Sunday, April 10, 2011

Spring Fling Over ... Four-Letter S Word Back in the Forecast

Might it really come back, even if for only a brief visit?
Did you enjoy those precious few hours in the "warm sector" today? Now that the threat of severe weather has scampered well east of the Twin Cities, the juicy weather talk has moved back to something rather familiar: the possibility of snow for late this week. Here are a few choice comments from the ever fearless forecasters of the Twin Cities: (We'll monitor what other weather outlets may have to say about ss ss sssnnno snow in the coming days).

KSTP/Dave Dahl: I hesitate to even bring this up, because most of us have pushed beyond winter, but there is a chance for snow over parts of the state Friday and Friday night.  An unusually cold storm system is expected to drop temperatures enough, that when combined with moisture, could actually produce some snow over southern Minnesota.  Let's hope this is just a figment of the computer's imagination and doesn't become reality, because I don't think many of us can handle more snow.  It's something we'll keep an eye on this week, but watch for updates because this is likely to change before it arrives.

Strib/Paul Douglas: No, I'm not predicting 15" of snow. I'm showing you what the raw model data is suggesting. The GFS has been notoriously bad, especially since February. But the odds of another (major) storm are increasing for the latter half of the week, and enough cold air may wrap into the storm's circulation for a mix of rain and wet snow. But a foot of snow - in mid April? Probably NOT going to happen. And yet that little (insane) voice in the dark recesses of my brain are shouting "be careful Paul!" 

22 comments:

  1. Minnesota at its best (or worst depended on your point of view).

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  2. Bill,thanks for starting this post,the severe weather was a bust and I hated commenting snow potential on a severe weather post but I had no other choice,PD'S sidekick updated on blog that he will have further update on snow potential later and now the weather channel has mentioned snow for fri. night/saturday,seems like alot of outlets are seeing it,just are hestiate to talk about it cause we are in April,but like Joe Bastardi says enjoy the weather cuz its the only weather you got,it will be interesting to se what happens,randyinchamplin or novak you two always seem to have some good insight on the coming weather,what do you see for friday?snow or fluke?

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  3. You gotta luv DD & PD's comments.

    There is no doubt that the system for Friday into Saturday looks impressive. I would be extremely cautious to mention any snow amounts at this point however I am quite confident that there will be flakes in the air over much of southern MN by Saturday AM.

    This will likely turn into a classic April snow event where only the inner-core of the upper-level low will produce accumulating snow. In other words, the periphery of the precipitation shield will fall as rain or a mix while the heaviest deformation band along or just north of the trowal axis will fall as heavy snow associated with dynamic cooling.

    This should be fun to watch.

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  4. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! Is this my fault? Is it because I put my snow boots away for the winter???

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  5. You know, I was sitting outside on my patio drinking beer and enjoying the warm weather, and four hours later I'm inside listening to the howling winds and reading about snow on the weekend. Minnesota in April changes her mind the way my wife does--without warning and in the most bizarre way possible...

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  6. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 10, 2011 at 8:04 PM

    I said before to watch the April 15-18 timeframe. I stick with my 6.3 inches from now until the snow season ends. This storm could do it. I see that only 2 people agree with that and I am one of them! The atmosphere is cold enough for snow. We will see.

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  7. Plymouth weather lover,
    I'm with you,my prediction was 2.3,so I believe we'll get snow,hey I hope we get over foot like the GFS printed out,hell how about 14 to break the record!go out with a bang

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  8. PD's latest tweet: http://twitter.com/#!/pdouglasweather/status/57278052387917825

    If there's one thing we've learned this winter, it's that what is forecast 5-6 days out has rarely played out. Still, it's interesting.

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  9. I promised myself to avoid looking at too much weather on my vacation weekend here in the homeland enjoying three games at Target Field (okay, they didn't exactly lay the wood to the bat except for Jimmy 'Mashin Tators' Thome today via his blast that surpassed all atmospheric fireworks in MN). But, the chatter has been growing so I took a gander and have to say that it, at the least, is very interesting. Models all keying on a small trough in SW Canada moving to the Upper Midwest and really deepening. NovakWeather states it well that in April snows are in the coldest column of air which is within the tight 500mb low region.

    I say that Old Man Winter has pictures (of Mother Nature) thus the season allowed to prolong. That rascal!

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  10. Bring it on! summer sucks

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  11. NWS has snow mention as early as Thursday night now,reading their discussion they are on the fence of calling it an snowstorm,but man is that some cold air coming for Friday and Saturday highs struggle to get out of 30's,Joe Bastradi nailed cold even if it doesn't snow,this shall be interesting how the week plays out,KARE11 already taking the conservative road

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  12. 18z GFS in excess of 15 inches!!!!
    Yeah right.
    This is going to add to the ever increasing list of GFS-busts for this year.

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  13. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 11, 2011 at 10:04 PM

    Up to 8 votes for over 4 inches of snow on poll. We will see. GFS is holding some run to run consistency.

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  14. I have no Idea what will happen at the end of the week for any specific location but it does look like the chances of heavy snow somewhere in the Upper Mississippi Valley are increasing with each model run. But I will say this, better us getting heavy snows than northern Iowa, that would only add more misery to those that were impacted by the severe weather events of this past weekend.

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  15. True that randyinchamplin,Iowa could use a break,anyone getting abit nervous with these numbers that are getting printed out still,15" at MSP is insane,I know the GFS has been unreliable the latter half of the winter season,but we are within 3 days of the event and they have been pretty consistent the last few runs?thoughts?

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  16. So the latest EC came in way south,looks like Iowa and illionis,Wisconsin get the April snow fun,as usual the storm heads south again,the snowfall record would be easily had if it weren't for the storms that looks good for heavy snow days out then trends south,I guess this is why DD has been ho-hum the last 24hrs on the storm and as well as the rest of you guys not commenting much,if it going to be cold enough for snow then it might as well snow,if not let's get spring going!

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  17. The 12z NAM would still suggest a rain/snow to all snow event.
    US models trending somewhat warmer in latest runs.
    So, if it's becoming a mostly rain event then let it go south as the EC is predicting. Either snow, or dry.

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  18. Storm will move slow and will entrain way too much warm air for a Major Winter Storm in so. MN. However, much different story in NE & SD. Easily a foot or more in portions of those 2 states.

    We should have some snow on the ground by Saturday AM. Just not much.

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  19. 12z GFS also trending south, although still kind of bringing some sort of snow to the area, especially into Saturday as well...
    uhm... I have got a feeling that once again this will be a big disappointment for snow lovers. My total snow prediction for MSP out of this: 0.2 inches.

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  20. obviously temps well below normal, probably windy, newsworth in itself, even if it doesn't snow. I have a 5k race on friday, not looking like much fun.

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  21. The 00z models are moving the low to the south and keeping the snows away from the Cities and southern Minnesota. Maybe around a half-inch of precip out of this looking at QPFs. Maybe some wet flakes, but not expecting any significant snows from this.

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  22. Good old Minnesota! I love it in winter, because I love snow and stuff...You know some kind of holiday emotion all the time there!

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