Friday, April 29, 2011

Read It and Weep - 45 Forecast For May 1 (per National Weather Service)

The year without a spring seems destined to continue that way. Here are the forecast high temps for Sunday from a variety of weather outlets (collected Friday evening). Interestingly, the National Weather Service forecast is considerably colder than other outlets.

NWS: Cooler...breezy. Partly cloudy. Highs 45. (West winds 15 to 25 mph adding insult to injury)
Accuweather: 51 (RealFeel® 41)
The Weather Channel: 52
WCCO: 53
KSTP: 49
FOX: 51
KARE11: 53
MPR: 52
Strib: 56

Some ugly windchill temps this Sunday morning!
So Chicago's weather isn't quite the same as the Twin Cities weather, but we thought this was an interesting assessment, one that suggests lasting warm weather is nowhere to be seen in the immediate future. This is from forecaster Tom Skilling's (Chicago) Facebook page:

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces this graphic each day. It's serves as a cold weather indicator for Chi and is produced from the output of the Service's GFS model. When this index (the North Atlantic Oscillation Index or "NAO") goes negative, the odds of cool weather are increased here. It's produced by comparing pressures in Iceland with those in Portugal. The presence of the warm air pool aloft over Greenland and the North Atlantic drives this index into its negative (or cold) phase.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Weathercaster-go-round (and Slush for Wednesday?)

A quick potpourri of Minnesota weathercaster info....

Chikage Windler announced tonight that she's leaving for Indianapolis. Next Sunday will be the last day Chikage graces the KSTP airwaves. Chikage leaves big social media shoes to fill as she was a real trailblazer among local television weathercasters. This follows relatively quickly on the heels of Erik Maitland's leaving FOX 9. Watch his curtain call here.

The weather-go-round continues as well. The Strib weather column published this late Sunday evening includes the possibility of slush for Wednesday morning. Select text includes:

"Models may be exaggerating the risk of slushy snow at the tail-end of the storm Wednesday, but I wouldn't rule anything out at this point. Let's see a few more model runs, but know that rain may mix with a little wet snow Wednesday morning with a potential for a couple inches of slush, especially north/west of the metro."

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Starting to Look Like a Busted Forecast

Check back for forecaster grades Wednesday morning after you dig out from the big storm. (Yes, sarcasm reigns this time of year when there's snow talk.)
One man's miracle or is another man's bad forecast.

Monday, April 18, 2011

Most (But Not All) Forecasters See Repeat of Friday Night for Tuesday Night Storm

Most forecasters saw a repeat of Friday night's storm. The National Weather Service and the Strib appear to be outliers as of Monday evening.  Check out our spreadsheet to see the progressive forecasts leading up to Tuesday evening.

Here are a few select scans that tell some of the story:
These two tweets seem to be going different ways.


Though we haven't tracked The Weather Channel, here is a screen capture from this evening.
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