Who Saw This Heat Coming? One Forecaster ... Sort Of

Last Wednesday night, we noted the various forecasts for the extended outlook (which took us to Monday thru Wednesday of the current week). We were gobsmacked to see the forecast of one station and one forecaster stand out. Per the Monday through Wednesday period detailed below, KSTP was predicting temperatures considerably above the others, particularly for the middle day (Tuesday).

WCCO: 85/85/80
KSTP: 88/92/94
FOX: 84/85/84
KARE: 84/--/--
NWS: 83/81/83
Weather.com: 87/85/77
Accuweather.com: 80/75/74
Strib: 79/76/75

We raised the seemingly odd prediction with a member of the KSTP meteorology staff, who confirmed the prediction with us last Thursday morning (below):

As everyone knows by now, the Twin Cities shattered a record, and KSTP's seemingly overly enthusiastic prediction of 92 for today (as of last Wednesday) turned out to off by double digits from the actual temperature.

Still, being off by 11 degrees passes as a sterling forecast in comparison to the prognostications from other forecasts, one of which (the Star Tribune forecast) was off by 27 degrees. Here's how far off the Twin Cities (and national) forecasters were six days in advance of today's record heat:

WCCO: 18
KSTP: 11
FOX: 18
KARE: no prediction made beyond five days (a wise choice?)
NWS: 22
Weather.com: 18
Accuweather.com: 28
Strib: 27

While KSTP deserves credit for predicting a heat wave that nobody else was able to see in the extended outlook, KSTP also detailed in its blog a day or two ago that temperatures would remain above normal for at least 10 days. That, it certainly appears based on a now-universally predicted chill down, will not come to fruition. Ah, the weather, ever hard to predict.

High Dewpoints Exaggerated by Some Forecasters
In several cases, a few weathercasters overpredicted dew points. The Strib called for dew point temperatures to be in the 70s for both Monday and Tuesday. Neither happened, and in fact dew points actually spent some significant time in the 50s. Fox also suggested that dew points would get into the 70s on at least one occasion. From our perspective, this was really not an especially steamy scenario. Warm and uncomfortable to be sure, but not as sauna-like as it could have been or as some forecasters would have you believe.

A Picture For Your Grandchildren
As of late Tuesday afternoon, here's a graphic you'll hardly ever see. The Twin Cities boasted the hottest temperature in the country.

 

The smoky sunset that concluded the 103-degree day:

Considerable Variance in Degree of Thursday Cool Down

There seems to be considerable variance in the temperature forecasts this time of year. As of Monday night, while there's universal agreement on a big cool down coming during midweek, there's still a wide range of forecasts for the high temperature on Thursday. KSTP (Dave Dahl), who was the clear winner on the forecast for the current warm weather, continues to be forecast temperatures that are warmer than anyone else. Fox's Ian Leonard has the coolest forecast for Thursday with 65. With just two and a half days remaining until high temperatures are reached Thursday afternoon, here's what the local prognosticators were predicting:

WCCO: 69
KSTP: 75
Fox: 65
KARE: 71
NWS: 67
Weather.com: 66
Accuweather: 72
Strib:69

Seven Days Out, 20-Degree Disparity in Forecast Highs for Wed. June 8

Monday evening: The Monday temperature is now in the books with a high of 97. No forecasters were close to that temperature with their 5-day advance forecast.

(Read ahead to the second paragraph to see the latest updated temperature forecasts for the Monday-Wednesday period).

Watching KSTP's Dave Dahl forecast a considerable heat wave next week (punctuated by a forecast of a whopping 94 for next Wednesday) got us to thinking it was time to do another extended outlook temperature analysis, something we haven't done since forecasts of extreme cold back in January. As of late Wednesday evening, here was the amazing variance in forecast high temps for several days next week. (The high temperatures detailed below are for Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday.)

WCCO: 85/85/80
KSTP: 88/92/94
FOX: 84/85/84
KARE: 84/--/--
NWS: 83/81/83
Weather.com: 87/85/77
Accuweather.com: 80/75/74
Strib: 79/76/75

As of Saturday night, the forecast highs for the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday period were as follows. Except for KSTP, which initially predicted considerably hotter M-Wed. temps than all others, virtually all weather outlets have upped their forecast high temperatures. At this point, weather.com is the outlier with temperatures for Wednesday considerably cooler than all others.

WCCO: 86/89/89
KSTP: 86/92/90
FOX:85/90/88
KARE: 89/90/87
NWS: 86/90/90
Weather.com: 89/91/80
Accuweather.com: 86/93/88
Strib: 88/91/85

Forecasters Foresee Friday Firecracker

On this first day of meteorological summer (June 1), mother nature seems poised to produce the hottest day of the year thus far on Friday. Here's the forecast high for the various weathercasters in the Twin Cities as of 7 p.m. on Wednesday.

WCCO: 89*
KSTP: 92
Fox: 91
KARE: 88
NWS: 90
Strib: 90 (mid-day update)

*On the 6 p.m. forecast, WCCO's Chris Shaffer chose to show the forecast temperatures estimated by "one of the models." The model, presumably the one that showed the hottest temperatures, depicted a temperature of 94 for the Twin Cities, but, Shaffer added, "I don't think it'll get that warm." Our question is simply this: Why show a model with a temperature that's a full five degrees greater than what you are forecasting? WCCO has done a similar thing with snowfall forecasts in the winter. It seemed irresponsible then and it seems irresponsible now.

Chris Shaffer provides a visual of one model's forecast high temperatures.

Enjoy the heat, as at least one major national weather provider is forecasting a cooler than normal summer. Here's Accuweather's forecast for summer temperatures: