Showing posts with label probability forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label probability forecast. Show all posts

Saturday, February 25, 2012

A Friendly Challenge to Local Forecasters

We challenge local Twin Cities forecasters to get creative and more informative in their forecast presentation as we get closer to a potential big storm on Tuesday/Wednesday. We’d love to see them take a page from the Capital Weather Gang book and paint a storm scenario in simple probabilities, something along the lines of this: 
  • 10% 1 inch or less
  • 25% 1-3 inches
  • 30% 3-6 inches
  • 25% 6-12 inches
  • 10% >12 inches
This seems to be a very logical way of recognizing the possibilities of a given storm scenario while implicitly incorporating the uncertainty that comes with distance (in time) to the event. And just as the cone of a possible land-falling hurricane gets narrowed as time elapses, so too, could the probabilities of various outcomes.

Forecasters, what are your thoughts with this kind of presentation? Consumers/weather watchers, is this a presentation you'd like to see?