Stunning Disparity Among Forecasters in Long Range Forecast

At the Minnesota Forecaster, we love it when forecasters have differences of opinion. When all weather outlets predict the same thing it's boring.

As of this Wednesday evening, we've got a wide range of forecasts for next Wednesday (Dec. 18). The difference in high temperature forecasts between KARE and KSTP is a whopping 21 degrees!

**Update as of Thursday morning** KARE -- and to a lesser extent  WCCO -- have made significant revisions in their extended forecast. Overnight, KARE adjusted its Wednesday forecast from 9 to 29, while WCCO upped the forecast high from 12 to 20. It's obviously still way early, but it appears that KSTP grasped the trend before most other stations.

**Update as of Thursday evening** KARE is BACK to a forecast high of 9 on Wednesday. KSTP now forecasts a high of 20 for Wednesday.

WCCO

KSTP

KARE

Here are the forecast highs for next Wednesday that we gathered late this evening:

WCCO: 12
KSTP: 30
KMSP: not obtained
KARE: 9
NWS: 22
Accuweather: 14
Weather.com: 22

Two to Four Inches is Most Popular Forecast for Sunday Snow

Don't look up. More snow's in the forecast.

Most forecasters were on board with a 2-4" snowfall forecast for Sunday. The exception was KSTP with 1-3". Here's a look at forecasts we picked up on Saturday morning.

WCCO: 2-4" (morning broadcast)
KSTP: 1-3" (KSTP weather blog)
KMSP: 2-4" (KMSP weather blog)
KARE: 2-4" (website video)
MPR: 1-3" (not clear on this forecast; also info from blog post at 5 p.m. Friday)
TWC: "light accumulations" per 60-second video (rather useless for our purposes)
NWS: 2-4". (No advisory posted, at least yet)
Strib: 2-4"

Wide Disparity in Forecast for Dec. 3-4 Snow Event

With winter precipitation expected to begin by midnight, here’s the latest summary from the various forecasters. KSTP has the most aggressive forecast with 6-10” forecast. Accuweather and Minnesota Forecaster in-house forecaster Tom Novak were on the lower side. As we’ve seen fairly often over the last several years, KSTP is at the high end for TV forecast outlets and KARE is at the low end. (It’s been suggested that you can take half the KSTP forecast and arrive at the KARE forecast; that seems to be the case in this instance.)

We were struck by the NWS comment regarding their confidence in the forecast. A tweet at 3:04 p.m. this afternoon stated, “Confidence where that rain/snow line will setup is below average this close to the event.)”

Finally, if you’d like to learn more about the atmospheric dynamics causing the upcoming storm scenario, view our video with forecaster Tom Novak.

The all-important jet stream.

WCCO: 3-6 (5 p.m. news)
KSTP: 6-10” (late afternoon blog update)
KMSP: Either missed it or no totals were mentioned
KARE: Says 2-5” but shows model data depicting 5” (4:57 website video)
MPR: 3-7 per 4:07 blog update
NWS: 4-9” (weather.gov – Minneapolis)
TWC: 5-8 per map on NBC News
Accuweather: 1-3”
Tom Novak: 2-4”
Strib: 2-4” (blog last updated 8:42 a.m.)

A Forecast in Flux

As of late Monday night, predictions for a possible snow event Tuesday night into Wednesday was, as MPR’s Paul Huttner put it, “a forecast in flux.” Although the National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Watch mid-afternoon Monday, there was a sense that many forecasters were not quite buying into such lofty possibilities. However, there was also a sense that the storm was taking a more southerly route, which would bring heavier accumulations closer to the Twin Cities from the north.

Here’s our recap of forecasts gathered late Monday night for snow possibilities Tuesday night into Wednesday.

WCCO: 1-3” but more possible later on Wed.

KSTP: 3-5” (10:40 p.m. on news)

KMSP: No specific amounts mentioned in 10 p.m. news

KARE: 2” (10:40 video posting on website)

NWS: 3-6”

MPR: “Early hunch” 1-6” from south to north (Updraft blog 10:46 p.m.)

Strib/Paul Douglas: 2-4” (11:21 p.m. update)

Accuweather: 1.67” (we added the 12-hour amounts posted on the site)
The Weather Channel: <1” (weather.com)

Side note: We did want to bring attention to what we consider one of the better weather blogs for a Twin Cities television forecaster (i.e., excepting MPR and Strib weather columns). KMSP's Cody Matz provided some nice graphics and an accompanying explanation of how and why the expected heavier snow accumulations have moved south in this blog.

Finally, a reminder that you can find us on Twitter and Facebook.

KARE11

WCCO

NWS

Weather Channel (weather.com)