Wednesday, November 16, 2011

At Last, Something to Talk About

As of Wednesday evening, there remains great uncertainty about what will actually happen on Saturday. Weather.com reflects "up to 6 inches of snow" whereas some of the local outlets are thinking it will be more wet than white. And is this really much of a storm at all or is it just that Minnesota weather enthusiasts are starving for something to talk about?

27 comments:

  1. As of now, upper air structure looks favorable during the day on Saturday, but quickly collapses during the evening/overnight hours. This tells me that this will be a quick hitting storm that will have a narrow window of time for snow accumulation. However, the vertical temp. profile favors mostly, if not all snow.

    Gut feeling is that this will be a small storm that packs a punch for a few hours. In turn, a good chunk of MN will likely receive accumulating snow, just not a ton of it. I like the idea of painting a broad 1" to 4" swath of snow across much of MN, including MSP metro.

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  2. Weather.com has gone from "potential for 6" to "potential for 3" to "snow shower" for Saturday. Meanwhile, SD is in a WSW. Another near-miss much ado about nothing?

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  3. Weather.com has posted a degree lower for their high... The model runs continue to lower the system... I think that it is just a mis-prediction.

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  4. Accuweather postd 3-6 inches

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  5. Kare 11 is still very doubtful about us getting much of anything at all, exception to the NW suburbs. Most outlets seem to think 2-3 inches is a safe bet.

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  6. AB, I didn't catch much of the news shows, but here's what KSTP has on its website: Snowfall accumulations near the Twin Cities will range from 1 to 2 inches in most of the Metro with lighter amounts on the southeast side ( Cottage Grove, Hastings areas ) and heavier amounts with over 3 inches possible on the northwest side ( Rogers, Anoka, Andover areas ).

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  7. recent moedel trends shifted the storm a little further south...

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  8. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 17, 2011 at 9:45 PM

    This will be a small storm. Little moisture to work with. Open low. Still......the first storm of the year is fun. Does anyone get frustrated with Ian Leonard? He brags about himself all the time. He just said that this won't be a whopper storm and noted that some have not been saying that but he has all along. Whatever. He has always said we would get nothing and now he is saying 1-2 inches. Funny, he was wrong the other way!

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  9. @Plymouth I agree with you!

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  10. I've been trending more conservative with the snow amounts across Minnesota in the 1 to 3" inch snow range, generally. The amount of liquid the low has to work with is not all that impressive, and it will be a quick hit with drier air pushing in from the west on Sunday.

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  11. I'm not convinced we're going to get much accumulation at all anymore. After looking at the sites, particularly NWS, and models, it appears they're all moving the real accumulations north/west a bit. I'm also still focused on the fact that we're in a severe drought. Our air is ridiculously dry right now and it's going to eat away at some of the precip. A slushy inch? Sure. More? We'll see...

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  12. Because of the dry air and the fact that there is no moisture at or near the surface (drought), coupled with the speed of this system I think the first 1/2 to 1" that the models are trying to lay down for the metro may not reach the ground. Therefore I am going with the 18/09z SREF that shows only a 30-35% chance of 1" accumulations for the NW metro, and almost none for the SE Metro. The only accumulations may be on the grassy area's, so it looks more and more likely that the official total out of this system at MSP will be a Trace to .20" Another near miss for the metro. While I don't think it could happen, a nasty thought has started to creep into my head......a brown Christmas???????????

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  13. well, historically 1 out of 4 Christmases are brown for the Twin Cities. The last one was in 2006 so it would be not surprising at all (and climatologically correct) if we had a broewn Xmas this year.
    I am also starting to think that this winter may not be as snowy as some forecasters have predicted. Would not be suprised if we get less than 30" all winter, the way things are going.

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  14. This system simply does not look impressive from top to bottom. Little opportunity to gather Gulf moisture while the mid and upper level jets force dry air into the atmosphere tomorrow evening. I just can't see anybody in MN receiving much more than 3" to 4" inches of snow and that will be in a narrow band.

    Meanwhile, any snow that does fall in MN from this storm will definitely melt by late next week as an unseasonably warm air mass moves into the region during Thanksgiving. Plus, there appears to be no chance of a major snowstorm for the next 10 to 14 days. In other words, we are nearly guaranteed to be BROWN thru at least the 1st week of December.

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  15. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 18, 2011 at 12:54 PM

    I don't think we can say on November 18 that we could get less than 30" simply because of the "way things are going." Maybe come mid-January or something we can start talking like that. Snow lovers, like me, need to relax. When the snow machine gets turned on, it will turn on. This storm is not that big, in the first place. The last storm was really not that big, either. One misses us to the east and south and this one misses us the west and north. No one should draw conclusions on that.

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  16. Agreed.
    I think most people get swayed and biased by the legendary "minnesotan winters" not realizing that usually that applies to Northern Minnesota.
    Relative to its average climate, the Twin Cities are NOT a very snowy place, due to their unfortunate location.
    Too much south to get nailed by the northern stream kind of clipper storms that hit the Northern parts of the state, and too much north for the moisture-laden southern streams type storms that pummel Des Moines, Chicago, Madison etc.
    And no big lakes close enough for lake-effect enhanced snowfall rates.

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  17. according to MPX a winter weather advisory could be issued for parts of Serburne county very close to Elk River...Hmmm that close?

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  18. Advisories are out for Wright/Sherburne and north/west, with warnings along the MN/SD border. The forecast is still evolving. They seem to be more confident about precipitation, but less confident about how much will be snow in the metro.

    My biggest concern for winter so far is the drought. ANY moisture we can get into the southern 1/2 of the state right now is a bonus because nothing significant is going to fall until our air is saturated by little systems like this non-storm.

    Climatologists have expected the bulk of our winter precipitation (and La Nina's impact) to be in Jan-Mar as opposed to Nov/Dec, so the slow start doesn't surprise me and shouldn't rile up concerns for a snow-free winter. We are overdue for a brown Christmas though, especially after the heavy snows of the past two Decembers. That's a bummer, as for most Minnesotans, that's when they want the snow.

    Bottom line...we've got to break the drought, somehow. Little systems like this are a start.

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  19. I just wish we'd get some much needed rain!!

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  20. Ok, so this is WAY out there and it is accuweather, the most innacurate weather site, but it thinks that there will be a two day snowstorm at the end of the month...

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  21. It also thought there would be a two-day snowstorm on November 15th and 16th two weeks out.

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  22. Here is a collage of forcasts for saturday.

    accuweather 2-5 in
    weather.com 1-3 in
    weather.gov .5-2in
    WCCO 2in
    KSTP 1-2in
    KMSP up to an inch
    KARE 1-2 in
    intellicast.com 2-3in
    IMAP Trace-2in

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  23. Great summary @bemaki! Are you using an urban core zip code for the online forecasts?

    As for AccuWeather, two things: 1) Forecast Advisor, which analyses a lot of the national weather feeds, consistently shows that AccuWeather is at the bottom (see also: http://forecastadvisor.com/Minnesota/SaintPaul/55116/). It's not just speculation that they're all about PR and not so much performance; it's factually true. 2) Some people suggest that what one puts in their name is the quality they often lack the most... maybe they should be renamed InaccuWeather.

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  24. @bemaki....link to accuweather article or vid of the two day snow fall or is it password protected?

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  25. http://www.accuweather.com/us/mn/stillwater/55082/forecast-details.asp?fday=13

    http://www.accuweather.com/us/mn/stillwater/55082/forecast-details.asp?fday=14

    Here are there wacky predictions... remember what I said... I totally agree that they are not the best...

    Anything you can get on accuweather for signing up you can get for free on the ever improving wunderground.com

    I also forgot about thier forcasst...

    wunderground up to 2in

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  26. I use zip code 55082 and 55115 for reporting.

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  27. Never believe what accuweather has to say,with there long range forecast for us they actually have a 3 day storm nov.30 and dec 1,2 with the wording "snow much of the time" for 3 days,with 5 inches of snowfall,when was the last time it snowed up to 3 days and we got 5 inches,come on give me a break why do they even have a snowfall prediction 12 days out,come on its ridiculous,look at it tommorrow and it will be sunny and 37-42,as for tomorrows storm it looks lame for metro but ill take anything at this point,and snowlovers keep the faith its way too early to get disgruntled even though it looks bleak right now

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