Sunday, January 3, 2016

Mid- and Late-Week Snow Possbilities? Vikings Playoff Weather? Arctic Push Next Weekend?

Since the Boxing Day storm that delivered substantial snow amounts to some, the weather has been winter blasé. The forecast appears to hold out possibilities for snow on Wednesday and Friday. And what will the weather be like for the all-important Vikings-Seahawks game on Sunday?

Use this space to discuss your thoughts.

71 comments:

  1. Rain, rare to hear that in Minnesota in January but not unprecedented. With temps near or above freezing from Wednesday into Saturday, more rain then snow will fall. Somebody might get some sloppy inches, but again as with most every system this fall/winter an all out snowstorm for the entire CWA will not occur either because of
    too much warm air causing rain/snow line issues as in this case or like previous
    storm with sharp gradients.
    As for the Vikes the game will be plenty cold(of course cold air after moisture leaves),they will need all the help they can get from mother nature to help stop the Seahawks.

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  2. Every outlet that I check with is now stating that an arctic front will come through late Saturday. They are also stating that Sunday will be very cold with highs in the single digits and that that will be the beginning of a string of bitter cold days lasting through next week. However, I just heard Dave Dahl on the radio saying 28 degrees for a high on Saturday, 8 degrees for a high on Sunday and 22 degrees for a high on Monday. A one day arctic blast? Clearly, one day in the single digits followed by a day in the twenties is not a string of bitterly cold days. Jonathan Yuhas' text forecast on KSTP is calling for a high of 5 degrees on Monday. Also, Jonathan says that the arctic air will move in on January 10th and stay through at least January 18th. Did DD just drastically misspeak or is he running around in the left field corner trying to find his way...again?!

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  3. NWS suggesting reinforcing shot of arctic cold on Tuesday to last 3-4 days. Do not know where Yuhas is getting the eight day period from. Maybe he is trying to out-hype Dahl. Still many days away so specifics should not be taken as cast in stone. Just be advised that something is going to change for the colder next week.
    Great to see that Big daddy is off to a good start on the snow challenge this year.

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  4. @ Steve at 2:02 pm. Going with a new post instead of a reply.

    Most every outlet than is probably quoting Mos guidance for the GFS. Which shows a high of +2°. The problem is Mos guidance is almost always to warm with this kind of strong cold front coming in. My initial forecast for Sunday's game at kick off. -5° with a wind chill of -25°. I reserve the right to change that as time goes on.

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  5. Prepare for the Arctic hammer! Too hyped? Well, it is going to get cold. Colder than anything we've ever seen? No. We go through these Arctic blasts pretty much every winter. Wind chills will be miserable, cars will struggle to start. Pretty much the usual Minnesota cold snap. How long this cold snap will last is still in question, but the cold air is coming.

    As far as the highs go for Sunday, it is very possible those highs are seen at midnight, with temps falling through the day. It all depends on how fast the cold front comes through. The Vikes game is going to be a cold one. Wind chills will make it feel like double digits below zero.

    Lastly with the snow, I think the mixing will be more limited than initially thought. As the cold air does settle in, any little moisture left over should create some snow showers. It will be in a very favorable environment for fluffy, snow globe type snow. The amounts are in question too, but those details will be sorted out in the coming days. As of now though, it doesn't look like a huge deal.

    Lakes should get some decent ice on them after this. Stay warm all.

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  6. Dave Dahl update:
    He is calling for a high of 8 on Sunday, when most everyone else I hear won't get above 0, some others have said -5°, I wonder if that's the midnight temp(high) he's going with....also he's going with teens most of next week when most are going with single digit highs. Kinda weird to see Dave not the most aggressive. For snow he says "several inches for Wednesday to Friday", but nothing specific.

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    1. Dahl is also still calling for highs in the mid-teens on Monday with snow while everyone else (including ultra conservative Kare 11) is calling for highs in the low single digits and partly cloudy. Yes, weird for sure.

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  7. I hope we get hardly any snow this week then it stays super cold for weeks so that we still won't get snow. I'd take brutal cold over snow any day.

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  8. Bill ask Dr. Novak if his model of choice is the NAM. Novak is calling for significant snow on Friday(probably due to the high amounts on last nights NAM). But all other outlets just calling for a nuisance 1" or 2.

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  9. GFS which nailed the last storm isn't showing much snow at all. Doesn't mean a other model is better this time.

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  10. 1.1 inches between today and Saturday.
    That's my prediction.

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  11. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 6, 2016 at 5:33 PM

    I would love to hear what people think about the definition of waht a "significant" snow is? There was some chatter on Novak's Twitter page between he and someone else that resulted in Navak saying that 2-4" is significant. I know this is a subjective question, but I would argue that 2-4 inches isn't significant. I also think there is a difference between significant and substantial. Substantial would be a storm that has the chance to produce a foot or more of snow. Significant would be a greater than 6" storm. Your thoughts??

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    1. Since living in MN, I have decided a significant snow fall needs to hit the 4-6" range in my opinion.

      I have spent most of my winters in lake effect snow areas so 4-6" as significant is for snow events here and not in Michigan.

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    2. I agree with you PWL...
      Substantial to me would be foot plus
      Significant is 6+
      Decent snowfall 3-6
      Nuisance... up to 3"
      This is just my opinion, but that's how I would view snowfalls.
      And it would be nice to at least get one significant snowfall this winter...one thing that I do miss from my days on the east coast is the Noreasters that would consistently dump a foot plus...the last one I could remember here was the Domebuster one!

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    3. PWL, for those of us that love weather your definitions may be spot on, which may account for about 10% of the population. But for the other 90% it usually comes down to societal impacts and will it effect my travel plans. Therefore I would argue that 2-4" is in fact significant.

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    4. I agree with both PWL and Randy...it all comes down to timing. There have been snows of 1" that have been significant only because they happened to be timed during a rush hour or event and turned every road into a parking lot.

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  12. Odd sort of micro-band of snow over Fargo is expected to drop 6-10 inches of snow tonight. Can someone explain why this is to me, and how it formed?
    Thanks!

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    1. and why were not lucky enough for something like that to happen in the metro.

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  13. A whole .4" of snow yesterday, so after one week we sit at .4" of snow for the month, at this rate the month will delivery 1.6" of snow for January. Wake me up when winter arrives!

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  14. Sections of NW MN have picked up 13 inches of snow, and counting, from a narrow band of heavy snow that has set up there. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect. Bummer it's not here in the metro!

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    1. We are not that lucky or fortunate Joe.

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  15. The NWS in Fargo, ND, provided an interesting summary of this event:

    http://www.weather.gov/fgf/2016_01_07_StormSummary

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  16. Nice light to moderate snow for the last three hours....1.5" down in St. Louis Park.

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  17. 34 in Mpls. Half of what we got has already melted, which wasn't much in the first place.

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    1. Definitely not a "significant snow".

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    2. Not only was it not significant, it was warm and a lot melted and roads are mainly wet, also that's the last snow for quite awhile now, could last till the end of the month. A whooping 2" for January and we had someone harping in last thread that this will be a typical January. Yeah because typical Januarys have lack of snow and warm air to limit snowfall. Yeah cold is coming but not anymore snow and this cold will just average out the 8° we are above for January thus far.

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    3. It's January 8 and you're closing out the monthly snowfall totals? LOL. Yikes. Good call though...really.

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  18. Regarding my forecast for Sunday's game at kickoff earlier in this blog on 01/04 at 6:37 pm. I'm holding fast at the -5° for kickoff. Looking at real time temps just west and south of Hudson Bay, they have dropped considerably in the last few hours and are currently around -25° F. With the NAO and A0 being as negative as they are, there is almost no chance that this cold air will escape to the east instead it will be driven south. Now for sure it will moderate some, but keep in mind that there is a fresh snow pack to our NW which will keep the temps from moderating to much. Therefore I think the NAM forecast is way to warm with it's temp profile. So the way I see it kickoff temps between -3° and -5° are more likely than above 0°.

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  19. Well, the "real winter" as Huttner loves to say, is coming. I'm sure he'll be standing outside Sunday in the brutal cold. Uh-huh.

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  20. I love how Paul Douglas is so sure about everything including things not weather. Here's his post tonight.

    "Beast Mode? You Must Be Talking About the Weather
    Seattle Seahawk Marshawn Lynch should be back for Sunday's wild-card playoff game with the Vikings. He may wish he was still back in Seattle, where 30 (above zero) is considered a "cold front"."

    Here the Strib story on the front page.... at the same time....

    "Seahawks rule out Lynch for Sunday's game against the Vikings"

    Ooops. Seriously and fairly, the guy's credibility has some serious issues.

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    1. To be fair, the articles PD writes for the Strib are done hours earlier. The news about Lynch broke about 10:15-10:30pm if I recall. Even earlier in the day Carroll said Lynch would be playing on Sunday. *I think Lynch wussed out and is expecting SEA to win then he can play in warmer wx next week. :-)

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  21. The snow was a disappoint I am sure as warm air stayed in place ... I think Mother Nature was holding as long as she could before Old Man Winter gave her the heave-ho last night. Something folks may not have noticed on Thursday into Friday morning is we had some of the highest Air Quality Index (AQI) readings since the summer. A combo of factors: low clouds, SE flow, warm air just above surface, stagnant flow, etc., all helping to trap particulates in the air. The lowered visibility wasn't just the fog and precip but an actual haze embedded. It is actually pretty common during the winter season during these wx patterns. Anyway ... cold air is upon us -- the Midnight high (22°F at MSP) occurred and falling temps to our current 6-8° F and holding steady during the day and falling tonight. Gonna be chilly tomorrow at TCF Bank Stadium for the Vikings game! Old Man Winter was sorta kind as he plans to release round two of the Arctic air intrusion on Mon night/Tuesday. Winds will be up and ushering in the good stuff --- wind chills will be a treat.

    Daniel (@DDwx)

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  22. Nice catch DDwx. Parts of this winter have been driving my wife nuts. She has asthma and can tell when the air is bad. Some nice sunny days with a breeze will sure help clear things out. Of course then there is the cold air...

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  23. Just took a look at the website's for Kare, WCCO and KSTP for next Sat thru Monday evening. All three are way to warm for that period, the closest to reality would be KSTP, but they are still to warm. This time frame looks to be the coldest of the year. There is a 50/50 chance that we will not exceed 0° for a three day period.

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    1. Randy ... your thoughts are correct. As they would say in the ATL, "it goin' to be coold". The source of this air is straight from poles/Arctic that has been bottled up for quite some time. Sunday's -11° F fcst from NWS is a tell tale sign of what is to come as values could be lower once we get closer. If the Vikings were playing at TCF Bank Stadium it could approach the all-time coldest NFL game. This past Sunday's was impressive though -- I dressed appropriately and had the right 'state of mind' as Bud Grant would say and had a blast -- except the last 25 seconds of the game. :(

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  24. This is the kind of weather that drives people from this state. Horrible.

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    1. What weather? There's no active weather. Only 2.5" of snow has fallen and the month is about half over, nothing to write home about there. If your talking about the cold its only a few days of polar pain, dress accordingly and there will be no problem, its not like you have picnics in January. It bogs my mind when people say how can you live like that in such a cold place, you go from warm house to car to your destination, not a big deal people.

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    2. This is the type of winter weather one should expect during winter in MN.

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  25. WPC snow probability forecast is 0% for an inch or greater for this week's snow (Thu/Fri) for MSP.

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    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  26. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 13, 2016 at 5:47 PM

    Sam, could you back off? The National Weather Service is actually predicting a little bit of snow and Novak has had several tweets about snow possibilities for late Thursday into Friday. Be productive in your comments.

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    1. Agree with you. I'm going to delete Sam's comment. That's not the level of discourse I seek to maintain in the blog.

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    2. Wow! Sensitive much? My comment did not include one personal remark. But people in last tread call someone a troll and butthurt and that's acceptable? Stay consistent Bill.

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    3. I should have deleted those comments in the last thread. Sometimes it's just tone, not just personal remarks. Anyway, onward and upward.

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  27. Bill, you need to be a bit fairer. The impression is that anybody that is not part of the clique cannot criticize otherwise they get called names, and as Sam said you tolerated it.
    You either uphold freedom of expression or you should consider a closed blog whereby only those you trust can comment.
    It's fine either or, but the way it is now there is the feeling that not everybody has thecsame chance of expressing their opinion.

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  28. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 14, 2016 at 5:54 PM

    I didn't think we would be talking wind chills near -40 this winter at all. The reason? That seems like a magic number for schools to be closed and, other than the winter two years ago, we hardly ever see metro schools closed for cold. I thought there would be no way this year. But since Martin Luther King Jr. Day is on Monday, most schools won't be in session anyway. Interesting winter, for sure!

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  29. Well, El Nino seems to have up and died :(

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    1. Hooray!! Now let's get some snowstorms in town!

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  30. I'll take this cold any day over snow. Bring it, cold! Keep that storm track pushed south!!!!!!!!!!!

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  31. I struggle to understand how 3 days of sub-zero cold constitutes big news in Minnesota in January.
    Someone please enlighten me.

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    1. Because their bored, there's no active weather to talk/hype about so they focus on the cold.

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  32. Mark my words, we will hit 40 before the months up and the next time significant snow is a possibility we will have warmed into the 30's creating precip type issues with more mixing or rain. This cold will be a distant memory as well as wasted cold with no moisture,even when temps creep up next week it will be dry. The boring continues and to think January is suppose to be the snowiest month.

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    1. I hope @randyhill does not read this post otherwise he is going to ridicule you as he did with me when I dared to say that we would challenge the least snowiest winter on record.
      He said a typical January was coming...
      LOL

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  33. Haha, the anons keep at it even while the weather is benign. Maybe instead of complaining you could use this boring stretch of weather to learn weather forecasting so that when the next storm rolls around (if ever) you can pitch in and then we can harp on you when you're wrong. :)

    DISCLAIMER: Not to call you anons uneducated again... don't want to hurt your feelings.

    I don't recall Randy's exact prediction, but outside of snowfall this feels like a pretty typical January to me. We average 12" (correct me if I'm wrong) in a typical January so it can really only take one system to catch up there.

    Sadly, looks like all the fun is happening out east in the near future. Imagine all the weenies on this board if we had signals like the east coast does...

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  34. I just got back to town from a short getaway. I checked to see what the temperatures were during my absence the past 4 days. I see that MSP had a high of 13 this past Saturday? I recall that the predicted high for Saturday was -2. Did the high of 13 occur at midnight?

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  35. educated anonymousJanuary 18, 2016 at 8:43 PM

    @Neil, Since you like to attack anonymous any and all, why don't you come with a little perspective yourself. If your going to make a claim have some reliable information or else you sound like an anonymous with a name. This January has not been typical, including today 7 of 18 January days have been below average and 8 of the 18 nights have been below average so if you do the math 11 days have been above average and 10 nights have been above average, more then half in both instances. Let me guess you would like to know the averages for January, the highs range from 23-25 and lows range from 7-8 for the entire month. As for snow only 2.6" has been recorded at MSP with nothing higher then a 20% of snow for the rest of this week, which leaves only one week to gain average in that department. As for temps they climb back over average by Saturday and stay near or above average the rest of the month. So in ending it is NOT a typical January as you may think, how is that for some perspective. Real numbers!

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  36. Yeesh! Again, I don't mean to ruffle feathers, I'm just having some freaking fun. Look at the anon comments. "Because their bored" "He said a typical January was coming...LOL" - Do you see why I joke?

    Thanks for the numbers, they're interesting. I just thought it felt like a typical January so far. Your numbers are about a 60/40 difference, so that seems "typical" enough for me. I know we won't get up to average for snow. (Fine by me!)

    Time to focus on the east coast for a while. I'll check back here when something interesting happens. :/

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    1. Thought the same thing. 60/40 is not so atypical.

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  37. Actually, you guys want to see some irresponsible forecasting? Check this out:

    https://twitter.com/SwVirginiaWx/status/689291134716215301

    You guys want to talk about hype? Hahaha.

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    1. Wow, that's pretty shameful!

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    2. Still sticking with these blizzard forecasts. This will be fun too watch. https://mobile.twitter.com/SwVirginiaWx/status/689964927403040768

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    3. NWS saying 12-24 for DC. That should shut things down for a while.

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  38. Washington will get smothered in a Noreaster. Thank Flying Spaghetti Monster we don't get that kind of snow here.

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    1. I wished we did...it would be AWESOME!!

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    2. No. It wouldn't. A lot of people will probably die and it will cause a huge negative economic impact.

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  39. new thread for possible snow event sunday-monday?

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  40. Get a grip Anon. Would you get pissy if he was excited about a sunny week? The sun causes cancer you know. This site is so incredibly odd, and so different than other weather forums. People are here because they're interested in and excited about weather. Why can't some of you understand that?

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  41. what is interesting that they are supposed to get temps inthe mid 40s next week.
    So whatever falls will melt pretty fast and cause potential flood problems.
    I'd rather have 2 inches at a time that stay on the ground all winter than 25 inches that melt within a week.

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  42. New thread posted: http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2016/01/interesting-weather-around-corner.html

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