Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Winter's Last Gasp?

With winter seemingly on its last legs, the possibility of a late-week snowstorms offered faint hope for snow lovers.

50 comments:

  1. It looks like it is going to be too warm in the metro for the one half to three-quarters plus inch of liquid to turn into a big 6+ inch snow event. Novak has us right in the middle of the 'high/alter your travel plans' precip belt, but he also says there is a 'high bust potential this time of year.' It looks more and more like we must wait for next snow season. Stay safe, everyone.

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  2. 66 first week april
    ..

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  3. I will state the obvious once again. Weather systems (e.g. AO, NAO, EPO, MJO, PNA, etc.) did not cooperate (and continue to not cooperate) to produce a real winter in the Northland this season. Winter never really got started. It has essentially been hibernating since mid-December (except for Alaska!). It's done...over...kaput. Stick a fork in it. Let's move forward and enjoy what hopefully will be a fun, warm (not hot) spring and summer. I look forward to fall and cross my fingers for winter to wake up and show up next season! Stay safe everyone...see you next season!! Thanks so much for this site, Bill!!

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    1. Agreed. If only, if only, if only it were cold tomorrow/tomorrow night, what a wonderful snow storm we could have had based on the precip models. But it's just too warm. I echo Tim's thoughts and yes, thank you, Bill, for this blog site. It's been a blast and looking forward to next season.

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    2. We don't need a wonderful snowstorm causing car crashes, landing people in the hospital at this time. Eff your wonderful snowstorm, seriously.

      Crocodile tears for you.

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    3. Why do you have to be so rude? Why? Snowstorms don't necessarily = car crashes. That's not what I think of when there is snow. And 6 inches isn't a STORM. It's a plowable/shoveling type event. You are very rude.

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  4. Have to agree with 'Anonymous'. We don't need snow storms or any storm right now.

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  5. Novak first put the metro in the 'high impact' then 4-6 inches.
    Ridiculous overhyping insignificant storms continues until the end of the winter season.

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    1. That is not over hype. He mentioned high bust potential, added no totals to the chart, and just posted it so people would pay attention to future forecasts. Are you the same 'anonymous' who used 'eff' for my other post? Have a bright day.

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    2. No I am not. I do not insult people even I have different opinions with them.

      But he did add total to the second chart, having the metro in the 4-6 inches.
      And it does not make any sense to caveat everything you forecast by saying 'high bust potential".
      You should consider that uncertainty when you issue your forecast. Otherwise it looks like he's just saying that to cover his a**.

      I know that on this blog Novak is hailed and 'adored' like a mythical figure who never misses a forecast.

      Actually he does more often than not by overforecasting snow totals by an average of 56% for the metro area at my last verification. The he repackages and spins very well to make it look as if he was always right by carefully manipulating general statements like Southern Minnesota, North Metro, South Metro and dynamically shifting their geographical boundaries as it suits his forecasts.
      And btw, I am not singling it out. Every forecaster does that.
      But as a data driven person, I will point it out. The often maligned NWS is actually much more accurate.


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  6. The bet has yet to be decided. Do not discount the blog so soon. Agreed winter has not been gangbusters this time but the snow total for metro is close to average. Remember the original reason for the blog was Bill's awareness that the forecasts among the local outlets were varied. He wanted to see who was most accurate. Over the years we have drifted away from that premise to hyping every snow event and leaving the summer alone. I guess that is ok but we miss a lot of the fun of total year weather.
    Can I assume that the blog participants will stick around a few more weeks until the statistical chance of a winter storm terminates? Is Bill still in NM?

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    1. I live in New Mexico now but still keep an eye on MN weather. And right you are... the original intent was to track the forecasts of the various outlets... but that was a ton of work! Thanks for being a longtimer on the blog.

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  7. In Minnesota the statistical chance of a winter storms terminates in August and resumes in September!
    Only state in the Union to have registered snowfall in every month of they year save August!

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  8. Anonymous (Original Bet with PWL)March 20, 2020 at 9:18 AM

    Well, very good. Bet is won.
    Thank you very much for participating.
    Mid 60s expected in the next 10-15 days, time to start preparing for severe weather season.
    Let's hope the warmer weather may somehow help slow the epidemic.

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  9. Hold on Original Bet Anonymous! The snow season is not over. You know better than calling this over. That may be your prediction but this is not over. Time will tell time is not telling yet.

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  10. Plymouth Weather Lover July 15, 2020 9:39 PM

    Guys, we could still get snow! It could happen! I'm dancing!!

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  11. PWL, I love snow more then the next person and including you but give it up already. Look at this past non-storm, over a week ago it got our attention with huge numbers as we got closer most models were still advertising a decent snowfall and even the day before and day of were still calling for some snow and we didn’t even get a flake in the metro. Let’s face it this winter was subpar, not horrible just subpar. We were spoiled the last two winters with April blizzards and 70+” seasonal snow totals we were due for a correction the other way, take your losses close the chapter to this winter and hope for an early arrival of snow next fall! Happy gardening everyone!!

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  12. Are you serious PWL?
    Your evidence defying prediction about the 'snow season not being over' reminds me of the administration's claim that Covid-19 would disappear from 15 cases to 0 in a matter of weeks.
    The snow season is OVER. It's been actually over since about the middle of January if you hadn't noticed.
    Time to wake up to reality. The President eventually did it, so I am sure you can as well with respect to snow.

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  13. No snow ever againMarch 22, 2020 at 3:21 PM

    Just a couple of observations:

    1. I got more snow last night (a dusting) than that entire "storm" last week. Interesting! Actually the storm last week was NOT a bust if you followed the NWS -- they were saying under an inch at best. Others were saying more. So for them: BUST.

    2. Still waiting for the big second half of March (or was it February?) that many were forecasting. Though many were saying it was their "guts" that were telling them a big wintry second half of March was coming -- so, not very scientific. Others were basing that off of the last two years having cold springs. It's been quite a snowless stretch, actually. And relatively mild!

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  14. Here is what Novak wrote in Facebook yesterday:

    “I would bet you a million $$$ that someone in MN will get at least 6"+ of snow in the next 7 days.”

    We are still alive for the bet!

    Bring it!!

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    1. But PWL, that will not be in the Twin Cities. Up north, sure, but not down here. I believe the bet is there will be at least one more storm in the metro that drops at least 6 inches of snow. Sadly, there is absolutely no indication whatsoever that that is going to occur in the metro.

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    2. That's the problem with Novak's forecasts: always too general to the extent that they do not mean anything: "someone in MN will get at least 6" in the next 7 days"
      DAH!
      I go out on a limb and predict that someone in MN will get a thunderstorm within the next 60 days!
      Gimme a break.

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  15. Yuge Trump like global warming forecast next week. 60's 70's sunburn weather.

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  16. I'll bet 1 billion Novak's wrong

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  17. Yes, he really busted the last few forecasts big time.

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  18. Haven't chimed in for a while, but I have some thoughts:

    1. Novak stated that he would bet a million dollars that somewhere in the state would get 6+ inches of stands in the next week as of March 22. It is no March 28 and it seems pretty likely that somewhere in the state could get that as this powerful storm switches over to snow overnight tonight. Some models should several inches for the Twin Cities, but that seems questionable. Maybe grassy lawns, but maybe a few inches. So.....he may be right and some on this blog would have seriously doubted (even make fun of) him. (One person even said they would bet a billion that he is wrong. We will know by morning!)

    2. There are several possibilities for snow as we go through the first couple weeks of April. It will get cooler by the end of next week and who knows what that will lead to. Some models have some noticeable snow close to home and/or right over MSP.

    3. Some are getting kind of nasty on this blog. Please stop. No need for that. Just having some fun in the midst of a crazy pandemic. Those are not mutually exclusive words.

    4. Newsflash: The bet is still alive through the snow season. I am still holding to by 6+ one snowstorm event prediction sometime yet this winter (as measured officially for MSP).

    Bring it!

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  19. Pretty nice thunderstorm last night. Good to have a distraction.

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  20. Still snow seasonMarch 29, 2020 at 9:44 AM

    Pretty nice covering of snow this morning. Good to have a distraction.

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  21. The snow season is over for the Twin Cities (6+ inches of accumulation by the bet)
    What PWL does not seem to understand is that models are grossly underestimating the boundary layers temperature and therefore spitting out ridiculous amount of snow when in reality it will just rain with cosmetic flurries at the end.
    And this has happened all winter for some reason (and interesting page to look up is the CLimate Prediction Center verification analysis where they actually compare model performance).
    Things to turn attention to in the next few weeks are the Covid-19 pandemic and severe weather.
    A system like the one we just had in a couple of weeks time would unleash a severe weather outbreak like we hadn't seen in years.
    So prepare for Covid-19 and start preparing for severe weather.
    Snow is done until probably mid December.

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  22. Anonymous (Original Bet with PWL)April 7, 2020 at 8:21 AM

    How long do we have to wait PWL? Until August?
    Bet is officially over and won as far as I am concerned.

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  23. Yes its over....
    Won 2 bets, and tomorrow will be my third.
    66 degrees first week april

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  24. 00z EURO is showing over 6” of snow for the metro by the end of the weekend, just saying to those that are saying “it’s over”. A lot of “cold enough” air for snow will be around for at least the next 10 days or so.

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    1. Anonymous (Original Bet with PWL)April 7, 2020 at 11:48 AM

      Whatever...
      I heard the same story 10 days ago for today, and 20 days ago for 10 days ago, and 30 days ago for 20 days ago.
      This 6 inches apparently are always 10 days away..
      Again, how long shall we wait? Until August?

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  25. Not over till it’s overApril 7, 2020 at 12:02 PM

    You wait till the season is over, which in these parts can go straight thru the end of April. Are you forgetting the past two years of snowstorms in mid-April.
    By the way the 12Z GFS is showing substantially more snow for later in the weekend as well going from SE Minnesota thru Wisconsin, something worth keeping an eye on for sure.

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  26. Spring snow is constituted as only unseen liquid.
    Its over
    Move on

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  27. The bet was for the current snow season - of which we are still in. So the bet is not over. Even though some of you (original anonymous bettor) want it to be over.

    Bring it!

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  28. Frogs are going crazy
    .
    Turning on a\c because it's almost summer

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  29. Anonymous (Original Bet with PWL)April 8, 2020 at 9:11 AM

    The bet is over because it is not going to snow 6+ inches at MSP this snow season. Period. As easy as that.

    Whether I 'want' to be over or not has no effect on what happens or does not happen. Mother Nature cannot care less.
    But Mother Nature also gives us hints: and this year it was clear to everyone (maybe except PWL and a few others)that the snow season was basically over by early February ( snowfall on Feb 9/10 of 5 inches which would still have lost the bet BTW).
    For 6+ inches we need to go back to Thanksgiving week back in November.

    A snow season that ended before even starting.
    IT"S OVER!

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  30. This bickering is too funny............ I'm siding with the 'anonymous original bet w/PWL' that it is over for this season for 6+ inches in the metro. Every year can't be 2018 and 2019. Sometimes we need and get a break from it. In the meantime, stay healthy y'all, and see you next year, unless I earn some 'snow' (egg) on my face.

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  31. Now sure about the six inches but looks like we aren't done down here in Rochester.

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  32. We are totally NOT done....even the metro is coming into play for Sunday/Monday!

    Latest:
    06z NAM: 6-10”
    0z EURO: 3-5”
    0z UKMET: 3-5”
    0z Canadian: 2-4”
    06z GFS: 0”
    GFS is the only outliner, every other model has snow, keep your eyes on this one.
    Surprises are coming!

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  33. Not over till it’s overApril 10, 2020 at 10:34 AM

    12Z NAM is in.....and it’s absolutely crushing with a large area of snow from 10” in Minneapolis to 18” down by Iowa border near Albert Lea.

    Get your snowblowers ready!
    Easter Snowstorm incoming!

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  34. Cant wait to see the radar
    going to be showing the grand metro donut

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  35. Dakota County has a Winter Storm Watch! 4-8 inches possible. Sooooo close...... 'bring it'......... Our record for an Easter snowfall at MSP airport per Kare 11 is 2.5 inches. BRING IT.

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  36. Set up a new threat for tomorrow's possible snow action.

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