Sunday, November 9, 2014

Snowy Monday: How Much Will It Be?


As of Sunday morning, there was virtual certainty among all forecasters that an appreciable snowfall was on the way for Monday. Exactly how much, however, remained in question.

The National Weather Service seemed among the most bullish on a heavy duty snowstorm, predicting "around 10 inches" in their morning briefing. KSTP was the most conservative, predicting "just" 2-4 inches of snow for MSP (airport).

Here's a new video we produced with Patrick Hammer and Tom Novak (@NovakWeather) detailing what they see coming. Follow us on @MNForecaster on Twitter for updates.

One last note. WCCO continues to show model depictions that they're quick to qualify. In the 10 a.m. newscast, the forecaster showed a map depicting 18-24" for the Twin Cities but hastened to add, "We don't think that much snow will fall, though." In a visual medium where people may well be watching with the sound turned down, we think it's irresponsible (and lazy) for WCCO to continue to take this approach.




NWS

Fox 9

KSTP

Weather Channel
KARE11
WCCO showing a model they don't believe in (18-24")

125 comments:

  1. NWS has dropped totals to the 5-9" range in their updated WSW message.

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  2. @bigdaddy, did you also see in AFD updated aviation section where they mention a few hours of sleet is possible at MSP, that could also play into the tick down in snow totals, doesnt look like the metro will get the brunt of this one.

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  3. Dr. Novak is eerily quiet on social media, haven't heard a peep from him since early yesterday, not excited about the storm any longer? Haven't seen a snowfall map from him either.

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    1. I believe Dr. Novak is away this weekend. We're planing to do a video around 8 tonight.

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  4. Turning into a very difficult forecast for the metro. Starting to seem like it could be a 6-8 inch difference between 694 and 494.

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  5. @Bill or anyone else.....when reading the point forecast for your city at the NWS website you merely add the inches they forecast from tonight thru Tuesday to get their storm total forecast for that city, correct?....because thats how I always have done it and if Im reading it correctly currently they have 1" tonight, 6-10"tomorrow, 4-8" tommorrow night, and 1" Tuesday.....so they are forecasting 12-20" for Golden Valley.....WOW!.....what happened?

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    1. The point forecast is a joke. I think the NWS should away with it.

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    2. You're better off going into the hourly grid forecast which can be accessed on the right side of a point forecast page where it says "Hourly Weather Graph".

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  6. 3:17 pm NWS update...10-16 inches for the metro

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  7. I'm going to be seriously irritated if this turns into a non-event for the core Metro.

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  8. I don't think anybody really knows anymore. The models have just been too inconsistent. Around noon, everybody was downgrading to the 5-9 inch range, which matches the language in the last NWS warning. But weather.com has just UPPED their snow forecast for my region (SW metro, near NWS) and NWS has now added more southern counties to the warning and upped their snow totals for my region as well. Was it a blip in the morning models that has undone itself this afternoon?

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  9. NWS has included more counties south of the metro in the warning and as a previous poster noted rally bumped up the totals. Eventually they will need to stick to a forecast. Pretty dramatic change around 12 hours out fom the start.

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  10. And P.S. I find it ironic that the guy running this conversation is enjoying a drink with an umbrella in it on a deck in California. Least he could do is invite us over.

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    1. I'll buy that! I was actually doing what I assume many 'sotans are doing today: raking leaves. How's that for solidarity? Course I'm doing it in shorts in it's 80....

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  11. KARE has MSP right on the edge of the 4-8 and 6-12 line while NWS is at 10-16. Just a massive difference.

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    1. And what NWS is telling other outlets versus what their website shows is also a big difference. Star Tribune has one of their forecasters quoted as expecting 6-10 for most of the metro, 8-16 east metro/WI.

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  12. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 9, 2014 at 6:43 PM

    It seems like big storms like this are just so hard to predict. But, at least we get to have the discussion of a huge storm no matter where you are in the metro, especially the north half of the metro. And a huge difference is if the storm slows as all (or speeds up). That simple slowing can make a 6" difference. Either way, this is just awesome--to be having discussions of possible top 20 storms in MSP history! Love that! Bring that!!

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  13. MPR/Huttner at 8" to 16" metro range as of 4:30pm today with heaviest band favoring north metro. More in line with NWS numbers.

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  14. Final forecast, sorry it's a bit late but I just got home from work and took a quick look at the latest data. For the south metro including the Elko to Lakeview 10-12". Lakeview to 494 12-14". Inside the 494-694 loop 13-15". Northern Hen county and Anoka county 14-16. North of their 16-20"

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  15. My forecast is pretty similar to yours randyinchamplin. I think a foot of snow is likely at MSP. More north, a little less south. My final forecast is up at chasetheplains.com

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  16. Here's our new video! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-365MrWdyro

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  17. Ian Leonard just posted 8 - 11" for MSP thru 3 PM Tuesday.

    Bill hope you are keeping a tally. Fun to see who hits this one. Novak was really low at 5.27" (I think).

    KARE was 6 - 10" as of 6:30 PM. Paul Douglas/Strib is at 6 - 10".

    NWS continues to be on the crazy side at 10 - 18" (derived by clicking Hennepin County).

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    1. Thanks, Dave. Great detail! As you probably know, I'm now in California so I can't be on top of this as much as when I lived there.

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    2. I am aware of that Bill. I am planning on shipping a box of snow to you. Hope it makes it.

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    3. I'd suggest shipping by railroad -- or reverse jet stream.

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  18. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 9, 2014 at 10:37 PM

    Not sure what model Dave Dahl just showed on KSTP, but he said it just came in at around 10:30 pm. It showed 9 inches by 11 am Monday morning!! It also showed a total of over 17 inches for the metro with the metro being right in the bullseye. I don't know which model it was, but that is pretty intense, especially in that short morning timeframe. I say BRING THAT!! WOW!

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    1. That would be awesome! It'll never happen.

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    2. I'll be darned, KSTP tweeted a map with 13.4" for the metro Dave has raised the bar.

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    3. Well actually NWS weather story map at 6:59pm has MSP at 14.4", that seems to take the cake and fall right into randyinchamplain prediction......it is time now to see who is correct, snow on radar is right on our doorstep, Let the snow fly!

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  19. I'm a little surprised how conservative Novak is with his forecast.

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  20. The high res models all seem to clobber the area between Monticello and St. Cloud on I-94. Many examples of over 1.5" precip.

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  21. And it appears to be a bust for the southern metro. NWS has dramatically reduced totals and also moved the warning north a row of counties. Novak takes the early lead!

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  22. NWS seems to have come down closer to Novak's forecast.

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  23. A few pebbles of sleet here in Faribault. Not expecting much out of this storm at all.

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  24. Is this going to be another season where it doesn't pay for snow fans to live in the south metro? It seems that each season either the north metro is the bull's eye or the south metro is. Last year it was clearly the north metro. This storm, albeit the first of the season, is following suit. Bummer!!

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    1. It's November 10th. I mean, really.

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  25. That's a fair question, Anon @ 7:00 AM, but as AB stated, it's only early November. As a fellow southern metro snow fan, I too hope that this isn't the start of a trend. Time will tell! Everybody, enjoy the snow you do get.

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  26. BUST BUST BUST BUST, Don't know how much louder I can shout it, back end of snow just about at the 694/494 in Bloomington and lifting north, only 1.5-2.5 has fallen in the core metro.

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  27. It's hard to imagine reaching the forecasted amount considering the radar right now. Very distinct cut off moving throught the metro. As usual, it seems you have to take the forecasted totals from 24 hours prior, divide in half, and then hope we can even get that much.

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  28. So much hype for really only an average storm at that, I get its the first snow of the season, but all the attention its getting on the morning news this morning is ridiculous, just watched abit of FOX9 right now and one of the reporters was reporting with no snow falling and Keith Maler says still 7-14" will fall from the 35 E/W split on the north metro to the 35 E/W in the south metro, really! Face defeat those numbers arent happening.

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  29. NWS is a joke this morning, their 8:09am graphical cast says the snow band will drift as far as 394, well the band has cleared 394 and just about 694, so wrong there, then in same graph they say 394 on north will get 8-14" and south of 394 will be 4-8", is there some miracle snow band coming to give us those numbers, the snow out west is drying out on the southern end and the rest is moving towards central MN. This is such a bust when they had 14.4" up last night when I went to bed, you know I can accept overnight changes but when were in the middle of it and still cant get it right thats poor.

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  30. It wouldn't be a MN Forecaster snow storm thread without the early bust callers now would it? It's 9AM people, are you serious?

    It's been known that this storm would come in two waves. Here is our lull, and it will ramp back up here in a few hours. I'm not sure if inside the loop will get the 8-12" a lot of people predicted, but it seems like 6-10" with more north of 694 is still a solid bet. So maybe we'll be able to say it was a little over-forecasted, but I highly doubt it will bust.

    Unfortunately, for myself in the south metro, it may be a bust. Although with such a tight gradient, there's not much you can do. It looks like I may only get an inch or two, while 25 miles away may hit double digits. All weather is local, right?

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    1. You just said it yourself, it might be a bust. Last night the NWS was predicting 8 inches or more for the southern metro. Now it appears that we will be lucky to get 2 inches down here. That is a bust for the south metro. St. Cloud on the other hand will get the jackpot, so their forecast will not be a bust. A bust is dependent upon the forecast of a specific area.

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    2. I'm talking about the people calling bust for the 494/694 loop at 9AM.

      For the south metro, yeah, probable bust, but an acceptable one in my opinion since the cutoff is so steep. The system wobbling north an additional 25 miles is all it took, but getting that accurate with forecast models is incredibly difficult. You can only really narrow it down and be that accurate locally once most models go out the window and short term/hi-res models and radar trends are used - and once we got to that point with the system then totals for the south metro were lowered.

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    3. The system didn't really move north though. The heaviest snow is falling almost where NWS said it would. The issue is that they didn't account for as much dry air being sucked in as we're seeing.

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  31. Snow band has lifted as far as Hwy. 10 in Coon Rapids, NWS not looking good at the moment!

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  32. Looks to me that the heavier snow band maybe building back south towards the loop again....it had stopped snowing here in Golden Valley for more then an hour, but it is picking up again...btw we have 2" here thus far.

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  33. I am not being facetious. I live in the Rosemount area and I am heading outside to rake the leaves that I neglected to rake over the weekend. It would be very generous to say that we have picked up a dusting. That is how much snow we have NOT received. When will the NWS drop the warning for the south metro? I could see having a winter weather advisory posted because it appears that the streets are a little icy. By the way, it must have snowed early this morning. I have been up since 6:30 a.m. and I have not seen one snowflake.

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    1. Get used to it because you're not going to see any snowflakes. It's clear that it's a huge BUST!! for anyone south of the 394 corridor. At least Dr. Novak and Patrick Hammer warned us about that last night. The NWS did not! So far the NWS gets a solid "F-" for the south metro. It remains to be seen how they do for the rest of the metro.

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  34. The Minnesota Forecaster: Come for the detailed and educational forecasts, stay for the criticism and whining!

    Honestly though, this storm is far from over. It would be wise to let everything play out and then give out forecaster grades and whine if it was a bust for your location.

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  35. The NWS radar is lighting up over the core metro. Let's hope the band stays around. I hate getting my hopes up for a big storm and having it be a mere annoyance.

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  36. I have about 3 inches on the ground in Roseville, just south of the mall. Now it seems more like slush is falling from the sky.

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  37. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 10, 2014 at 10:19 AM

    The "buster" and the "whiners" only come out to play during and after a storm, not before. It doesn't take "big boy/girl pants" to do that. It is not over yet and the BRING ITS will keep coming. Novak may have nailed it last night, per usual. People very close to home are getting hammered right now.

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    1. PWL, I'm typically a big fan of yours. However, I wonder how so called "busters" and "whiners" can come out BEFORE the storm???

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    2. Who cares about "people close to home"? I am willing to bet that 99% of the people on this site are concerned about the immediate metro (the counties of Hennepin, Ramsey, Dakota, Washington, Scott, etc.) because that is where they work and/or live. They are only concerned about whether the forecast is a bust in those areas. I do agree with you that Novak appears to be spot on. Also, if the forecast is a bust, then it's a bust. So be it. All one has to do is look at the radar trends over the past several hours to see where the real snow has and continues to fall. Novak said to watch for where the heavy band sets up. It will be persistent in that location. It's not forecast to fluctuate. I can understand why several posters from the south metro are disappointed. They see the writing on the wall. I just spoke with a friend of mine in Apple Valley who is wondering what all of the hoopla is about. My friend said that they have picked up maybe half an inch of snow/ice. I am in Isanti and we have received several inches of snow already. I'm not bragging. I'm just sayin"! lol Believe me, there have been plenty of times when we were on the outside up here looking in and envying the people in Minneapolis, Apple Valley because they received big snows and we got a pittance. Mom Nature giveth and Mom Nature taketh away!

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  38. I live in Rosemount. We have about a half inch of some crusty ice. Snowed moderately for about an hour this morning from 3:00-4:00AM. Other than that, nothing. I saw more plows (8, I actually counted when I saw them going two wide in both directions on Pilot Knob) on my way into the office this morning than I have ever seen. I even saw two in the Cedar Grove residential area of Eagan. Really? We are going to send these plow out to plow nothing. I can understand if they are prepping intersections for snow later this afternoon, but c'mon? Scraping up the streets and dulling your blades for a half inch of frozen precip? Do our government workers really not have anything better to be doing? As far as the forecast, the radar returns are starting to fill in over most of the metro. The back edge of this storm is still clear out west of the state, so I could see the south of 494 metro still getting 3-6 inches when this is all said and done.

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  39. The problem is all this "filling in" on radar is RAIN, not snow! and I guess with temps in the upper 20's its freezing rain, weather is such bullshit(pardon my french), but seriously its cold enough outside for snow, radar has come back towards the metro core and its f'n raining, really, theres another bust not one sole said it would rain in the metro today on their forecasts last night, not one!

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    1. I am in Burnsville. It is RAINING lightly, but it's still RAIN!!!

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  40. Checking in from Princeton. It's snowing heavily. We have 7-8 inches already!! No bust here!!

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  41. Flat out sleetstorm here in Golden Valley, pings off the windows are pretty good, but I rather see snow.....won't lie this is a bummer!

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    1. same here in EP right now. its definitely "darken up" but sleet is mixed in for sure

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  42. I am in Rosemount. I was hoping that my first post of the season was going to be a joyful one about the heavy snow falling at the rate of 1-2 inches per hour, as the NWS was predicting. Instead, well, what is happening here? In a word....nothing. It's cloudy and a little breezy with some spritz of cold rain. As others from this area have reported, we have maybe half an inch of "crunch" (snow/ice). To borrow a phrase from the Isanti poster, down here "we are on the outside looking in".

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  43. I won't call this a forecast BUST (because there are locations getting hammered) but it's definitely a forecast MISS. This system is at least 50 mi north where everyone was saying it would be. What a disappointment!!!

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  44. Not so much as a flake in Rochester! Nice fall /cloudy day. Yet I'm not getting all worked up over weather.

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  45. It is breezy and is snowing lightly but steadily in Burnsville.

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  46. nothing in mankato and they just dropped the WWA

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  47. Winter Storm Warning has been CANCELLED for Shakopee, Burnsville. And to think that people were being bashed by other posters today as being "whiners" and "busters". It looks like those "whiners" and "busters" were correct. As someone else said, all you have to do is look at the radar trends. That isn't rock science. Better luck with the next storm south metro. May you at least receive enough snow to cover the grass down there.

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  48. I watched the video last night with Dr. Novak and Patrick Hammer. All I have to say is good job Dr. Novak. As for Patrick Hammer....top 5 November snowstorm at the MSP airport? Really?!?!

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    1. In fairness to Patrick, he mentioned the possibility of Top 5 before the latest model run came out -- the one that Dr. Novak provided hot off the press in the video. I'm guessing Patrick would have shot lower had he seen that model run.

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  49. I just want to point out that our local NWS office isn't the only NWS office that missed the forecast for all but the most northern parts of the TC metro. Last night the LaCrosse NWS was calling for 12+ inches for ALL of the TC Metro. Oooppps!

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  50. i wouldn't call it a bust but i would call it a bad forecast, this thing started out in southern MN, Northern Iowa just 3 days ago, and each day there was more and more disagreement with the track and totals. Last night the south metro still was in the mix for heavy snow and points south were still in line for 2-4 maybe 6 according to NWS and from what im hearing on here very little if anything has fallen south metro and points south.

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  51. Does anyone know why the Twin Cities metro area almost always seems to be the battle ground between the haves and the have nots when it comes to snowstorms, or does it just seem that way? Why isn't the battle ground around say Rochester, Mason City, IA or Brainerd? I know that the metro area is a relatively large area as far as humans are concerned, but geographically, in comparison to a storm I don't think it's more than the size of a blip on a radar.

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  52. I think it just seems that way. If the battle ground were between Albert Lea and Mason City, less people would notice or care.

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  53. To be fair, we still have 18 hrs. to go before you can "officially" call this a bust. Many forecasters were stating that this would come at us in 2 waves. Remember, the main disturbance is still hanging back over the SD/NE border at this time. This disturbance will reorganize over eastern IA tonight & likely dump some snow over so. MN & western WI overnight. I can't imagine the so. MSP metro will reach the absurd 8"-12"+ that some were predicting, but still, we have to wait.

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    1. There seems to be very little twist in the precipitation shield of this storm. The entire thing seems progressive. Will that still set up?

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    2. It should. You can vaguely see a mid/upper-level twist spinning east in NE now. This disturbance should quickly reorganize a surface low in eastern IA tonight. This should be the catalyst for a swath of accumulating snow from so. MN into WI overnight & into TUE am.

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  54. Overall looking at the metro this storm is weak, even with the shift overnight in the models, I was still hearing 8-12, 7-14, 6-12 for metro totals this morning, so if the low number is for the south metro like everyone has been saying this second wave talked about by Hammer and Novak better be a healthy one or there will be alot of fail forecasts.

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  55. Maybe a couple slushy inches just north of the airport in Minneapolis. At best? Yawn.

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  56. 29 degrees and freezing rain too light to show up on radar is now falling here in Faribault. Any surfaces above ground level are glazed.

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  57. WSW dropped for the entire metro. This is a bust.

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    1. I concur. This is a BUST!! The NWS, and others, missed this one for the majority of the metro in a big way. I just read the updated NWS 3:29 pm post. They are calling for possibly an inch of snow tonight through early tomorrow morning. If the NWS, and others, had called for the possibility of the dry tongue moving in aloft, of the storm tracking farther north, etc., as Dr. Novak did, then I would say that they warned us this could be a bust. However, Dr. Novak is the only forecaster that I am aware of that mentioned this possibilities. Somebody earlier today gave the NWS an F-. Being that Coon Rapids received 6 inches, I can't give them an F-, but I have no qualms in giving them a D-.

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  58. I'll keep it simple for everyone:
    what a BUST for the metro!

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  59. Before I get ripped as a whiner, I did post my doubts on this storm yesterday on the other thread. I'm not in the business of predicting amounts, but this waffler had a bust feel to it. The NWS deserves to get ripped for their 14" MSP prediction late yesterday night. At the same time, Novak was questioning the totals.

    I did lost the predictions last night, we will see who wins by tomorrow afternoon. But this will go down as a historical miss for the metro. Lots of back peddling will occur.

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  60. LAME. BUST. WEAK. MISS. DUD.UNDERACHIEVING.OVER-HYPED. Thats what Astro was for us, from Anoka county to I-90 was a failed forforecast.

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  61. Maybe we all focus on snow totals too much and not impacts? Some interesting perspective on "bust vs.no bust" from Paul Huttner's latest Updraft post.

    "Keep in mind that snowfall total model forecasts were spot on north of metro and delivered the storm’s expected 10″ to 16″+ totals in those areas. The storm intensity performed as expected, it just jogged about 40 miles north from most of Sunday’s model solutions. That happens in Minnesota winter storms. The metro was within that 40-mile change zone.
    While we all focus on snowfall totals, remember the combined impacts of snow, sleet and freezing rain in the metro and Minnesota on travel. Sadly the Minnesota State Patrol reports 1 dead and 37 injured today in crashes.

    That’s a high impact winter storm event for Minnesota. If any other news story caused 1 death and 37 injuries it would rightfully be the lead news story for days. Many forecasts including the Twin Cities NWS may have been low on final metro snowfall totals, but not on impact. A bust? Not really on impact of this storm event. The winter storm warnings were warranted."

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    1. Four people dead now.

      http://www.mprnews.org/story/2014/11/11/and-now-the-cold

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  62. Before we all jump on the Novak Bandwagon let me remind you of what he posted Sat.AM(roughly 40hrs before the flakes flew). His travel impact graphic had the TC and all of southern MN to Iowa under a moderate impact with nothing for the area with greatest snowfall, at the same time he says we have reached model consensus with ALL of southern MN including MSP in line for 4-8+. So though he saw the change late Sunday his forecasts leading to the event was off just like the others. What we have learned with this storm is nothing is set in stone till the precip starts flying and even then Mother Nature throws curveballs(ie. with the mixed precip. that fell today when it wasn't in anyones forecast). I love Novaks passion and knowledge of weather but he is not immune to criticism as well. Weather forecasting is tough and I applaud those who try!

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    1. Also his initial snowfall map had MSP in the 9-12" band and then his updated one from 5am this morning had MSP in the 6-9" range, last I checked MSP Intl had 2.5", still some work left to fall into the range but the radar is lighting up again, we'll see what happens.

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  63. Here's our storm debriefing video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ui5VqpYz88Q

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    1. Great Video Guys. Hey Tom, about my post below. I think I just found the moisture source for the Overnight run of the Nam. Could it be??

      http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/850mamforecast_zpsc49b38ba.gif

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  64. rich get richer, second wave of snow moving towards where the heavy snow was today.....

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  65. Regarding this evenings snow chances and why they will not be as heavy as some models were depicting as late as Sunday night.

    Radar Image at 10pm:
    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/radarimageat10pk_zpsf9a45e59.gif

    This what the Mesoanalysis Page showed at the SPC
    700mb. Notice how all the returns are in the base of the 700mb trough. http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/700mbat9pm_zps73ebcc7f.gif

    Now look at the surface map. A Nice little low pressure system up near the eastern IA border. Looks good right? http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/surfaceat9pm_zps188b7f88.gif

    But wait a minute shouldn't there be a bigger storm with warm moist air being thrown into the cold sector? Whats missing? Lets look at the 850mb level where the low level jet normally resides. The L shape icons that are plotted represent the wind profiles at that level, the bottom of the L is where the direction of the winds are blowing from. Notice that they are not out of the gulf, but instead the area of origin is over Texas which is not very moist. Therefore the air at 850mb is much dryer than what a Ideal set would be.

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/850mbat9pm_zps6245dc14.gif

    While some snow will fall the metro should get missed by the two different bands


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  66. Must admit I busted huge on that one.

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  67. Maybe it has already been said, but doesn't Yuhas deserve some praise for his prediction noted above in the KSTP graphic?

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    1. Yuhas did go with a 4-8" graphic shortly after issuing the image included in this post. Still, he was more restrained than most others.

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  68. For sure Jonathan Yuhas deserves an "A" for this one, he always gets heat for his forecasting and social media comments but he was spot on on this one, and that was Sunday morning while we were under a warning and alot of double digit numbers were being thrown around, he also performed way better then his partner Dave Dahl.
    Ok I was waiting till the storm ended to make my comments and ask a few questions.......I tallied 3.5" here in Golden Valley, so with all do respect abit disappointing when much higher ranges were forecasted by the experts and social media blogs, but Im a snowlover and will take anything we get......as for work we sold every snowblower,snow shovel and snowbrush we had so anytime it snows its good for business......as for cleaning this stuff I have to tell you its the worst 3.5" I have ever tried to shovel, so I waited till this morning to shovel(big mistake) there was a layer of ice on the bottom then snow then ice/snow mix with a little snow on top, I had to use a ice scraper to breakup the stuff just to shovel and push all these "chucks" of snow, my back is feeling it now.
    So my questions for the blog, feel free anyone to answer.......so the snowcover we now have, one will we have a white Thanksgiving(for those of us that got snow), temps look like they will be below freezing for awhile, also you always here snowcover aides with temps getting colder then usual, question is does the depth of the snowcover matter on how cold it can get, like the 3" I got as opposed to the higher amoints north of me. And last question with all the talk about north metro and south metro, first of all what constitutes the "metro" and second where exactly does the north metro lie and south metro(is it anything north of 694 and south of 494).
    Lastly I do agree with a previous poster you cant say this storm was a bust or dud, it was very much impactful when four deaths occur, tell the families of those that died that this storm was a bust!

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    1. Personally, I don't think the "metro" should encompass too much north, south, east and west of the 494/694 circle. What irks me is when forecasters pull totals from locations north of Anoka and Forest Lake (some even say St. Cloud!) and south of Lakeville to try to prove a case for their forecast being accurate.

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    2. But Bill, the "metro" is an inner 7-county and expanded 11-county area per the met council's definition. I can understand talking in terms of inside the loop and outside the loop, but they can't use the term "metro" and then disallow the ring of Lakeville - Waconia - Buffalo - Ramsey - Forest Lake - Hudson - Hastings.

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    3. Yea, you're probably right. I just wish -- for the sport of it -- that forecasters would also give a forecast for MSP airport proper so we could have a cut and dried comparison.

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    4. I'm sticking with bust. Of course people being killed or injured is terrible. But the risk the NWS runs is crying wolf. The first snow of every year is always terrible in the metro. I have a special F for MNDOT. They knew the storm was coming, yet the freeways at 6:15 Monday in the south metro were glaze ice. I saw 4 accidents on 494 alone. That contributed more to the accidents than the actual storm. No idea what MNDOT was thinking.

      All that said, the debate is what makes this blog so interesting. Even though Randy blew his estimates, I still enjoy his commentary.

      Better luck with the next storm everyone.

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    5. I agree about it being a bust. And I think a bust is a gut reaction based on collective forecasts, not something we decide based on putting a ruler in the snow (though I guess that helps).

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    6. "All that said, the debate is what makes this blog so interesting." I second Dave from Shakopee's comment. I love this blog and keep checking it prior to and during snow events. Long live Bill's Blog! The storm just past was one interesting piece of work from Mother Nature/Old Man Winter!

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  69. Next snow chance?, some say Saturday, NWS already has "likely" wording but as always the case in their discussion they say we have to wait and see and they already mention the models are trending it abit south. How much you want to bet it only affects the I-90 corridor and points south.

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  70. Love the way the AFD is written from the NWS this afternoon.....very detailed and broken down very well.....hope to see more of that!

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  71. GFS vs NAM once again, albeit very early. NAM has southern MN in the snow and GFS has the snow NEB down to Texas.

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  72. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 12, 2014 at 4:49 PM

    I was just coming onto the site to post the same thing that bigdaddy posted. I agree with liking the new layout of the Area Forecast Discussion. I wonder if that will stay. I hope so. It like how it is detailed and broken down, giving a better description of the models and what they are thinking. I wonder if this had anything to do with how the last storm played out?? Getting in the mind of a meteorologist is awesome!! As for the Saturday snow potential--Bring It!!

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  73. Dave Dahl mentions in his KSTP weather blog after a rather quiet and cold week ahead.......7-10 from now we could be affected by a series of storms with rather significant snow and claims to keep the shovels handy.......interesting Thanksgivng week weather on the horizon?......lets see!......but most outlets keep us cold enough for snow after a brief thaw over the coming weekend.

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    1. Big Daddy I was going to post a piece about it, but I see Andrew at the Weather Centre has nice write up so I will supply a link, its saves me bunch of time.

      http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/11/november-22-25-potentially-significant.html

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    2. Randy, very good piece on the potential, still aways out but even the NWS has it on their radar as it was mentioned in their AFD........I would be remiss if I didnt state that PWL probably may wet himself if he reads that blog post..Haha!

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  74. With all do respect Paul Douglas is a joke!, he often speaks out of both sides of his mouth. So in his star tribune blogpost last night/this morning he makes the following statement, "No big storms to foul up your travel plans between now and Thanksgiving". Thats 11 days, so in essence hes making a 11 day forecast with that statement. I often read his blog especially in the winter just to get his take on any potential storms and he oftens says things like beyond 7 days the forecast is inaccurate or you need a crystal ball or the picture becomes murky because there are a hundred weather models and which one do we go with. Now there very well may not be a big storm in the next 11 days but reading the last couple of posters the potential definitely exists, in fact the NWS mentions a possible significant snow event on the north and west side of a storm heading for the Great Lakes early next week. Its just frustrating reading ones blog when their constantly contradicting themselves.

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  75. Anyone see this? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2qwjQxIEAAhTUt.png:large

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    1. Yeah. Not super crazy on moisture, but a very strong low! Should be fun to track over the next six days.

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  76. Sam
    Paul Douglas is a joke for much more than just that. When the temperature is above average in Minnesota he will say that is the proof of global warming. When it is colder than average as it has been lately he will say you can not look out your window to determine global warming. Really? which way do you want it! He preaches global warming because he has a book to sell that predicts it. He preaches we must cut back, but that we is us not him. He drives the Escalade, has the lake home, boats, snowmobiles and other gas guzzling toys. I am not sure about global warming, it may be real but it amazes me that every solution includes the middle class losing jobs, cutting back and paying more taxes and fees. People are losing jobs because of increased emission standards. Those folks are fighting to send their kids to school and put food on the table. The celebrities and rich folks that carry the global warming torch can fly in their private planes and have multiple houses. I have asked Paul why that is OK. I am still waiting for an answer.

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  77. Honestly, not overly excited about this system for early next week. I know a lot can change between now and then, but right now the timing of things don't look great for a big snow event for us. It's a nice strong low that is coming up from the south, but I think the cold air is going to lag too far behind in order for us to get a decent amount of snow. If the system slows, or the cold air speeds up (the phasing occurs sooner), then this system will be a beasty one. Still going to watch it, but right now it's looking more like a rain to snow event. The main snow part would likely be from an inverted trough coming off the main low. Again, a LOT can change between now and then, as we saw with the last system. For now, watch and wait.

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  78. Bill, alot of chatter about a potential snow "event" for late in the weekend/early next week on social media. The good doctor Novak even threw out the "b" word to describe conditions by Monday. New thread warranted you think?

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    1. Yea, I'll set up a new thread a little later today. I'm getting lax! :-)

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  79. @Bill, don't bother with new thread, NWS says its a non-event and most of the precip will be east of us, and believe it or not after all this cold air we experienced any precip that follows will be in the form of rain. So maybe some icing issues if we cool down enough but no blockbuster news worthy storm.

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  80. There are some strong signals coming out of the Euro and the GEM that the period after thanksgiving will continue to be cold according to their runs on 11/19 0z. I tend to believe them as the GFS IMO is reacting to the weak EL Nino that seems to be setting up. Because its only a weak signal it's going to take the atmosphere time to adjust to that signal.

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    1. Black Friday looks brutally cold at this point........single digits to low teens looking possible!

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  81. 12z GFS starting to take on the look of the Euro for that system next week. As Novak pointed out, the dynamics and jet structure look favorable for a storm to develop close to home, and the new GFS is starting to look even more favorable. While exact locations can't be determined as of yet, this low looks like it's going to bomb out over the Great Lakes and possibly come close to stalling out. The wind machine will be going full force if current models are correct. I would expect the snow belts to become quite active, yet again, early next week. By the way, what's happening out in Buffalo, NY is nothing short of amazing. Unseasonably cold temps with still warm lakes and a good breeze coming off the lakes is the perfect breeding ground for lake effect snows. How would you like to put out a forecast that had a map of 70-80 inches of snow in 24 hours?! Wow!

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  82. You can't just look @ surface & low level features and assume that nothing is going to happen SUN into MON. A forecaster is a fool if they look at low level features at this stage of the game. Remember, we are a good 4 to 5 days away yet. You must, MUST look at the mid to upper level features first, especially this far out.

    All medium range models are advertising a highly amplified trough digging into the Plains states late this weekend. They are also showing a 300mb Jet structure that features divergence aloft along with a coupled jet structure very close to MN/WI & the Great Lakes. This alone is worth paying attention to.

    I truly feel that it is irresponsible for forecasters to ignore this storm right now & say nothing is going to happen. Granted, this storm system could easily miss the MSP metro entirely, but we need to consider more than just the metro. This is the weekend before Thanksgiving & there will be a ton of people traveling.

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  83. There is no doubt in my mind that this storm on SUN into MON will be a major Winter Storm somewhere in MN/WI. DLH, Hayward, BRD, MSP, EAU, etc. Hell, significant snow could fall in all of these communities. That is a long shot, but this thing has the potential to be a monster.

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  84. might want to start that new thread after all Bill :)

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