And Seemingly Out of the Blue May Come More White

Wednesday's sunset after another melty day.

Our last blog entry created some buzz about the value of mid- to long-range forecasts. We all want to know if winter is effectively over or if more snow and cold lurks. Many weather outlets -- both television and the major Twin Cities blogs -- mentioned just yesterday (and even this morning) that conditions were not ripe for significant snows over the next several weeks (though many did include caveats about March snowstorms often popping up out of nowhere).

Commenter Disco, a frequent contributor to the blog, mentioned that statistician Nate Silver's book, The Signal and the Noise, details how forecasts nine days out and more are actually less accurate than if climatological norms were predicted. We researched this concept and found a great description here. It's worth the read, as is Nate Silver's book, and will leave you wondering why anyone bothers trying to forecast beyond nine days -- at least given the current state of the science of meteorology.

And... drum roll... as if on cue, mother nature appears to be trying to teach a lesson to those who would make general statements about weather beyond a week out. The latest weather models are suggesting that "a storm to watch" will head into the Midwest by around Tuesday of next week. Here's Tom Novak's first take on the scenario.