Thanks for the new thread. MSP has 9.5 inches of snow so far and Chan has 11.4 if I am reading their site numbers correctly, so not a bad start on top of finally getting a bunch of cold air in here. Let's see what the conga/clipper line brings us. It's looking good for more snow. I know it's not always coming as the big storms we love, but it's still adding up. Let it SNOW.
Unfortunately, I am not as bullish on the clipper train. So far they have underperformed or mostly missed us in the metro. Yesterday’s 1-2 inch prediction resulted in half an inch. Monday’s clipper is supposed to miss the metro, except for flurries. Tuesday’s system is forecasted to be a mix (of course). See today’s clipper as yet another example. My prediction from the clipper train is half an inch to an inch here and there for a total of 3 inches. Hope I’m wrong. I like the consistent cold air. The metro was snow starved the past two winters. Just hope we don’t get snow starved again this season for a different reason, despite the cold air.
Joe, I appreciate your prediction and reasoning regarding the snow forecast for the metro. I too hope you are wrong! I love snow (my name means Snow Master in German!). However, I am in your camp until/unless the snow gods give me a reason to think otherwise. So far this season Iowa has been hitting the snowfall jackpot. That will happen again today. Let is Snow!
I would define shafted differently than what MSP has received. We only in the early part of December and we are doing well - solid snow cover and cold air in place. We will see how things play out, but these regular snow events really add up.
My prediction is that we will officially have 25 inches by December 31. That doesn't that will be the snowpack - but will have received 25 inches by then.
I will be doing the New Year's Even 25+ inch snow dance!
The models keep shifting Tuesday’s storm farther south and putting the metro in all snow. However, the NWS keeps raising temperatures and calling for a mix for Tuesday. I’m not a meteorologist. I am confused by the NWS forecast. Let’s cut to the chase and consult a true expert. What say you, Novak?
One of us who are on FB (are you on it, Joe? because I know some aren't) may need to post it there for Novak. It's a great question. I don't think he's put anything out, yet, for Tuesday. Nope, just checked and he hasn't. It was great seeing him on the other thread .... he gets busy over on FB and may not see your question here, Joe. Let me know if you're not on that platform because maybe I can post it to him when he puts out his predictions for the next few days.
Joe, Mr. Novak posted this answer to your question '7 hours ago' per FB so around 9 p.m. last night: Novak Weather QUOTE: "Well, we would need more context/info to answer this question. However, my assumption is that the NWS expects more of surge of warmth ahead of the system due to the strong jet dynamics. However, they did emphasize that they are waiting for the storm's energy to come ashore before committing to a more confident forecast. As far as "models keep shifting the storm further south". I haven't seen much evidence to support that comment. For the most part, guidances haven't move much at all. However, I would not be shocked if the storm's track were to shift a bit further south." I thanked him for the response. NWS is still reporting one big sloppy mess around the metro.
Latest GFS (18z) run continues the trend of showing the heaviest snow band (4-6 inches) running from North Dakota southeast through the TC metro on Tuesday. Looking forward to hearing Novak’s input. The last 4 model runs have shown this trend.
Novak just posted on FB at around 7 p.m. Part of the metro is in 'moderate' (anticipate problems) but not the south metro. He does note: "Any subtle shift in this storm's track will make a world of a difference for many in so. MN & northern WI." I posted Joe's question. Maybe he will pay a visit over here. Let is SNOW!
WeatherGeek, thanks for posting my question on Facebook. So if I’m reading the information correctly this morning, Saint Paul might get half a foot of snow and Minneapolis will get nothing but a rain snow mix? How is it the Twin Cities is literally often on the dividing line? Why isn’t it Little Falls or Mankato, for example? Very frustrating!
You're welcome. I hear you. The forecast keeps changing, too... today there have been a lot of 'flurries' so far, and now there is a potential for 'inches' v more rain around the metro tomorrow and tomorrow night. Let me see if Novak has posted any updates today on FB. Oh: about noon today he 'subtly massaged' (his words) the travel impact map he always posts because there is a slight shift south for the strong clipper tomorrow PM. North metro = high ' alter travel plans' and rest of the metro 'moderate' meaning yeah, WINTER stuff mostly. The line as always is 'tight' and that's why above you are right that we seem to be on a dividing line. He says he is 'buying' the models putting forth around 5" in the metro. So let's see what happens. Let it snow!
Burst of some very intense snowfall right now! NWS going forecast for this snow burst was “less then half inch possible”. This will easily be 1-2” for anyone in this band of snow moving thru.
I just don’t see it and I hope I am dead wrong! Seems like each recent model run pushes it north. Even the HRRR and the NAM. I really trust Novak, but I am not seeing this one. I see slip and maybe 2 inches on the backside.
Damn! Never thought in a million years that PWL would be a downer vibe on a impending snow storm inside of 24hrs especially when his go to trusted meteorologist Novak has the core MSP metro squarely inside of the heaviest significant band! Definitely didn’t have this scenario on my December bingo card.
This will go down as one of the largest differences between models this close to a storm as I can think of. Euro, CMC and GFS have the snow bands nearly 75-100 miles further south than HRRR/NAM and this is less than 18 hours before the onset of the storm. I'm completely baffled....
It is very odd to see PWL with a new dance called the "Dead Wrong Dance"....... as of the wee hours today the forecast for the metro 'holds' with NWS and looking at the watches/warning maps, the metro 'just misses' the WSW posted as if it is hugging us. Blaine is in the WSW, for ex. It's the freezing rain/warmth that probably wrecks our snow totals, right? Phooey. Eight hours ago Mr. Novak still had the metro in a 6 to 8" band. Time will tell................stay safe as we slip, slide around. Let it SNOOOOWWWWWW.
I just saw that too. In the Plymouth/Maple Grove area the latest NAM run (06z) is now calling for 5 inches; Euro: 6 inches; GFS: 5 inches; HRRR: 3 inches; NAM 3KM: 3 inches. Pretty much the same amounts are reflected for Minneapolis, maybe an inch less on some models. Let the games begin!
While I wish we were in the heart of the heavy snow with little question of mixing, sleet, etc., being on the tight gradient line is really, really fascinating. This will be a BLAST to watch play out. A BLAST!!!
The HRRR is so interesting. I trust that one a lot, and it is such an outlier. HOWEVER, the 12z run is just coming in and it has moved closer to the Twin Cities.
It is clear that Plymouth (west) will get less than the northeast suburbs so it is hard to predict.
Some things I saw:
FOX9 (this morning) - 1-4 inches NWS (current) - 2-5 inches Weather.com (current for Plymouth) - 4-8 inches WCCO TV (last night) - 4-6 or more inches KSTP TV (last night) - 1-3 inches
And Nam 12z run is starting to come in and another big shift further south NWS is going to have a lot of explaining to do. Duluth? Complete bust they probably won't see more than an inch of snow yet NWS is forecasting significant snow up there. What a joke
In the Plymouth/Maple Grove area the latest NAM run (12z) is now calling for 6 inches (last run was 5 inches); Euro: 6 inches; GFS: 6 inches (last run was 5 inches); HRRR: 4 inches (last run was 3 inches); NAM 3KM: 5 inches (last run was 3 inches).
What local Twin Cities time do the next round of model updates come out? Any care to publish when they do? I appreciate PWL and Joe posting these during the storm for better insight.
Novak just posted this: "Short term guidance (CAMs) have finally come around to the idea of significant SNOW (Novak's emphasis) in the Twin Cities metro. In turn, confidence in my earlier forecasts have increased." The model (12z NAM 3km) shows 5.9 inches for Minneapolis. Novak said the snow should start around 2PM today, and he will have a live video at 3PM today.
What are the models showing? One met on local radio said it will switch over to drizzle for a few hours before it snows again. But there is no way I believe we only get two inches. I was out in it for a couple of hours and it must be 2+ already in many parts of the metro with the advisory not ending until 6 a.m. Big Snow Fan, do you think MSP will continue to be 'the main show'? That would be awesome. Bigdaddy, that would be so cool to have 6-8". I hope rain doesn't ruin it all. Thanks for the updates. And keep dancing, PWL.
I am a tad sad. NWS posts on FB: "Our office in Chanhassen measured 2.2" of snow at 6 PM. MSP airport had 2.6" -- Of course, snow is ongoing!" But they say another round of 'light snow' will occur later as the high winds come in. It sure seemed like there was more snow. They seem to be staying with low numbers.
So glad the clipper sank south so the metro stayed in all snow...and a lot of it! A solid 6-7 inches in the Maple Grove area. As for looking ahead, I am a little disturbed by the following statement from the NWS this morning regarding next week: "Besides the warmer weather, your shovels and snow blowers will get a break as well, with our next potential for precipitation after Saturday not coming until Thursday next week and it may be warm enough for this system where the predominate p-type we get is JUST PLAIN RAIN." [emphasis added]. WHAT??!!! Can't we have a normal, cold, snowy winter anymore?! Suffice to say, I hope the NWS is WRONG...again!
I totally agree with you, Joe. Paul Douglas noted on his Strib blog that we had the coldest first week of December since 2007! 'Bout time. I don't want to go back to the climate-changing warmth we've had in many seasons since then. Average normal highs next week are mid to high 20's and lows in the teens. Go away, rain potential and 'hot' temps, go far away. This is supposed to be Minne-snow-tah. I hope NWS is wrong, too.
I'm worried about surprises on Thursday as eastern MN & western WI will potentially be located in the sweet spot on the left front quad of a jet streak. Guidance isn't picking up on this yet from a QPF standpoint, but this should prove to be interesting as temps drop like a rock during the PM & winds pick-up.
Yeah, rain and flash freezing and high winds. Yuck, yuck, and yuck. Hopefully and indeed, maybe next time. Thanks for visiting again, Mr. Novak. Reminds me of the old days of the blog. Stay upright, everyone. It sure is slippery out there even before the thermometer plunges tomorrow.
Just saw Novak’s message regarding the “hot” (my word) dry weather pattern on the way. He said our snowpack will take a big hit over the next ten days. Brown ground by the first of the year? It wouldn’t surprise me. We got off to a great start to winter the first half of December. We had to know it wouldn’t last. Heaven forbid we actually ever have a real winter here again in the metro.
Novak posted MSP might challenge the Christmas Day record high of 54 degrees??!! What?? Where did that come from? I haven’t heard anyone mention temperatures next week any higher than the 30’s!
I can't find that post, Not That Bill..... he said that? Mid+ 50's? Holy Moly. I looked at my weather calendar, and that Christmas Day record was just two years ago. And yeah, Joe, we did get off to a decent start earlier this month. It's sad to see it melting away/rain last night and this morning. Stay safe everyone. Hoping for more snow...............
Let’s be clear that Novak only the only one that even hinted at the possibility of this type of measurable snowfall today several days ago! It’s coming down hard!
Novak Weather Live Updates. 11:58AM this morning on Facebook messenger app. “Record high @ MSP Int'l on Xmas day is 54°F. Don't be surprised if we threaten that figure.”
He also posted the following this morning at 10:56AM:
“Latest medium range model guidances are hinting at a relatively WARM Xmas & New Years holiday.”
“Our snowpack will continue to take a big hit over the next 10 days.”
Thanks, Not That Bill. I don't have the FB messenger app connection, so I miss those. I just see his regular posts that I follow. I appreciate the messenger updates. Keep us posted if possible. We don't even have much snowpack left around where I live. Thanks again.
Such a promising start to winter with the cold and snow and now this! I’ve been looking at the models the last week or so intently hoping those warm signals would go away and they haven’t and in some cases have grown bigger, easily 40’s Christmas Eve and Day, our snow pack will take a hit to the tune of I wonder if we’ll get a White Christmas, we may eek it out with the technical definition but it will be spotty dirty piles of snow around. Stock up on the blue juice next week could have a decent run of above freezing temperatures. Sucks!!
I echo your sentiments, Bigdaddy. I have been scouring the models and data looking for hope too. Why is it we can never have pretty things? It’s very disappointing and deflating to those of us who love winter. I just had a feeling things would do an about face soon. Winter was revving up and things were just going too well. This is when we should be building ice and a snowpack, not melting it away. Will this be our third consecutive ultra lame winter…I wouldn’t be surprised if the answer is yes.
The season started out great. Ironically, here we are three days from Christmas wondering if we will even have a white Christmas. Officially 3 inches was measured yesterday morning at MSP. It will be at least close to 40 degrees, if not warmer, today and Christmas Eve. We officially eke out an inch of snow for an official white Christmas? Smh
I see Novak is still pushing 50+ degrees at MSP airport this week??? I haven’t seen any guidance or heard anyone else predict temperatures any higher than 40 degrees this week, which is the prediction for Christmas Day.
Me either, Dave. It's so sad to see the beautiful snow melting away and seeing 'showers' in a forecast or hearing rain on the window pre-dawn. Some 'winter' once again after such a promising start. Maybe if enough of the snow that is hanging on melts..........Sad, sad, sad.
Hello folks, Merry Christmas to all my snow loving peeps out there! I know it’s been a little quiet and warm and melty in the weather department as of late, but we should eke out a White Christmas with still a few inches in and around the metro. Also looking out in the horizon tonight’s 00Z run of the EURO looked promising and potentially snowy as we open up the new year with that model showing not 1, not 2, but 3 snow systems the first week of the new year totaling 12-16” in and around the metro. Now obviously too soon for details on any numbers nor due I care at this point, but the fact it’s showing sensible active and snowy weather is what I’m interested in and here for. So in closing go enjoy your holiday, be merry, be festive, be safe and let’s hope Mother Nature kicks back into gear in the New Year!
Thank you for that encouragement, Big Daddy! I occassionally see things about storms coming up on FaceBook but this is way better! Merry Christmas to all us snow lovers. Bring it, New Year!
Bring it!! I will be doing the New Year's Snow Dance. It is one I just created and am working on learning it. I will have lots of time to practice over the newt week. We will see if it works!
Thanks for the new thread. MSP has 9.5 inches of snow so far and Chan has 11.4 if I am reading their site numbers correctly, so not a bad start on top of finally getting a bunch of cold air in here. Let's see what the conga/clipper line brings us. It's looking good for more snow. I know it's not always coming as the big storms we love, but it's still adding up. Let it SNOW.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, I am not as bullish on the clipper train. So far they have underperformed or mostly missed us in the metro. Yesterday’s 1-2 inch prediction resulted in half an inch. Monday’s clipper is supposed to miss the metro, except for flurries. Tuesday’s system is forecasted to be a mix (of course). See today’s clipper as yet another example. My prediction from the clipper train is half an inch to an inch here and there for a total of 3 inches. Hope I’m wrong. I like the consistent cold air. The metro was snow starved the past two winters. Just hope we don’t get snow starved again this season for a different reason, despite the cold air.
ReplyDeleteJoe, I appreciate your prediction and reasoning regarding the snow forecast for the metro. I too hope you are wrong! I love snow (my name means Snow Master in German!). However, I am in your camp until/unless the snow gods give me a reason to think otherwise. So far this season Iowa has been hitting the snowfall jackpot. That will happen again today. Let is Snow!
ReplyDeleteIowa is getting all the snow love. MSP getting shafted so far this winter
ReplyDeleteI would define shafted differently than what MSP has received. We only in the early part of December and we are doing well - solid snow cover and cold air in place. We will see how things play out, but these regular snow events really add up.
ReplyDeleteMy prediction is that we will officially have 25 inches by December 31. That doesn't that will be the snowpack - but will have received 25 inches by then.
I will be doing the New Year's Even 25+ inch snow dance!
Bring it!!!
The models keep shifting Tuesday’s storm farther south and putting the metro in all snow. However, the NWS keeps raising temperatures and calling for a mix for Tuesday. I’m not a meteorologist. I am confused by the NWS forecast. Let’s cut to the chase and consult a true expert. What say you, Novak?
ReplyDeleteOne of us who are on FB (are you on it, Joe? because I know some aren't) may need to post it there for Novak. It's a great question. I don't think he's put anything out, yet, for Tuesday. Nope, just checked and he hasn't. It was great seeing him on the other thread .... he gets busy over on FB and may not see your question here, Joe. Let me know if you're not on that platform because maybe I can post it to him when he puts out his predictions for the next few days.
DeleteHi, WeatherGeek. I am not on Facebook please feel free to post my inquiry. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteWill do, Joe. He will probably post late tonight or tomorrow and I will copy/paste in your question. Stay tuned.
DeleteJoe, Mr. Novak posted this answer to your question '7 hours ago' per FB so around 9 p.m. last night: Novak Weather
DeleteQUOTE: "Well, we would need more context/info to answer this question. However, my assumption is that the NWS expects more of surge of warmth ahead of the system due to the strong jet dynamics. However, they did emphasize that they are waiting for the storm's energy to come ashore before committing to a more confident forecast.
As far as "models keep shifting the storm further south". I haven't seen much evidence to support that comment. For the most part, guidances haven't move much at all. However, I would not be shocked if the storm's track were to shift a bit further south." I thanked him for the response. NWS is still reporting one big sloppy mess around the metro.
Latest GFS (18z) run continues the trend of showing the heaviest snow band (4-6 inches) running from North Dakota southeast through the TC metro on Tuesday. Looking forward to hearing Novak’s input. The last 4 model runs have shown this trend.
ReplyDeleteThe NAM is not showing that southward trend. It’s keeping the heavy snow running southeast from ND through Mille Lacs into northwestern WI.
ReplyDeleteNovak just posted on FB at around 7 p.m. Part of the metro is in 'moderate' (anticipate problems) but not the south metro. He does note: "Any subtle shift in this storm's track will make a world of a difference for many in so. MN & northern WI." I posted Joe's question. Maybe he will pay a visit over here. Let is SNOW!
ReplyDeleteWeatherGeek, thanks for posting my question on Facebook. So if I’m reading the information correctly this morning, Saint Paul might get half a foot of snow and Minneapolis will get nothing but a rain snow mix? How is it the Twin Cities is literally often on the dividing line? Why isn’t it Little Falls or Mankato, for example? Very frustrating!
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome. I hear you. The forecast keeps changing, too... today there have been a lot of 'flurries' so far, and now there is a potential for 'inches' v more rain around the metro tomorrow and tomorrow night. Let me see if Novak has posted any updates today on FB. Oh: about noon today he 'subtly massaged' (his words) the travel impact map he always posts because there is a slight shift south for the strong clipper tomorrow PM. North metro = high ' alter travel plans' and rest of the metro 'moderate' meaning yeah, WINTER stuff mostly. The line as always is 'tight' and that's why above you are right that we seem to be on a dividing line. He says he is 'buying' the models putting forth around 5" in the metro. So let's see what happens. Let it snow!
DeleteBurst of some very intense snowfall right now! NWS going forecast for this snow burst was “less then half inch possible”. This will easily be 1-2” for anyone in this band of snow moving thru.
ReplyDeleteNovak just posted his prediction of 4 to 6+ inches for all of the metro except for the far southern metro. The NWS is predicting 2-5 inches.
ReplyDeleteI just don’t see it and I hope I am dead wrong! Seems like each recent model run pushes it north. Even the HRRR and the NAM. I really trust Novak, but I am not seeing this one. I see slip and maybe 2 inches on the backside.
ReplyDeleteDoing the Dead Wrong dance!!
Bring it!!
Damn! Never thought in a million years that PWL would be a downer vibe on a impending snow storm inside of 24hrs especially when his go to trusted meteorologist Novak has the core MSP metro squarely inside of the heaviest significant band! Definitely didn’t have this scenario on my December bingo card.
DeleteHeavy snow still accumulating in north metro. Crazy quick snow storm piling up out there.
ReplyDeleteI agree with PWL. I don’t see it either, but I trust Novak…
ReplyDeleteThis will go down as one of the largest differences between models this close to a storm as I can think of. Euro, CMC and GFS have the snow bands nearly 75-100 miles further south than HRRR/NAM and this is less than 18 hours before the onset of the storm. I'm completely baffled....
ReplyDeleteIt is very odd to see PWL with a new dance called the "Dead Wrong Dance"....... as of the wee hours today the forecast for the metro 'holds' with NWS and looking at the watches/warning maps, the metro 'just misses' the WSW posted as if it is hugging us. Blaine is in the WSW, for ex. It's the freezing rain/warmth that probably wrecks our snow totals, right? Phooey. Eight hours ago Mr. Novak still had the metro in a 6 to 8" band. Time will tell................stay safe as we slip, slide around. Let it SNOOOOWWWWWW.
ReplyDeleteNAM folded to Euro model with 06Z run. Once again NWS falls victim to believing high res models haha.
ReplyDeleteI just saw that too. In the Plymouth/Maple Grove area the latest NAM run (06z) is now calling for 5 inches; Euro: 6 inches; GFS: 5 inches; HRRR: 3 inches; NAM 3KM: 3 inches. Pretty much the same amounts are reflected for Minneapolis, maybe an inch less on some models. Let the games begin!
DeleteWhile I wish we were in the heart of the heavy snow with little question of mixing, sleet, etc., being on the tight gradient line is really, really fascinating. This will be a BLAST to watch play out. A BLAST!!!
ReplyDeleteThe HRRR is so interesting. I trust that one a lot, and it is such an outlier. HOWEVER, the 12z run is just coming in and it has moved closer to the Twin Cities.
It is clear that Plymouth (west) will get less than the northeast suburbs so it is hard to predict.
Some things I saw:
FOX9 (this morning) - 1-4 inches
NWS (current) - 2-5 inches
Weather.com (current for Plymouth) - 4-8 inches
WCCO TV (last night) - 4-6 or more inches
KSTP TV (last night) - 1-3 inches
Fun to watch! Bring it!!!!
WCCO has the right idea. 4-6 is likely but dont be surprised if some localized areas are closer to 7 or 8 inches.
ReplyDeleteAnd Nam 12z run is starting to come in and another big shift further south NWS is going to have a lot of explaining to do. Duluth? Complete bust they probably won't see more than an inch of snow yet NWS is forecasting significant snow up there. What a joke
ReplyDeleteIn the Plymouth/Maple Grove area the latest NAM run (12z) is now calling for 6 inches (last run was 5 inches); Euro: 6 inches; GFS: 6 inches (last run was 5 inches); HRRR: 4 inches (last run was 3 inches); NAM 3KM: 5 inches (last run was 3 inches).
ReplyDeleteWhat local Twin Cities time do the next round of model updates come out? Any care to publish when they do? I appreciate PWL and Joe posting these during the storm for better insight.
ReplyDeleteNovak just posted this: "Short term guidance (CAMs) have finally come around to the idea of significant SNOW (Novak's emphasis) in the Twin Cities metro. In turn, confidence in my earlier forecasts have increased." The model (12z NAM 3km) shows 5.9 inches for Minneapolis. Novak said the snow should start around 2PM today, and he will have a live video at 3PM today.
ReplyDeleteLatest HRRR has the entire metro core(494/694 loop)in 6-8” now
ReplyDeleteModel was very slooowww to come around
MSP is the main show. Awesome.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the models showing? One met on local radio said it will switch over to drizzle for a few hours before it snows again. But there is no way I believe we only get two inches. I was out in it for a couple of hours and it must be 2+ already in many parts of the metro with the advisory not ending until 6 a.m. Big Snow Fan, do you think MSP will continue to be 'the main show'? That would be awesome. Bigdaddy, that would be so cool to have 6-8". I hope rain doesn't ruin it all. Thanks for the updates. And keep dancing, PWL.
DeleteThis. Is. Awesome!!!
ReplyDeleteBring it!!!
You posted just as I said, 'Keep dancing, PWL.' Yup. Keep it coming.
DeleteMain snow show will end in MSP about 7:00pm. It dumped! Wondering if the bands to our NW will add some more?
ReplyDeleteYeah probably another 1-2 inches on the backend
DeleteI am a tad sad. NWS posts on FB: "Our office in Chanhassen measured 2.2" of snow at 6 PM. MSP airport had 2.6" -- Of course, snow is ongoing!" But they say another round of 'light snow' will occur later as the high winds come in. It sure seemed like there was more snow. They seem to be staying with low numbers.
ReplyDeleteEast metro I measured give or take 5 inches of snow so far. Another 1-2 overnight so not a bad clipper system if I do say so myself.
ReplyDelete4” New Hope
ReplyDeleteHeavy snow band at the moment
So glad the clipper sank south so the metro stayed in all snow...and a lot of it! A solid 6-7 inches in the Maple Grove area.
ReplyDeleteAs for looking ahead, I am a little disturbed by the following statement from the NWS this morning regarding next week:
"Besides the warmer weather, your shovels and snow blowers will get a break as well, with our next potential for precipitation after Saturday not coming until Thursday next week and it may be warm enough for this system where the predominate p-type we get is JUST PLAIN RAIN." [emphasis added]. WHAT??!!! Can't we have a normal, cold, snowy winter anymore?! Suffice to say, I hope the NWS is WRONG...again!
I totally agree with you, Joe. Paul Douglas noted on his Strib blog that we had the coldest first week of December since 2007! 'Bout time. I don't want to go back to the climate-changing warmth we've had in many seasons since then. Average normal highs next week are mid to high 20's and lows in the teens. Go away, rain potential and 'hot' temps, go far away. This is supposed to be Minne-snow-tah. I hope NWS is wrong, too.
Deletegfs is already backing off on the prolonged warmth next week.
ReplyDeleteI'm worried about surprises on Thursday as eastern MN & western WI will potentially be located in the sweet spot on the left front quad of a jet streak. Guidance isn't picking up on this yet from a QPF standpoint, but this should prove to be interesting as temps drop like a rock during the PM & winds pick-up.
ReplyDeleteYes!! You are talking my language, Novak!! Bring that surprise stuff. Love it!!
ReplyDeleteBring it!!
Keeping my fingers crossed for good surprises!
ReplyDeleteJust read the updated forecast. Darn. So much for a fun surprise. Maybe next time?
ReplyDeleteYeah, rain and flash freezing and high winds. Yuck, yuck, and yuck. Hopefully and indeed, maybe next time. Thanks for visiting again, Mr. Novak. Reminds me of the old days of the blog. Stay upright, everyone. It sure is slippery out there even before the thermometer plunges tomorrow.
DeleteJust saw Novak’s message regarding the “hot” (my word) dry weather pattern on the way. He said our snowpack will take a big hit over the next ten days. Brown ground by the first of the year? It wouldn’t surprise me. We got off to a great start to winter the first half of December. We had to know it wouldn’t last. Heaven forbid we actually ever have a real winter here again in the metro.
ReplyDeleteNovak posted MSP might challenge the Christmas Day record high of 54 degrees??!! What?? Where did that come from? I haven’t heard anyone mention temperatures next week any higher than the 30’s!
ReplyDeleteI can't find that post, Not That Bill..... he said that? Mid+ 50's? Holy Moly. I looked at my weather calendar, and that Christmas Day record was just two years ago. And yeah, Joe, we did get off to a decent start earlier this month. It's sad to see it melting away/rain last night and this morning. Stay safe everyone. Hoping for more snow...............
ReplyDeleteI don’t see that post either. Please share more.
ReplyDeleteLet’s be clear that Novak only the only one that even hinted at the possibility of this type of measurable snowfall today several days ago! It’s coming down hard!
Bring it!!!
Novak Weather Live Updates. 11:58AM this morning on Facebook messenger app.
ReplyDelete“Record high @ MSP Int'l on Xmas day is 54°F. Don't be surprised if we threaten that figure.”
He also posted the following this morning at 10:56AM:
“Latest medium range model guidances are hinting at a relatively WARM Xmas & New Years holiday.”
“Our snowpack will continue to take a big hit over the next 10 days.”
Thanks, Not That Bill. I don't have the FB messenger app connection, so I miss those. I just see his regular posts that I follow. I appreciate the messenger updates. Keep us posted if possible. We don't even have much snowpack left around where I live. Thanks again.
DeleteSuch a promising start to winter with the cold and snow and now this! I’ve been looking at the models the last week or so intently hoping those warm signals would go away and they haven’t and in some cases have grown bigger, easily 40’s Christmas Eve and Day, our snow pack will take a hit to the tune of I wonder if we’ll get a White Christmas, we may eek it out with the technical definition but it will be spotty dirty piles of snow around. Stock up on the blue juice next week could have a decent run of above freezing temperatures. Sucks!!
ReplyDeleteI echo your sentiments, Bigdaddy. I have been scouring the models and data looking for hope too. Why is it we can never have pretty things? It’s very disappointing and deflating to those of us who love winter. I just had a feeling things would do an about face soon. Winter was revving up and things were just going too well. This is when we should be building ice and a snowpack, not melting it away. Will this be our third consecutive ultra lame winter…I wouldn’t be surprised if the answer is yes.
ReplyDeleteThe season started out great. Ironically, here we are three days from Christmas wondering if we will even have a white Christmas. Officially 3 inches was measured yesterday morning at MSP. It will be at least close to 40 degrees, if not warmer, today and Christmas Eve. We officially eke out an inch of snow for an official white Christmas? Smh
ReplyDeleteI see Novak is still pushing 50+ degrees at MSP airport this week??? I haven’t seen any guidance or heard anyone else predict temperatures any higher than 40 degrees this week, which is the prediction for Christmas Day.
ReplyDeleteMe either, Dave. It's so sad to see the beautiful snow melting away and seeing 'showers' in a forecast or hearing rain on the window pre-dawn. Some 'winter' once again after such a promising start. Maybe if enough of the snow that is hanging on melts..........Sad, sad, sad.
ReplyDeleteHello folks, Merry Christmas to all my snow loving peeps out there! I know it’s been a little quiet and warm and melty in the weather department as of late, but we should eke out a White Christmas with still a few inches in and around the metro. Also looking out in the horizon tonight’s 00Z run of the EURO looked promising and potentially snowy as we open up the new year with that model showing not 1, not 2, but 3 snow systems the first week of the new year totaling 12-16” in and around the metro. Now obviously too soon for details on any numbers nor due I care at this point, but the fact it’s showing sensible active and snowy weather is what I’m interested in and here for. So in closing go enjoy your holiday, be merry, be festive, be safe and let’s hope Mother Nature kicks back into gear in the New Year!
ReplyDeleteThank you for that encouragement, Big Daddy! I occassionally see things about storms coming up on FaceBook but this is way better! Merry Christmas to all us snow lovers. Bring it, New Year!
ReplyDeleteBring it!! I will be doing the New Year's Snow Dance. It is one I just created and am working on learning it. I will have lots of time to practice over the newt week. We will see if it works!
ReplyDeleteBring it!!
Looks like something's brewing for Sunday night into Monday. All the models are showing a good amount for eastern MN into WI.
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