Thursday, December 29, 2022

A storm to kick off 2023 - but will it be rain or snow?

NWS says with 99% confidence that a storm will bring significant moisture early next week. However, there will be the classic “rain/snow” line that could spell wildly different results depending on where that axis lands. 

Will everyone north of Iowa see snow? Or will the metro receive liquid precipitation? 

Time to prognosticate!

125 comments:

  1. Excerpt from latest forecast discussion from the NWS

    “Just between the GFS, ECMWF, and
    CMC RDPS the center low varies from passing over northern Minnesota,
    southern Iowa, or southern Minnesota. Why does the track matter so
    much? First the location of the low puts you in the warm sector
    (rain) or cold sector (snow).”

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  2. Well we have 3 camps for the storm early next week for the metro:

    GFS- (warm sector)all rain with storm going to our northwest

    CMC-(battle ground sector) rain to start, changing to a heavy wet snow 6+”

    EURO-(cold sector) but the heavy snow falls in Iowa and SE Minn, sparing the metro with just a light snowfall

    *all models have been consistent the last few days with their depiction what they think will occur, however the CMC trended abit snowier today and the EURO’s last three runs has trended less snow for metro, GFS has been warm and rain for several days/model runs.

    Time will tell what we actually get but safe to say a storm is coming

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  3. It's amazing how all of the models were in agreement (and were accurate) more than a week out in regard to the recent blizzard that hit the Dakotas, and phase 2 that gave the metro the beautiful wet snow that stuck to everything! Here we are less than 4 days out from the next storm and the models are all over the place.

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  4. Predicted snow totals for next week's storm (10:1 ratio), per the last 4 runs of the Euro (for the Twin Cities):

    10 inches (00z Wednesday)

    10 inches (12z Wednesday)

    2 inches (00z Thursday)

    6 inches (12z Thursday)

    Over at least the last 6 runs the GFS has consistently predicted no snow for the metro. Instead, the GFS takes the heavy snow through northern MN.

    UKMET (last 4 runs): A clear trend towards the Euro.

    CMCE (Canadian) (last 4 runs): consistently 2-3 inches, but the most recent run of the CMCE made a big jump south with the heavy snow and is showing 5 inches (10:1 ratio) for the Twin Cities.

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  5. Thanks for all the models/predictions. Even today: we were supposed to get a couple of inches of snow here in the metro and...... nothing, yet. PWL needs to keep on dancing. I can't wait to see which model 'wins' mid-week with all the interesting predictions above. Thanks again all of you for posting the latest info.

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  6. NWS Forecast Discussion excerpt from this afternoon:

    "A more northerly track like the GEFS and GFS are suggesting would place the MPX CWA more in the warm sector where rain is more likely with a transition to wintry mix and then snow as one heads northwest. Meanwhile, a more easterly track (like in the ECMWF and EPS members) would keep us colder, meaning snow would be the dominant precipitation type. Proximity to the low`s center will also be important as models forecast a few tenths of QPF on the periphery of the system to upwards of 1.5-2" near the low where strongest forcing resides. NAEFS and EPS ensemble mean PWATs both approach 3 standard deviations above climatology across our eastern CWA with this system.

    As usual, all we can do is wait to see which model solution
    prevails. But, active weather (of some sort) is appearing likely
    early next week. In the days following the system`s passage, more
    normal temperatures to start the new year look possible."

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  7. Despite what Schnee Meister posted above with the NWS saying "it's up in the air" as to which model solution will prevail next week (GFS v. Euro), Chris Shaffer on WCCO keeps saying flat out that it will be rain in eastern MN and accumulating snow in western MN (though his extended outlook graphics appear to contradict at least some of that). He said it last night and he said it again a couple of minutes ago. How does he know that? Answer: He doesn't! I think this is a disservice to viewers. IMHO, he should tell viewers what the NWS and other sources are saying..."We don't know which track will prevail. We are watching and waiting to see what track the storm takes". Given the information available, nobody should be saying it is going to snow; it is going to rain, etc., because nobody knows at this point! [Exhale...thanks for letting me get this off my chest]. I am rooting for the Euro!!

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    1. Agreed. I remember long ago this blog used to rate the forecasters with grades after storms were done. :+) "Those were the days." I think the NWS even rates itself on the big storms in terms of their predictions and what 'really happened.; Thanks for bringing up Shaffer's predictions. I agree it is pretty early to be so 'sure' when it is true that 'nobody knows' right now. And to all who have been putting out the models/discussions, I appreciate you all.

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    2. @weathergeek if people post the predicted numbers from each meteorologist I will happily update the original post with the official media predictions. I just only read NWS and model websites so I am out of the loop for media-sourced predictions.

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  8. Yes, thank you to those that post the model runs and predictions. That’s one of the many reasons I enjoy this site.

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  9. Ok winter weather lovers listen up!! The 00z overnight model runs are in and if your hoping for a snow dump early next week(Mon-Tues timeframe) your in luck models are trending snowier…

    -GFS(still a warmer outlier) but the heavy snow swath has moved from northern MN to central MN(metro has an 1”)
    -EURO all snow 8-12”
    -UKMET all snow 8-12”
    -CMC all snow 10-14”
    -NAM(is an 84hr model so a bit too soon, but has snow into western MN by hour 84)

    If these “snowier” trends continue tomorrow and especially if the GFS continues to slide further south with its track I fully expect Winter Storm Watches hoisted within our CWA come Saturday to even include the metro.





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  10. Midday 12Z model update:

    -GFS still favoring a northern track with heavy snow in Central Minnesota….rain/mix/snow for metro but has increased to 3”

    -UKMET still all snow but ticked a bit further south with track still delivering the core metro with 8”+ totals but the dreaded “sharp cutoff” has made its way into the northern metro

    -CMC still the model of choice if you want “big snows”, has the metro core at 10+” and the 18-20” stuff knocking on the door just west bleeding into western Hennipen county, reason for this is is a mix of precipitation on the onset going over to snow eventually in the metro.

    -NAM still too early in the ballgame to show the entire event but as of now it too is following the GFS with its snow band heading from central MN into North shores(Duluth area)

    -EURO has yet to update for this cycle run.

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  11. Adding to BigDaddy's last post. *Snow Point at MSP*


    Latest Runs: (snow ratio Kuchera Ratio) Total Through Wednesday 00Z

    ECMWF
    10.0 12z / 9.0 00z / 5.4 12z (yesterday), 1.7 00z (yesterday)

    GDPS
    8.9 12z / 8.2 00z / 4.1 (12z (yesterday), 0.4 00z (yesterday)

    GFS
    0.5 12z / 0.1 00z / 0.1 12z (yesterday), 0.7 00z (yesterday)

    UKMET

    10.0 12z / 5.9 00z / 11.8 12z (yesterday), 1.8 00z (yesterday)

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  12. Oooh, getting excited! Thank you, DysonGuy, Schnee Meister, and Big Daddy for your continued posts! Love this stuff and more importantly, love snow!

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  13. For what it’s worth The Weather Channel has me forecasted for 7-12” here in New Hope. Their app/forecast is always changing but that’s what they have at this moment.

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  14. I always feel that The Weather Channel is on the low side but 7-12” this far out is great.

    Also, haven’t seen Plymouth Weather Lover chime in yet for this storm. Maybe he/she is dancing on a Caribbean Island over holiday? Or, maybe stuck somewhere with the Southwest Airlines debacle

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  15. I found out this link via FB/Bill/messages to him. I don't know how to find the others, but they must be going NUTS like I have been since the blog disappeared. Good luck, Dave, and hope you get us all back soon. Bless you for keeping the site going, and to Bill, too, as always. Have a safe New Year's Eve. Nobody will see the message above, trust me. :+( If you know how to find people's 'real email links' or something, then maybe......... Again, many thanks to you.

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    1. WTH! What happened? Did the site get hacked…couldn’t get in since like 8 this morning

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  16. Hey all the site is back - very sorry for the snafu!

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  17. The domain registration expired overnight. Unfortunately Bill and I did not get a reminder. We were able to get the domain assigned back to us, but that is why you saw that generic portal page.

    I will be setting up automatic renewals to avoid this in the future - just bad luck it happens to also expire on the last day of each year when its tougher to get in touch with people. Luckily Bill and our domain registrar were very responsive today.

    Sorry again!

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    1. No worries!!!…Thank you for the info as well as getting it figured and sorted out, Dave and Bill you guys rock! You ain’t kidding about that bad timing….we have a lot of weather and happenings to catch up on!
      Be safe everyone as we ring in the New Year!!

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  18. Looks like more of an ice /
    mix storm for us SE Minnesota folks.

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  19. The latest NAM seems to have shifted the bullseye ever so slightly southeast, covering all of Hennepin and Ramsey counties with a solid snow potential if the temps stay cold enough.

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  20. Nobody going to bring up that 20”+ the EURO is showing for MSP?

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  21. Ohhhh, I’m getting excited!

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  22. Yay, we are back! Good quick work. I missed seeing the blog. Here is my favorite quip from Mr Paul Douglas in his blog in the local paper this morning about Tuesday's storm: "A storm forecast to track from Denver to Waterloo, Iowa, will push a shield of snow into the metro area Tuesday, and plowable amounts are possible. ECMWF hints at 5-10 inches. 3-CPO and Hal may disagree. Siri and Alexa - any opinion?" I got a hoot out of it. Have a safe New Year's Eve, folks. Thanks for all the model printouts/etc. "Let it snow."

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  23. GFS with a huge jump south with 13 inches going through downtown msp and almost 30 inches in sw mn.

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  24. Canadian model has also went south. I always find the NWS and their reasoning behind how they forecast interesting. They seemed to not use much if any data from the Euro model with their forecast they posted earlier today. I can remember numerous times over the years where they went all out on the GFS, NAM model for a snow storm maybe 3-4 years ago. Showing 12-18 inches for MSP while the Euro model showed nothing. You can probably guess which one won out.

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  25. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 31, 2022 at 11:07 PM

    Here I am!! I am revved! Dancing in the New Year and for a huge storm at the same time. Dancing Double!

    Some of our biggest storms have a close by ice/sleet cut off. If we can just keep this cut off SE of the metro, that would make this weather lover very happy.

    Dancing Double!! Bring it!!

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  26. 00Z Midnight update:

    GFS….shifted south with the heavy snow track putting the metro squarely in the bullseye 15”

    UKMET…holding steady for days…heaviest snow thru the metro 9”+

    NAM….heavy snow track shift north of metro 3-5”
    GDPS(🇨🇦)…holding steady with heavy snow track thru the metro 16”

    EURO….slight shift south with heaviest snow 10”+ for metro….14-18 south metro

    I expect a major update with our winter storm watch with the AM discussion from the NWS due to all models(except the NAM) bringing in some heavy snow amounts!

    HAPPY NEW YEAR FELLOW SNOW LOVERS!!

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  27. Latest Runs: (snow ratio Kuchera Ratio) Total Through Wednesday 00Z (Airport)

    ECMWF 7.9 06z, 13.9 00z, 14.1 18z (yesterday), 11.6 12z (yesterday)
    GFS 7.4 06z, 7.8 00z, 7.2 18z (yesterday), 0.8 12z (yesterday)
    NAM 9.3 06z, 1.1 00z, 5.2 18z (yesterday), 7.1 12z (yesterday)
    RDPS 7.6 06z, 11.6 00z, 0.9 18z (yesterday), 0.8 12z (yesterday)

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  28. Thanks for all the models, even though some of them make my eyes cross trying to 'read' them the right way. :+) Novak just put out a 'map' on his FB page but no snow numbers, yet. MSP is at the north end of his 'high/alter your travel plans' oval. One tricky storm, eh? The anticipation, oh, the anticipation!!!

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  29. Good morning and Happy New Year, fellow MN Forecasters! Dave/Bill, thank you for getting the site back up and running!!

    Despite the encouraging (for snow lovers) signals from almost all of the models of a good dumping of snow in the Twin Cities, the NWS isn't on board as of this morning. They are concerned about the warm nose aloft, and guess where that battle ground appears to be right now...yes, you're right, the Twin Cities. Is it just me or do the Twin Cities more often than not end up in the battle ground zone?

    This is an excerpt from this morning's NWS forecast discussion:

    "The next part of this discussion will be about the warmer air and
    the variety of precipitation types that come with it. Forecast
    soundings show a pretty pronounced warm nose centered around 800 to 850 mb that should be enough to melt any ice crystals in the atmosphere. How long this warm nose lasts depends on location. For a location like Redwood Falls the profiles cools quickly as it saturates and it should be mostly snow. To southeast at Albert Lea this warm air aloft holds as it saturates with rain more likely and then it comes down to surface temperatures to determine rain vs freezing rain. Unfortunately one of the areas where this is much more complex is around the Twin Cities. The profile starts as snow favoring until the warm air advection kicks in on Monday then the profile warms with rain/freezing rain becoming more likely until the main low passes and we move into the cooler northwest sector of the low ending the warm air advection and allowing a changeover to snow. So there are three main areas: all or mostly snow, the transition zone with a wintry mix, and the mostly rain/freezing rain area. The snow area will be in the northwest and the other areas will occur as you move farther southeast toward the surface low`s track. The exact locations of these three zones are still an area of uncertainty at
    this point."

    Does anyone else (randyinchamplin, etc.?) have any insight into this warm nose issue and the likelihood of it dousing Twin Cities big snow hopes?

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    1. I honestly don't know where the nws is getting their info.. the only model that's off is the gfs and it seems that's the one their going by, and we know how well that goes. You would think they would know better by now from learning from past mistakes.

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    2. Even the latest GFS run is painting 9-14 inches for the metro.

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  30. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 1, 2023 at 11:21 AM

    I mean this is getting more than exciting!! Bring it!

    I am concerned about the lack of significant cold air to the north of the path of the low. However, I do this this storm is deep enough to create the dynamic cooling we need to get a large amount of snow. Don't bring the drizzle, freezing drizzle, sleet, etc. garbage!!

    I love how almost all of the models are on the same page - this is significant. And we are only 24-36 hours away from it starting.

    Bring it!

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    1. I'm more worried about dry air working into the system. You can already see totals going down for the metro. SE MN on the other hand looks like the jackpot for 12-24 inches of snow.

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    2. the snow totals for the metro going down are not because of dry air is because of the urban heat island that the snow has to overcome. there is P L E N T Y of moisture

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    3. You can see the bands of snow breaking apart as they move towards the metro and on east. We have a high pressure system sitting in northern MN that will most likely delay the onset of any accumulating snow until 4-8am Tuesday.

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  31. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 1, 2023 at 11:23 AM

    One more thing I just noticed. The short-term models (RAP and the 15z HRRR are starting to show the heaviest snow band setting up just on the metro and south. This would be really good for less mix stuff, but I hope the heaviest doesn't end up going south.

    STAY RIGHT OVER THE METRO. Bring it!!!

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  32. Latest Runs: (snow ratio Kuchera Ratio) Total Through Thursday 00Z (Airport)

    ECWWF 13.2 12z, 7.9 06z, 13.9 00z, 14.1 18z (yesterday), 11.6 12z (yesterday)
    GFS 8.7 12z, 7.4 06z, 7.8 00z, 7.2 18z (yesterday), 0.8 12z (yesterday)
    NAM 10.7 12z, 9.3 06z, 1.1 00z, 5.2 18z (yesterday), 7.1 12z (yesterday)
    RDPS 15.7 12z, 7.6 06z, 11.6 00z, 0.9 18z (yesterday), 0.8 12z (yesterday)
    GDPS 16.2 12z, 12.5 00z

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  33. Updated NWS forecast for Plymouth/Maple Grove is 5-10 inches, starting late tomorrow afternoon.

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  34. This morning the forecast was 3-7 inches, so it has increased 2-3 inches.

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    1. i think the nws is gonna be eating crow...

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    2. You could be right. It has happened before. What is interesting to me is that just checking now, Mr Novak still has not put out any inches. That is interesting. I trust his forecasts 99.9999% of the time for all the years I've been watching him work on this blog and on FB. Like I always say, time will tell...... but it is definitely interesting given that it is 5:26 p.m. the day before this all starts.

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  35. Now the nws has northern goodhue county in a winter weather advisory for 2-4 inches of snow...

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  36. The NWS Winter Storm Warning has been hoisted for the metro; 5-11" in my zip code from 3 p.m. Monday until 6 p.m. Tuesday. Feeling a tad sorry that daycares in schools won't be running for folks trying to work, but bring it, bring it, bring it. What kid can't enjoy a ton of fresh new snow?

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  37. And I have a question for the weather gurus w/computer models: 'Time and Date' keeps telling me 20" of snow is coming Jan 13-15 and it's been saying it to me for about five solid days now. What do you all see in your models for that weekend? That would be a-m-a-z-i-n-g.

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  38. How much snow have we had so far this year? Seems ahead of normal.

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    1. According to NOAA's site/climate history: since 12/1 we have had 19.8 inches of snow at MSP airport. Normal value = 11.7. Last year we were at 21.5 so kind of the same but yes, running ahead of normal averages. The record snowfall at MSP for Jan 3 (Tuesday) is 9.0 inches in 1906. There's a chance we can break it.

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    2. Chanhassen has had 23.5 inches since Dec 1. They don't have as much climatology history at that site as they do at MSP Airport. I smile when I see we are -.3 of an inch of precip for January on this first day of January..... because we are going to go nicely above that/make up that deficit with the storm that is coming in.

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  39. Latest Runs: (snow ratio Kuchera Ratio) Total Through Wednesday 18Z (Airport)
    ECMWF 13.1 18z, 13.2 12z,
    GFS 10.5 18z, 8.7 12z,
    NAM 12.4 18z, 10.7 12z,
    RDPS 14.3 18z, 15.7 12z,
    GDPS 16.2 12z

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  40. im taking novak over the nws on this storm... i think their overplaying the gfs

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  41. Dry air is still going to be a big problem and very few are accounting for that. As you move east and north of Mankato I believe we will see a major drop off in totals. Not only due to dry air but also the east metro could be dealing with freezing rain.

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    1. as i said before there wont be any dry air, if anything its going to be rain or sleet... novak has even stated this in on facebook in his comment section.

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    2. GDPS 14-16 inches going through goodhue county and the twin cities getting 10.5 and rochester on the edge of double digits

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  42. 00Z models are rolling in
    GFS….14+
    NAM….12+
    (These are 10:1 ratio)

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  43. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 1, 2023 at 10:27 PM

    Bring it! Just bring it!!

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  44. Weather Channel in New Hope area: 7-14”
    That’s a large range, ranges shouldn’t be more then four inches then it becomes just a “I’m covering my ass forecast”

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  45. Just reviewed the forecast from WCCO, KSTP, KARE and Fox 9. All of the stations, except Fox 9, are calling for heavy snow in the metro, possibly up to 10 inches. In contrast, Ian Leonard on Fox 9 is saying some areas of the metro could possibly get as much as 4 or 5 inches. Ian is calling for a mix in the Twin Cities until sometime Tuesday night when he says it will finally turn to all snow. He is not bullish on a big snow in the Twin Cities at all. We will see who is ultimately right.

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  46. Novak is at 6-10”+ thru the metro

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    1. Too much snow... first band of snow tries to develop around the 0Z-03Z on Tuesday but has a very hard time doing so due to the dry air being drawn in from the high pressure system in northern MN. Not sure why Ben thinks this won't be an issue but I do. The second band of snow with very heavy snow fall rates will only last for a few hours before the dry punch moves in effectively shutting off anymore snow. My prediction for MSP is 3-6 inches of snow as of right now. Perhaps things will change with the 06Z or 12Z model runs tomorrow.

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  47. Getting a little concerned about this storm. The models seem to show the warm air impacting snow totals over the eastern part of the state. The newer HRRR and RAP are showing signs of this. I am not sure if the mix people are right or the dry slot people are right I hope they both are wrong and we get a ton of snow.

    Bring on the ton!!! Ton Dance forthcoming.

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  48. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 2, 2023 at 8:31 AM

    Last comment was Plymouth Weather Lover

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  49. I know nobody can control the weather. It's just frustrating that here we are in January...in Minnesota...with a large storm taking an historically perfect track for heavy snow in southern Minnesota, yet we are contending with a mixed bag of precip, including possibly just plain ole cold rain. Ironically, last week we had tons of subzero cold air here. Now we have no reservoir of very cold air to tap for this storm like we usually do. Also, a couple of weeks ago the models and forecasters locked into a very accurate forecast for the big two phase storm more than a week before the storm arrived. Contrast that with this storm, which is supposed to start tonight, and forecasters still have many questions about its track, precip types, etc. This is despite almost all of the models still indicating several inches of snow for the metro. I understand weather is fickle and complex. This just doesn't have the feel of a classic old fashioned Minnesota snowstorm. Perhaps because it's not? I hope I'm wrong. Let it snow!!

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  50. Here's a little more hope for the Twin Cities. This is from Accuweather's updated forecast this morning.

    "In Minneapolis, confidence has increased that heavy snow, in excess of 6 inches, will fall for most of the metro area. Half a foot of snow or more is likely even though some sleet and freezing rain may mix in for a time. The icy mix is most likely south and east of the city, but since snow is likely to continue into Wednesday over a portion of the Upper Midwest, heavy snowfall can still be achieved."

    "The upcoming round of winter precipitation is just the latest in what has been a rather stormy start to the winter season across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with many cities running significantly above average in terms of snowfall.

    For example, Minneapolis has received 32.6 inches of snow since Nov. 1, 2022, compared to the average during the time frame of nearly 18 inches. Rapid City and Sioux Falls, South Dakota, as well as Fargo, have also tallied snow amounts of 150-160% of normal since Nov. 1."

    Wow, I did not realize MSP has recorded more than 2.5 feet of snow this winter already!

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  51. Most snowstorms in the metro are like Vikings games. The Vikes can't just dominate an opponent (we can't just get all snow and be done with it). Instead every Vikes game is a nailbiter to the very end, except when they are being crushed by Dallas or Green Bay.

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  55. Latest Runs: (snow ratio Kuchera Ratio) Total Through Thursday 00z (Airport)
    ECMWF 10.1 12z
    GFS 5.6 12z
    NAM 10.1 12z
    NAM 3KM 4.0 12Z
    RDPS 14.8 12z
    GDPS 17.2 12z
    HRWFV3 1.0 12z
    UKMET 8.3 12Z

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  56. Lots of uncertainty it seems. New totals for my area are now 6-14”.

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  57. New totals for Plymouth/Maple Grove are now 7-15". It was 5-11" earlier today.

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    1. My new totals are 8-16" in St Louis Park. Quite a spread. Prayers up; someone in my family has to drive to a brand new job tomorrow. It's not going to be easy!! Prayers up also that we get snow (like the pretty snow that is falling right now) and not a ton of ice. I'm sure that is why the snow totals are 'lower' and then 'higher' because one doesn't know how much will be 'rain/ice.' I'm going to have to ask PWL to make sure it's a SNOW dance and not an ice dance, ha ha. It's been fun and educational watching all the notes/info on this blog. Keep it coming for the next several days plus in the aftermath to see who came out on top of the snow pile. :+)

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  58. Looking at the soundings from several forecast models, some hour by hour, some every 3 hours, based on central Hennipen County . They all have a warm sector around 900mb but all of them have max temp right at the freezing level. Difficult forecast indeed. However it has been my opinion that the models underestimate the effects of dynamic cooling. Having said that, I think it would be wise for the forecasters to lean to the higher snowfall totals

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  59. NWS shifted the timing of the Winter Storm Warning to start at 2am Tuesday and last through Wednesday evening.

    They also increased the total from 4-8” up to 7-10”.

    I like the trend!

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  61. The nws is all over the board, first the warning for goodhue county was a winter storm watch for 5-8 inches. Then it went to a weather advisory for 1-4 inches, now it's still an advisory but for 3-9 Inches with possible of up to a 12 in some spots.... I think their on crack.

    And I think its odd that we haven't heard from novak on facebook or on here.

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    1. Agreed to all. I think Mr Novak/Bill had a connection/did their videos/etc and that Bill moving west kind of broke that connection. Mr Novak does not come on here as often now and does his own videos on FB. You are also correct, Ben that since his post of 'let's get this party started/ locked and loaded' 22 hours ago, he has been quiet on FB. At least the chatter on here is plentiful, full of info, predictions, and discussion! The anticipation, oh the anticipation...........

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  62. Mr Novak just posted an update on FB 7 minutes ago. He did very minor 'massaging' of his charts, but the metro is still in a 6-10" swath and 'thick slush'......

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  63. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 2, 2023 at 7:58 PM

    The stage is set. These storms - with warm air in place and potential dry slots - are just plain ol fun.......even though they are frustrating. Weather would be boring if we knew exactly what was going to happen. This storm keeps the energy alive and keeps us talking/predictions/looking at all of our sources, etc. Just very fun!

    I am hoping for ALL SNOW!! I am doing the ALL SNOW Dance which did not work back on December 20, but I have made some noticeable tweaks to the dance and I am very hopeful.

    Bring it!!

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  64. Looks like precip is having a hard time making a north push into the metro as I type, dry air winning out perhaps from those commenting about it above. NWS(on Twitter) also mentioned don’t expect much overnight at MSP

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  65. Yesterday I decided to rake some snow off the roof, looks like that was a good move.

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  66. Some of the short term models are coming in, keep in mind that historically the Nam and to some degree the Nam 3km have shown a northern bias Other than that, most of the short term models are lighting up the metro for major snow fall. My forecast, SE metro 6-8, NE metro 9-11, SW metro 11-14, NW metro 12-15. This is looking like a historic event. Like most historical snowstorms for the metro, we need some warmer temps that can hold more moisture, the question is the temp profiles at the start of the storm.

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  67. This feels like a March storm in January. I can't wait to see how this day unfolds. Cody Matz on our local Ch 9 calls it 'dippin' dot' pellets right now and he also said this feels like March v January when January snows are typically much fluffier. Stay safe everyone.

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  68. Currently NWS shows 4-6” for the Twin Cities today, and another 4-6” Wednesday through Thursday morning.

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  69. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 3, 2023 at 9:20 AM

    Here we go! Starting to snow very nicely in Plymouth!

    Bring it!

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  70. Pretty heavy snow here in SE Minneapolis. I was not expecting this pace after NWS backed down to “moderate” snow. I don’t think the sky above me is hurting for moisture. Just hoping the wintery mix stays at bay.

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  71. It's classic March! Just went out trying to walk/drive/etc. I still have a 7-15" spread of possibilities in St Louis Park per NOAA when all is said/done. Stay safe. Let it snow.

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  72. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 3, 2023 at 1:01 PM

    We are about to get dry slotted. So glad that snow will fill in behind the dry slot. What a powerful storm! Bring more. Bring it!

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    1. Since you posted this and I'm slightly to the south/St Louis Park, no dry slot here since your post though I think I see what you're seeing on radar. Still pouring snow, though. I see the wind picking up, too. Keep dancing.

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    2. And a P.S. The snow totals are now raised for 9-18" in St Louis park...... through Wednesday. Niiiiiiiiice.

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  73. I should have watched Mr Novak's update/new video because it explained the dry slot and intense snow ahead of it very nicely to me, Plymouth Weather Lover........ more rounds coming later today. Woo hoo.

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  74. Alrighty, not too shabby today. What do the models say for any remaining accumulation?

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  75. Dry slot has moved out in Saint Paul. Snowing again. Shoveled 5 to 6 inches earlier. Looks like another 5 to 6 on the way.❄️

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  76. Shoveled 5” in Golden Valley! What will phase II bring…

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  77. What a surprise to wake up to so much new snow and school cancellations! I did not expect phase 2 to produce more than a few inches over the course of the day today.

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  78. Dave, I agree. We picked up several inches since late last night. Currently, a large area of very heavy snow is moving west across the metro. Surprised they haven’t hoisted the winter storm warning again.

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  79. Well...I'm having major snow envy today. Wishing you a happy snowstorm from NC. :-)

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  80. So beautiful out there right now! I measured another 6" of new snow overnight this morning here in 55126. We had about 5" yesterday and then a period of freezing drizzle. NWS is continuing to call for an additional 2-5" throughout the day today. Good stuff!

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  81. Just measured 4 inches on a sidewalk I scraped and heavily salted last night. The snow had to overcome the salt before it could accumulate, so we definitely picked up about 6 new inches of snow overnight to go with the 6 inches we got yesterday, which will be added to the additional accumulations today! The models that were calling for 12+ inches in the metro have hit the mark! Let it snow!!

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  82. Got the same amount of snow overnight as we did yesterday….10” and still counting in GV.

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  83. Channel 4 just said the airport officially has 10 inches and is expecting possibly up to 5 more inches today! Randyinchamplin posted the other night that this storm could be historic. I agree, especially if the airport officially gets 12+ inches from one storm.

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  84. The Euro model wins again! It took several days for the GFS and ensembles to finally come in agreement with the Euro.

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  85. A foot at Chanhassen NWS per Fox9 and more snow falling. This is a great classic March storm. I went walking (slooooow going) after not trying to drive to/canceling a morning appointment, and it is gorgeous out there, snow lovers. Novak is warning that all this high/heavy water content may not be good on large flat roofs. This morning he wrote on FB: "The snow/liquid or water content of the snows over the last month in the Twin Cities has been incredible. By my calculations, MSP Int'l will have over 3.00"+ of water locked-up in the snow. That is some heavy weight on roofs & exposed surfaces = potential problems due to white concrete." Hope you all get dug out safely/let it s-n-o-w.

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  86. MSP Airport 10.0 inches per Keith M on Fox9. St Louis Park 11.8 inches; St Paul 11.1; Plymouth 9.5; Fridley 11.5; 13.2 in Eagan; 13.5 Apple Valley. He says we will all end up with 10 to 15 inches 'easily.'

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  87. Solid foot plus here in Woodbury.. 8-10 inches of snow fell just overnight with apparently a few more inches to go. One for the record books for sure!

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  88. MSP International 12.2” @ 12Noon

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  89. Well since this one is pretty well wrapped up, don't look now but something might be brewing on the 15th

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    1. Not over yet another round after a long lull is upon us, “part III” tonight?

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  90. Not done yet! Another snow band is rapidly intensifying over the metro. Snowfall rates at or exceeding one inch per hour.

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    1. Can confirm coming down hard in GV again! Hell of a storm!!

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  91. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 4, 2023 at 9:01 PM

    This is amazingly unreal! Bring it!!

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  92. Is it just me or does it seem storms are slowing down when they get to the twin cities this year. And even before they get here they seem to get here slower.

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  93. Not sure, but 8.8 at MSP yesterday (part of the storm total) is a new daily record so can't wait to see it on my weather calendar next year as a reminder of this great snowfall we just had. It's been fun looking back on all the predictions on this blog, too, before the event and then info after the event.

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  94. MSP International @14.9” as of 12midnight

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  95. A Top 14 snowfall event for the metro. Astonishing.

    Also...when I look at that list, it's no wonder most of us think that Minnesota used to get big snowstorms. 9 of the top 23 happened between January 1982 and December 1985. That's crazy!

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  96. I hope MSP can come up with another tenth of an inch. Keith M just posted a chart on Channel 9 and 'dig this'.... Season Snow through January 4: this storm helps us get to the number three spot behind the famous 1991 year where there were 61.8 inches by now and 1983-4 with 51.4 inches by this date. Heck, let's see what we can do by the end of the snowfall season. There is another chance for a bunch of snow around 1/16, isn't there snow gurus?

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    1. I forgot to say: we are at 48.1 inches to date this snow season, coming in at number three. Sorry!

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  97. Awesome storm! Kudos to Randyinchamplin on his prediction that this would be an historic storm! We are looking at 15-16 inches of fresh snow here in the Plymouth/Maple Grove area. Winter is off to a great start! It will be fun to see what the remainder of winter brings! Enjoy the snow and be safe out there, everyone!

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  98. Fun few days! And it's only early January! Thanks to everyone who provides updates and commentary on models. And a special thanks to PWL for all that dancing!

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