Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Early Prognostications For State Fair Weather

Dave Dahl appears to be the first local forecaster to put out a forecast for the state fair. The following appeared on the KSTP weather blog in the late afternoon of Tuesday, August 16.
Highs will probably climb quickly through the 80s and into the 90s by the start of the Minnesota State Fair.  Right now it looks as though we'll have the average amount of rainy days during the Fair, which means we can plan on around 3 of the 12 days to be a little wet.
Thanks to the always-brave national weather outlets, we can report the following forecast for the opening day of the fair:
Intellicast: Sunny, 80
Weather.com: Sunny, 81
Accuweather: Sunny, 86
Weathertrends360.com: Sunny, 82
Anyone else have an educated guess on the state fair weather?


  1. Hopfully riot free

  2. I heard Ian Lenord put out that the first week of the state fair looks like nice weather. It does not tell you a lot, but it probably means that it won't be like July.

  3. Found this after a couple of minutes. It is what the climate prediction center thinks:



  4. Interesting! Several forecasters (@NovakWeather and KSTP peeps) have suggested it will get quite warm but the NWS doesn't seem to reflect that.

  5. All about the tropics for me right now and they are about to light up.

    Even though I'm from MN, tropical meteorology is still by favorite.

  6. I agree with Dave and Novak...the ridge will build northward bringing above normal temps to our area, as a matter of fact we could see some heights as high as 590 at the 500 mb level, my forecast for the first two days of the state fair.

    For the 25th: Highs between 87 and 92 with DP values between 66 and 70°

    For the 26th Highs between 85 and 90 with DP's between 65 and 70.

    confidence is fairly high for this far out, however precip is another thing entirely.

  7. @CW2190

    I know some people are getting excited about what the GFS and the Gem are showing in the tropics, bringing a major tropical storm up the east coast of the US, I was one of them, until tonight. One of the things that I have learned is that the Gem has a bias towards developing tropical systems. Of course many people know that GFS has a problem with convective feedback, and it appears it does with this system as well.

    Looking at the current water vapor imagery, Invest 93L will be encountering a area of very dry air in the near feature. Can it survive? the GEM and GFS both say yes. If it is does survive than the GFS and GEM both bring it over Hispaniola (Dominican Republic/Haiti) and they both show it surviving that trip.

    However looking further the GFS and GEM ensemble means at 500mb do not really support their operational solution. In addition to that neither the NOGAP or ECMWF operational models show the system surviving the dry air in front of it.

    So I would say that the chance of that system developing into a major tropical event is around 30%, but it will be fascinating to watch. But overall your right, it's getting interesting looking at what is coming off the African coast.

  8. Hmmm....@CW looks like the Euro has picked this up, maybe the GFS can score a big win! lol

  9. OPPS!!!

    The ECMWF has now picked this up...look out east coast!

  10. Whats worrying is the models are getting rid of the Texas ridge showing the GOM wide open for late-August/Early-September.

    If something gets into the caribbean, the gulf coast is under serious threat.

  11. ok this has been a challenge for the last few days trying to figure out how warm, or cool it will be for the first two days of the state fair....so I have a revision here, the second number is the dew points

    Thursday 84/62...Friday 88/67

    at this time the weekend looks hot

  12. Could hit 90... now would be the time to put what people think to the test, with a whole bunch of people thinking the tempatures will not get above it...

    By the way, The graph shown by the link is probably invald by now... look to seven day.

  13. 90° tomorrow? Hmm we could have convection around up to 9am maybe 10am, with some debris left over, I wouldn't be surprised if sun didn't break through til 11am, given the lower angle of the sun and less daylight coupled with starting DP'S around 70, it might be a struggle to get to 90, I thinks more like 87

  14. Current temp: 73 with lots of clouds.

    They're still forecasting 92 and I'm not surprised. This isn't the first (or second or third) time this summer that forecast models haven't been ignored/adjusted for actual conditions.

  15. The track of Irene keeps pushing east... If it keeps it's track now, NYC and Washington D.C. should watch out.

  16. I'd always heard that "they" -- either the mets or the models -- were better at predicting direction rather than strength when it came to hurricanes. This thing seems to be moving almost out of the cone... sounds like it will pass even to the south and east now of the big northeastern cities.

    Let's face it... there may be progress when it comes to predicting the weather, but there's still a long way to go.

  17. Yeah. Track forecasting has gotten pretty good. In fact the NHC is starting to do in house 7 day forecasts and they will probably be public by 2013.

    Intensity forecasts have stalled since the 90s though. Just too much we don't know about hurricanes.

    Models have been very poor with Irene though.

  18. Couple links too.

    Heres the NHC verification stuff.


    And heres recon for Google earth


  19. Sorry for another comment. Forgot to add this.

    What most people don't understand about the cone is its just the 67th percentile of errors at a given time over the past 5 years. Basically it means 33% of the time it will be outside of the cone.

    It has nothing to do with forecasted impacts which many people think it does.

  20. It is frustrating watching the forecasts for Irene. They show the "cone" and follow that up by saying "the storm keeps drifting east of our models." However, do they take this into consideration when forecasting the track of this storm? Nope. They continue to stick with the cone created by the models and continue to warn the east coast (further and further north as the storm continues its easterly trend) to be prepared for the eye of this terrible storm, the worst of which, for all we know, may not get within 100 miles of shore.

    Now, I understand that much of the east coast will still be pummeled with torrential rain. Still, what seems logical to me would be to trend the forecast cone east of the models so that it more accurately follows what the storm has actually been doing.

    If putting computer-generated models on TV is all that's required of meteorologists these days, why even get a degree???

  21. Massive shift west from the 12z Euro.

  22. AB, I totally agree with you. Also, I guess I don't understand the purpose of the cone if it only is meant to capture the 67th percentile of outcomes. Why not have a gradated cone that reflects current probabilities, standard deviations, etc. In my "outsider" perspective, the cone should capture all possibilities, even if that means it's wide. I'm also confused by the fact that the models show paths that are mainly to the east of the "best guess projected track." It's all a little baffling and disappointing.

  23. CW:

    I expected this out of the Euro.

    At this time I have thrown the the statistical models out the window b/c they relay on to much historical data, therefore I have switched my attention to the world wide dynamic models, most notably The ECMWF and GFS.

    Here is the latest water temp map of the area.


    It appears as if the ECMWF want's to bring Irene across the outer bank on NC just slightly west of where the GFS takes it, my best guess is a very strong CAT 3 or weak to moderate CAT 4, it will weaken somewhat as it does. By this time Irene is going to so powerful it will create it's own climate and the steering flow that models show it following will be inconsequential.

    Notice on the water temp map there is a wider gradient of warmer water near the coast than there is just to the NE of there. I believe Irene will sense that and stay west of the GFS, and briefly strengthen again, the 12z run shows it making land fall on the southern NJ coast I think as a strong CAT 3 and dare I say a weak CAT 4.

    At this time my most favored track in the end will be from NJ on the west to Central Long Island on the East. Call me crazy but that's the way I see it.

    I dearly hope I'm wrong and this thing goes out to sea, that option is on the table but I don't it's likely. This kind of reminds of the long Island Express of 1938.

  24. just found this courtesy of weather. com via a company called WSI...for those that haven't seen this mornings run of the Euro this is it


  25. latest GFS is now in line with the 12z Euro


  26. This is really setting up the be a once in a generation storm. Its so hard to get a track like this.

    First its fairly rare for a storm to be able to move north without getting kick northeast out to sea. Then to have it start moving north in the exact position it takes to go up the entire eastern seaboard is very rare. Then to have it possibly bend just enough to the NNW to make landfall in New Jersey and bring the highest surge into NYC is almost a once in a century event.

  27. Didn't realize it was possible for it to bend back to the NNW later on... thought it was a NNE thing from then on.

    In this day and age of widespread hype, it's hard to know exactly how dangerous it is. My gut thinks it will weaken considerably before hitting the northeast, whether because of interaction with land in North Carolina or simply the cooler water as it heads north. We'll see!

  28. Just set up a new blog post for Hurricane Irene in case anyone wants to comment on it: http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2011/08/how-will-hurricane-irene-affect.html