Friday, November 4, 2011

Snow Possiblities for Next Week?

The local weather Twittersphere has been filled with talk about a possible snowstorm for the middle of next week. As of this writing, most forecasters seem to think it will pass southeast of the Twin Cities. What do you think/hope will happen?

67 comments:

  1. This is one to watch,could very well be our first snowfall of the year,which would be 10 earlier then last year when we got our first storm,euro track looking very favorable and NWS in their discussion are leaning that way,they have snow mentioned in the grids from monday to wednesday with temps coming down with each run,now looks like no better then 40 on tuesday,time to oil up the snowblower.

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  2. *crickets*

    I'm a fan, not an expert, so I'm curious what our blog "experts" are thinking!!! It looks like the Euro is staying somewhat steady...maybe moving the storm a little east. Some forecasters are starting to nibble at this thing, others are completely ignoring it. What's the right move???

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  3. I personally think this will be a mainly rain event, with potential for a change over to snow Wednesday morning. The GFS has been all over the place with the track...taking it furthest east. The Euro is a bit wobbly too, only further west. The Canadian I would say is middle ground. The item of interest will be the ridge out east and how far east the ridge moves by the time this system forms. We should get some much needed rain from this system if the European and Canadian comes through. If the GFS does, it will be a close call, but a miss. Still lots of uncertainty. If this system can get more cold air into it, then perhaps someone in MN could see a bit of snow. With as boring as it's been the past month or two, it is nice seeing something show up on the maps.

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  4. couldnt agree more Duane,its been horribly boring and us weather geeks need to jump on something,thats why tuesday-wednesday system looks interesting,of course the models will do their usual flip-flopping,but by Sunday evening we should have a clear picture of what will happen I'm hoping,but either way looking at the models some areas in eastern or southern mn or western/central wisconsin will have a cold rain turn into a heavy wet snow event by tuesday night,with a place or two picking up a quick 6" inches of snow,lets see what happens,Im curious what does randyinchamplain or novak think(havent heard from novak for awhile)

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  5. Big Daddy:

    I think the Euro solution may be the right solution based on tonight's runs. When looking at the GEM and GFS I noticed that this strong system coming in from down south was doing something strange. There is a big low pressure area off the se US coast, that will not let the high break down over the se US thus causing this system to move north. Yet on the other hand the northern extent of the surface high doesn't have a real strong block to it's east. That leaves MN and WI in a area of weakness (no real strong low or high effecting us. But the GFS and the GEM both try to move the system to the east and try to break down the surface high over say western OH. However the Euro takes advantage of the weakness and move this system further west into a area of least resistance. Hope that makes sense, I did this quick without much thought put into the wording. But your right time will tell.

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  6. For what is it is worth, here's my early take on the storm:

    http://www.stormchaserschwartz.com/2011/11/thoughts-on-next-weeks-storm-system.html

    @ShakopeeWeather

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  7. Getting more and more excited with every model run coming in. Here's a few that have come out today from the GFS that have up to 6 inches near me in Red Wing.

    http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

    http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_120HR.gif

    I presume the local stations will start picking up on it even more, suprised they've been so quiiet.

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  8. All those models tell me is that this thing has to move west or I'm going to miss out here in Carver County. I might have to drive to see the flakes. Hmm...winter feel without the stress of shoveling and scraping...maybe a short drive wouldn't be so bad.

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  9. GFS looks more east with the last run. NAM is pretty weak and probably too far SE.

    Euro remains the most interesting for us by far though.

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  10. NWS guessing a narrow band of 3-5 inches somewhere in their forcast discussion this morning

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  11. Day three outlook is no out from the HPC, looks a though at this time they are leaning to the EURO,GEM and JMA solutions.

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

    However their written discussion does not reveal a great deal of confidence, mainly because of the GFS. Hear is link for that.

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

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  12. Interesting. That's the furthest west I've seen anybody talk. Of the few discussions so far, most were focusing on the SE metro and western WI.

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  13. Still quite the spread for 3 days out. Tough call for a forecaster. We're getting close enough where you want to start talking totals but its a situation where the metro could get between nothing and six inches.

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  14. NWS has moved its snow potential area about 50-75 miles to the east, putting more in line with what other forecasters are saying. This keeps Mpls and the west metro out of the chance for accumulating snow.

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

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  15. The Euro has now made the shift eastward. It's now got it tracking closer to Milwaukee.

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  16. Yep. Latest from NWS Twin Cities on Facebook:
    "Another low pressure system will approach the local area from the central plains on Tuesday. Latest forecast guidance suggest that this system may stay a little farther to the south with an accumulating snow potential existing for southeast Minnesota into central Wisconsin Tuesday into Tuesday night."

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  17. Anybody bold enough to start guessing amounts? I'll take a stab at it, nothing to lose.

    MSP Airport: Half Inch
    Red Wing: (Guessing because I live there) 2 inches
    Rochester: 3 inches
    Winona: 3 inches

    Would like to see more than that but I think that's asking for a lot as it is.

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  18. I'm guessing that MSP gets a trace at best. And besides that, I think accumulations will be hard to come by given the relative warmth. Course that brings up another question: Do locations measure the amount of snow that falls or the amount that accumulates (given the likelihood that the first of the snow will likely melt on contact).

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  19. Don't they measure it both ways? As liquid "what's fallen" and snow "what's stuck"???

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  20. I think the Twin Cities will miss out on any measurable snow, but I do think snow will fall around Rochester to La Crosse, WI with 2 to 5 inches possible. There will be good moisture levels all the way down to the surface with no dry slot areas to cut snow potential per BUFKIT.

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  21. Bill & AB: Here is a link to CoCoRaHS, it explains the proper way to measures snow.

    http://www.cocorahs.org/Media/Training/Training_Snow.html

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  22. Well well well it looks like the GFS has finally started to get its act together and bumped its track west, more in line with the European model. I agree with what Ryan said, accumulations and location. Far SE MN and western WI look to be in the target area for this first potential snow. There are still a few model runs left before this happens, so it could shift east or west yet, but signs are pointing towards the SE MN/WI solution. There looks to be a pretty tight gradient in who sees snow and who doesn't. One area could get 2-3 inches of slush, while 10 miles down the road they may not see a single flake. We're lucky that this system doesn't have more cold air to work with, and that the ground is still warm, or we may be looking more at warning criteria snows. At this point, I'd say an advisory would be needed for the potential accumulations, the timing of it (morning rush hour), and the fact that it is the first snow of the season and people seem to forget how to drive in snow.

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  23. NWS has us in the 1 to 2 inch bracket at this time. This is shaping up to be the first snowfall.

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  24. @bemaki, What zipcode are you providing for the NWS 1-2 inch forecast?

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  25. My thoughts, first for the metro using the Euro forecast, flakes are possible in the far south to southeast metro, falling snow could be 1-1.5", accumulations should be a trace to .50" with zero accumulation at the airport.

    For SE MN including the towns south and east of Rochester but excluding Rochester itself, I have used a blend of the Nam and the Euro for they seem to be close as to where the heavier snow will be, It's weighted 70/30 favoring the euro for location and 50/50 for snow amounts. By 12am Wednesday there is some strong indications that convection will be ongoing In far southern WI while at the same time in SE MN there will strong positive vorticity at 500mb with equally strong vertical velocities from 925mb through 700mn. Snow fall should start in earnest around 12am Wednesday morning with snow fall amounts of 1-2" per 3hr period. By 3am the rate should pick up 2-3" per 3 hour period with snow tapering off by 9am. Total snow falling will be between 6-9" with the first 2" melting, total accumulations between 4-6". If on the outside chance that a localized pocket could see thunder snow, than slightly heavier amounts could be seen. Winds will ramp up to around 20 knots with gust to 30-35. Visibilities could be difficult along I-90 in the predawn hours.

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  26. With tHis being so close to the metro any chance the metro gets snow,this storm has wobbled east and west for five days who's to say the models go abit west overnight,Dahl leaves that possibility open in his blog and I'm always in the school of thought when storms are this close to one location,in this instance the metro,never rule out a swing of fifty to a hundred miles on a track of the storm,I believe the metro sees snow just a question of how much which I don't have an answer for at this time,would like to see the next two models runs

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  27. I don't expect anything other than maybe a little drizzle in Carver County. There's no reason to think it's going to waiver enough to give me anything more than that. I just hope I have snow by the end of the month. It makes decorating and shopping for Christmas much more enjoyable.

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  28. The zip code that I provide for is 55082.

    The storm here appears to have a very sharp gradiant. The models appear to cosistantly shove it a bit westward.

    A little bit mere and it might mean a 6 inch snow for the south and east metro.

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  29. Watching as the 00Z NAM model is being printed out, I dont like what I see. It's halfway done through 27Z, but it looks like it's bringing the low farther east. Hope it comes out differently, I'm looking forward to (hopefully!) 6 inches down here in Red Wing.

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  30. Spoke to soon it looks like, no big shift to the east as far as I can tell. Patience will serve me better next time.

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  31. snow lover in the metroNovember 8, 2011 at 1:50 AM

    you know whats so fascinating about weather,that a city named hudson,wi can be under a winter storm watch for 6+" of snow and a city named minneapolis,mn has a 50% of a snow/rain mix,and they are a mere 24 miles apart on a map,just blows my mind that forecasts can be that accurate or will ther be a weather bust tommorrow

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  32. Snow chances fading rapidly with 12 NAM...this better not be a Winter trend

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  33. I'm thinking non-issue for us in the metro area. Although I can't wait to see the drama played out on the local weather forecasts tonight. NOT. :)

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  34. Big dive to the se for all the models watch may be lifted very soon for Mn

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  35. Minnesota BUST. No doubt about it. Oh well, another week or two (or three?) without shovels and road salt won't be so bad!

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  36. Snow lover in the metroNovember 8, 2011 at 6:00 PM

    Just as I suspected a weather bust,there is no way to be that precise with a weather forecast with the cities I gave u earlier(Hudson to Minneapolis)weather forecasting is a tough beast and u cannot count out any scenario when looking at models and jumping on one solution.
    Bill question for u the "p hammer" from earlier is that Patrick hammer from kstp5,if so how cool to have a local met on your blog page

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  37. I wonder whether this winter will start later and may linger well into April?
    More snow in April than in November?

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  38. OH, THE IRONY...

    If GFS prediction becomes true, we will become a tiny island of no snow in a little while...

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  39. Only 1/4 of the time do we have our first significant (1+") snow cover before November 15, but for the last three years in a row, we have: mid-Oct 2008 (most places), Nov 12 2009, Nov 13 2010. Law of averages would say we're overdue to have a later start to Winter (on ave snow cover begins around TG).

    On the flip side, about 1/4 of our Christmases are "brown," and we haven't officially had one of those since, I believe, 2005 or 2006 (though many parts of the metro had a little snow). Other than our drought, there's no reason to think this is the year, but it's worth mentioning, especially noting our lack of precipitation over the past 2 1/2 months.

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  40. *Or was it 2007 that we had our last brown Christmas? I may be off by a year!

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  41. I hate being teased by the models (the weather version) like this!

    There's a pretty good chance the Twin Cities could be snow-free through November. The weather can best be described in 2011 as "odd".

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  42. According to Paul Douglas, the latest we've had snow since 1948 was November 21. Unless something drastically changes, this will be the year we break that. The reality is that WE ARE IN A DROUGHT (one significant rain in the past 2+ months). That trend won't necessarily change simply because it's winter.

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  43. I guess PD is referring to at least a trace. I took a look at my historical data and I found that as recently as the 2004-2005 winter, MSP did not get its first inch of snow until January 21st 2005.
    That winter only ended up with 25.5 inches!!!

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  44. The NWS posted a video on Facebook yesterday, explaining the east shift in the track, and the reasoning behind it. It's a good video with a good explination. Although we didn't see the snow, this system was forecast correctly, given the model data that was out there. It really did look like models locked in on a solution, giving SE MN and Western WI a good amount of snow. It just goes to show how much things can change in a short time. Weather service was also good with issuing the watch. It was placed in the correct area, again, given the model data that was there. Plus, a watch is just a heads up saying that things may happen. I really hopoe the models don't do this for the rest of winter though, or it will be a long winter of forecasting.

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  45. PD was using an inch, I believe, as the measurement. I'm not saying his data was right, but it is what he said.

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  46. @ Duane, couldn't agree more, very nicely said.

    @AB, On Monday night's blog I remember seeing something from Paul Douglas that his eyes were wide open for se MN

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  47. Flurries and light snow showers are working their way down highway 10 from northwestern MN. Future radar shows it falling apart some, but moving into the metro in the early morning hours. We'll see if it holds up, but if you're determined to see the first flakes of the year, set your alarms for 4 a.m., people!!!

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  48. Thanks AB. Good thing we live in a place where, presumably, we'll have more opportunity to spot a flake or two!

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  49. First flurries in Red Wing

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  50. Wintery mix is falling in Carver county. It's not rain, nor snow, nor sleet...somewhere between all three.

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  51. well you can all rest easy now,we got our first trace of snow for the season,been snowing for an hour here in eden praire(flurries,snow shower)nothing major be we can say we finally saw our first flakes

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  52. Chicago to South Bend has been getting lake effect snow showers all day. Until this moment, I was okay with our slow start to winter. Now I'm jealous...and nervous (because of how dry it's been since late August). Is this going to be one of those depressing cold, snowless winters??? More concerning, is it the beginning of a prolonged drought?

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  53. NovakWeather on FACEBOOK & TwitterNovember 10, 2011 at 4:26 PM

    Honestly, I have not been this frustrated in quite some time. The current drought in MN is perplexing. Iowa and Wisconsin gets hammered and the western Dakotas get hammered. We seem to be in a shell and/or island all on our own.

    This pattern needs to break, doesn't it?

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  54. @Novak, if you asked Texas, they'd say no, it doesn't need to break.

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  55. From PD's Wednesday blog:

    Winter may be tardy, but does this mean an easy winter is inevitable? That's a leap of logic I'm not yet prepared to make. I've gone on record saying the drought will linger into the winter. My hunch: a dry rut into at least the first half of winter. That should translate into less snow through December.

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  56. YES Novak the pattern needs to break,this is boring stuff,would be nice to get some snow we are about due doesn't everyone think so,well if you want to hang your hat on something accuweather has a rain changing to snow event around Nov. 20/21,dropping temps from the 40's to the 20's,but that is 10 days out and accuweather is hardly accurate and I'm sure when I look at it tommorrow it will change and be sunny and 50.

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  57. Such boring weather right now, looking for ANYTHING that could change that. Next Sunday bears watching I think, that looks like it could turn into something

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  58. Snow?! I don’t care what the forecasters say…don’t even put that thought out there! My HOPE—no measurable snowfall until after Thanksgiving. (We prefer our after Thanksgiving dinner “dog walk” WITHOUT snow.) We’ll see who wins—positive thinkers or forcasters… ;-)

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  59. Bill: Update on our local met's snowfall predictions, plus those of us amateurs who dared to put out a prediction. In addition I also included one private forecast company who bills itself as a national weather station, but who in reality shows a heavy bias towards the east coast, can any one guess who?

    The pro's:
    Dave Dahl 75"
    Paul Huttner 50-60"
    Paul Douglas 50-55"
    Ian Leonard 60-70" (at least I think that is what he said during his winter special, although he didn't say I am forecasting that much he strongly hinted at it)
    ACCU 56"

    The am's

    Bill 43.1"
    Rigil 61"
    Randyinchamplin 71"

    Did I miss anyone? and has anyone heard if the Weather Channel has put one out?

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  60. @Marcoux MN..

    The trends according to the models at this time show no problem with you getting your dinner "dog walk in". As a matter of fact it could be quite warm, but that is just a trend. Aloft they are showing us under a ridge, at the surface they are showing us under the influence of High pressure area, but the source region for that is either from the nw pacific or sw US, not Canada...I sure hope that holds out, btw that is not a forecast, to early to tell if that will verify.

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  61. Good info, Randy. I heard the same thing from Ian. He also predicted that Dec and Feb would be 5-7 degrees colder than normal with Feb. 3-5 degrees colder than normal.

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  62. Something brewing for next weekend,maybe a storm we can actually latch onto,seems like initially can be a rain to snow situation,let's see if we can some interesting weather to discuss!what does it look like to you randyinchamplin

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  63. I'll believe it when I see it.

    There's plenty of time before we need to worry about a brown Christmas, but my frustration stems from the fact that we've been dry all but a hand full of days since mid-August. That doesn't bode well for wet conditions to develop during the driest months of our calendar year.

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  64. From a current STRIB article on the drought...

    "Weather watchers generally are describing the current drought as a short-lived, typical variation, likely to be overpowered soon by larger atmospheric forces that are setting the table for a colder- and wetter-than-normal winter. The short-term forecast for the Twin Cities calls for sunny weather through this week, but the national Climate Prediction Center is indicating strong chances of above-normal precipitation across Minnesota between now and Thanksgiving."

    Don't current forecasts go through TG? How can those forecasts be dry and the climate prediction center say precip is going to be above normal? Is the CPC forecast old? This simply doesn't make sense to me.

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  65. As this feed wraps up, there is yet another system of interest on the horizon that could very well end up being discussed. System is for this coming Saturday night, with the European model further east than the GFS. Both do show a good chance at some accumulating snow across parts of western, NW, central, and NC MN, however given the models fairly poor job at handling the last system, I wouldn't get our hopes up yet. At this point, the Euro is the more favorable one to put down a good chunk of snow in a larger portion of MN. We'll see how this system does end up playing out, but with the last system trending east in time, this one trending east would just put more areas of MN in the cold sector.

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  66. Bill time for a new heading,White Thanksgiving Possible for some!,might be a good headline for ur post,looking at the overnight models if the euro pans out we could get our first snowfall in the metro,then again everything could go east like last storm,time will tell

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  67. Just added a new post to discuss weather for the coming weekend, Thanksgiving and beyond.

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