Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Boring Weather to Become More Active?

Weather is weather is weather ... and as someone once said, "There's a 100% chance of weather" .... but it sounds like things may change to a more active pattern. We watch. We wait.

197 comments:

  1. Okay. Novak says next week will be interesting; the 'time and date' is showing 17+ inches next Wed/Th in the metro. What will 'really fall'?? Time will tell. PWL needs to start dancing. And the temps look decent enough for snow and not rain/drizzle/etc that diminishes the snow totals and makes it messier. Let the discussion and predictions begin!

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  2. What on earth is "time and date"?, new weather model?

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    1. It's a website that has all sorts of info around the world, including weather forecasts. I enjoy looking at it and seeing whether it pans out correctly or not, including when I am traveling out of the metro area. It has sun/moon info, time calculators, etc. I stumbled upon it years ago. Here is a link to the MSP forecast. It is not always accurate, but when people start chattering about potential storms on the horizon, I like to look at it.
      https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/minneapolis/ext

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    2. And for ex: last night Belinda Jensen mentioned 'plowable snow' Sunday in her forecast. NOAA is saying just a 60% chance of snow with no inches mentioned. So I think, 'Well, 60%, it may not snow at all." Then I see time and date pushing out about 3". Maybe zip will fall. But it kind of aligns with what she was saying because plowable is not just a dusting. Anyway, it's all in the 'fun' of forecasting and my fascination with weather. It's just a 'heads up/ be attentive/ see if Novak has any chatter going on his FB site'..... In the meantime, have a sunny Wednesday.

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    3. And my last thoughts/copy and paste for today: Paul Douglas says of the coming weeks quite the opposite of what we who want some big snowfalls are wishing for: He writes in the local paper today: "The sloppiest, slushiest storms of winter will detour to our south. The coldest, headline-grabbing polar fronts should stay to our north. We'll be somewhere in between, with temperatures close to average (mostly 20s) and occasional dribs and drabs of snow. Weather won't lead local newscasts or crowd out the front page of the newspaper. Meteorologists will spend more time napping than tracking. Snow lovers will shake their fists at an uncooperative sky, while commuters sigh a silent prayer of thanks." So he sees nothing big for the next couple of weeks.

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  3. Time and date weather products are provided by Custom Weather which proven to be pretty accurate; muchmore than (in)-Accuweather and even than the GFS (which may not mean something as its long-range performance is to be laughed at).
    Belinda Jensen mentioning 'plowable snow' may be worth noticing considering that she is usually ultra conservative with snowfall.
    In the end we know how this will end: storm will detour either north or south leaving Metro snow-lovers disappointed as it happens more often than not.

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    1. Thanks so much for your info re: time and date. I appreciate it. I hope you are wrong re: the ending. :+) We shall see. Thanks again.

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  4. Snow total forecasts are starting to creep up for Sat-Sun (2-6”) and mid-week next week (2-6”). At least we have weather to talk about. I don’t think anyone is doing a dance and wearing adult diapers for record cloud cover!

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  5. NWS already slipping Sunday’s system south of metro, greatest snowfall will be south of the core. Another cosmetic coating in the offering for metro core. So pretty much the boring weather continues......

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    1. Then why does NWS have 3-7 inches spread across the metro as of this morning's forecast?

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  6. I dont think so...not when the euro just lined up with the gfs...stop trolling...

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  7. For those of you who also frequent FB, Novak just posted within the past hour that he is going live at 8 p.m. tonight to discuss Sunday's snow potential. Open invite.

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    1. KMSP going with 4-7” for the Metro Sunday with 7”+ to the south. That’s dancing territory right there! Looking forward to a couple more model runs and Novak’s video tonight.

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  8. While Saturday and Sunday's system looks promising from the south metro to I-90. The system for the middle of next week looks to get cut off from the flow and gets washed out over the far SW USA. Time will tell, but it was always a strong possibility that it wouldn't phase with the northern stream. Those models that did show it barely pick it up from the SW.

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  9. Don’t call me a troll, I can have an opinion just like you all! Look at all the NWS graphics the last two days, the northern extent of the snow keeps coming further and further south. The most impactful meaningful snows will be south of the metro, south of the core. The core will average out with an cosmetic snowfall of 2” or less. Case in point on how not to get all wand up on snow...24 hours ago the forecast for tonight into Friday was 1-3” now it’s 30% of snow, another case in point next Wednesday storm went poof when NWS said winter is not done with us and will get active. This is a boring winter and just a side note as of this week MSP just went below average for seasonal snowfall.

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  10. I agree with James. I have been watching the forecasts and models closely, as I do every winter, and I cannot dispute anything James said. I unfortunately am starting to feel February will be a replay of December and January...occasional cold couple of days (perhaps February will average a little colder than December or January, which were 3.5 and 5 degrees above average, respectively) and maybe a little snow here or there, but nothing to get too excited about. I am speaking about the Twin Cities specifically. Let's face it winter fans, despite forecasts to the contrary, this is a ho-hum winter at best. Be that as it may, let's all try to be respectful of one another, appreciate each other's opinions and enjoy the weather, which is why we are all here in the first place.

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  11. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 6, 2020 at 9:56 PM

    Bring it!!!

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  12. Do not worry James and Tim.
    I have been called a troll several times on this blog for simply stating the obvious fact that it always basically snows always more everywhere else than in the core metro.
    I have been reminded that the last 2 winters the airport officially recorded above average snowfall, but when I pointed out that still all locales south, north, and east of the metro received more snow (and so relatively speaking the metro 'misses' out) again, I was a troll.
    And do not dare to criticize Mr Novak, otherwise what they call you will make troll seem a compliment.
    They do not take different opinions very well in this blog, unofrtunately.
    But I agree with you both. Winters in the metro are most often than not, a fraud.

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    1. When you say 'always' nothing is 'ever' 'always' and saying winter is a 'fraud'... if you are saying historically compared to the 50s and 60s well then of course it has become a 'fraud' because climate in our lifetime is changing 'always'.... so it's okay what you say, but your adverbs of 'always' are what bite, and yes, Novak is not 'always' 100% correct. None of us are. When we had the Halloween Blizzard, that erased the 'always' never snows in the core metro. This blog is to learn, and I never saw it as a place to complain about how good enough winter is or is not. It is a place for winter lovers to learn and hope for some great snow and/or cold. There is a difference between opinions about and love for weather and just being negative, angry, critical of others, etcetera. Winter is not a 'fraud.' It is winter, in whatever form it takes. And not everyone calls anonymous people 'trolls'....... if we 'just' get a 'cosmetic coating' as one anonymous person wrote for Sunday, so be it. But let us who like snow wish for more, and state it in the positive v 'just'...... Have a good Friday, cosmetic dusting and all. It's pretty out there.

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  13. "In the Twin Cities, the snowfall total of 15.8 inches was the largest to occur so late in the season, broke the storm-total accumulation record for April, and made April of 2018 the snowiest April on record." It is the use of 'always' above that should be modified to 'usually' or 'often'... then people would probably calm down: "...stating the obvious fact that it always basically snows always more everywhere else than in the core metro." Sorry. It's the former teacher in me.

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  14. You still miss the point: when the Twin Cities got 15.8 inches, all around it got above 17.
    And if you study snowfall amounts and snow coverage at any point during the last 50-60 winters (NOAA recently made a video of it) you clearly detect a pattern where snowfall is and has always been less in the core metro area.
    Just facts.

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    1. You want more snow in the metro maybe get rid of some blacktop and cement and some of the buildings...there's a reason why it's a heat island...and I dont get why we use official temp from anywhere near there as our indicator...

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  15. Sat/Sunday event, I bet if you are North of Lakeville you maybe very disappointed.

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  16. Winter storm watches hoisted for southern minnesota.

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    1. Just as Novak predicted in his 'live' discussion on FB last night. He showed heaviest bands in that area and may go live again tomorrow in the Rochester area. I haven't check his page today for a broadcast time tomorrow. Thanks for the update.

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  17. In general if you are North of Lakeville and south of a St Cloud to More to Hinkley line you are usually disappointed, as northern stream storms miss you to the north and southern stream ones miss you to the south (like it will happen this Sunday).
    I propose to call it the corridor of disappointment for Twin Cities snow lovers.

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  18. The boring continues....
    Dusting last night, perhaps 1-2” on Sunday and to think that others like Novak and NWS said active pattern returns.
    Enjoy the snow southern MN!

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  19. All of you whiners seem to have forgotten what transpired a year ago this month.

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    1. It was very cool! To copy/paste: "In the Minneapolis-St. Paul area of Minnesota, the official final total for the month was 39.0 inches. This places February 2019 as the snowiest February and fourth snowiest month of all time in the weather record books. published online: Mar 2, 2019"

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    2. It was glorious! I'm glad I can look back on it with joy, because I wasn't feeling it while it happened (depression and the deaths of friends suck).

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  20. You self classified 'non-whiners' still miss the point:
    it does not matter that you get 40 inches, if everyone else gets 50!
    it still means it always snows more everywhere else except in the Twin Cities.
    That is the problem. The relative comparison to close-by places which make the Twin Cities seem like an unlucky spot for snow.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. Okay. Rochester got 39.7 inches last February; so they beat us by .7 inches, not TEN. And St. Cloud got 27.6 last February; so they 'beat us' by a negative number ,meaning they did not, correct? If we had 39 and they had 27.6 that does not mean 'it ALWAYS' snows more everywhere else except in the Twin Cities." Duluth got 36.4 inches in Feb 2019. The best part of this discussion is sending me off to look for facts.

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  21. Exactly, facts!
    A single year in meteorology does not mean anything, a month then even less.
    Take a look at this (and this is just the last 10 years), I also was able to analyze the past 50 years and differences are even more glaring.

    https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall_v2/

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    1. It's gonna take some time to scroll through years back to the mid 2000s and then figure out what it's showing me. Maybe single years don't count; what I am reacting to is the word ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS. That's all. Have a good weekend watching it 'snow.' And thanks for the link.

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  22. Good stuff everyone. I love the discussions.

    Hey, don't discount significant snows over much of the MSP metro just yet. Jet streak sets-up over Iowa & this would favor the heavy snow to surge north into the MSP metro on Sunday as a dry slot is forced into much of Iowa. Hang in there.

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  23. Here we go! Novak chimed in and now I am doing my “jet streak over Iowa” dance!!! Yes!! C’mon heavy snow surging into MSP! Dancing! Bring it!!

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  24. Best guess is that when the warning comes out it will extend one more row of counties to the north than what the current watch area shows. There is some indications that it should include the core of the metro as well. 6 if the Sref 26 members show warning criteria snow for MSP as of the 21z run.

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    1. Bingo, randyinchamplin. The Twin Cities now has a WSWatch posted. Thanks for the heads up. "Bring it."

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    2. Just to clear things up, when the watch area was upgraded to warning it did not expand. But yes a Winter Storm Watch has been hoisted further north to now include the core metro, which can go to an advisory for lesser snows OR be upgraded to a warning with the rest of the warning area for 6+" of snow. The 12z suite of high resolution models will be very very key to what will happen in and around Minneapolis. But this is a good sign if your a snowlover in the metro.

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    3. Thanks for the additional info/clarification. It's a pretty sunrise: red sky in the morning........maybe will lead to a warning, ha ha.

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    4. I see what you did there, love it!

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  25. Something has been eating at me the last few days, I thought this storm looked familiar. Looking at the Cips winter weather analog page from 02/08/2020 for 48hrs out, the number 1 analog is the system approaching us on 01/31/2016. All said and done this is what happened.

    http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=MV&fhr=F048&rundt=2020020800&dt=2016013118&HH=-18&map=COSN24

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  26. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 8, 2020 at 7:52 AM

    All hail Novak!! Northern shift has occurred and 12Z runs are starting to confirm it. HRRR has metro approaching 10-12 inches. Dancing working! May need depends. Oh my! Bring it!!

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  27. This isn't slam-dunk just yet AND I believe some of these 10"+ totals across portions of the MSP metro are a bit optimistic. However, the guidance trends of nudging the main snow band to the north makes sense. There should be a strong 300mb jet streak that will be increasing in intensity across IA. Meanwhile, a strong mid-level 500mb jet streak will be located right over the MN/IA border. This would promote a DRY slot near or just south of the MN/IA border. Of course, immediately north of this dry slot should lie a 100 mile wide band of significant snow.

    It will be fun to watch radar/satellite light up over the next 12 to 18 hours.

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  28. I will be shocked if Minneapolis isn’t upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning at the afternoon NWS update. Many 12z models coming in with 6+” , in fact some high resolution ones near 10”.

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  29. You preach it, bigdaddy!!! And bring it!!

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  30. still worried that the European guidances have this main band about 50 miles further south compared to the American guidances. Something tells me we need to split the difference = sharp N/S gradient right across the metro.

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    1. Surprise, surprise...what else is new?

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    2. If I remember correctly the Euro had a bit of a hard time with the 2016, early Feb storm as well.

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    3. If I had energy, I bet it's all stored on the old blogs available to us on the upper right side of this site when on a computer. It might be 'fun' to go back to look at the early Feb blog posts from 2016, actually.

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  31. Downgraded to winter weather advisory ('for sure') with a 4-8" spread across the metro. Some metro folks will be happy.

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    1. A winter weather watch means that conditions may be possible to issue some kind of a winter weather alert. It's not called a winter warning watch for a reason. A winter watch moving to a winter weather advisory is actually an upgrade, not a down grade, as confidence in a snow event has moved to the imminent category. It's just that the snow total will remain just slightly below the warning criteria.

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  32. We have a WWA for the Twin Cities. Isn't that a downgrade?

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  33. Strib has a fascinating article about "Does MN really have the worst winters in the country?" and it has charts w/average snowfall/temps for Rochester/MSP/Duluth/St Cloud and comparisons across the nation with click charts to show the numbers.
    Link: http://www.startribune.com/does-minnesota-really-have-the-worst-winters-in-the-united-states/567086501/
    And the WWA is not so much a 'downgrade' if I am reading big daddy's 6:19 a.m. comment correctly.

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  34. Models juked several of yous, especially bigdaddy and PWL, this morning with their north shift. We’re now right back to square one where the core gets a “miss” of cosmetic snows(2” or so), but man look at the lucky ones.
    Mankato to Rochester could be nearly a foot!

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    1. Just think to be a troll on this page and have multiple identities just to act like people agree with you...and to constantly not have any info to back up what you say...

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    2. He is right in this case. All models including high resolution have pretty much shifted back to what the forecast was all along in the first place. Highway 14 looks to be the area that will be hardest hit

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    3. I’m sorry this supposed troll u speak of knows how to read soundings, look at models and observe observations upstream. It’s easy to find, do you need some direction Ben, because I can easily direct you to the information you seek, you seem lost.

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    4. Oh look another guy that just happen to have found this forum just magically to back you up hahahaa

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    5. Actually i have followed this forum for awhile and know a few of you on here. Randy can attest to that. How you been Randy! Been too long

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    6. James, you are right about Mankato/Rochester (look at Owatonna!!); but it is coming own pretty good around my neck of the woods, so I think MSP will have more than a 'cosmetic" 2".

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    1. More times then not your dancing hasn’t help much this winter. Try a different hobby! Spice things up maybe it will change our fortunes.

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  36. Ben your seriously not well man. We’re talking weather and your taking this to a whole different direction. Please stick to weather or find another forum to pick fights and spew vitriol

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  37. HRRR 04Z run has it moving north a bit. Shows MSP at 8 inches! Bring it!!!

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  38. Dry slot looks like it’s trying to form over SW MN. Will be interesting to see if it nudges the heaviest bands north.

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    1. The slot must have done 'something' because we moved from advisory in the metro to warning.... at least for now. :+)

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  39. Radar is lighting up, but you can certainly see the heavy band developing and rotating westvto east not really moving north. Lighter stuff heading for the core, forecast looks good for heavy snow south of Minneapolis with lighter accumulations firvthe core on north. I’ll say 3” for MSP and closer to 8-10” Mankato to Rochester. Good night all!

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    1. If we get just 3" metro, Sam, you're a snow prediction star. NWS has turned us back to warned area. Maybe north metro will get 2-3, but waking up and looking again at 'stuff' do you still go with 3" for MSP? I'm glad I'm just sitting on the sidelines watching, learning, and not predicting. I just want to know if you will tweak your prediction for the metro area. Thanks!

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  40. I'm going with 1-3 inches for the north metro. 3-7 for the core and 5-8+ of fluffy snow for the south metro.

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  41. So I wake up to read all your comments, which go 'every which way' and I see NOAA now has us back to a Winter Storm WARNING in the metro, and that NWS is predicting 5-9 for the metro. The radar shows a big band moving right at us. I am SO CONFUSED! This shows again that I won't know a thing til it's over. I enjoyed reading the night's commentary.

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  42. The 'downpour' of snow has commenced in the metro. When I got up less than an hour ago, I saw just a light dusting. I thought, yeah, 'nothing is happening.' Now everything is really getting covered/walks and roadways are 'disappearing' under the white fluff, and the storm is really getting going. WSW ends at noon metro. Let's see what we get.

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  43. Last tidbit from me: on Paul Douglas's blog "Record Snowfall: 5.0" set in 1905" for MSP, so maybe we can break it?

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  44. 1,1 inch taped in Hopkins so far.

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  45. 2.1 taped Eden prairie at 212 / prairie center dr. At this time

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    1. Thanks for the taped measurements. It seems to be piling up here in St Louis Park, too. You will have a busy day/evening.

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  46. Just woke up and it’s winter wonderland all over here in Golden Valley and snowing heavily and the radar looks promising with the moderate/heavy zone over us. And would you look at that we were upgraded to a warning just like I said we would yesterday morning but the NWS played it pretty conservative yesterday afternoon and I see increased everything over night.
    I suspect we won’t be hearing much from James today. Everyone enjoy what winter has to offer us and the humming of snowblowers today

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  47. 2.75 inch taped in Minnetonka at 7 and 101. At this time.
    494 through Minnetonka and Eden prairie has not been touched by plows. Single Lane in the center. Cars speeds varying from 25 miles an hour to 35 miles an hour

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  48. The forcing with this storm, at all atmospheric levels was truly impressive. Rochester experienced 2.0"+/per hour snow rates between 5am - 7am where 4.5" of snow fell within a 2 hour period!

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  49. This is awesome! Really solid blanket of snow and came down at really nice clips. Some predicted 1-3. Oops.

    Bring it!!

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  50. 4.1 taped Minnetonka at 7 and 101.
    Starting to taper off on the west side of lake Minnetonka. Looks like maybe another eighth of an inch to come if even that much.

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  51. 6.25 in central Bloomington and it's still coming down at a pretty good clip!

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  53. Edited: This is a cool, colorful link from NOAA for snow totals from many places during and after this storm. Link:
    https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=mpx

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  54. Nice link WeatherGeek. If you look at that map and then compare to Novak’s predicted map, it is almost spot on. Impressed!!

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  55. 6” Golden Valley!
    Warning verified!
    Nice refresh of the landscape.

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  56. Picture perfect winter's day! So glad the heavier snow moved north so those of us in the metro could enjoy the fun too! I wish all winter had been like this. Here's hoping we end on a high note (if you're a winter fan)! Enjoy and be safe everyone! Btw, a solid fresh 5 inches here in Plymouth!

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  57. Yes, this was great. Looking at the cocorahs network, there are some impressive metro totals. And you're welcome PWL, for the noaa link.

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  58. It never snows in the "core metro" the planet is melting, way to my concrete. I remember the 70's when it really snowed.

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    1. Yup. I think on a previous blog I had posted some info about how winters have changed/more ice events/ etc. What I like about yesterday's snow is that at least it was just snow and not freezing rain. Now we have today's freezing fog to deal with. Have a good Monday!

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  59. Interesting tidbits from today's Strib: 'we are 4 inches past the normal snowfall total of about 36 inches for this time of year; last year this time we had 28.2 inches..." and we all know that the metro finished with over 60, so.... .... .... ....

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  60. Any interesting snow systems on the horizon?

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  61. Yup....
    EURO 120hr 00z
    GFS 210hr 00z
    There’s hope let’s see if they hit.

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  62. Hope is gone with latest runs showing nothing worth talking about.

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  63. What you talking about there’s plenty of hope, you see all those 40’s popping up all over the place later next week, and not just one 40, several of them.
    MELT!!

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    1. I love your moniker! Well, even if it warms up and we get an 'early spring,' which I find fascinating because NOAA seasonal outlooks still call for below normal temps here, maybe we can still squeeze out some snow. This is the time of year when snow is great because it won't stick around for long.... right?

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  64. Hey, Plymouth Weather Lover, dig this from Novak's site posted yesterday: "Monday looks really interesting across MN/WI. Eerily similar set-up to last Sunday's snow system. Time will tell." The last three words, yes, time will tell, but there is ALWAYS hope! A President's Holiday Snow Hope.

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  65. Paul Douglas is calling an early spring this year. On his blog today. Rats for snow/winter lovers.

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  66. It seems that every year Paul Douglas calls for an early spring. He appears to be very anti-winter. Computer models are calling for below average temperatures for March. We will see who is right.

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  67. Great, just what we need. "Interesting" weather on a workday. Fudge that.

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  68. Who has insight to the models for tonight/tomorrow? NWS says it appears to be moving a bit further north?

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  69. Most models have a trace-2” at best for the metro. No big deal.

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  70. Yup 12z models show much ado about nothing:
    NAM .5
    Canadian.5
    GFS 0

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    1. No surprise here. It's been a mostly disappointing winter, if you like winter. We've had winters that were more lame for sure, but still this one has for the most part been a disappointment. Oh well, there's always next season I guess!

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    2. Exactly. As usual, it snows everywhere else except in the Metro

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  71. Something’s brewing 10 days from now and I am monitoring it. Could be huge if jet stream buckles like several main models are showing. Bring it!!

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    1. GFS Yes. ECMWF No. Guessing it has something to do with phasing or lack-there-of.

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    2. The GFS does keep wanting to put an interesting system somewhere in the upper midwest for mid-week next week.

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    3. Still several days away, but models appear to be favoring southern MN (south of the metro) again for any heavy snow.

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  72. Looking out my window I have a 300 foot visibility in heavy snow.
    Looks like the NWS blew it again.I am in Zimmerman that was predicted as late as this morning to only get 1/2 inch.Looks like the whole system blew north about 100 miles. something fishy with the forecast today. Snow about to Hennepin county now moving slow.

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  73. Blowing up big time...just got an alert on my phone for winter weather advisory for up to 6” for Hennipen county.OMG..wow!

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    1. Was watching the radar earlier and was wondering why was only less then an 1” forecasted that looks like a few inches on radar coming up from the south, well here we go, I always say when snow is near anything is possible

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  74. Wow, just WOW!

    Dynamics with this system were always favorable. Been that way for nearly 5 days now. Just goes to show you how much relying on QPF can burn you.

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  75. I wanted to thank you for this great read!! I definitely enjoying every little bit of it I have you bookmarked to check out new stuff you post. fishing weather

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  76. I think this is an informative post and it is very useful and knowledgeable. therefore, I would like to thank you for the efforts you have made in writing this article. weathernewz.com/

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  77. Opening Day is just 34 days away . . .

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  78. I think winter is 'over'.... yeah, it may snow, rain more ice, and be a tad chilly, but it just 'feels' like spring is around the corner this year. For me, this was a pretty benign winter except for the few ice rains, a couple of 'pileups' of snow in the metro, and tiny below-zero spells... but yeah, overall, pretty benign. Prove me wrong, Mother Nature, with March tournament time. Thanks for the blog as always, Bill. See you all on here next year.

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  79. Yeah absolutely: another disastrous winter for the Twin Cities.
    I think very few people would guess that Thanksgiving week ended up being the biggest snowstorm of the season for the metro.
    As we say where I am from (loosely translated): from the cooking pan to the grill...
    If you are snow, the next few days are going to be a bloodbath for you :)

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  80. Settle down, people. It is what it is. Using terms like "disastrous" makes no sense to me. What does that even mean? Our snowfall (so far) is pretty average and we have a few months to go before our snow season is over. Our temps were not that far off of average. And we are not done yet. C'mon now.

    And WeatherGeek: I am trusting you to be the eyes and ears of the next possible storm. The positive one who is always hopeful and looking for the next signs of snow or something interesting. And then you go on to say, "See you all on here next year." C'mon now.

    We can do better. Minnesota weather always surprises us. We don't know what is in store and that is what makes it fun to be a part of the joy that comes with no knowing for sure.

    More snow will hit the Twin Cities and even some large events might still happen. Bring it!

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  81. I don't agree.
    If 'more snow will hit the Twin Cities' means seeing frozen water vapor falling from the sky in the form of tiny ice crystals lumped together (technical definition of what we call snow) once again before July, sure. But significant 'measurable' snow i don't think so.
    The pattern this year is just not there, and there are no signs of it changing anytime soon.
    Split flow regime for the upper midwest with phasing occurring well south and east of here.

    ReplyDelete
  82. Ok. Let’s see who is right. First, how do you define “significant”? We should agree on that first. I define it as three inches or more.

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  83. Just to add my two cents....I believe significant to be warning type snowfall, 6+”. And I fully expect to get at least one if not more of those before we close the book on this winter.

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  84. I can go along with 6 inches or more. I think we will get one more of those and maybe two. Bank it.

    What’s your prediction, anonymous? And define significant.

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    Replies
    1. I'm not saying it won't happen because I did mention March tournament time and how that always figures into storms just happening to show up. I appreciate your comments, PWL.... time will tell. I'll keep my eyes open to potentials and for sure message Bill on FB if I don't see a new thread popping up for the next snow dump. This February just feels different somehow. In the meantime, though......... for those who like melting snow, gentle breezes, sunshine and temps in the 40's, enjoy this weekend. :+)

      Delete
  85. NWS discussion this morning saying things are looking more interesting for next week. Here we go! Bring it!

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  86. I define significant as 6+ inches in 24 hrs, which is NWS criteria for a winter storm warning.
    And are you serious to believe that we will get at least one if not more of these, still this winter?
    Not a chance.
    Actually, just today the world climate service released new data on the Arctic Oscillation measuring at a striking 6.5.
    It may be one of those years (like I think it happened 5-6 years ago) where we may have mid 60s by St Patrick's day.
    Significant snow is done.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And news comes out today that March may be colder than normal- https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2020-02-21-march-2020-temperature-outlook-forecast-the-weather-company

      Nothing is truly known until it happens.

      Delete
    2. Are we still wasting time with the Weather Channel in 2020?
      Let them waste their time with their ridiculous shows, and 'naming' winter storms and leave the serious job of weather forecasting to the real expert like NOAA climate prediction center and so on...

      Delete
    3. OK then. Middle of March may be cooler than normal. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

      Delete
    4. Cool link; look now how above normal it's going to be March 2-9:
      https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

      NOAA flip flops quite often imo; for example, their graphics said a lot of winter would be below average temps, but it did not turn out that way. Next year I should take screen shots of what they say one day and then how they change it the next. One reason I like Novak''s forecasts is that he stays solid once he calls a storm and he sees things fairly far in advance a lot of the time. And, if he sees 'nothing' that some model spits out, he won't tempt us unless he thinks it's a solid prediction.... Thanks again for the link for mid March

      Delete
  87. Ok anonymous. We are on! I say one more 6 inch or more snowfall ‘this winter. You say none. Let’s see. My money is on me. Others want to chime in? (But maybe use an actual name so we can keep the “anonymous” people separate.)

    Bring it. This will be fun.

    ReplyDelete
  88. I am in Camp PWL!
    In fact it may just happen Tuesday/Wednesday....latest 12z NAM and GFS bring heavy snow closer and closer to MSP, at the moment it has a few inches for the MSP area but just yesterday it was ZERO. I would monitor this one closely.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looks like Madison, Milwaukee, Chicago would be next week snowfall participants.

      Delete
  89. Just to clarify... I am not saying it may not snow 6 or more inches this winter. We may well have 12 of those ridiculous 0.5 inches cosmetic snows we had all January.
    What I am talking about is 6+ inch in a single storm.
    Or put it even simpler: NWS will not issue a winter storm warning for the core metro counties again this winter.

    ReplyDelete
  90. if we hit 46 today, it will be the warmest day since 10/26/2019.

    !! BRING IT !!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can't wait for the single digits to return this week! It's still winter! BRING IT!!

      Delete
  91. Sunny days....longer daylight
    Birds are singing

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  92. Just to be clear and respond to this ongoing "bet" with anonymous. I am understanding this the same way--I am not adding up the little wimpy small snow events. I am saying that we will get at least one more 6 inch or more snowfall (as part of one storm) this winter. You are saying we will not. (It doesn't matter if the NWS issues a Warning or not. But they probably would. My bet is simply that we will get one more of these types of storms yet this year.)

    Put it in the bank. And bring it!!

    ReplyDelete
  93. I’m with PWL....metro will get at least one 6” snow this season. Hoping we don’t win because it’s in May!

    ReplyDelete
  94. Well my wife also agrees with you. At least one more 6" this season.
    But I stand by my prediction. We are done with 6+ inchers.
    Maybe, but really maybe a 3-inch clipper embedded in NW flow early March, but I even doubt that.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Please define metro. Is it the seven counties around MSP or the 494/694 loop or something else. If one is betting it would be nice to know the geographical area in play.

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  96. That is a good question.
    I think meteorologists leave it undefined on purpose so that they can always spin it to make it look like their forecast was correct. Ian Leonard and Paul Huttner are extremely skilled at this technique.
    But in the end I always go with the only official undisputed measurement which the one taken at MSP by the NWS.
    Sometimes it gets more, sometimes it gets less, but across the full season it evens out when you compare it with some of the other 'semi-official' reports from the Cocorahs network.

    ReplyDelete
  97. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Keep your insults to yourself. Nobody forces you to be on this site.
      And most importantly, how convenient is it to cover yourself behind anonymity, when insulting people?
      You actually represent the worst that the internet has to offer.
      If we are internet's children you are our grandparent.

      Bill please remove this idiot's post.
      I don't think insults should be tolerated.

      Delete
    2. I agree with John. I will message Bill in case he's not monitoring right now as we are in a 'snow lull'....... Gosh. #bully

      Delete
  98. I agree with anonymous in that the official reading by the NWS is the amount of snow that will result in who is right in the "bet" that we have going.

    So, Greg, if you want to be in on the bet, then throw your thoughts on there now that you know what the metro is defined as for purposes of this "bet". Bring it!

    ReplyDelete
  99. OK.I see that anon 12:44 has the same standpoint I do. Wife says yes, he says no. I agree with anon. No warning snows for MSP but maybe several advisory levels depending on how the cold air stacks up. Last year we had daily highs up to 20 degrees below normal at times. What should have been showers turned out to be snow.
    As for our friend. Yes I do have an ass. It is not fat due to the fact that I have to shovel an 700 foot long driveway many times a season. Also peppering that experience with shoveling up to two feet of snow off the roof as I did with last years glorious season. And yes, I for one, get out in the snow all season and find it "embracing".
    How about you, friend.

    PWL, you have my bet. Now let what is left of winter bring it!

    ReplyDelete
  100. My bet...wont snow more than an inch and everything gone by and of 2nd week march

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  101. I like it Unknown! Way to bring it in terms of risky bets. You are going to be way wrong but we will see I guess. Everything gone means what? All piles gone? No way.

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  102. The piles you speak of would be melting, no?

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  103. I agree with Greg, Unknown and the original anonymous who prompted this 'bet'.
    Winter is over. Looking even at the long range, it warms again next week and it does not look like it will ever get cold enough to sustain accumulating snow.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Oh the joy when this happens (and others who have sided with the 6+ prediction). Not just of winning a silly little bet, but of seeing the snow coming down and adding up. Bring it!

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  105. As Darth Vader eloquently put it: "I do not share your optimistic appraisal of the situation"
    60s by March 10, and 70s in April.
    Done with accumulating snow for the season.

    ReplyDelete
  106. I would not be surprised to see a warmer and dryer set up begin, if not already Spring and Summer. We've had over two years of wet. Its time for the scales to balance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. From anon @ 7.43am to anon at 11.35am:
      Exactly right!

      Delete
  107. Only one thing left on the bet. Do we allow PWL to dance during an incoming event?

    ReplyDelete
  108. Okay. We who love snow need to move to upstate NY. I have a FB acquaintance who lives in an area where they are getting 18-22 inches of snow through today/tonight. Her photos are fantastic if you like snow..... and there are blizzard warnings on top of it all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Marquette, Michigan is the place to go if you like snow.
      Nice little city, on the lake, pleasant summers and tons of snow in winter.

      Delete
    2. I'll have to check out their snow totals, too, then. :+)

      Delete
  109. Is Dustball still believing that March will be colder than normal?
    Winter is over ladies and gentleman. (Did it even really ever start? Cannot remember a decent snowstorm since Thanksgiving week, which is technically Fall to be precise).
    And I will win the 'bet' with PWL...

    ReplyDelete
  110. Well, today's seasonal outlook has MN at equal chances temps and above normal chances precip, but they change their 'outlook' so often it's not even worth pasting the link because who knows WHAT it will look like when you click on it. I'm with you as I said about a week ago in that it just feels 'different' this year in terms of March. And we got so much freezing drizzle/ice/rain that snow totals were definitely affected overall. This was not a great winter in the metro area for big snow total lovers. I can't wait to see how the online virtual 'bet' plays out. In the meantime, enjoy the melt this weekend.

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  111. Unfortunately I have to side with the "winter's over - it never really began" crowd. I believe the running bet on this site with PWL is whether there will be another snowfall of at least 6 inches in the metro this winter. Heck, I don't think there will be a snowfall of more than an inch, possibly two, the rest of this winter. Nobody loves snow and winter more than me, but the reality is we just need to stick a fork in it, because it's done. This anemic so called "winter" will limp to the finish line soon, just like it has limped along since mid-December. Temperatures in the 50's, possibly the 60's, in the area by mid month are looking quite possible. I could go on and on about my disappointment with this winter, but it would do no good. Signing off on winter in Minnesota at the end of February is pathetic, but it is what it is. Hopefully winter shows up next season. I love this site, Bill! I look forward to "seeing" everybody again later this year. Enjoy the rest of the seasons and pray the summer isn't too hot!

    ReplyDelete
  112. Oh, Tim (and others). It is still February. Have we not looked at most every other winter and seen large snowstorms in March, April and even May? To simply look at the next week's forecast (or even the week after) and claim that there will not be another 6+ inch snowstorm or even say that there may not be a snow of an inch or two is just not going to be right.

    Time will tell. I am doing my "I am going to right" snow dance!

    Bring it!!

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  113. I think what you are missing PWL is that the pattern is completely different.
    And one of the few consistent things about weather science is that patterns, once entrenched, are extremely difficult to dislodge.
    This winter the predominant pattern by far has been split flow and ridging which does not bring big snowstorms to the region.
    So true, you can have extremely snowy March and April like we've seen to some extent last year, and especially the year before, but you also can have snow season ending on Feb 5th and 70 degrees by St Patrick's Day as it happened 5-6 years ago.
    This year's pattern is much more similar to the one that brought us 70 degrees by mid-march.
    So, I actually agree with Tim: forget the 6+ inch: I am starting do doubt that we even get any snowfall at all.

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  114. We officially hit 50 for the first time since 10/26/2019.

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  115. Melting snow is one of my favorite things to watch/experience in weather. What a day!

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  116. I wouldn’t sleep on the Monday/Tuesday timeframe(9th/10th), global models except for the GFS are showing heavy wet snow(around 6”) near Minneapolis...currently in central Minnesota. It’s a week out so it’s something to watch(and dance too)!

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  117. I would.
    Snow is done for the season, whether snow-lovers like it or not or whether snow-haters love it or not.
    Done.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Models looking more interesting in the long term. The pattern change coming on late Sunday into next week will lead to the big storm I have been betting on. It is early March people.

    Bring it!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I know you love snow, as do I. When I check my little 'timeanddate' site that I wrote about on a different blog, sometimes I see a future prediction of 8+ inches and get all excited. Then after a day or two it has disappeared from the next computer run. I don't know.... it just doesn't feel like any big snow events are on the horizon. We have had years where there is 'early spring' and this feels like one of them.... keep dancing, PWL, but don't hold your breath at the same time. We need your continued presence on the blog, snowstorms or not. "Bring it," indeed.

      Delete
    2. Well weather boy, you might want to look at the temps because you are missing some ingredients to your dinner soup. Maybe get back to MSNBC and worry about COVID19 in your basement burrow. Hype maker!

      Delete
    3. This seems a rude response. PWL is not a hype maker. He is just a soul who loves winter and loves snow. Why do you have to be so rude and make assumptions about his life and/or 'tell him what to do.' ????????

      Delete
  119. Seriously guys, is there really someone out there that seriously believes it is going to snow 6+ inch this season in the MSP metro?
    Aside what you'd love to happen, but looking at reality? Seriously anyone?
    I would probably have won 'the bet' with PWL even if the threshold was 3 inches instead of 6.
    Come on...

    ReplyDelete
  120. I reviewed the monthly temperature averages for this meteorological winter (December-February) at both the MSP Airport (official reporting station) and at the Chanhassen NWS(formerly the official reporting station). The temperatures at the airport appear to always be warmer, sometimes significantly warmer, than at Chanhassen. I am surmising this is due to the heat island effect. Here are the December - February average monthly temperatures at the Airport, followed in parenthesis by the departure from average: 23.2 (+3.5), 20.6 (+5), 21.1 (+.3). Chanhassen NWS: 20.4 (+2.3), 17.9 (+3.6), 17.5 (-1.6). The coldest temperature reported each month was at least three degrees colder at Chanhassen than at the Airport. The difference in the two locations even resulted in February 2020 officially being reported as having above average temperatures (+.3), while if Chanhassen was still the official reporting station February 2020 would have gone down in the books as being more than 1.5 degrees BELOW average. I have not conducted an exhaustive review into this, but I cannot help to wonder how changing the reporting station location has affected the official average monthly temperature reports for the Twin Cities over the years. Does anyone know when the Airport became the official reporting station? I just find all of this rather fascinating...and potentially misleading.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I looked into that once. The station used to be downtown, then shifted to the airport I think in the 1940s. I'll see if I can find that info.

      Delete
    2. OK I found it - moved to the airport in 1938. Weather.gov's site is not working right now (what a surprise), so here's a google cache of it:

      https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:332p-01LynwJ:https://www.weather.gov/media/ilx/History/minnesota_wb.pdf+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

      Delete
  121. This is the link if anyone wants to review the current and historical weather data for the Airport and Chanhassen NWS. https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/twin_cities/index.html

    ReplyDelete
  122. Just like no one can know for sure if there will be a snowstorm within the meteorological snow season, no one can know for sure that there won’t be. But I am putting my money on weather patterns that are wildly unpredictable in March and into April. And Novak agrees with me based on recent comments on Facebook. I think we will see the other shoe drop in the next 10 days to two weeks. I am not predicting snow today or through this weekend! As a result, I’m not missing any ingredients. I know it can’t snow when it’s this warm. I am referring to the future and I am banking on statistics as a pertains to the snow season we are still in and how weather typically works in Minnesota in March. Time will tell and this will be fun to watch.

    Also, you mean there isn’t coronavirus lurking in my basement? That’s awesome to know because now I can go down there.

    Snowstorm....Bring it!

    ReplyDelete
  123. At last a good post bringing up good points instead of the many ridiculous 'oh it will snow" "oh it does not snow" hysteria, as though Mother Nature really cares about people's 'dancing' or what not.

    The official reporting station for the Twin Cities were as follows:
    Downtown St Paul from 1884 to 1891.
    Downtown Minneapolis from 1891 to 1938.
    MSP airport from 1938 to 2000.
    Chanhassen NWS from 2000 to 2004.
    and back to airport since 2004.


    It is beyond doubt that having the official reporting station at the airport has downplayed official temperatures (and to some extent snowfall averages based on my personal analysis of the data) and I cannot find other reasons than the heat island factor. If variablities were simply due to the randomness of weather it would show in the data, and it does not, so it clearly a systematic cause (again most likely the urban heat island effect).

    I have been an advocate for some years to use the already existing grid of automated reporting stations around the metro area (NW, N, NE, W, the Downtowns, E, SW, S, and SE and simply average the findings.
    I am sure the NWS must have good reasons not to do it but it clearly is misleading.

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  124. Lots of articles on the topic of why weather stations are at airports. Google it and you'll find your answers. Part of it is FAA and airplane safety. It's also partly because large flat areas are good for weather sensors.

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    Replies
    1. I agree with you (btw I hold a Commercial Pilot License so I am very aware of FAA requrements).
      I was not questioning why you should have a reporting station at the airport, of course you need one to issue METARs etc.
      What I have been puzzled about is why the NWS does not consider adding other reporting stations that already exist and are automated, and average the results to give a more accurate picture of the actual weather in the TC metro for official record keeping.

      Delete
  125. As Paul Douglas says on his weather blog today: "A positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation responsible for unusually mild weather is forecast to linger well into April. Our mild bias may hang on well into spring. ...

    No storms, no floods, no polar vortexes. What a winter.""

    ReplyDelete
  126. Yes, a wimpy winter it has been. What a difference a year makes. This time last year the Twin Cities officially had about 20 inches of snow on the ground; had not seen a temperature above freezing since the first of February, and had several days with highs in the single digits, including in March, over the past month. I was reading the EPO, as opposed to the AO, might actually be much more of a factor in determining whether MN has a real winter or a wimpy one. It appears a -EPO is possibly a very significant driver for a real winter. This winter we have had a +EPO.

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  127. ...mosquitos are out

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pray tell, where? I want to hear their sweet whine.

      Delete
    2. Bill,Time for a new thread? Maybe call it "the bet".

      Delete
  128. It's time for some mildness. Last winter was awful. The flooding situation was a nightmare. It's still bad, but easing somewhat this year. With any luck, I may not have to worry about my basement.

    Bring stress-free weather! BRING IT!!

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  129. I shot a FB message to Bill re: the blog having a new thread and the suggested title.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete