Wednesday, November 5, 2014

The Curtain is Closing (on >50 that is)

It seems a distinct possibility that the 50s have run their course in the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota. It's anyone's guess when we'll again see the likes of Tuesday's 53 degrees.

Forecasters were predicting an increasingly colder pattern with several chances of early November snow. Some speculated that accumulating snow might fall early next week; others were less bullish on the possibility.

Fox 9 Website

The Weather Channel

Star Tribune



73 comments:

  1. As they say in NY......"Faggitaboutit".....50's, we lucky to see 40's from what Im seeing and what people are talking about.....NWS mentions lows in the single digits next week....now that will be a shock to the system and they also have "snow likely" wording in their forcast over 5 days out for Mondays storm....they must really feel confident. Time will tell, but all indications seem to point to our rather mild and uneventful fall will be coming to a rather abrupt end.

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  2. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 5, 2014 at 12:03 PM

    Bring it!!!!!!

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  3. Hey @bigdaddy NWS no longer overly confident about Monday snow, likely wording is taken out replaced with 40 percent chance of rain and snow, trigger pulled to soon perhaps by NWS?

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  4. I don't think that the trigger was pulled too soon. Fact is, the Arctic airmass coming south next week is impressive & massive. It will be more than cold enough to support snow all of next week. However, trying to pinpoint exactly when snow will fall is foolish at this stage of the game. Generalizing is the way to go 5 days out.

    The real question is: How strong of a disturbance will ride across the tight baroclinic zone early next week? Nearly impossible to determine at this point, but a strong temperature contrast is often needed to create storms. Looks like we will have that.

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  5. I spoke to a friend of mine this afternoon. She is going to Kansas City this weekend and had plans to come back to MSP on Monday. That meant leaving KC soon after daybreak and making the drive back to MSP. I think I have convinced her to leave earlier on Sunday so she can get back by early Monday morning.

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  6. The real question is if we dont get the snowfall, how cold can it really get? I don't know how much of a snow pack is in southern Canada, but if there isnt a lot up there and little to none here, wouldnt that take some of the teeth away from the cold? After all we are not quite at the winter solstice and although weak, the sun still has a little bit of an effect to the surface.

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  7. Ok I have been looking at all the model runs. Lets discuss the various model runs and what they showed. The Flagship of the US models, the GFS shows snows over IA. However that model is about to be replaced by a new and improved GFS by 12/09/2014. The National Center for Environmental Protection (NCEP) has been running a parallel run of the new GFS to compare it to the old one. The new run is further north with this system. So toss the op GFS.

    I want to look at the data that comes in tonight and tomorrow morning before I get to excited about this system. However if the models remain consistent I would expect a major winter storm to impact the Metro area on south for Monday, with the bulls-eye near Rochester. The operational word in the last sentence is major. So ask the question is 6-8" major or not for Minnesota?

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  8. NWS has put up a graphic about Monday- http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/mpx/wx/File.png

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  9. Regarding the Sunday night/Monday storm, the NWS this morning is saying an inch or less for the southern metro. They are focusing on the accumulating snow to primarily be from I-90 and points south into northern Iowa. Metro snow fans keep your fingers crossed for a northern shift in the storm track.

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  10. I am so happy this blog is going strong as we move into a new winter season. From PWL's "Bring it!" to randyinchamplin to Novak and all the other familiar names who check in each season, along with a hats off to Bill for keeping it going...it feels like 'home' as we rev up for the first potential snow dump and the predictions/dissections afterwards kick in. Bill, you may be out in "Cali" but thanks again for remembering us here and living vicariously through the postings on your blog.

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    1. Thanks for the kind words! I must say it's a little strange to be "thinking" snow when it's 75 and sunny outside my doorstep. Weather is such a local thing.

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    2. I just want to second that comment. I found your blog a couple of winters ago and I have become so much more knowledgeable about weather from reading your posts and discussions (and watching the videos!). I've even gotten a few of my own questions answered. Thank you for continuing this from out in the warmth of Cali!

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  11. Well all the chatter and hype can stop now, after days of wobbling storm tracks and pictures of model output on twitter and facebook and alot wishcasting it appears folks down by I-90 and Iowa will live the high life if your into snow, for us here in MSP land it will just be another gaze at the radar and watch the snow slide just south with the dry air winning out, seen this happen so many times. So in ending if you haven't cleaned up the leaves in your yard yet you still have time beyond Monday to get it done, although you will freeze your butt off doing so because unlike the snow the cold is coming no matter what. Good day all.

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  12. With the accuracy of forecasts this far out, I think we can be certain where the bullseye WON'T be. The question is how far north or south will it shift?

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    1. If we use last year as a historical benchmark, I think Joel is exactly right. If the Twin Cities was in the bullseye 3- days out, we would most likely be OUT of the bullseye when the storm hit.

      So being out of the bullseye now actually gives me more confidence that there is a chance the Twin Cities will get the snow blast!

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    2. I agree as well. It would be far more surprising if the bullseye remained the same than if it changed.

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  13. Novak saying models are coming to agreement 4-8+ metro included GAME ON!

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  14. I am back. And a little older, too...

    I took a look at the 12Z models today. They are looking AMAZING, to say the least. Right now, they seem a little south, but the models seem to be trending the system north, so I think we will be pretty close to a direct hit.

    I am ready for the snows... and am totally exited.

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  15. 12z Euro goes right over the heart of the metro with a huge band of snow. 1-90 is far from set in stone.

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  16. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 7, 2014 at 4:39 PM

    OMG! I am kind of peeing my pants right now!! Shift it and Bring it!!!

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  17. The track and details of this are very far from being set in stone. There has been a lot of wobbling with this system, however now all the models are beginning a slow trend north. Initial thoughts of mine are the swath of snow will generally line up between I-94 and I-90. Although I don't put too much stock into the 18z model runs, that run on the NAM is a major shift from what it was earlier today and really lets the snow fly with this system. Before I start making any more permanent predictions, I'd rather wait till the main system comes onshore so the models have their full set of data and they can sort out those smaller details. If this system dissolves or just goes south, the cold is all but certain to be here next week. A snowpack will have a big difference on how cold we actually get, but even the areas with no snow will likely have highs into the 20's. If tonight's 00z runs really hone in on a location, I'd expect a watch to be issued overnight for at least southern MN and western/southern Wisconsin. It may include the far southern metro areas as well, especially if the track continues to bump north.

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    1. Nice to see you back Duane.

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  18. I like the probability based graphic from NWS today. Its a type of graphic that many of us have wanted to see used more.

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  19. Why no Winter Storm Watches out yet??? We are supposely 48 hours from this storm affecting the area, there should be watches up somewhere by now, watches are meant to warn the public of the potential and they can be expanded or reduced if need be if model runs dictate, especially when its the first storm of the season.

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    1. I suspect the overnight shift will issue them tonight. I'm thinking the northward shift today has prevented the watch from coming out this afternoon. We're also closer to 60 hours away...especially for the metro.

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  20. All indications are this is still a minor event for MSP metro, on the order of 1-3", big show will be south of town especially now that Mike Siedal from the Weather Channel is coming, I can see bust all over this, like Mike doing live shots from Maple Grove off 494 or in Bloomington outside MOA with just flurries dancing around and then showing live radar on the screen with the heavy snow down in Mankato and Rochester.

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    1. I disagree, when looking at model output while not perfect, one has to look at which model has been the most consistent. In this case it has been the JMA or Japanese Model. It has had the highest precip amounts over the metro and has really not wavered much at all. The 11/07 12z run of the Euro agrees, by the way the Euro while not perfect is the best model we have. The rest of the models seem to have been moving north with today's runs.

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  21. Patrick Hammer last night in his video with Novak and the Minnesota Forecaster reminded me to consider climatology. At his time of the year it's very difficult to get a major winter storm in Northern IA. The 11/08 0z run of the NAM is a thing of beauty if you like bright colors over the metro. The question is will it move further north??? Time will tell.

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  22. Even though we're still 2-2.5 days out, I'll put money on the metro, or places very near the metro, picking up 8-12"+. This storm has everything it needs, including the classic storm track that brought MSP the heaviest snow events over the past several years.

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    1. Randy..I agree, it's nice to see you here. I'm looking forward to your winter forecast, mine was put out on this site in the previous thread. I getting more and more confident that my forecast of -2 to -4 may be to conservative. I have not put out a snowfall forecast this year as of yet. All of my analog years point to below normal snowfall, although I think they are right for temps I question the snowfall comparison. I'm leaning towards about 68" here in the metro

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  23. The updated discussion from NWS at 8:36pm is really starting to raise the threat for the metro.

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  24. I read it too.....as PWL says BRING IT.....NWS wanted to pull the trigger on a Watch but the other offices didnt....discussion says 12+ in places.....ok I am now excited.

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  25. Is this thing going to keep shifting north until the bullseye is actually St. Cloud/Brainerd or is it settling in now? I have plans Monday night...would be nice to know whether or not to plan for a cancellation.

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  26. Did Winter Storm Watch criteria change or something?, my point forecast calls for 5-11" snowfall starting late Sunday in Brooklyn Center without a winter storm watch alerting the public, I believe its wrong to keep waiting to get it just right, watches are just that a watch to alert the public that severe winter weather is expected but not imminent especially since its the first potential snow of the season and it falls on a Monday which will affect commutes and school openings. Over the years Ive seen watches and warnings expanded and reduced, watches can be upgraded to a warning or advisory, in my opinion they are waiting to long to get it just right.

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    1. The National Weather service has indicated that they do not have enough confidence, due to the shifting models, to issue a Winter Storm Watch... yet.

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    2. We are still 48 hours from the start of the heaviest snowfall. Issues happen with public confidence when watches get issued for 6-10" and eventually get replaced by an advisory for 1-3".

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  27. My preliminary forecast is up at chasetheplains.com. MSP remains smack dab in the bullseye!

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  28. The criteria didn't change, however reading the discussions from the NWS offices, they wanted to get one more model run in before issuing any headlines. These northern shifts have thrown them for a bit of a loop, and they didn't want to jump the gun on anything. Seeing the newest stuff, it looks like they will probably have enough now to issue that watch at some point today. The St. Cloud area will probably want to really pay attention to this. I'd hold off on traveling anywhere, but ultimately that decision would be up to you. NAM and GFS are pretty aggressive with their snow totals. Waiting on the others now to also lock in on it.

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  29. That NAM model is making me giddy... It is really turning up the heat...

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    1. It is projecting well over 1.00 in of liquid precip... which means 10-14 inches of snow. Now THAT would be cool.

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  30. Your sending mixed messages by forecasting 5-11" without issuing a watch, like I said watches can be expanded or reduced, they are waiting to make a perfect watch area, but their forecast is for warning level snows, if thats not a mix message I dont know what is. Again especially for it being the first potential snowstorm, public needs time to prepare like put on snow tires,repair snowblowers, buy snow removal products, hook up snow plows, put in snow stakes,etc. etc., if theres a watch out people will move quicker/faster to get these things done not to mention to possibly line up some sort of daycare/babysitting if school is out and parents need to work.

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    1. The "public" knows it's going to snow. It's all anybody's been talking about since Wednesday. The question is how much. If a watch is issued tonight, that gives people all day tomorrow to take care of things. And snow tires? It's one November storm. People don't need to prepare for mountain travel just yet.

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    2. Not everyone is in tune with the weather, you would be surprised the amount of people that will wake up Monday morning and be like "what the hell is this".

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  31. Its much more important to get it right and issue a watch when the confidence level is high enough. If you issue too many watches and say 6-10 inches of snow and it doesn't verify, then you get issues about the public in general not reacting to the watch/warning. I'd much rather then wait until the confidence level is high enough to issue the watch.

    As AB said, most people already know about the snow coming and a magical watch issued by NWS won't change it for the people who don't know.

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  32. Guys you are clearly missing the point, their CURRENT forecast here in Brooklyn Center is for 5-11" thats their official forecast, so then your okay with a busted forecast or a continued changing forecast then a expanded or reduced watch area, I get it that some people don't listen to watches/headlines, but it makes it more official if a watch is out because all news outlets,blogs,radio stations lead their weather reporting with stating the NWS has put out a watch which means severe winter weather is expected. Im fine with no watch if your not forecasting warning level snows, whats wrong with just saying in the point forecast that snow is likely without attaching snow amounts.

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    1. We aren't missing your point. We can all see current forecasts. But it's still at least 36 hours away. Chill pill, man.

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    2. I get it @Sam and totally agree with you if others on here don't. Point is if you have no coinfidence in issuing a watch why are you forecasting snow amounts that exceed warning levels, I get it!

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    3. @AB, the 36 hours should have no bearing on the matter, like Sam and Anonymous stated if your confident enough to put out a forecast that reads 5-11" a winter storm watch should be attached to it.

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    4. They put totals out based on current projections, but they have been very clear that their confidence is still LOW. If they were to put out the watch last night only for it to not materialize over the majority of the watch area, you same people would be criticizing them for their "bust."

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    5. @AB, so are you okay with lets say for argument sake at the next update for NWS their forecast reads for Monday cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow! after forecasting 5-11" earlier in the same day. Your point about coinfidence in a watch holds no water when their able to state large amounts of snowfall in a forecast. I agree they have waited to long to post a watch, I have read the discussions the past few days and they wanted to hoist a watch last night but I believe they are being swayed by other nearby offices.

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    6. Watch is up for all but the extreme southern counties of the NWS Twin Cities region. Surrounding offices have not yet issued advisories.

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  33. Guys.....we can all calm down now and discuss when a watch should or should not be put out on a different day......because the NWS has put the entire metro under a watch for 8-12".....SEND IT!

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  34. Can you say washboard roads Tuesday onward if MNDOT doesn't get the roads all clear.

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  35. I don't like how far north this has moved since yesterday.

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  36. Ok it's time. In honor of bringing Floyd of Rosedale back to MN in a very convincing way, it time to bring a snowfall forecast to MN.

    As most of you know the models have had a horrible time consolidating on a solution. Almost all of them have been taking the heaviest QPF north on one run than south on the other run. However there is one model that has been extremely consistent and that is the JMA which is run by the Japanese, normally I only use that model for seasonal forecasting but for this event I am using it. The JMA has consistently shown the highest QPF from the northern metro to St Cloud.

    So lets look at the Euro. The 11/08 0z run had the heaviest snows and QPF north of the metro, but the 12z run moved a bit to the south.

    The Nam was also north but with the 18z run on 11/08 it moved a bit south.

    The Models that had shown the heavy snow to the south have now shifted somewhat to the north with their 18z runs.

    So my thinking is that the models are now starting to converge on a JMA solution, and that includes the UKMET which is one of my favorite models.

    So for the southern metro I expect 5-7" and that would included the Elko to Lakeview area. The core of metro between the 494-694 corridor should see between 8-10" including MSP which should see about 9.5". Northern Hennepin and southern Anoka county should see between 10-13". The Jackpot should be near ST Cloud to Hinckley that could see 13-16".

    I reserve the right to change this forecast when the models do converge, not the location but the amounts. It's very difficult to find Skew T plots of these model's as compared to the GFS and Nam, so temp profiles thru the columns are still in question.

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    1. Love the specificity of your MSP prediction!

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    2. Wow, I'm very humbled. I had no idea how close that forecast was to what the NWS Twin Cities had put out.

      http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/NWSsnowfallforecast_zpsc3e4e2e1.png

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  37. The 09/0z run of the nam

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/instantweathermaps_zpsc00b9b12.gif

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  38. Winter Storm Warning is now out for the entire metro area. MPX pulled the trigger, rightfully so.

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  39. Paul Douglas is showing a more northerly shift with lower numbers (4-8 over the metro). Still plenty of snow, but perhaps not as debilitating as what NWS is calling for. Where is this difference from?

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    1. AB he highlights a model run that shows 4-8. Here is his text:

      "And the rumors are true: it's going to snow tomorrow. The air and ground will be cold enough for that snow to stick. Traffic may be a mess by afternoon. A plowable snowfall is likely; my concern is will it be 5 inches, or closer to a foot? Right now I'm leaning toward the latter (greater) solution, with some 6-12" amounts in the metro, maybe more just to the north/west of MSP"

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  40. Yikes!!!! both the GFS and Nam have locked on to the JMA solution, we couild see 12-16 across the Northern metro. I this trend continues we could be in record territory.

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  41. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 8, 2014 at 10:42 PM

    This is getting just too much. It seems like the storm is massive enough, without MSP being on the border of a sharp cutoff of snow that many will see quite a pile of snow. Amazing since we just entered November and it was so warm this fall. Who would have thought! This is just too good to be true. It seems like the wobble will settle right over the metro. That's my kind of wobble!! Bring it!!

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  42. Nah, NWS didn't wait to long to hoist a watch did they, seriously tell me a time that anyone on here has seen a watch be hoisted 6 hours before a warning, I never have, they are trying really hard to make up for lost time, especially when they use wording like "roads can be impassable if you get stuck". They won't admit it nor will most of you here, but I can see what their doing and read between the lines. Be safe all.

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    1. Right on @Sam, so true! I have never seen it either and I have followed weather for over 30 years and living in many snowy cities.

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  43. So is the storm shifting more north.....Jonathan Yuhas at KSTP has the MSP airport in a 2-4" band and the rest of the 494/694 loop in a 4-6" band, he has the 10+ band north of Anoka county. But NWS has metro area in a 10-14", and Weather Channel has us in a 8-12" band.....so who do we believe?....time will tell.

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    1. The trend has been north and even watching the future casts of a few stations, they seem to be ovepredicting snowfall relative to the model. Some show a lot of mixing in the south metro with snow not really getting going until late Monday afternoon. But as I am not someone who sits and studies the models, I don't know if the models have settled in and Yuhas is going against them or if they are continuing to wobble.

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  44. Now that we’re convinced of tomorrow’s significant snowfall, is this part of the effect of bombogenesis and do you think we’ll be seriously affected by the predicted deep freeze to follow? -MM ;-)

    http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/polar-plunge-arctic-air-could-impact-250-million-americans/

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  45. I'm not sold yet. Storm seems to be moving a little further north and temps could be an issue initially over southern metro. Could be a bust as far as a huge storm for at least half of the metro. True is will be a disruptive first snowfall, but I'm not sold it will be a huge 8+" storm across metro.

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  46. I agree way too much hype surrounding this storm, it will end up being your run of the mill 6" snowstorm for the metro area, if you can even call it a storm for the metro, rain/mix is moving further north and will cut into totals, yes most everyone will see snow but this wont be severe in the metro, points from St. Cloud to northern Wisconsin will see a STORM play out the metro will be an average deal, everyone throwing out stupid model numbers and then say WOW after seeing them is not for the core metro, we will survive and the day will go on just will take a little extra time to get there is all.

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  47. So it seems like we have a media vs NWS battle happening. NWS seems by far the most aggressive (although I have seen every stations forecast). The AFD from Chanhassen seems very confident.

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    1. Yup, NWS keeps upping totals (and assuming ALL snow), but the news media seems to be going more conservative, in the 4-8 inch range. Then there is Paul Douglas who has no shame in flat-out saying "WE DON'T KNOW." He has outlined a scenario that brings 4-8 and one that brings a crippling storm; said his gut is to go with the bigger solutions and that the current model mean is about 10 inches.

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