Monday, December 30, 2019

A Snow to end 2019

The rain and ice are done. How much snow will fall before the decade ends?

43 comments:

  1. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 30, 2019 at 1:28 PM

    It is beautiful outside! Love it. No one can tell me that Minnesota snowstorms aren’t impressive to watch and beautiful to view.

    Now looking to get 2-4 more out of this wraparound and then hoping the Jets phase again to bring us a nice storm for this weekend. Bring it!

    P.S. My dancing works!! :)

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    1. :+) Yes it does, and yes it's beautiful. The trees looked so lovely early this morning with the wet snow decorating them. Enjoy your snow, PWL. Keep dancing.

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  2. I was skeptical of this wrap around snow which they always seem to predict but rarely happens.

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  3. Happy New Year everyone! Unfortunately the weather is looking pretty boring and relatively warm for the metro the next 1-2 weeks.

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    1. Yay! That sounds like a GREAT start to the new decade to me! (Obviously you don't have to drive in rush hour traffic.) Happy New Year! MM ;-)

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    2. And your assumption is incorrect! I drive in rush hour every day. I still love winter!

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  4. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 1, 2020 at 5:34 PM

    I love it when the NWS branches out and makes some comments about the weather beyond the seven day forecast.

    In case you didn’t see it yet:

    Looking out past this forecast period, GEFS/EPS mean h5 height
    anomalies do show us trending to a potentially loaded pattern, with
    a big ridge developing into the northern Pac, deep trough over
    western North America, and ridging up into eastern North America.
    So enjoy the first 10 days of quiet and mild January weather, since
    early indications are that we will be taking a turn for the cold and
    snowy come mid January.

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    1. This the most incredible comment you've ever written. The thought of it getting cold in mid January. Jut unreal! Really never happened before.

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    2. Yours is.
      What PWL posted was quoted directly from the NWS discussion.
      Inform yourself before smearing people, because you make yourself look like a fool with your stupid comments.

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    3. As long as he isn't peeing himself then agreed, no smearing.

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  5. Geezs climate summary for 2019 we were 1.2 degrees below normal....CLIMATE CHANGE

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  6. It looks like this snorefest of a weather pattern is going to continue for quite some time. At least it's staying just cold enough to keep most of the snow around, and next week it's supposed to get a little colder so we can hopefully start making some solid consistent ice on the lakes.

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    1. I hear you! I think the weather word of the month for this January will end up being Wimpy, Wimpy, Wimpy! We've been stuck in this pattern (especially the warm temps) for too long. If this keeps up, we won't have much of a winter around southern MN at all this year.

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  7. Are we going to get winter this year in southern MN?

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    1. This IS winter in southern MN. You may want to get used to it.
      This is the new normal.

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    2. So we are going to get a record snowfall this winter season like last?

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    3. And if we ever needed one, yet another example of those incapable of distinguishing climate from weather.
      And yet it is not that difficult.

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    4. Well: "2016 was the wettest year on record for the Twin Cities area in Minnesota. 40.32 inches of precipitation fell, eclipsing the previous record of 40.15 inches back in 1911. Data goes back to 1871." (weather.gov); Here is some interesting info from the Climatology Office: "Rising average temperatures: Annual average
      temperatures warmed by 3.2°F from 1951-2012, faster than
      the national and global rates. Average low temperatures have
      warmed much faster than high temperatures.
      Longer freeze-free season: The length of the freeze-free
      season (growing season), increased 16 days from 1951-2012.
      More precipitation: Total precipitation increased 20.7% (5.5
      inches), from 1951 through 2012. Fall and spring increases
      over that time exceed 25% (1.9 and 1.5 inches, respectively).
      More heavy precipitation: The number of very heavy
      precipitation events has increased by 58.3% (comparing the
      1951-1980 total to the 1981-2010 total)."

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    5. Here is the link to a PDF that I used for the copy/paste above. It is chock full of interesting climate info about the Twin Cities climate history:https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/twin_cities/observed_changes.html

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  8. Another bout of freezing drizzle. I do not remember so many instances of this 'in my past.' This is the 'new normal'???? Please let it snow, instead.

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  9. I think it's funny when people say I dont remember this when I was little...how much do we actually remember from being a kid. When we got 6 inches of snow when I was 3 ft tall it was a ton of snow...I think people forget perspective.

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    1. You can laugh, but I have lived 67 years on this earth, mostly in MN in the metro area, and with the data I posted above from NOAA re: our changing climate, there were not as many sleet incidents like this. I would remember them. That one a week and a half ago.... very memorable and brought back only one other ice incident like that when I lived in the metro. I am thankful today's freezing stuff did not materialize here. Snow I can enjoy and move through. Ice, no. It's true weather as a child can appear distorted, but I am referring to winter even during my adult / teen years. Again: the data shows changes in warmth, growing season, and precip.

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    2. Mark Seeley the climatologist at the MN Climate Office has mentioned that ice/sleet events have increased 4 times since the 2000.
      Climate change is here guys, whether you like it or not.
      Denying it is like denying gravitation. You are free to think it does not exist but if you jump out of a window you'll soon realize it does.

      The debate should focus on whether it is really man-made (as most experts seem to agree) or not. But denying the fact that it exists is foolish.

      47 degrees at International Falls on Dec 22nd? That's more than 5 standard deviation outside the mean. These things do not happen randomly...

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    3. Thanks for the additional data, John. Much appreciated.

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  10. Novak said today on twitter that the snow drought for MN/WI will end over the next 7 days. I just read this afternoon's NWS forecast discussion for the Twin Cities, in which the NWS stated it is calling for maybe an inch or two of snow between this Sunday and the following weekend. The NWS and Novak definitely do not appear to be on the same page. Novak, what are you seeing that apparently the NWS is not seeing?

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  11. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 10, 2020 at 4:53 PM

    Thanks for asking that, Tim. I just read the discussion and was wondering the same thing. I TRUST NOVAK and would love to hear his thoughts on this coming week. Bring it!

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  12. In regards to the two weeks coming up starting with January 12th thru the 25th. Some professional forecasters have hinted at a VERY COLD arctic outbreak coming our way. While true it will be getting somewhat colder, don't buy into the hype that we may see lows in the minus 20° to minus 30° degree range. The operational runs of the ECMWF and their ensembles strongly hint that the cold air will be bottled up to our NW. Even though the GFS operational has been showing lows of around -25° to -30° for the same time period, their ensemble mean is strongly aligned with the Euro and its ensembles means of keeping the coldest air to our northwest.

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    1. This pattern will place the Upper Mississippi River Valley in the baroclinic zone with cold air to our NW and warmer air to our SE. Some model runs have hinted at significant event somewhere close to home around the 17th thru the 20th. Stay tuned

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  13. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 12, 2020 at 9:17 AM

    We have some very interesting snow events coming this week and this blog is so quiet. And we have some dueling forecasts/thoughts. I would love to hear more thoughts and have some more dialogue. Bring it!!!

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  14. @PWL, not exactly sure of “very interesting snow events” comments these are your typical run of the mill short waves/clippers that are moisture starved and deliver at best your cosmetic 1-3” snowfalls, if that’s what excites you more power to you! End of week system(Saturday) has potential but that can easily be cosmetic as well or a total miss!

    Blog Tip of the Day: Don’t always look at the high number in the ranges and think that’s what will fall in your backyard or be disappointed at meteorologists that they got the forecast wrong. This week is a perfect example of that with the 1-3er’s coming don’t expect 9” in your yard by Friday and bad mouth the meteorologists because you only got 3”. They are ranges for a reason!

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  15. Today’s snow:
    Bust
    Reason:
    Dry air that no one forecasted!
    Why:
    Look at the radar, snow drying up as it moves north!

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    1. TIm, how much do you think we will get in the metro, then? I do see snow out my window right now. What is 'bust'... less than 1.5 inches which is the low end of the estimates per what Mark advises above in his 'Blog Tip of the Day'? Well, I guess it's a 'start' for this week.

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    2. KARE11 predicting 2" metro and mentioning that 'big potential' later this week plus some more prior to that. I do see some 'dry slots' but they are not over the metro itself.

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  16. They are right now, then fills in and then another break in precip. This is not one solid area of precipitation moving thru, there will be the “haves” and the “have nots”.

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  17. Baby snow #2 for the week on the way.

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    1. :+) And then Wednesday is Baby Snow #3 to mirror your terminology, and then on Friday...... chances for a bigger pile?? It's amazing how just an inch of snow can make driving miserable.

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  18. NWS discussion this afternoon mentions the models are showing a decent storm for Friday (6 inches of snow), but not a blockbuster, given the storm won't rapidly intensify until it's over Michigan. A 6 inch snowfall is respectable for sure.

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  19. Novak's FB page .... buried in the comments.... 'major winter storm' for some folks Friday/Saturday..... can't wait to see the predictions for snow totals.

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  20. Totally expect a Winter Storm Watch for almost all of Minnesota by Wednesday morning for the Friday/Saturday storm. Easily 6-12" amounts for southern Minnesota(including the metro) due to moderate/heavy snow falling for a long duration 24hr+ event!

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    1. Current 06z GFS advertising 10-14" for the core metro with the heaviest bullseye being the metro. More then likely will change but this will be a healthy pile of snow for many.

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  21. Can we get a new thread going for Friday/Saturday?

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  22. New thread just started for late week snow.

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