkways, etc. are just wet, which is good for commuters and others, like those walking their dogs for instance. My guess is MSP has measured very little accumulation today, despite it snowing all afternoon. That is unfortunate as some of us are hoping to break the season snow record. To be honest, I hope we break the record, but I will not put any money on it (sorry, Bigdaddy). It's just too warm, and except possibly for a day here and there it's only going to get warmer as we head deeper into March. As others have said, if it wasn't for the rainstorm in January and the two rainstorms in February, we would have already broken the record. If it wasn't for the "just a touch too warm" temperatures, such as today, we would be adding to the record. WeatherGeek said it best..."If"..."If"..."If". Our only hope at getting into the top 10 all time snowiest metro winters is for snow to fall at night. Maybe we will get a couple inches tonight and a couple inches Saturday night? Here's hoping so!
I thought that the NWS somehow measured snowfall even if it's not sticking well. So that while it doesn't have a big visual effect, it's still adding to the seasonal tally. (Bill)
Bill, the NWS tries to measure snow fall in 6 hrs increments, say at midnight and 6am. The 6 hour window accounts for any compaction. They will take their 6 hrs measurement, than clean the area and come back 6 hours later and measure it again until snowfall stops
As of 4 hours ago 75.7 inches @ MSP per the NWS. In the last couple hours intensity has picked up (no more white rain) and the snow covered surfaces are looking less bumpy. Streets are still clear but that's OK. Some sidewalks are snowy. 2.5 inches to break into the Top 10!
The snow is sticking with no problem now. What a difference just two degrees makes!
Snowing and accumulating at a good clip now….roads are an absolute mess with the thin layer of melted snow now icy with snow on top.Drive carefully!!(hopefully MSP is accumulating)
As of 1:16 a.m.: MSP got 2.1 inches, so the current total as of that time this morning = 77.4. Chanhassen got 3.4 inches as of 1:16 a.m. and has a total of ...... drum roll...... 87.3 inches!!!!!!! Well, we continue to crawl, fellow snow lovers. Tomorrow we have a chance for 4-6" in the metro.......here's hoping. Stay safe out there today on slippery paths and roads.
Update: per one local weather person, MSP is now at 2.7 inches from yesterday to this morning, so we are .2 away from 10th place on the top ten snowiest winter list. He's saying we won't get that much from the next system, but hey, one can keep on hoping!!!! I think he said Chan has 4" now from this system that is winding down.
And from Paul Douglas: "According to NOAA, today is the 101st consecutive day of 1"+ snow on the ground in the Twin Cities. If we reach 114 days of 1"+ snow depth we'll be on the Top 10 list there as well. It's the longest duration of snowcover at MSP since 2001."
A beautiful calm chilly morning (26 degrees) with fresh snowcover! I wish it had been in the 20's yesterday instead of 34ish. I believe if, no, when, we officially hit 80 inches tomorrow that will bring us into the top 6 snowiest Twin Cities winters? I think I read the Twin Cities officially has only had 5 seasons with 80 or more inches of snow? WeatherGeek, I'm a little puzzled by the comment you posted above with a local met (?) saying we won't get much snow tomorrow? I keep hearing we have a good shot at 4+ inches tomorrow.
Hi Schnee Meister; it was Keith M this morning early on Channel 9 in the metro. I'm hoping he is wrong, of course. :+)
Hi WeatherGeek, I too was wondering about the continuous days with snow cover. I looked at the MSP data that shows we have had at least an inch (really at least two inches, because only one day was it as low as an inch) of snow cover every day since November 30. We also had snow cover from November 15-23. Keep it coming! Let's break more snow records! I love it!
For the metro tomorrow the models (Euro, GFS, HRRR, NAM) are showing 2-6 inches. The NAM is the only model as low as 2 inches. Up here at the 494/94 split our point forecast is 4-6 inches.
NWS Twitter (as of 6AM this morning):MSP: 78.1" (11th most)Chanhassen NWS: 87.9"St Cloud: 70.4" (7th most)Eau Claire: 65" (16th most)
List of seasonal snowfalls for the Twin Cities (source: NWS)https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQUDOtXzxA4l8wp-3TXNPX_1u_5Wp_sjo7Foa4BxBROVfqIse2n42cX-GPp7N5v7a-gR1VzwEbDlCRx/pubhtml#
Very cool link! Thanks for posting, Joe.
Consecutive days of snow cover in the Twin Cities. Scroll down a little bit to see the list.https://m.startribune.com/california-continues-to-export-big-storms/600257030/?clmob=y&c=n&clmob=y&c=n
I secretly cheer for another snowstorm like in April 2018.
The lion’s share of snow Thursday went south of the metro. The lion’s share today will go north of the metro. That’s not how you break snow records. Maybe the metro can officially make it to 80 inches before the season ends?
Thanks for your input @Tim, but it all adds up! Oh and today is not the last day of the season nor will it be the last snow of the season!
Thanks for the posts, Tim and Bigdaddy. Just checked out NOAA and lo and behold, MSP airport got .6 of snow yesterday. Now they are 'officially' at 78 inches with Joe posting 78.1 a before this post. Little by little, every little bit helps. Chanhassen also recorded .6 yesterday, so they are now at 87.9 inches. Bring it, whatever we can get today/tonight/into tomorrow morning.
Also I’m sure a few know already but something is brewing for next Thursday/Friday timeframe. All 3 major models have a storm…just what flavor will it be? Right now looks like a rain to snow scenario for the metro. Some are showing all snow others all rain and others both. We shall see what that brings….
WeatherGeek & Bigdaddy, I agree that it all adds up. I am still rooting for us to somehow break the record too! My point is time is running out and we can’t really afford to miss out on opportunities for significant snow like we did Thursday and likely will again today. I analogize it to being late in the fourth quarter and kicking field goals when we need touchdowns.
Nice moderate snow falling now at the 494/94 split!
NWS is saying no snow in the metro until late morning. Given it’s already snowing in the metro at 9 AM, I hope it’s a good sign for us snow fans!
More white rain today!
True, but the roads/sidewalks are way more covered and slick than the other day when stuff melted on contact. I've been out slip sliding around both on roads and on foot. You're right, though, that there may be some rain mixed in with snow later or tonight per NWS.
Love all the snow! White snow!Let’s break those records! Let’s get the number one spot and enjoy every second of it!Bring it!!
@Tim, nice analogy with the fourth quarter. Nobody loves snow more than I do, but it’s almost mid-March so this season’s writing is on the wall.
So true. I have NOAA skywarn storm spotter training this coming week, and that makes me think of 'not snow.'
I know it’s early in the game(and people are tracking todays snow) but don’t look now a major snowstorm is forecasted by all 3 major long range models for Thursday into Saturday, in fact both the GFS and EURO are showing 15+”….I know I know it’s early and great eye candy and a lot can and will change, but it’s definitely something worth watching and tracking and keeping an eye on, especially when people see 40°+ on Wednesday and think here comes the great melt.As I continue to say….“Let’s break a damn record”
Yes! I saw the same models and LET'S GO!! Let's break the record and tell everyone we know that we lived through it. We can do it!Doing the "Break the Dang Record" Dance. I may be dancing for a while, but it will be worth it. Dancing has begun!!Bring it!!!
As of 4pm KMSP reported 0.6" of snow so far today, taking us to 78.6", officially breaking into the top 10 snowiest winters on record. Currently at #9. Its been snowing fairly heavily since 4pm, maybe we will move up to #8 with the midnight update.
Thanks for the update. I see we have a winter weather advisory in the metro now, too, until 4 a.m. ... turning the clocks ahead an hour.
Tony per below we are in 7th place, now. Let it snow!
Hot off the press as of 6:33 p.m.: From the NWS FB page:Here are the snowfall totals from 12PM this afternoon through 6PM evening: MSP: 1.2 inchesChanhassen NWS: 1.3 inchesSt Cloud: No report from official site.Eau Claire: No report from official site.Updated season totals as of 6pm today:MSP: 79.8" (7th most)Chanhassen NWS: 89.2"#mnwx #wiwx
Although as a p.s.: what the NWS is reporting re: 79.8 doesn't put us in 7th place according to a post from Paul Huttner. But hey, let's wait and see the totals in the morning. Little by little........
81.3” is 7th place. Let’s blow pass it!!
As of a bit past midnight, we are at 80" on the nose at MSP NOAA. Bit by bit by bit.......we have crawled into 8th place. We won't get 7th today, but maybe by the end of the week?
More white ran today!
I had 6.5 inches at 2 pm today when I left the house. It's been snowing quite a bit since I left, probably another inch or so. I'm 7 miles straight east of Stillwater.
Ended up with another 1.5 inches between 2 pm and 6 pm for a total of 8 inches.
Big eye candy snow for the end of the week is steadily disappearing from the Euro and GFS. Bummer
You shouldn't believe those type of totals to begin with. Euro was showing 15-18 inches of snow which is obviously too much. Cut the totals in half that far out and you get a more realistic outcome. 6-10+ inches.
Maybe the "eye candy" has disappeared, but the snowstorm is still there. Both models (Euro and GFS) still have between 9-14 inches right over the metro for later this week. Bring it!!
Chanhassen now stands at 90.1 inches; MSP now stands at 80.1 inches as of 4 p.m. today. S-l-o-w-l-y... ... ... and Mr Novak says on his FB page today: "...all eyes are focused on a massive STORM system that is poised to strike the region later this week. With falling temps/Canadian air.... let's see what happens. Yes, PWL: "Bring it."
New thread for late week storm possibility (Bill)