Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Seven Days Out, 20-Degree Disparity in Forecast Highs for Wed. June 8

Monday evening: The Monday temperature is now in the books with a high of 97. No forecasters were close to that temperature with their 5-day advance forecast.

(Read ahead to the second paragraph to see the latest updated temperature forecasts for the Monday-Wednesday period).

Watching KSTP's Dave Dahl forecast a considerable heat wave next week (punctuated by a forecast of a whopping 94 for next Wednesday) got us to thinking it was time to do another extended outlook temperature analysis, something we haven't done since forecasts of extreme cold back in January. As of late Wednesday evening, here was the amazing variance in forecast high temps for several days next week. (The high temperatures detailed below are for Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday.)

WCCO: 85/85/80
KSTP: 88/92/94
FOX: 84/85/84
KARE: 84/--/--
NWS: 83/81/83 87/85/77 80/75/74
Strib: 79/76/75

As of Saturday night, the forecast highs for the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday period were as follows. Except for KSTP, which initially predicted considerably hotter M-Wed. temps than all others, virtually all weather outlets have upped their forecast high temperatures. At this point, is the outlier with temperatures for Wednesday considerably cooler than all others.

WCCO: 86/89/89
KSTP: 86/92/90
KARE: 89/90/87
NWS: 86/90/90 89/91/80 86/93/88
Strib: 88/91/85


  1. I don't read models, but I'm guessing they're having a hard time agreeing? Precipitation outlooks are similarly puzzling. Some are saying a soaker for Wed-Fri while others are giving a slight chance of t-storms one or two of the days. The warmer the forecasted highs, it seems, the lower the prediction for precip.

  2. Big anti-cyclone sets up in the middle of the country for the next 1-2 weeks. Will be warm in MN, but hot...?

  3. 1st 90 of the this KMSP is reporting 91

  4. Strib is going in the HOT direction for next week and almost all outlets are now expecting the once mid-week rain event to be nothing more than a chance of a t-storm. 93 degrees predicted for Wednesday. Sum, sum, summertime!

  5. Fox also said that we will be in a stormy pattern next week. I do not know about the others, but if this happens, do you suppose that the storms will keep our tempatures below 90 degrees?

  6. Ridge is strong allowing the warm air to build northward over Minnesota but also a distinct boundary to set up and then push south as disturbance "ridge-rides" from MT to MN. A high of 94 is on the top end and assuming the disturbance doesn't produce clouds/tstorms and allow boundary to push southward it could happen. Forecast temps in the 70s a little cool, IMHO. Having done utility forecasting in the past it is a very fine and careful line you play on for summer time forecasting especially for temps above 90°F and VERY critical when going for the triple digits.

    Best way is to trend upward but don't be too conservative if it looks very probable but dont go too high as that can stir excitement especially when the following day or two you end up lowering as the threat of precip/clouds/frontal boundary passage look more probable. I would feel good with a 85°F right now for 4-5 days out.

    Tuesday looks pretty warm, too.

  7. The posted forecasts were as of last Wednesday night, so for a full 5-7 days in advance. I haven't posted updated forecasts, but I don't think anyone is still predicting 70s now.

  8. Ah, thanks for the update, Bill. Now we sit and wait to see what the ole thermometer does at MSP airport. ;-)

  9. it looks like DD got this one right...although the 94 may be a day to late...but that far out good job Dave!!!

  10. Even looks like Dave underestimated the heat for today.

  11. This heat sucks,but you have to give credit where credit is due good job DD,MSP has made it to 96 so far many towns south of here has hit the century mark,Albert Lea for one,here's a question for you all with tomorrow being just as hot if not hotter which city closet to the metro will hit the century mark tomorrow,I'm going with Eden Pairire. What I'm loving is the cold front coming Wednesday,highs thur/fri/sat will be in the 60's(mother natures very own central air)in fact I see it struggling to get to 60 Saturday with rain,Bill that should be your next post,how cool will it get after this hot spell,I already see huge variances in the forecasts,nws is the coolest and I like their solution/thinking,only in minnesota can you have a 30 degree swing in highs in 48 hours