Monday, April 18, 2011

Most (But Not All) Forecasters See Repeat of Friday Night for Tuesday Night Storm

Most forecasters saw a repeat of Friday night's storm. The National Weather Service and the Strib appear to be outliers as of Monday evening.  Check out our spreadsheet to see the progressive forecasts leading up to Tuesday evening.

Here are a few select scans that tell some of the story:
These two tweets seem to be going different ways.

Though we haven't tracked The Weather Channel, here is a screen capture from this evening.
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  1. Going back to the disscusion on the previous post comment page, I don't think I've ever seen the National Weather Service issue a watch, "Downgrade" to an advisory and than "Upgrade" to a Warning again. With the latest models pushing back again towards large amounts, what will it take for them to upgrade? Maybe not for the metro but for places like Red Wing, Albert Lea and Eau Claire?

  2. They did it during a storm earlier this year when my own county went from a watch to an advisory, only to be upgraded to a warning once the snow hit with full-fury. I've seen it happen several times, most-often in a way that widens a warning that was already in place, and usually not until the weather is so bad that everybody has already determined that the storm is warning-caliber. As far as this storm goes, the NWS has put the warning out and it's far into south-central WI, far enough away that it makes me think they're expecting this storm to go further SE than even the midday models suggested.

  3. PD just brought his estimate back down to 2-4 in the immediate metro. The prior run to this one must have been an anomaly.

  4. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 18, 2011 at 10:26 PM

    A bust. Everyone, except Novak, is locked into trace to four at the high end. What do you think Novak? You have consistently said lots of snow here.

  5. I believe that the MSP metro will be the dividing line between who gets snow and who does not. I could see Maple Grove/Anoka/Forest Lake barely getting an inch or two while Farmington/Hastings/Red Wing receive 6+".

    I'm shocked that the NWS already downgraded southeast MN to an advisory. Everything appears to point to 6+" from about Farmington on south to the Iowa border.

    These Spring storms are a bitch because of the sharp cut-off.

    - Have a good night everyone!

  6. This storm has bust potential written all over it for the metro,either one way or another,what I mean is it could be less then an inch or greater then 8",when the NWS writes in their WWA headline,"forecasts of snow accumulation are difficult with late season continue to monitor the latest forecasts and statements from the NWS."In other words UNCERTAINITY PREVAILS,we will see what happens,but i can tell you with systems with sharp cut-offs the metro more then not gets screwed on snowfall,there have been many of times as I watched the radar and it would seem an 'bubble' developed over the metro,a.k.a dry air.Me I'm rooting for the opposite where the heavy snow sets up over the metro and mother nature dumps 13.4 inches at MSP. RECORD attained,now let spring begin.

  7. Anyway find it funny how PD is willing spring to get here,when he says things like 'spring fever on the horizon'or 'I can a see string of 60's 4/5 days in a row,and says the latest GFS model has been showing an true warm-up beyond apr.25th and circles so-so date on this 15 day chart(was on his blog 2 nights ago)but when you look at the days beyond the 60's,there are highs anywhere from 37-49 degrees,now I know 15 day forecasts dont pan out exactly and its only an 'trend',but I find it funny that he doesnt mention anything about the cold air beyond the warm up which anyone who is looking at the chart can see.Just as a side note if we do get those highs 37-49 for late April and early May that is some damn cold air for that time of year.

  8. SE MN has been "upgraded" from its "downgrade" and is now included in the WS Warning.

  9. My posts keep disappearing! Re: upgrade/downgrade. Go to (NWS instruction manuals) and read 10-513 Section 5.4

    "Winter storm watches are either upgraded into warnings or advisories, or cancelled."

  10. Hey big daddy I see your bubble on the radar,it's like were in a snow globe with out any snow falling,MPR also alluded at 8:45am update that it appears storm is moving off to the south and may not effect metro at all

  11. Yes, as I said in my comment yesterday this is going to be a bust like many times this year.
    I expect the NWS to cancel the Winter Weather Advisory for the immediate metro area by the time their afternoon discussion is issued usually around 3.30pm.
    12z NAM came in with 1 inch. No need for an advisory.
    Another classic 'busted' forecast.