The "Big One" Seen Increasingly Unlikely by Local Weather Prognosticators

The storm that's been better advertised than Geico insurance (but sadly without all the humor) is almost here ... assuming it's still coming, that is. Forecasters, in some cases grudgingly, provided snowfall estimates for a possible snow event on Tuesday night and Wednesday. (And, oh by the way, a much less heralded two inches of snow seemingly made it under the radar on Sunday night.)

As of Sunday night, here's how the menu looked for the potential serving of snow beginning Tuesday night:

WCCO: "Maybe 3 to 5 inches"

KSTP: 10 on a 1-10 confidence scale for measurable; 5 on a 10-scale for plowable (4-6 inches)

FOX: 3 to 6 inches

KARE: "Maybe a few inches."

Strib: 2-4 inches in metro
MPR: Too early to call
NWS: Snow likely Tuesday night. Snow, could be heavy at times, on Wednesday.

The progressive history of the forecasts for this storm can be found here.

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Sleet Seems to be the Word for Friday

Summary recap as of 9 a.m. on Thursday.This appears to be a particularly challenging forecast for the ensemble given questions regarding the type of precipitation and the timing of a changeover to sleet and snow. KSTP (channel 5) is now the most bullish on snow totals with a forecast of 3 to 5 inches (most in the west metro). Others generally call for an inch or two of sleet and snow. If you'd like to receive tweets on the sleet, follow us on Twitter.

WCCO: About an inch with some sleet

KSTP: 3-5 inches, highest west metro

FOX: Not much in the metro. Could be an inch or two and much of that would be sleet.

KARE: 1-3 inches

Star Tribune: MSP Metro: 1" of ice (sleet/freezing rain), then 1-2" of snow Friday night

MPR: “The track of the second low over the Twin Cities on New Year's Eve places the heaviest snow into west central Minnesota.” Snow/sleet indicated for Twin Cities but no specifics on accumulation

NWS: Sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Ice accumulation around one tenth of an inch.