Saturday, March 7, 2020

Six inches of snow left this winter? What do ya bet?

The clock is ticking on winter. Do you think we have six inches of snow left to come this year?

46 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. It won't happen THIS weekend, but do you all stand by your previous bets?

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  3. Sorry, as much as I love snow and winter I just don't see another significant snowfall (3+ inches) for the Twin Cities this season. I think we will see snowflakes again sometime before the end of April, but I truly don't see any multi-inch snowfalls. The pattern (temperatures and storm track) is stuck, as it has been since mid-December, and everything I am reading suggests it will remain that way. I keep track of the weather in central Alaska due to my friends there. They have had a brutally cold winter. They were hopeful a few days ago when they heard the pattern might change and they would hit the 30's ABOVE ZERO (whoo hoo! talk about a heat wave! lol) in a couple of weeks. Their forecast has since been switched to temperatures reaching no higher than the 20's through the first week of April and the pattern not changing until perhaps mid-April. When it's cold in Alaska, it's warm in MN...and vice versa. That combined with the storm track avoiding us like the plague equals no snowstorms for the Twin Cities. Of course I could be wrong, but I just don't see a last snowy hurrah for us this season. The MJO, EPO, AO, Polar Vortex, etc. have not cooperated with us this winter.

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  4. Anonymous (Original Bet with PWL)March 7, 2020 at 10:12 AM

    My bet with PWL is safe. It will be an easy win on the 6+.

    As I agree with Tim I feel so confident that I am willing to issue a new 'bet' to lower the threshold to 3+ inches, to give PWL, bigdaddy and others a better chance to win.

    Meteorological patterns once entrenched do not come unstuck easily. Like we saw last year for snow. This year is the opposite.
    Winter is done.

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  5. I'm headed to Tucson tomorrow, where it will be only four degrees warmer than here.

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  6. I will stay with the bet of no 6+ inches snow at MSP. When does the bet end? End of April? Mid May?

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  7. Based on the initial bet, let’s just stay with that. I stated that it was during the possible snow season yet this winter/spring. I think that is through May or so.

    I am clearly on the side of at least one more 6 or more inch snowfall (in one storm) yet this snow season. There isn’t really a question in my mind.

    To the original anonymous better, you should not lower the bar to the 3 inches as you have done. There is still time to take that back.

    Bring it!

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  8. Looking at the models and all available data, snow and snowstorms are definitely on the table later next week and the week after!

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    1. Yes. 'timeanddate' is showing 8.8 inches of snow on St Paddy's day, but every week they fool me with that type of 'big snow' prediction, and nothing comes of it. It happened last week, and then for this week, so I'm going to see if this holds out and really happens.

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  9. You all talking about that rain maker.

    I still say less than an inch and everything gone by end of second week.

    Of course storms are impossible to forecast ...right?

    Yeha-Noha everyone

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  10. Going to be an early summer....

    Another day of potential record high daily temperatures across the central Great Plains. Areas from eastern Colorado to the Upper Mississippi River Valley will experience another pleasantly warm afternoon with daytime temperatures forecast to be 15F to more than 25F above normal.

    From nws

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  11. Mr. Pattern ShiftMarch 8, 2020 at 4:22 PM

    THE GREAT WINTER COMEBACK OF 2020 IS ON THE HORIZON!!!

    -From mid March to mid April temperatures will run average below average and the greater MSP/St. Paul area will measure nearly 30” of snow(give or take a few inches)

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    1. Wut? 30 inches between now and mid April?!?!?!?!?! "Bring it!"

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  12. Well hello there 18z GFS!
    Tell us more about that snowstorm(s) your advertising.

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  13. Per Paul Douglas on his weather blog today: "No accumulating snow the next 1-2 weeks is quite remarkable. When I arrived in 1983, March was the snowiest month of the year. Now it's January. So far MSP has picked up 42.9 inches this winter; 20 inches less than last year. Wow."

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  14. "Wow" is Paul Douglas ridiculous statement.
    He should know that since the average winter season snowfall in the Twin Cities is 46.3 inches having 42.9 is pretty is not "wow" at all.
    Comparing it to last year that was an outlier means nothing.
    I could equally say 42.9 is 20 inches more than the full winter of 2011-12 (22.3 inches) WOW!
    Sometimes these ridiculous statements really made be wonder whether he is himself writing the blog or some of his underlings.

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    1. Good points. He does have others fill in for him, but when they do, their names appear on the byline, so I do believe these are his words. Let's see what happens in the weeks to come.

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  15. So do any of you gurus with computer models see 6-7 inches spread across M-W this coming week? A St Paddy's Snow Event?

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  16. My bet is looking safer and safer. Patterns change especially in the wild time we call spring in Minnesota. I agree with the locked into patterns comment, but I think the change in seasons doesn’t follow this in the wild swings of these seasons. At least in these brief times.

    Bring it!!

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    1. Exactly. The timeanddate is still pushing out heavy snow next week. I'm waiting for the folks with all the models/etc to weigh in. Bring it, indeed! SNOW!

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  17. And I just took a peek at Novak's FB page and posted a couple of days ago: "Don't let your guard down. Gut feeling is that the 2nd half of March will feature plenty of 'Old Man Winter'."

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  18. NWS forecast through March 18 still looks very non-winter-like. Near 50 degrees again by next Wednesday, the 18th.

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  19. Simply too warm and the storm track no where near us!

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  20. The corona virus has even caused winter to be cancelled.

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    1. Finally we found something good about Cv19.

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  21. Well hello there 12Z EURO, don’t think I don’t see you and your foot of snow for later next week! Very interesting times, there is no sports to watch, the virus has become a 24/7 thing so I guess I’ll just watch these models and see if we still have a snowstorm in the cards this winter.

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    1. Exactly. It's been about three weeks of a model pushing out a big snow event that later magically disappears from later forecasts. Maybe "12Z Euro" is what timeanddate uses because three times I have told the kids, 'A big storm is coming next week,' and then nothing. Rain if anything. :+(

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  22. Every major models is now showing a snowstorm of varying degree for the Thursday/Friday timeframe, all show in excess of 6”.

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  24. Thanks, Sam. My side of the bet looks better and better!

    Bring it!!!

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  25. The NWS definitely is not very optimistic about a snowstorm for the metro this week. Their forecast late this afternoon for the metro this week reflects a system with predominantly cold rain Wednesday and Thursday with possibly a little snow at the end of the system Thursday night. You're running out of time to win that bet PWL. Better luck next season when winter hopefully shows up.

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  26. It appears the NWS has not fully decided whether the system the end of this week will be rain or snow for the metro. Although, their forecast discussion this afternoon clearly reflects they, at least for now, are siding with the warm GFS, which would mean a cold, windy rain for the Twin Cities. Surprise, surprise...not! While I am no fan of Paul Douglas, he does have a saying that has proven many times to be fairly accurate. That phrase is "don't predict rain during a drought". I am changing that slightly to "don't predict snow during a rather snowless winter". Time will tell.

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  27. So far an inch (unexpected!) of a strange white substance has accumulated in Maple Grove this morning. It's still coming down.

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  28. Novak had a map out on FB as of 3:30 p.m. yesterday that has the metro in the 'moderate' 'anticipate problems' for Th/Fri. Lucky Maple Grove anonymous. While some flakes fell in St Louis Park, nothing stuck......... looking forward to the end of the week. Next week looks unsettled, too. And colder than average. Let.It.Snow.

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  29. Maple grove?
    Had a temp of 35 with .07 qpf
    And wound up with an inch of snow
    Wow

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    1. It came down at a pretty good clip for a while. Even my street turned completely white. It was 37.6 degrees when the snow started. The temperature dropped to 33.8 during the heaviest snow. Almost all of it has melted now, though it just started snowing lightly and steadily again.

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  30. The chance of accumulating has all disappeared. Though it looks quite cold for a couple days, back to spring by Monday.

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  31. Anonymous (Original Bet with PWL)March 17, 2020 at 12:08 PM

    Exactly as expected and predicted a few weeks ago.
    Everything under control.

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    1. Good! We have enough as a state and country to worry about than a snow storm. I'm pulling for you Anonymous (Original Bet with PWL)

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    2. Anonymous (Original Bet with PWL)March 17, 2020 at 1:09 PM

      Cannot agree more. Well said.

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  32. A snowstorm is the last thing we need right now. We don't need any person out there who doesn't need to be.

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  33. I win......
    Less than 1" everything gone by 2nd week

    I could do cleanups this weekend if I wanted. Might as well

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  34. To walk on snowish road, you need extra grip on your shoe to avoid any fall. You can add extra spike with your shoe. You can find good quality walking aids to give you support and comfort while walking.

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