Friday, April 29, 2011

Read It and Weep - 45 Forecast For May 1 (per National Weather Service)

The year without a spring seems destined to continue that way. Here are the forecast high temps for Sunday from a variety of weather outlets (collected Friday evening). Interestingly, the National Weather Service forecast is considerably colder than other outlets.

NWS: Cooler...breezy. Partly cloudy. Highs 45. (West winds 15 to 25 mph adding insult to injury)
Accuweather: 51 (RealFeel® 41)
The Weather Channel: 52
WCCO: 53
KSTP: 49
FOX: 51
KARE11: 53
MPR: 52
Strib: 56

Some ugly windchill temps this Sunday morning!
So Chicago's weather isn't quite the same as the Twin Cities weather, but we thought this was an interesting assessment, one that suggests lasting warm weather is nowhere to be seen in the immediate future. This is from forecaster Tom Skilling's (Chicago) Facebook page:

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces this graphic each day. It's serves as a cold weather indicator for Chi and is produced from the output of the Service's GFS model. When this index (the North Atlantic Oscillation Index or "NAO") goes negative, the odds of cool weather are increased here. It's produced by comparing pressures in Iceland with those in Portugal. The presence of the warm air pool aloft over Greenland and the North Atlantic drives this index into its negative (or cold) phase.


  1. Could it possibly get more depressing?

    And there is a blizzard warning up for large chunks of ND, jeez.

    I don't ever recall there being no leaves on the trees for May 1. The world is simply upside down right now.

  2. Sunny and 60 on Tuesday, Sunny and 65 on Wednesday per the NWS LaCrosse Office for Lake City. We can do this.

  3. Nothing like having a wind chill factor on May 1st,like I said earlier in the week highs will struggle to get to 50 mostly 40's all day,nothing above average looking out two weeks,in fact most days will be at average or below the longer the cool hangs around the longer the tornadoes stay away,man that some devastation down south I feel really sad for them

  4. 35 at noon on may 1st with nws forecasting snow showers tomorrow morning,this is no spring this is a cruel joke,with clouds and wind I don't believe nws's conservative 45 will be reached,40 at best today

  5. I think this will be the last cold cold for a while... looking ahead I see mid 60's- right around average.

  6. Well, according to the forecasts today, it hasn't gotten above 40 degrees today. And the low is going to be 32-33 degrees tonight. What is wrong with this picture???? It's May 1st??? it feels more like November or March.

  7. randyinchamplinMay 1, 2011 at 5:46 PM

    MPX (nws) has mentioned a hard freeze in area's, low's should be between 27-32° across the cwa, may want to cover tender plants.

  8. It flurried on and off all afternoon. Ridiculous.

  9. I can't believe all the garden centers have plants outside already. Apparently, they aren't watching weather forecasts. :)

  10. 35 at 2pm in the afternoon,do you even think we will hit 40 today?can't even call it winter anymore it's may 2nd,let's just say a crappy spring,I am not complaining though I would prefer it a bit warmer(if we don't see 80 degrees all spring/summer,I would be a happy man,hate the heat and humidity)but at least the storms are staying away!

    Ps---good riddance BIn asshole Laden

  11. Anyone know what dynamics kept this bubble of cold air and clouds nearly stationary over us and NW Wisconsin - it sure looked peculiar on a satellite map, like an oval of energy, like a bullseye, right over us, but sunny all around it, and it was not a low center? Seems very strange to me.
    I just checked - seems we went officially went up from 38 to 39 degrees this hour and so did not tie the old record low high temperature record for May 2 of 38 degrees from 102 years ago.
    This pattern is really getting old. I am praying for a few months of above average - this is the 6th straight month of below average temperatures - everything feels stagnant, and people are really getting squirrelly with this - it looks and feels like mid-November still... very depressing - could use and external boost.
    I agree about the garden centers and stores - will lose stuff if not tended to, and there were frost and freeze warnings up all through Iowa, down into Missouri and Kansas last night and again tonight. I even saw it was only 48 degrees in Dallas today, another bubble of cold air sitting down there, but it was mild in between here and there, even in the 60's as close as a few hours south in Iowa.
    And what about that blizzard in ND? Some areas had 14 inches. Yikes. I agree with the first comment above - the world is upside down right now, just downright bizarre energy.

  12. Looking at the above forecast (although I admit I didn't check it b/c I don't trust it when a strong warm or cold front approaches) I believe everyone relied on the MOSS guidance except the NWS which was still to warm.

    Moss guidance is a crutch that way to many mets relay on, if I know the weakness of the system why don't they? It is well known that Moss is a very weak forecast tool to use when strong fronts are expected. When a warm front is expected forecast above MOSS....when a cold front is expected forecast below MOSS......nuf said

  13. it was a strong cold front....this does not surprise me at family said it was time to put the winter coat away...I said you can put yours away, but don't touch mine lol

  14. bill if your grading temps this weekend everyone fails and nws gets a d for being the closest

  15. It is nice to see the computer models starting to forecast a more zonal flow for the next 7 to 10 days. It will be interesting to see if the jet continues to be strong right into the early summer. If so, I would expect the severe wx to migrate north into MN.

  16. randyinchamplinMay 4, 2011 at 6:30 PM

    Hmmmm....Novak, seems like next week is the tale of two models...The GFS keeps the best instability further south into IA etc...but the ECMWF brings the warmth further north into MN and along with it strong instability...if the ECMWF is correct??? it may mean lower QPF and stronger storms, if the GFS is correct it could mean higher QPF's and marginally severe storms...stay tuned...

  17. Just a heads up that a new blog entry might need to be made for next week. GFS is trending warmer, and the ECMWF is continuing its warm look. Could potentially be looking at some severe weather chances early next week. Typically I wouldn't look too much into it, but it seems to be holding strong in the models, at this point. Upper level support isn't the best in the world, and warm 850mb temps may end up capping things, but just something to watch over the coming days. Some forecasters are going 70's for a few days next week, but if we can get into some sunshine, that 80 degree mark may be reached by some. It's been eerily quiet as far as severe weather goes, and I doubt many are complaining after seeing what has been going down in the south, but if that jet stream continues to howl when it lifts north into its summer pattern, things could get interesting as we get into June and July.

  18. Just set up a new blog post to track the possible warmth for next week!

  19. We had the same lack of spring this year as well, I wonder will it be the same in the future?