Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Who Nailed Tuesday's Warmth?

Last Tuesday, April 17, we took notice of the forecast for yesterday, April 24. Most outlets saw yesterday's "heat" coming, but who came the closest to nailing it from seven days away? With the actual high temp being 73, the best scores go to Weather.com and the Star Tribune weather blog, which forecast 72. KSTP was long by five degrees while Fox was short by seven. As a reminder, KARE doesn't provide extended forecasts beyond five days (unless a weekend is involved; go figure) so they were not part of the competition.

The details:
KSTP: 78
FOX: 66
WCCO: 70
NWS: 66
Strib Blog: 72
Accuweather: 63
Weather.com: 72
Actual: 73

14 comments:

  1. So who is going to nail the cooler weather coming?,NWS and Weather.com both have snow mentioned for Friday night/Saturday,mixed with rain.

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  2. So who's believing the NAM,6" of snow Saturday morning,can't happen right?not a chance,right?well that's what the model is saying,I can tell you of one person who hopes the NAM "brings it",PWL. So what do you all say,I can take it or leave,but it will do a number on our plants if it snows that much.

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  3. @big daddy,both Pauls mention snow in their blogs this morning,Mr.Huttner over at MPR and Mr.Douglas over at Startribune,Paul Douglas even shows the NAM graph with the 6" you speak of,could this really happen?stay tuned.........

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  4. NAM really overdid things, and I don't know why it thought that much snow could potentially fall. Keep in mind it doesn't realize how warm it has been, and the overall profile looked too warm for that much to fall. A strong east wind usually doesn't bode well for good moisture into the area. Keep an eye on that for Saturday, because that could really reduce any precip chances for eastern MN and western WI. Some places in MN or WI probably will at some point in time see some snowflakes, but I'm not expecting any accumulations that are worth noting...and still see our temps being back above norm as we head into the month of May :)

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  5. I'm surprised on how eerily quiet the comments are here,except for a few, when snow is in the forecast so late in the season(April 28)and some models have more then a few flakes,more like inches of snow and temps may get no higher then 40,like i said the other day to @ruth it looked cold and could be 20+ degrees below average.BTW this brief chill down(below average for 4 days),may tip the scales for our first month below average temps since last June,we'll see what happens with the snow and temps.....stay tuned!

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  6. Severe weather will be back in our discussion here shortly I believe, as warm moist air surges in early next week. Temps should get into the 70's and dewpoints will probably get into the 60's, upper level features should be supportive for the possibility of severe storms sometime in the Tues/Wed time frame next week. There are still several days to sort that out, but it is certainly worth watching. Nature may provide one last little spurt of snow, but next week we should be reminded that it's almost mid spring.

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    Replies
    1. I've been watching this unfold in the models the last couple of days, there are timing issues between the ECMWF and GFS but it seems like they are honing in on Day 6 Wednesday. The following is from the Storm Prediction Center's outlook for the 4-8 day period, issued 4/27.POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER COVERAGE SEVERE EVENT MAY EVOLVE BY DAY 6
      "OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION FROM MN...IA INTO WI WHERE MODELS
      INDICATE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY UPSTREAM FROM
      RETURNING MOIST AXIS. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN AMPLITUDE AND
      TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...BUT A SEVERE RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE
      INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION IN THE NEXT EXTENDED UPDATE."

      Way to early for specifics.

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  7. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 27, 2012 at 9:24 PM

    Bring it! Cmon! Snow.

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  8. Slight risk is in place for a majority of MN and a tiny portion of far western WI for Tuesday afternoon and night. SW MN is in the higher part of the risk...I put some graphics below illustrating it. Since it is a Day 3, it still has several updates to go through which means several changes will probably be made to it.

    Risk: http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/day3otlk_0730.gif

    Percentages: http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/day3prob_0730.gif

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  9. Things really starting to come together and look interesting for Tues evening and night. It looks like a line of storms will fire out west along a cold front and move east across southern MN through the evening and night. What has my attention is the warm front, which could be set up across parts of central MN and western WI. Depending on where that front sets up will be one of the keys in determining the tornadic threat. If the warm front can initiate storms in the afternoon and evening, I think there will be a tornado threat with it. Those well into the warm sector will probably have to wait for the cold front initiated storms to roll through for their severe chance. The current risk for Tuesday looks somewhat good, however I wouldn't be surprised to see an expansion east of the slight risk, as well as expanding the 30% area to include a bigger chunk of southern MN...even western WI. Stay sky aware for Tuesday, because it potentially could be the most widespread severe event we have seen so far this spring around here.

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  10. Updated risks from the SPC...I said everything I needed to in the previous post, so I'll just post the graphics.

    Risk: http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/day2otlk_0600.gif

    Percentages: http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/day2probotlk_0600_any.gif

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  11. NAM forecast sounding for tomorrow evening near Mankato.

    http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/RL3AO/NAM_218_2012043000_F45_440000N_940000W.png

    Nothing that screams tornado outbreak but a decent looking hodograph with low-level turning. Especially for May 1st in Minnesota.

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  12. The Day 2 outlook is encouraging, especially after these several weeks of cold, lifeless weather :)

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  13. Finally added a new blog thread to focus on possible significant weather tomorrow.

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