Heap of Cold, Ounce of Snow

As the calendar turned to 2018, snow aficionados were wondering if the cold would ever yield a reasonable snowfall. The watch -- and the wait -- continues.

The View from Mid-December

Snow has been relatively scarce this winter season. As we move into mid-December, there were inklings of a storm late next week. If that doesn't develop, prepare for a metropolis to go frantic in search of a white Christmas.

Snowstorm Next Weekend?

The NWS discussion alerts to the possibility of snow potential next week. Rather than put words in their mouth, we'll let their words speak for themselves:

Model consistency is still rather poor for next weekend`s storm potential. However, the pattern remains favorable for a trough translating across the northern Rockies, spawning an elongated
area of low pressure over the Plains as strong surface ridging remains on the east coast. Meridional flow in advance of the shallow trough would bring increasing moisture and lift, generating widespread precipitation along the leading edge of the trough. This would be more of an inverted trough snow with a nebulous low pressure center and moderate accumulations, unless the surface cyclone deepens and becomes negatively tilted. If that occurs, a focused area of heavier snow would form on the northern side of the cyclone with significant accumulations. It`s a sensitive pattern with a lot of subtle features coming together which is not as easily predicted as a classic long wave deep trough spawning a single significant cyclone over the southern Plains. Thus, model inconsistency will likely continue for the next day or two with the storm disappearing and reappearing in various models/model runs.

Thoughts on Winter?

It's on the early side for wholesale predictions to come out on the upcoming winter, but it's never too early to start thinking about it (this being Minnesota, after all). What are your bones telling you about the winter of 17-18? Do you have any thoughts to share?