Saturday, June 25, 2011

Kvetching Time -- Busted Saturday Forecast

Sunday a.m. update
It's too early in the day to say whether we've got a double bust on our hands, but the unpredictable weather is even making nowcasts a challenge:

A nowcast from the NWS issued at 8:22 a.m. called for showers by noon; it never happened.
Saturday update
You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows... and you don't need a Consumer Reports-type weather website to tell you that today's forecast was a busted one. Still, it's our job to point these things out.


The good news for Twin Cities forecasters: As far as we can tell, everybody blew today's forecast. Here are a few depictions from local weather presentations:




WCCO: "Nice Day" for Saturday

"Nice Day" for Saturday

Star Tribune Blog

MPR Weather Blog (using NWS graphics)


Honorable mention goes to KSTP's Patrick Hammer for calling a spade a spade:

21 comments:

  1. Belinda Jensen said last night, "80 degrees and sunny on Saturday, I promise." What a joke. Any of us who had this kind of track record at work for being WRONG 90% of the time would have been fired a long time ago. What planet are these these people on????

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  2. Kare11 is the feel good channel, always blowing sunshine up your skirt regardless if it's the news or the weather. If it's going to be a cruddy day, then just say so instead of trying to be "MN Nice" all the time, which is complete hooey anyway.

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  3. Wrong 90% of a time? If that was true Bill would be making posts when the get it right, not blow it.

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  4. This is just horrendous. Even yesterday (Saturday, the day that so far off the predicted forecasts) they said, "We promise you will see some sun tomorrow." Now, waking up to solid clouds, I turn on Ch. 9 and she says, "Well something changed overnight and we are going to see clouds all day." NWS had partly sunny yesterday for today, now has "mostly cloudy, storms/rain, and heavy storms tonight through tomorrow." WTF? What gives with this weather pattern. This is like November in terms of cloudy days. I swear I have SAD in the summer - that or just plain old rage. Why don't they just forecast clouds, and then we could be pleasantly surprised instead of repeatedly, day after day, weekend after weekend, disappointed. This sucks. Not only did winter suck, and spring suck, but now summer is passing us by too. I swear, Minnesota has the crappiest weather in the country, at least the last two years anyway.

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  5. Weather.com deserves a TON of credit for getting it right. Starting Thursday night, they changed Saturday's forecast to include showers. In fact, on Friday morning, they called for showers on and off all day. I thought they were nuts, since the local people all called for sun. I bet on the locals instead of the TV station in Georgia and ended up sitting outside in the rain.

    Can we also note that they blew LAST Saturday's forecast too? Yes, they acknowledged that there "might" be some AM rain, but nobody called for a washout. Yet, it rained all day and it was still raining steadily at 7:00 pm. Again, plans - made per the forecast - were more or less ruined.

    My personal feeling is that these meteorologists are looking for any opportunity to bring us good news amidst the La Nina Spring/Summer from hell, and therefore are overstating how "nice" and "beautiful" it's going to be. Such a strategy only leaves Minnesotans more angry when it doesn't pan out.

    Tip to the weather people: we've come to expect crummy weather this year. We can hack it if it's going to rain...but it would be nice to know the real chances of certain types of weather so we can prepare for it. If you've learned anything this year, it should be to ALWAYS err on the side of rain.

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  6. CWY2190: Yes, 90% of the time. People here have only been concentrating on the predicted storms, not the every day weather. I've been keeping track for several years. They're wrong 90% of the time, and of course, they never acknowledged it, but took plenty of credit when they did actually get it right. They're only starting to acknowledge being wrong now because people have finally started to question their forecasts.

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  7. @Anonymous I don't know about KARE11 being a "feel good" channel or not, but I'm confident the forecasters do try to get it right.

    @AB Interesting about weather.com. Wish I had the resources to track every forecast or at least when one or two weather outlets have forecasts that are different than the rest.

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  8. Bill: I agree. I think that they do try to get it right, it's just unfortunate that more often than not, they don't. I don't know what all the local meterologists are looking at, but it seems that they're either not looking at the correct stuff, or all their expensive radar equipment, etc. is faulty. :) :) :) I know every time my employer decides to get the newest, latest technology that's going to change everything we do for the better, often times does NOT. I'm beginning to think that's the case with whatever technology meterologists around here use. They were much better at forecasting the weather, and being correct, 30 years ago.

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  9. PD has some commentary in his blog post today regarding the "bust" yesterday. He says the frequency of forecast busts this year is unprecedented and the meteorological community can't figure it out. La Nina, yes, but they've never seen it behave this extremely before.

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  10. Regarding today's forecast, it's been partly sunny in the west metro for the past two hours after some morning showers. On that note, so far so...okay for today's weather out here. Not sure how the rest of the Cities is faring...

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  11. Cloudy all day in Minneapolis. Just had a sprinkle a little bit ago, but WEAK sun peeking out through hazy, cloudy skies. Certainly not a sunny day here today. I have to disagree with PD though, their forecasts for the most part, for the past few years, have been busts.

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  12. I had the luxury of staying up Friday night after midnight so i looked at the new runs of the forecast models, I thought oh boy there are going to be a lot of pissed peeps out there...The Nam model (which I think most of our local mets are married to) showed rain showers along the I-90 corridor, but both the GFS and The Gem models showed rain chances for the metro and a totally rotten day,..but those models came out after the late local news was over with

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  13. Just to show how hard the forecast has been for this weekend...the best forecaster in the world (in my opinion) at the Storm Predication Center in Norman OK, have had a horrible time with this system for today (Sun)

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  14. I don't know what all the forecaster said for tonight but I expect some of them to call for areas that will get 1"+ of rain including the Metro based on the 12z (7pm Namm). The GFS has heavier rain in the Northern part of the state.

    Latest HRRR model show heavy rain in IA and northern MN...with just a few pockets closing in on a inch sw of the metro...don't be surprised in the metro if you wake up to very little rain. And I see Ian posted a change in the forecast..most rain stays south

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  15. I don't think we saw a drop...and the sun is out! This kind of "bust" I'm okay with.

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  16. Lets see a bust on Sat,a bust on Sun.(slight severe weather with heavy rain never happened),and now a bust on Monday(most had damp,rainy start to the day,even DD had called for 1+" of rain and PD had said for days heavy showers/storms for Monday)so I wake to a sea of blue skies and not a storm in sight,cancelled my trip to the Dells cuz I trusted these guys(how many years of experience between the two,over 50 I suppose)not like I cancelled weeks ago,I waited till the last minute(yesterday,Sunday)I know weather is tricky and ever-changing,but can we not get a forecast correct 24hrs in advance or 8hrs in advance,watching DD on the 10pm news last night he called for 1+" by monday morning,COME ON is the pattern that hard that we cant forecast 8hrs in advance.ughhhhhhhh!

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  17. Why did you use a WCCO forecast issued Wednesday evening to critique Saturday "bust". They had showers in their Saturday forecast starting with Friday AM newscasts.

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  18. Anon@9:27am---why not use their wednesday evening forecast for saturday,can't they get a forecast correct 48-60hrs in advance,heck they had the same forecast thursday night,oh sorry 24-36hrs isnt close enough either for you,most Minnesotians have some part of the weekend off and would like to make plans for it,so when you look at anyones forecast 36hrs in advance that should suffice to make your plans unless you listen to the local mets,crap the folks in Atlanta(weather channel)did a better job!!!

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  19. WCCO Friday night forecast mentioned the possibility of showers in western MN with a high in MPS of 79. It was essentially the same as everyone else's.

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  20. Who cancels a trip to Wisc Dells based on a Twin Cities forecast? Their weather can be anywhere from 8-24 hours off from us on storms tracking over both areas...and sometimes the weather here never gets there. For what it's worth, the forecasts for that area call for storms developing in the mid-afternoon. Can't call them wrong yet.

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  21. Hey AB, for the most part the dells are 175 miles east of the twin cities,typically weather travels west to east,close enough that the weather here will effect there shortly,so when all outlets in the Dells and the TWC call for anywhere from 50 percent to likely showers/thunderstorms,you dont risk it,when a perfect weather day is needed to enjoy the Dells,dont you think I did my homework on what the mets in the dells were saying,btw...they SUCKED too,we traveled there Monday afternoon with nothing but blue skies the entire way,clear night and Tuesday was a great day to enjoy Noak's Ark,that area is expansive you dont waste it when rain is in the forecast,AB!!

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