Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Storm Chances Picking Up

The forecast is looking increasingly snowy later this week. Is winter about to return in all its glory?

116 comments:

  1. It never snows here because of dry slots and warm air. Really nothing to see here. I mean all this ice lately. Really winter are just changing. Soon we will be Kansas City.

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    1. Yes and the ozone will be gone soon too...then the acid rain is suppose to start soon as well...

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  2. PWL: NOAA is pushing out predictions of 6-14 ranges in the metro. Start DANCING! I can't wait to see what Novak predicts, and I would imagine for a potential like this, there might just be another video. Wooo hooooo.

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  3. I'll be darned - models are dancing right now and plenty of cold air. Would like to see a couple more Euro runs before getting too into this one.

    PWL - prepare the diapers!

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  4. Please for the love of humanity do not have PWL discuss the very disturbing act of peeing his pants or diaper because of a snow storm. Just plain weird.

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  5. We gotta take care of our PWL. I'll start a donation drive for PWL Depends...who's in? I'm going to be out of town this weekend so will be enjoying this storm from afar. Bummer for me.

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  6. Novak pushed out his first map, and MSP is in the big bullseye for: "Alter your travel plans" High Probability of heavy snowfall Fri/Sa. Safe travels SWMpls Girl. You may be missing a doozy of a storm.

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  7. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 14, 2020 at 8:16 PM

    This is amazing! The bullseye is huge and we are smack in the middle. Oh my goodness! My dancing is working. No time to use the bathroom - I need to keep dancing! If that Depends Drive works out, I will be forever grateful. They are needed.

    I hope this storm slows down and it just keeps snowing. Bring it!!

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  8. Frankie is on the storm! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kz46UM8Mx9g&fbclid=IwAR3giEh9O2ARDKeEsqz5GbIetXchzewaEUVws8BycF6Lo-RHfg6XFRTeqOo

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  9. Im a bit baffled with no winter storm watches out for Friday's storm as of yet, we are roughly 48 hours out from this storm impacting us and when reading the NWS discussion this morning they are strongly hinting at 8-12" for eastern Minnesota. You would think a watch would be a slam dunk since the models have been fairly consistent for days now bringing in 6+" on all the models. I guess perhaps maybe at their afternoon update.

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  10. NWS POINT FORECAST AS OF 6:30AM FOR MINNEAPOLIS:

    Friday: 3-5"
    Friday PM: 4-8"
    Saturday AM: 1"
    TOTAL:8-14"

    Nice January storm!!!

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  11. As always...I'll believe it when I see it...on the ground.

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  12. Today's snow for the metro appears to be a bust. Radar is showing it should be snowing moderately here in Maple Grove, but there is hardly a flake in the air. Too much dry air aloft?

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    1. It is pound town here in Anoka.

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    2. The flakes are starting to appear in St. Louis Park.

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    3. Looks like a snow-nut on my WeatherBug radar with the Metro in the empty center.

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    4. It's a pretty snow globe here in St Louis Park. Some big puffy flakes, and some small ones, floating in all directions. 'CCO's Lynch said 'less than an inch' earlier today, but time will tell.

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  13. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 15, 2020 at 11:10 AM

    We are on the very back side of the current snow event. But we are on the front end of the monster coming. Bring it!

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  14. Winter Storm Watch 'finally' posted!

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  15. Well them storm numbers got cut down from earlier runs

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  16. Yup they did and if you read the NWS discussion page you will know why, they are introducing freezing rain/drizzle into the fold due to a dry slot on Friday night, red flags are already popping up.
    Bill will there be a Novak video on this storm?

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    1. I believe the warm nose and dry slot is only expected to reach far southern MN.
      "A dry slot/warm nose of air travels across Iowa andperhaps traversing far southern MN. We could see some freezing drizzle/light freezing rain move during this period."

      From the discussion.

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    2. Novak has said on FB that he is doing a 'live' broadcast on FB tonight at 8 p.m. Maybe it will be 'simulcast' in some way or posted here later?

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  17. Sucks I don’t do Facebook!
    Bill any videos with Novak and you coming?
    Got some questions?

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    1. Hopefully he will visit here soon. Maybe list your questions now so he can catch them? He has over 15000 followers on FB and I've been watching his popularity grow over the years, so I don't think he would give up FB.

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  18. Wow I’m now intrigued! Novak has the Twin Cities squarely within the bullseye of the heaviest snows on Friday.....9-12+!
    Bring it x2!

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  19. Replies
    1. I'm wondering the same. The Winter Storm Warning is now posted, but totals don't seem as 'high' as previously stated..... a modest 6-10 in the metro, not that it's a paltry sum. But if Novak has us in the 9-12" bullseye as bigdaddy mentions above, it seems a tiny shift. I'm heading over to FB to see if there are any updates........ hoping some of those with knowledge of the computer runs/ models chime in........

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    2. The NWS is taking the conservative approach so they don't get burned I think. Like always we get to wait and see how things shake out!

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  20. It always seems to be doubt the last 24 hours before the storm. They almost do this every time. Stick with Novak he'll keep it consistent.

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  21. (This is JAW....couldn't get my old sign in to work today)

    I agree with Anon @ 12:31pm. I also see the trend with forecasters "pulling back" on their projected totals when the storm is on the doorstep. I remember the storm-train that we saw last year in Feb-Mar, and the trend seemed to happen then too, although the actuals would often be in the original total range before they pulled them down (and this is not a data-driven comment...purely a gut-memory thing that could actually be wrong!).

    I hope the totals are high tomorrow, and I am just glad the snow will be falling heavily during the daylight hours so I can enjoy the storm as it unfolds!

    Safe travels everyone.....pack those emergency kits in your vehicles if you have to be on the roads.

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  22. NWS issued a 3pm statement and lowered their forecast again, now 5-9 inches for core metro

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  23. 5-9
    6-10
    Same sh*t really don’t you think?
    But definitely see a more conservative outlook on this storm from the NWS then some other local mets who have been showing and talking about nearly a foot of snow near or in the metro for a couple of days now on social media but Novak by far is the highest with the smallest range(what I mean by that is he believes at minimum the metro gets 9” whereas other people are going as low as 5-6”)
    Time will tell!
    I’m hoping for the bigger numbers!

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  24. It has started: storm starts later and less snow in the forecast.

    In my experience, one or both of those things almost always happens. It seems to be both a lot of times.

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  25. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 16, 2020 at 4:55 PM

    Keep bringing the storm talk! Love it! I am an not an expert at all of this, but I love it when people talk about all of it and I can add my two cents in as well. My prediction for MSP? I will take this a step further and give you what I think happens at MSP to the tenth of an inch!! I say the official final snowfall for MSP will be 8.8 inches. Bam. Bring it!

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    1. I'm smiling at your snow happiness. Hope you're right. "Bring it," indeed. Let.It.Snow.

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  26. Novak is doing another update tonight at 8pm on FB. I am hoping (and dancing) for a foot here in the metro! It will be fun to watch it unfold in the daytime tomorrow.

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  27. My guess is we see 4-5 in MSP proper. System feels like it is being way overdone by the models.

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  28. So quiet considering the impending storm. Novak is sticking with the 9-12 for the MSP area. What say all of you?

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  29. Snow shield is starting to blow up in NE at this hour. If it continues I wouldn't be surprised if it starts snowing earlier in MSP than what models are currently thinking.

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  30. 1) 'love it' when I try to check out radar and NOAA's site is 'down' for our radar right now. I wanted to see that shield you mentioned, anonymous. 2) NOAA is saying our snow starts "mainly after 2 p.m.", now? That's a big change in timing but good for people in the metro getting from Point A to B. Enjoy it, everyone.

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  31. NWS just upped their totals back to 7-11 in the metro. Novak RULES.

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  32. Sure looks like this might start earlier than forecast. Point total for my location in uptown is 5-9". But I want more. :-)

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    1. It actually started later than forecast. Not until 2pm in St Paul.

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  33. Will be pretty much right on time, right around the noonish hour, looks to be a good 2 hours away on radar right now

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  34. Hey all, as you can imagine, it is busy in my weather office. I will try to respond to all these awesome comments later today. In the meantime, I will send you this YouTube link that contains my latest video from 8am this morning: https://youtu.be/DL1yud-62os

    Enjoy!

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    1. Great video mee boy! Spot on no network wavering. Looks impressive

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  35. Snow is hitting Eden Prairie now. @494/212

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  36. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 17, 2020 at 1:28 PM

    The radar is beautiful! That in and of itself made me just change by Depends! Love it! Bring it!!

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  37. Left my house in cetral Bloomingto at 1:12pm to just the first few flakes within 13 minutes it was snowing hard. By the time I returned home at 1:55pm visibility was downt o 1/2 mile and roads were slippery and fully covered.

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    1. I know, those slippery roads are just gorgeous!

      Traction is overrated anyway.

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    2. "If you choose not to find joy in the snow, you will have less joy in your life but still the same amount of snow."

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    3. C'mon over and clear several inches of joy from my driveway.

      Then clear several feet of joy from my backyard when it melts and threatens to flood my house.

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    4. Because Novak's forecasts are as good as it gets.

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  38. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 17, 2020 at 3:58 PM

    It seems to me that there is “stuff” mixed in with the snow that is limiting the intensity of the snow. It is snowing moderately and I am hopeful that truly heavy snow starts son before we lose the main energy. Here we go! Bring it!!

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  39. Is it too early to say Novak busted!! Back edge of the heaviest snow already working into the metro now, only lighter stuff from here on out. Low end of 9” will not be met
    Too much dry air in the beginning was the culprit, regardless what the models say leading up to an event dry air needs to be factored in. Novak won’t be alone though many of this mornings model runs were spitting out double digit totals in and near the Twin Cities.
    The Mets who lowballed this one will be the winners!
    On to the next storm which looks to come along next Thursday/Friday but buyer beware on that one as we will have warmed up considerably by then so rain and mixed precipitation will definitely be introduced into the forecast.
    I guess our really good knock ‘em shock’em double digit snowstorms occur in April nowadays!

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  40. I believe the storm is going to backfill on itself after this lull. Totals might be down a bit but still a hefty snowfall when Allis said and done. And it isn't done yet.

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  41. I really didn't comment much on this storm during the days preceding the start if it. I really wasn't very impressed with the set up the models were showing, albeit the snowfall totals were impressive. I never really saw a merging of the jet streaks at the 250 to 300mb levels. But even though the jet steam is important, I tend to look at the H5,H7,and H850 mb charts. At those levels I saw a very weakly negative tilted trough that didn't close off the low pressure system outside of a very short time at H85. With almost a neutral trough and no closed low I thought the models were overly optimistic with the amount of QPF.

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  42. Unless I wake up to a bunch more snow, it's egg on MY face for going high and believing the hype. Long live dry slots, I guess. The wind is wicked, though, so it doesn't take much snow to still make it a mess. Have a good/safe evening everyone, and thanks to all the discussion re: the storm dynamics, etc.

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  43. NWS believes after a few hours of lull or freezing drizzle, more snow will wrap around the back end. That isn’t typically what happens, but we shall see!

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  44. Bust!!!!
    Shout it from the rooftops....

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  45. A very calm, peaceful "storm" overall. Sent my daughter off to a winter camp today at 2:45pm, from MSP to Brainerd, right when the worst was supposed to hit. She made it just fine w/o any complications. Easy drive. I literally got an email just now from the leader who took the group up: "We made it! Roads were great!" Glad I didn't listen to the forecasters calling for no travel. Took a nice peaceful walk with my wife tonight. Only 3 inches or so in south minny. Snow stopped. Roads not bad at all. Maybe a little more cosmetic snow tonight, but not much.

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  46. Don't worry, boys and girls. At least another three months of winter awaits.

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  47. WHAT A BUST ! ! ! Almost as bad as the Baltimore Ravens. :)

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  48. Hey all, so far the storm has panned out as planned. Many areas of southern MN, including the MSP metro have received a solid 3"-6" of snow. Now, what we don't know is exactly how is the next 12 hours going to evolve.

    Currently, the main disturbance is still west of us over eastern SD. The question is, where will this track & what will happen on the north side of the track? Meteorology 101 would argue that snow will redevelop on the north side of this track. If this indeed does occur, another 2"-4"+ is not out of the question bringing totals in the 6"-10" range across the region.

    I guess only time will tell.

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  49. On the other hand, there is no doubt that this DRY slot was certainly impressive & concerning.

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  50. Bummer of a storm for the metro. I am checking cocorahs.org for the snow totals... paltry. So egg on MY face as I boasted to friends that the mets who called for 8-12" in the metro know their stuff, and it would happen. Just shows that changing climate (drizzle?) and dry slots (totally unpredictable?) muck everything up. "Nobody" can predict what will happen. Call me #disappointed.

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  51. Bust, Bust, Bust, Bust, Novak all wet.

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  52. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 18, 2020 at 8:37 AM

    Love the snow. Love Novak! Not all wet in any sense of the word. That dude nails it almost every time. And analyzes storms with detail that others just don’t. The result? Almost always on the money. Thanks, Novak.

    Now, let’s bring the next one. Bring it!!!

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  53. Could have EASILY been an advisory in MSP. After all the hype all week. Hilarious. And this is why I prefer to listen to conservative, level-headed forecasters.

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  54. I won't call it a bust, but I will say it underachieved. It appears nobody really saw the dry slot coming as far north as it did. We still got a few inches of snow...finally! It hasn't really snowed around the metro for at least the past month. I am disappointed that despite predictions from many different weather sources the current pattern of getting cold for a few days and then followed by several days in the 30's is going to continue. I have even heard some sources touting 40 degrees later next week in the metro. On the positive side, as a winter fan, I feel fortunate it has remained at least cold enough to keep a consistent snow cover (even if at times there are only 2-3 inches on the ground) that started in the metro at Thanksgiving. All and all this winter has the feeling of being blase, so/so at best. We will see what February brings. In the meantime, everyone be safe and enjoy the new powder. I'm not very optimistic we will receive anymore anytime soon.

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    1. I agree with everything you said, except I am calling it a bust! Nobody predicted the dry slot. Although the GEM model only called for 4 inches total for the TC. The remaining models and mets were calling for at least 6 inches. This ho-hum winter will continue limping along. KARE 11 just said mix of rain/snow next Thursday and Friday. That is frustrating in the dead of winter in Minnesota! Of course we will probably get a bunch of snow and cold weather in April when it is not wanted!

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  55. So much for the TC and western WI being in the bullseye all week. That is why I always say I will believe it when I see it, regardless of the official forecast.

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  56. As a snow hater I LOVE being in the bullseye before a storm. Usually good things follow.

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  57. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 18, 2020 at 10:46 AM

    To @anonymous 8:40 am: please define conservative, level-headed forecasters. It is a very interesting term and I would love to hear how you define that.

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  58. Anonymous from January 16, 2020 at 5:31 PM here. Glad to see I was able to nail this one down! Blind squirrel gets a nut once in a while!

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  59. Our high temp for today will be 26, recorded at 7.53am, the time of day which records the coldest temp 99% of the time.

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  60. I truly find it funny how some people consider 4"-6"+ across so. MN a bust. Granted, we didn't get the 8"-12" that I & others expected, but 4"-6" is more than enough to cause huge problems. Now, if we would've only received a dusting or coating of snow, THAT is a big time bust. 1"-3" would've been considered a bust. 6.0"? Give me a break.

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  61. Plus, many, MANY forecaster were predicting this significant snowmaker a good 3 to 5 days ahead of time. I call this pretty damn good & I'm sure the public appreciated it except for some of you trolls that dot this message board.

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  62. With all due respect Mr Novak, it is a bust because the totals predicted were simply wrong.
    4-6 gives a median value of 5. 8-12 a median value of 10.
    So we are talking half the amount that actually occurred.
    That is a bust to me.
    Causing huge problems vs not causing huge problem is a completely different perspective and it is not what we are talking about here.
    Otherwise forecasters could simply do away with predicting totals and simply say: no problems, minor problems, huge problems etc.
    But if you decide to predict totals it would be much humbler that sometimes you simply accept they may be wrong.
    After all only those who make forecasts can get them wrong.

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    1. But that is what's so frustrating about all of this. If I had it my way, I would simply say "light, moderate or heavy" impact on Travel & leave it at that. However, most of the public WANT a deeper prediction. For some reason, we've attached an impact level to snow totals. I think it is safe to say that nearly all forecaster knew this was going to be a HIGH impact event. Would this have been a bust if that were the simple prediction? If no, then from here on in, when you hear me say 6"+ of snow, just consider it a HIGH impact event. Or, better yet, just look at my Travel Impact maps rather than my snow prediction maps. That way, I don't have to hear you mention bust when we get nearly 6" of snow. Deal?

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    2. Deal! :+) It was definitely high impact, and has continued to be two days after the event. The roads SUCK. I still saw people in ditches Monday.

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  63. This is interesting info, as there is still a LOT of ice on the metro roads. I had to crawl from Point A to B yesterday, and I am sure it will remain so today and tomorrow until temps can rise high enough for chemicals to melt the mess from this storm. KSTP reports: "Over a nearly 36-hour span from 5 a.m. Friday to 4:30 p.m. Saturday, the State Patrol has reported 559 crashes and 61 injury crashes, 532 vehicle spinouts and 21 jackknifed semis." The new norm with freezing rain mixed into snow, in my humble opinion.

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  64. Starting Wednesday, and through the foreseeable future, high temperatures well into the 30's every day with many of those days including at least some rain. What a wimpy, wimpy, wimpy winter this is shaping up to be.

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    1. I can't say I'm sad to see 30s during what is typically the coldest part of Winter. I love snow but can do without the bitter cold.

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  65. I agree with you Joel, I don’t care for arctic bitter cold either. It can still snow in the 30’s, problem is it looks too warm for all snow, but you never know if you have just the right setup we can still get some healthy snows even in a above average temperature profile.

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  66. I find it interesting that people complain about a wimpy winter when actually as of today snowfall totals for the Twin Cities are above average.
    Human nature is just by definition never happy. Something always to complain about.

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  67. I didn't get the impression at all that the poster was saying the winter is wimpy due to lack of snow. The response that the TC is above average for snowfall totals this winter tells me only half the story. We could have a winter with above average snow and above average temps. One or two big snowstorms sandwiched in between otherwise very balmy weather can skew the averages and create that scenario. I'm sure everyone defines winter in their own terms. I define winter by snowfall and temperatures. I don't know how the poster defines it, but to me it sounds like the poster was saying this winter is wimpy due to several more days of high temperatures in the 30's, to which I happen to agree. Ever since mid-December we have been in this progressive pattern that has resulted in us experiencing several days with temps in the 30's. There has been no blocking pattern and thus no lock down cold regime. It's winter in Minnesota, January at that, so personally I prefer temps in the teens and 20's. There is plenty of time for 30's come March. Note that I am not advocating for brutal arctic cold either. It usually doesn't snow much, if at all, when it's that cold anyway. First and foremost I am a snow fan!! Start dancing PWL!

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  68. HOLY MOLY CAN YOU SAY JANUARY THAW!! We are looking at the potential of 10-14 days above freezing in January in the Twin Cities I wonder if that will be breaking records.

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    1. Found this on weathernationtv.com: "The rare January thaw saw high temperatures climb above freezing in the Twin Cities for 8 consecutive days. This was the longest stretch seen in Minneapolis since 1992, when the thaw reached 9 days. 18 is the record from 1944.Jan 27, 2017" And here is a link to the whole page/article: https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/rare-january-warmth-minnesota/

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  69. I just saw this afternoon's updated NWS forecast. Are you kidding me?! They are practically forecasting Spring to start in a couple of days! This is ridiculous! I sure hope they are wrong! Starting Wednesday it is going to be more like Kansas City weather around here for the foreseeable future. A January thaw? It's more like a winter thaw! What happened to those forecasts, including the NWS, of a below average temp winter for us in the northern tier states? Whoever on here said this is looking like a wimpy winter when it's all said and done is right! This SUCKS!!! We're going to mowing the lawn and planting flowers by the first of March this year.

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    1. Agreed. The NOAA seasonal outlook had us warm before winter started and then changed to blue/below normal temps through spring during late fall. If 'this' is below normal..... ???? It's weird.

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    2. Grab those diapers and bring it!

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  70. According to Accuweather, high temperatures for Minneapolis will be above freezing every day from January 22 through February 3. Some of those days might hit 40 degrees! Meanwhile, folks in Alaska are crying uncle because it's been so brutally cold there since early December.

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  71. Bill,
    Maybe a new thread for the upcoming blast furnace.
    PWL must be on vacation.

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  72. I do understand winter lovers (I consider myself on of them) are not happy with upcoming weather.
    Unfortunately this is the new normal. This IS what climate change means: mid 30s when you are supposed to have mid 20s, mid 40s, when you are supposed to have mid 30s, and so on.
    And as someone else posted a few days ago, it is indeed going to get worst.

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    1. Unfortunately, I don't think that will happen here in good ol' icebox Minnesota. It'll be wetter. I doubt it will be much warmer. We've been in a cold hole for about 18 months. The global climate maps clearly show it.

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  73. We don't know that. Time will tell. Let's keep things in perspective. For example, a slight buckle in the jet stream would have us shivering in our boots just like Alaska has been for the past month and a half. On the flip side, I believe it was just last season when Alaska was very warm and we had brutal cold here in Minnesota.

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  74. Now, come to find out, our planet has been cooling since 1998. The world temperature is 1.08 degrees cooler than it was in the late '90s. This may come as a shock to many, but there is really nothing to this "global warming" hoax. Turns out, this has all been an attempt to keep the money coming to those who are collecting funds for various "anti-climate change," entities who think they are helping to save our planet from an invented "disaster."

    Our government spends $22 billion a year (that figures out to $41,856 a MINUTE) on global climate change interests. Now, that is quite a piece of change being pocketed by all kinds of businesses, so we cannot tell the truth. That would be a real set-back for those who are profiting so handsomely from the fear-mongering, would it not?

    There is a former NASA engineer named John L. Casey, who worked for years with our White House Space Program. Highly regarded by many until he retired and began to look into the whole climate change scenario. He delved into government archives and found that the whole truth about global climate change has not been told. He wrote a dossier, 164 pages long, exposing the fact that humans have NO impact on global climate change — NONE!

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    1. I take solace in the fact that there are fewer people like you every minute.

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    2. After reading your first two sentences- I've tuned out the rest of your words. Where is your proof? https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

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    3. Well you just keep being a good little commie and doing what the govt tells you...

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    4. The govt?
      Take a look at how nature is responding.
      Fish migrating north to find cooler waters, pattern of trees blossoming, how early or late squirrels go dormant, the number of ice-rain per winters that have increased 4-folds.
      May be it is your fixation on th egovt that makes you sound so stupid.

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    5. Ben needs some professional help.

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  75. On another topic: this above freezing streak could be a record-breaker. It feels like March out there.

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    1. As a winter fan, I HATE it! Basically cloudy and 35 degrees every day for at least the next week. I don't like January in March and I don't like March in January!!

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  76. The temperature forecast for the remainder of January for the TC is interesting. I just checked today's 18z runs of the GFS and CMC models, and they both reflect everyday for the rest of January with highs in the 20's in the metro, except for one or two days, which they have in the lower 30's. Does anyone have access to the Euro temperature forecast for the remainder of the month? I do not.

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    1. The Euro is officially not free access, however the Norwegian Met Institute uses the Euro to inform their forecast so although this is not 100% euro (output) as Paul Huttner claims when he shows, it is very very close to its raw output.\

      https://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Minnesota/Minneapolis/long.html

      Of course everything is shown in the metric system (so celsius, mm, etc.)

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  77. I don't know what you people are complaining about.

    IT IS SNOWING RIGHT NOW.

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    1. I've had to shovel three times since late Tuesday!

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  78. A half inch 3 days ago, a half inch 2 days ago, 1 inch yesterday, another half inch today and possibly tomorrow. Basically 4 inches in a week. almost the same as the busted storm last weekend..
    Not too cold, not too warm to melt the snowpack (thanks clouds), I really like this pattern.

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