Thursday, December 5, 2019

Major Snow Event Before First Arctic Surge?

Bitter cold is just a few days away. Will the arrival of the bone-chilling air be heralded by a significant snowstorm? We wait and watch.

93 comments:

  1. It's so quiet on here after people started posting at 'the end' of last week's storm/ anticipating 'this week's' snowfall. What do you all think? What are the models showing? 3" or 6" in the metro and environs? Looks like we have a shot at breaking some cold temp records mid-week, too. "Bring it!"

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  2. According to the NWS this morning, the axis of the heaviest snow for Sunday night/Monday has shifted north to I-94.

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  3. Looks like the bulk of the accumulating snow is now forecasted to move north of the metro for Sunday night/Monday.

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  4. Surprise, surprise!
    As usual, TC always miss the brunt either to the South or to the North.

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    1. Really? MSP had a direct hit two storms ago. Then again a fully grown man feels the need to start something not a surprise.

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  5. Novak kinda poo-pooing snow for the metro says ice and token 1-3” of snow. The action as usual goes north!

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  6. We need to be prepared for some surprises though. When considering the actual surface low track & the assumption that energy is quickly shifting southeast, I won't be surprised if a couple of heavier, narrow bands of snow develop across so. MN/WI. These bands would contain 1"+/hour rates. In other words, some lucky locations could easily pick-up a quick 3"-5" of snow within a short window.

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  7. I find it interesting the southern end of the band is intensifying when other models don't show it, or if they do it isn't for a while still.. Perhaps Novak could be onto something.

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  8. Radar sure shows a decent band of white stuff on our doorsteps, doesn't it? An-ti-ci-pation.........

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  9. Obviously nothing to write home about but it did the trick...almost 3” in the west metro...the new snow brightened things up...covered the old dirty snow and even some grass patches. Now comes some cold...I have to imagine with temperatures staying mostly below freezing chances are high on a White Christmas

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  10. I thought this snow was supposed to be done now. I'm in goodhue county and it's coming down pretty decent still.

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  11. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 16, 2019 at 8:55 AM

    Wow. This is so boring. Does anyone see any storms on the horizon? Just give me something to hope for. Anything. Bring that.

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    1. When I look at 'time and date' two weeks out forecasts, there are potentials around Christmas and then again a couple of days later, but it often looks like that and then fizzles. :+( It HAS gotten very quiet/boring overall, agreed! So hope and dance and maybe something with a bunch of inches will fall again once or twice the rest of December.

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  12. No, no storms on the horizon.
    And to add insult to injury, temperature close to 40s for the next 2-3 weeks.

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  13. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 18, 2019 at 5:00 PM

    Alright! Finally talk of an active weather pattern from Christmas onward. Let's go! Bring it!!!

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    1. You must be looking through the bizaro forecast models, or some good dope. Try again.

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    2. Must have looked at one GFS model run and ignored all others.

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  14. Don't see any sign of active weather anytime soon.

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  15. sure looks to me like the gfs and euro are looking into something late next week

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  16. Why don't we all put our dancing shoes away for a week to let people get to their holiday destinations and back in a safe manner.Then, after the holidays are over we all can get back into the snow and cold. I, for one, are thankful for the break in the action. Happy holidays or Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you all.

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    1. Well said, Greg. Couldn't agree with you more. (Except I'd take a little more of a break post holidays!)

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  17. GFS pushing out some big number for next weekend.... dance away

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  18. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 23, 2019 at 11:39 AM

    Here we go! Let’s hope it pans out. We are due and it is time! Bring it!

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  19. Too warm. I would focus on the ECMWF as being more accurate.

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  20. Euro just came on board with snow this weekend...

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  21. Looks like we have something to watch. Too early to really call/. New thread Bill?

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  22. Novak put out a map and the metro doesn't seem to be in any bullseye, but..........

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  23. It looks simply too warm for anything significant snow wise in the metro at this point.

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  24. Well guys and girls I think were gonna be missing out on this monster as well. Forecast for goodhue county on sat. High of 37 and high on sunday a high of 41...bye snow

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  25. All models now have snow to the north of MSP. The boring continues...a token 1-2” possibly for some. Like some comments already made, just too warm! Go figure late December and it’s TOO warm!

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  26. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 25, 2019 at 1:12 PM

    Wow! Those are some big totals for places in western Minnesota. I love it when I see potential that a storm has. I will be doing my special Christmas “move it east” dance!! I have a good feeling. Bring it!

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  27. Really turning into an impressive storm. QPF is up there for a large area. 100 mile shift and it gets interesting.

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  28. Hot off the press 00z GFS gives a storm total of 0.0” for MSP. All rain and dry slot!
    Go west for snow!

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  29. Dance faster PWL. With each successive model run it looks more and more like an April rainstorm for the metro for this weekend. Good grief! I sure hope it's not shaping up to be another one of those "winters" around here...

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  30. Looking at discussions and forecasts and models, one word stands out: UNCERTAINTY!
    Don’t latch onto one solution at this time, let me remind you just two days ago only the GFS was even showing a snowstorm and then the other global models followed suite all burying MSP and then all models moved north and west with the heavy snow to the point where no snow depicted for the metro and now more snowfall is depicted on all models for the metro albeit not the heaviest snow(yet!, that’s still north and west).
    Let’s see how this goes today, I believe today is the critical day in determining the fine details of the track of this thing.
    With all this being said I definitely see winter storms watches being hoisted sometime this afternoon that will come close to the core metro if not including the metro(but that could be for a lot of mixed precipitation and not all pure snow).
    Translation: PWL keep dancing and faster!

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  31. 12z models are populating, first up the NAM, and it doesn’t look good for metro snowlovers.
    Total MSP snow: 0.0”

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    1. Next up the 12z GFS
      Total MSP snow: 1.1”
      More bad news for metro snowlovers.

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  32. According to the 12z GFS, the storm is going to central Iowa, then make a hard left and go due north up the middle of Minnesota to the central part of the state, and then go west to the MN/SD border, and then finally race southeast to Ohio. However, the jet stream appears to run through Iowa and then northeast towards Michigan. The storm track seems very strange to me. Can anyone explain why the storm would make such an abrupt turn up into Minnesota? Thanks!

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    1. Good catch. I don't believe guidance has a good handle on things yet. Storm coming ashore now. Will have much better data sampling over the next 12 hours. Expect a significant change in the FRI 12z runs.

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  33. This is December...in Minnesota, right? I'm new to the Upper Midwest. Isn't it supposed to be snowing...not raining in December (late December at that) in the Twin Cities? Is it normal/typical to have big rainstorms in the TC in late December? I hope not!! Just checking.

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    1. Welcome to MN...... our climate has definitely changed from my youth. I feel like we get a lot more rain and ice in the metro area than when I was a kid. From meteorologist Paul Douglas's weather blog: "According to Dr. Mark Seeley, we experience 4 times more midwinter ice than we did in 2000." Seeley is a state climatologist. While we have blips of 'real MN winters of the past,' they definitely do not remind me of past winters.

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    2. I should say, 'they definitely do not remind OVERALL of past winters.'

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    3. Well I will say last year down here in the southeastern part (Rochester) of the state we received the most snowfall ever in both the winter season and the calendar year (2019).

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    4. Very true, DysonGuy. It's just seems so far in the rearview mirror after the patterns this 'fall'........ but you are correct!

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  34. If it's not going to snow in the metro, hopefully the weather gods will have mercy and dry slot us instead of monsooning us with an April rainstorm.

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    1. I'll take the rain to wash the sand away.

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  35. 12Z Euro and Canadian is in
    Snow totals on both are 3-5” for metro, 1” on the front side then all rain then a few inches on the back side.
    Not great for snowlovers but at least these models deliver more snow for the metro.

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  36. Jonathan Yuhas(KSTP Noon News):
    “MSP will be mostly all rain for this one, possibly a few inches on the backside Monday”

    So many disappointed snow lovers!!

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  37. Winter Storm Watches are up! As close to the metro as Stearns county. Which if your a snow enthusiast is like it’s a thousand miles away.
    Not looking good for the snow freaks, PWL you should resort to something else your dancing more often then not doesn’t help the metro folks. But if you look at it the other way all this rain coming will wash away any snow left plus the dirty piles and sand piles.
    You barely pulled out the White Christmas, now say goodbye to what’s left.

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  38. If you're a snow fan in the metro, you do not want to look at the latest models. Get ready for heavy rain followed by the dry slot, which will round out the event. A pathetic way (weatherwise) to end December. How much do you want to bet that it gets cold AFTER the storm leaves and the ground is early November brown? We're supposed to be adding to our snowpack, not eradicating it! smh

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  39. What happened to that 20 inches of snow for the metro the models were predicting just a handful of days ago? I'm glad I did not believe it. Low and behold the next day it was down to 10 inches, and now it's a big fat goose egg "0"! Gotta love these so called winters in southern MN. Yes, sometimes we have real winters here, but it's nothing you can count on every year. Will January - March be a continuation of disappointment for metro snow fans?! Sorry, I know I'm venting. It's just that it is very frustrating living in the southern half of the state if you love winter.

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  40. That one and a quarter inches of predicted rain in the metro would have been a sweet pile of snow!

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  41. Woulda coulda shoulda! Sweet piles of snow in the metro only happens in April lately, where you can only enjoy it for like 3 days before it’s all gone.

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    1. Very true. I'm just fondly remembering the 50's and 60's and even 70's where I think we had more snow than rain this time of year, isn't that true? Maybe I'm hallucinating.

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  42. PWL take up sewing or singing. Mother Nature doesn’t care for your dancing!

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    1. Be kind. I enjoy the dancing and wish for snow. Some of us still want snow, snow, snow, even if Mother Nature and Old Man Winter aren't cooperating in the metro.

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  43. Not sure if many of you caught it, but Novak is expecting “significant changes” with tomorrow’s 12z model runs in response to a question much earlier in the day. Significant changes from rain(current forecast) to more snow?? We will find out tomorrow I guess

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    1. I know the 12z hasn't come out yet, but it appears this morning that the only thing that has changed in the forecast for the metro is more certainty that it will be even warmer Saturday and Sunday with no chance of snow, except maybe for a short period Saturday morning. Of course, once the cold air arrives in the TC the moisture will be all but gone. Translation: It will warm up so we only get rain...it will then get cold and dry. Nothing but bare ground to ring in the new year. Very disappointing!

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    2. You should read what Novak wrote down below, totally contradicts what you wrote and believe what will happen. Interesting couple of days coming, 3 day storms are rare!

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  44. Yeah agreed.
    The writing is on the wall with this one I’m not entirely sure what kind of “significant changes” that Novak is waiting for but this storm at least for metro is little snow to start, a lot of rain then a little snow to end. Sucks frankly but what you going to do, Mother Nature will do what she wants!
    I don’t believe we need a new thread at all, the comments will become less and less as the rain gets closer.

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  45. Minnesota in general but especially Southern and Eastern Minnesota (including the Twin Cities) is a prime example that we have probably lost our battle against climate change.
    When Mark Seeley predicts snow-free winters by 2050 I believe him.
    This is just the beginning. It will get much worse than this.

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  46. Might want to pump the breaks there anonymous. Down here in Rochester last winter we received the most snowfall in both the winter season and whole year (2019) ever recorded.

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  47. With all the crying and doomsday talk here You would think the world is coming to and end.

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  48. We just like snow and want it to snow

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  49. This storm is massive, slow moving & impressive. I really, REALLY like the snow set-up for Monday across eastern MN & WI. The change is to up snow potential totals for Monday into early Tuesday for many of us.

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  50. The storm should have two lives. One this weekend, then it regroups & forms another impressive system on Monday. This doesn't happen often but certainly could in this scenario. Kind of reminds me of the 1991 Halloween storm except that the storm will likely not sit & spin in one place.

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    1. What do you like about the set up for Monday? What track is storm #2 predicted to take? Are you thinking advisory level snows (4+ inches) for the metro? Thank you for your input!

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  51. As far as the Climate Change discussion is concerned.... What is alarming to me is the amount of moisture that is being released in our atmosphere. We are breaking precipitation records all over the place & this latest storm is just another great example of moisture availability.

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  52. Ah yes must he climate change so what's our solution give the govt more money they'll take care of it.... the world has been cycling for thousands of years...

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    1. Is a weather blog really the right place for Science illiteracy?

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    2. Well in the 70s in was global cooling then it was global warming then it was just climate change. Al gore told us the ice caps would be gone in 2014. Said flordia was gonna be under water. Any time people get rich or the govt get rich from taxing or writing a book to push a narrative I have a hard time believing it. But hey sheep will be sheep and do what their told and follow when their told....clowns

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    3. You have just confirmed your a) laziness at trying to understand the topic you're commenting about, b) inability to understand it, c) intent to spread misinformation, or d) all of the above.

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    4. If you don't know by now that there was no scientific consensus on "global cooling" (it was really just some magazine articles with not much Science to back it up), then you've decided that your don't care about the facts when people introduce them to you. You've also shown that you'd rather believe in conspiracy theories than reality.

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    5. I love this bit!

      A know-it-all who doesn't really know it all gets to the point in a debate when he's got nothing left for a retort and so he goes right to the triggered/snowflake/libtard trope!

      Lol!

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    6. No just sick of everything being blamed on climate change. Were in a drought one year its climate change. We get to much precipitation the next it's because of climate....like you cant have it both ways. It's an average...

      As Greta said HOW DARE YOU!!

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    7. It's so easy to see who doesn't have any clue on what climate change really is. Ben, please stop watching state tv and getting your scientific information from Facebook groups, 4Chan, or Q sources.

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  53. No don’t give the government more money they’ll just waste it on some BS space force instead of focusing on our climate.

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  54. I am just wondering whether winter is going to set in this year for southern MN? I see that after a brief cool down next week, temperatures are predicted to be back in the mid 30's in the TC by next weekend.

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    1. Yeah, and it is 'weird' because NOAA and their seasonal outlooks keep pushing out maps with 'colder than average' temps around here through April. Here is the link; when does the other shoe drop???https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

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  55. 12z models(except NAM)shows what Novak is talking about:
    EURO: 7”
    Canadian: 5”
    GFS: 4”
    NAM: 0”
    This is late Sunday into Monday, anything before that is rain and too warm.

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  56. Which model has been better at predicting this winter so far?

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    1. Up until now the EURO was always leading the way and the GFS was a dumpster fire. However, the GFS was the first to sniff out this storm!

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  57. Before the pure rain arrives tomorrow afternoon tomorrow morning looks very icy and messy with snow/sleet/freezing rain accumulating in the metro.
    Good thing I seen Hennipen county already out today pre-treating the roads.

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  58. @bigdaddy, NWS has followed suite and put out a winter weather advisory tomorrow morning in the metro for just that——icy morning!

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  59. I just read this afternoon's NWS forecast discussion. The NWS is not bullish on snow for Monday, other than for some snow showers. I hope Novak is right and the metro gets a few inches of snow after the tropical April rainstorm that is about to descend upon us at the end of December!!

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