Friday, April 15, 2011

Slush Time According to Most Local Forecasters

There’s decent consensus among local forecasters that winter is about to make another appearance in the Twin Cities (halfway into “meteorological spring,” no less!). Here’s the latest summary of what the local weather gurus were thinking.

WCCO: (Midday update) A good 1-2” mainly on the grass

KSTP: (Afternoon blog) Overnight tonight expect a mix of rain and snow mixing to all snow with 1 - 2 inches of slushy accumulation by Saturday morning.

FOX: (morning blog entry) A dash of white can be found on Metro yards for Saturday morning

KARE: (3:55 p.m. update) Expect up to 1 to 2 inches of slushy accumulation on grassy areas by Saturday morning with overnight lows falling into the low to mid 30s

NWS: Rain and snow in the evening...then snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Lows around 30.

Star Tribune: 1-3” of slush

Here's a previous blog post from Wednesday night that seems to have been eat up by the Blogger server. Note that if it does snow, KSTP will be wrong on this forecast.


WCCO: Precip will start as rain Friday evening. We will see a transition to snow. Computer model depiction shows .8 … thinks much will melt on contact. Could see light, slushy accumulation, mainly in yards.


KSTP: Thinks will stay all in the form of rain.

FOX: We’re not talking accumulations; put the shovels away.

KARE Bulk of moisture will be rain, possibility of slush here and there but nothing to be alarmed about.

NWS: Rain/snow Friday evening, then snow after midnight. Accumulation up to one inch. Chance of rain and snow Saturday morning.

Strib: Coating to an inch or two (as of Wednesday morning)

MPR: At this time it doesn't appear that there will be much accumulation about the Twin Cities region, but we reserve the opportunity to revise that by Thursday afternoon.

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25 comments:

  1. So much for a "mainly rain" event. Flakes mixed in from the start and it's all snow now. The final accumulations may still be close but the precip type forecast looks off.

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  2. heavy snows setting up over metro now and next few hours,should see more then 2",I'll go with 3.8"

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  3. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 15, 2011 at 10:37 PM

    I agree big daddy. I will stick with my 6.3 prediction before the end of the snow season. 3 tonight and 3.3 mid week!!

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  5. Sitting with about 0.8" snow in northern Dakota County at 11:26 pm. Of course now it all comes down to how you measure it. It's not going to look like much on the roads, but lawns will be covered.

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  6. serves me right to follow radar trends,looks like just south of metro and east in wisconsin will be the big winners 2-4inches look good there,one inch most areas in heart of metro

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  7. another yawner,precip bands breaking up,proably moved to 4th all-time though,I wish mother nature would stop teasing us,if its going to snow then let it be a good snowfall,if not let spring spring already,next two storms next week have the possiblity for snow mixing in as well,before you know it summer will be here and you'll ask what happened to spring when were suffering thru 90 degree heat with 70 degree dew points

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  8. Well if you go by the NWS snow will be back in the picture next Tuesday(there discussion page talks about it,with another storm by next weekend,I'm thinking Bill you will need to contiue your winter posts going at least another week.

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  9. Not bad for mid April. 2.4" snow in northern Dakota County, most falling b/w 9:00 pm and 1:00 am. Sun trying to peak through at 9:00 am.

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  10. @NovakWeather on TwitterApril 16, 2011 at 9:07 AM

    I'm very concerned about the strom for Tuesday/Wednesday.

    This baby has everything. Fantastic lift up top with diffluence at 250mb associated with a strong jet over northern MN into Great Lakes. Nice looking open wave/disturbance (last nights storm was too wound up). 700mb low passing directly over southern MN. 850mb temps near or just below 32 degrees and a surface low tracking from MCI to MKE. Textbook.

    The only question is where will the heavy snow band set-up. I'm not too worried about warm air screwing things up with this storm eventhough it is mid-April. Best bet is that axis will set-up from FSD to STC to DLH. Perhaps even the MSP metro. This one will be fun to watch.

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  11. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 16, 2011 at 7:40 PM

    Bring on the snow for midweek. If it going to be this cold, may as well snow!! Love your analysis, Novak!!! You are fun to follow. Randyinchamplin, what do you think?

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  12. Plymouth Weather Lover

    When I had some time this weekend I was burning up my computer running a radar program watching the severe outbreak of the last three days, my heart goes out to those across the south and the east that were impacted.

    As for this week, the latest 18z run of the GFS show's a perfect track with the surface low moving through Lacrosse to Eau Claire to
    Green Bay, as it deepens it drastically, it will bring high QPF's to the area, around 1.5", with the majority of that falling as snow. In addition to the surface low it digs a strong negatively tilted 500 mb trough with it and lifts that to WI and and Great lakes region as well as a 700 mb low that stacks nicely with the surface low. The question is can you believe it?

    At this time the 12z ECMWF does not dig the 500mb trough nearly as deep as the GFS and keeps us more or less in a zonal flow. Therefore it is much faster with the surface low and not nearly as strong with a more southerly track and what looks to be about 1/3 the precip.

    At this time I would expect to see a repeat of Friday night based on recent trends.

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  13. Bring it,Novak. Tell me more,I agree with Plymouth weather lover if its cold it might as well snow,inching towards record,i could see 3rd go down,1st/2nd would take just the perfect set-up with next two storms,but anything is possible

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  14. I think the snow band will be south and east of the MSP area. The system will be coming out of the Pacific with a lot of speed, so cyclogenesis over the plains will be further east than a slower moving and more southerly storm. The GFS 500 hPa heights have been steadily trending further SE with the wave. SREF guidance shows a lot of uncertainty with the low track, but the mean takes it too far south and east of MSP to bring the (heavy) snow there. With high certainty, looks like it'll be cold enough for snow in MSP. Heavier snow will probably be a Mason City-Eau Claire-Green Bay line. NAM looks too high with QPF...I would expect strong convection along the cold front moving through the plains to transport some of that moisture back to the surface.

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  15. Last comment by me (P).

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  16. I don't care about all the model details you all are blogging about - Minnesota weather sucks, period. - I can't believe it is even possible for snow in the month of April - that is just plain wrong. So much for spring - now I know what they mean when they say MN has two seasons, winter and road construction. There isn't even a green leaf on a tree or shrub and we are into the third week of April. This is ridiculous and God willing circumstances will take me back out of this hell hole one day to a place with a livable climate. I hope the next storm you are all drooling over goes somewhere else; the cold temperatures are bad enough, but more snow is unconscionable and incredibly hard to swallow since this has been going on since the first week of November.

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  17. This bad boy really, REALLY looks promising. I'm buying into it hook, line and sinker. I can't believe I'm saying this in mid-April but a Major Winter Storm appears likely for much of MN.

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  18. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 16, 2011 at 11:31 PM

    Bring it Novak.

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  19. Anyone notice that Steve Frazier is a weather guy for two different TV stations now? He seems to sub on Fox and still does a few weekends on KSTP. His voice is tough to listen to.

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  20. Novak your exciting me,stop it! I havent heard anyone speak of the next storm like you,at most theres a mention of 'flakes' or 'some wet snow',NWS hasnt commited one way or another,but temps look cold 40 at best tuesday and low 30's at night,what are you seeing that others are playing it closer to the hip?

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  21. For me, the dead giveaway is the strong upper-level dynamics that may be associated with this storm. Whenever I see a strong let core stretching from no. MN east to Ontario, I get confident in a major storm because this set-up usually features an intense over-running event ahead of the main disturbance. Combine that with a coupled jet structure and cold air in place at the surface and you have the makings of a Major SnowStorm.

    Of course, this storm is still 48 to 60 hours out and anything can happen. However, I have not been this confident in a snow event for quite some time. I admit that there is a touch of skepticism since it is mid to late April, but the data seems overwhelming right now.

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  22. I won't be surprised at all if someone in southern and/or central MN measures well over a foot of snow by noon Wednesday.

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  23. WOW Novak,that is a good anaylsis and some statements regarding the nextr storm,I'm ready bring it on,for you to be this confident 48 hrs out is saying something!

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  24. Now I know the weather channel is not the most accurate but was just watching the local forecast and they had red box on the bottom of screen stating "potential of 6" or more of snow wednesday" also accuweather.com has rain changing to snow with 1 to 3 inches,as well as PD in his blog last night showed models calling for 4 to 14 inches,something is brewing Bill,its about time you update your posts the slush of the other day maybe a prelude of things to come.

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  25. Note the new post to discuss the Tuesday night/Wed. possible storm.

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