Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Is Interesting Weather on the Way?

Forecasters are finding the weather pattern to become more active. Use this space to talk amongst yaselves!

75 comments:

  1. New NAM very "interesting" with gulf open. Surface low rather weak but nice jet position Saturday AM

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  2. However the out hours on the NAM have been notoriously off this season

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  3. The possible cold spell is also something to watch. Going to be December. The lakes need some ice.

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  4. There appears now to be only minor differences between the models- There is a good chance of getting in on the white stuff, but how much?

    I would say that the NWS has a good chance of a WSW on thursday afternoon.

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  5. here is a good place to monitor the devlopment of the storm.

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/

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  6. Early Paul Douglas guess in southeast of the Metro

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  7. Anonymous @6:06,that was not PD on his blog today,that was his sidekick Todd Nelson,PD all along has called for no big storms till at least mid-december,so let's see how he spins this tonight around midnight or will it be Todd again

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  8. Well, another set of models...and still really no questions answered. The 00z NAM continues to be furthest west...GEM furthest east, with the GFS and Euro somewhere in the middle. This reminds me of our first system of the season that ended up hitting central and eastern WI. For now though, it looks like far SE MN, western, and central WI may end up getting the brunt of this system. Again, nothing is set in stone and the system just coming into the US data network...so keep an eye on the next set of model runs to see if and how things adjust. I'm starting to become concerned this will be yet another near miss for the area, as has been the story so far this season. Stay tuned!

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  9. It appears that the main show will stay south of the metro again,I can hear all the disappointed snow lovers already,but with a storm tracking this close you dont know what will happen changes can occur quickly,but I can see it now everyone watching the radar on Saturday and yearning for that heavier snow band to push up into the metro but instead it curves east giving places like albert lea,red wing,winoa,rochester,lacrosse,eau claire a winter wonderland and those of us in the metro stay cold with a shot at seeing flurries.

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  10. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 1, 2011 at 9:12 AM

    I agree with the south comments, but I think there are too many dynamics in place to say this with any high degree of certainty. I think what makes it more problematic is the potential sharp cutoff of the snow as you head north and west. The cold, dry air poised there will make it hard for snow to develop with much intensity, unless the whole storm shifts.

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  11. I haven't given up hope yet. This morning runs will help, but given that the northern system (that will pick a piece of the cut off low over the SW US) won't be fully over land until later today, this evening runs will help a great deal. Once completely over land the models will have a better idea how it will interact with the upper level ridge and surface high pressure that will set up west of us. If it can hold off the surface high for just 6 hrs it will have a impact on whether the low can cut up just a tad further to the west.

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  12. I'm with you Randy,I'm in the school of thought anytime your close to snow event in regards to location anything possible,that's why we keep the faith and like anonymous said earlier we watch and pray that the heavier bands move further north then forecasted,jury is still out,but I'm sure winter storm watches wil be hoisted this afternoon for places in MN/WI,question is where? I've heard amounts from two sources so for: Mike lynch weather guy at wcco radio said 2-4 and NWS hinted at 2-4 in their discussion,also DD on his morning radio spot 94.5 said "several inches possible" from metro to Iowa border

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  13. Well I understand snow lover's reluctance to give up faith, but we need to be realistic here.
    12z GFS completely dry, and 12z NAM looking much less impressive than yesterday in terms of pwat.
    So, unfortunately, barring a miracle, this is going to be another miss for MSP.
    An inch at best.

    @Bill: I would emphasize a bit better the complete bust of DD's 12 inch prediction for November's snowfall. I bet next year he will go back to just issue the winter total :) :)

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  14. @Anonymous 11:09....My forecast for Nov was around 9" so I busted as well in the strictest sense...but If you remember there was a heavy snow event within 60 miles of the north metro....all in all not bad for a forecast put out that far in advance.

    http://lh6.ggpht.com/-JZzVISesO1M/TssXpKguI6I/AAAAAAAABPE/m1BoYdisAeE/s1600-h/snowfall11192011%25255B4%25255D.png

    Graphic courtesy of Ryan Schwartz

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  15. My totally unscientific guess for November was 4.1 inches. Not too far off. :-)

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  16. @randychamplin.
    you indirectly bring up a very good point.
    The "official" snowfall taken at MSP can sometimes be misleading.
    I never understood why the NWS does not measure snowfall around the stations across the metro area, average it, and make that the official snowfall.

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  17. ok new Euro is in. Still a very complicated forecast.

    The GFS and Gem are very similar..The northern system will phase with the sw cut off low and a area of surface low pressure will form near the panhandle of TX. The euro shows this as well.

    While that phasing starts to happen a strong area of high pressure will drop in from the NW Pacific and work into the western US along the western slope of the Rockies. As it moves SE it will spread to the eastern slope of the Rockies. The northern extent will set up over the international border while the NW part of the ridge sets up through the central Dakotas. All 3 models show this.

    Here is where things get complicated. As the northern system lifts NE to make room for the storm, a second weaker system trails it very closely over the northern Rockies and tries to enter the US at the ND/ Montana border. Both the GFS and Gem suppress the northern edge of the high pressure which pops up the northwestern edge of it into MN nw and west of the metro, forcing the storm to drop SE. However the Euro does not do that, allowing the nw metro to get a couple of inches and the se metro getting 4-6.

    You could call the Euro a outlier at this time and technically you would be right. However I have learned never to toss it under the bus, every time I do it comes back to haunt me. I expect either the 18z or the 0z run of the GFS to pick up on that. It will come down to the Nam/Euro vs GFS/GEM...Might I add this is fascinating to watch as it unfolds.

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  18. @Bill nice!!!

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  19. Is there anyone here like me who DOES NOT WANT SNOW?

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  20. I'm a snow-lover but hate the ultra cold. But I do think some on here like the ultra cold.

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  21. I am one of those. Love the snow and the ultra cold.
    As a matter of fact I went to Anctarctica a few years ago.

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  22. 18z Nam model

    http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

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  23. @randyinchamplin

    Which link on his page are you clicking to get to that image?

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  24. These models always over-predict the width of the snow swath. If this path holds, I don't anticipate Hennepin/Carver getting more than flurries, if that. Of course, if someone so much as hiccups, the whole thing could shift NW 30-50 miles and put most of the metro in the 4-8 inch range.

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  25. Anon at 4:24 I used this link for that purpose. each period will update as it comes in.

    ETA is the old name for the NAM.

    http://wintercast.tripod.com/id14.html

    on earls site the nam totals are on line 15 for the 12 and 0z runs, and line 16 for the 18 and 6z runs, use the snow fall link not the 10:1 ratio link, the snow fall link takes into account the proper liquid water to snowfall ratio.

    The GFS is on the following two lines

    http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm

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  26. I forgot to mention the fist link will update as soon as the data comes in for 24,48 hours etc....the other link will wait until all 84 hours of the NAM have been updated, or in the case of the GFS until all 120 hours are in.

    Hope that helps

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  27. Good sign in Kansas: They are issuing Winter weather advisories on the southeast side of the WSWs there. This signifies that the storm is going on a furter west track then expected.

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  28. Interesting, bemaki...

    At the same time, weather.com has eliminated snow from their Saturday forecast in my area (Carver county).

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  29. Smile and wave boys,smile and wave(famous words used by a penguin in a kids movie)at your snowstorm not coming here!

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  30. I took a look for White Bear Lake. Thy claim "No significant accumulations". Basically, they think that there will only be a trace of snow here. For Red wing, they are saying "A slushy accumalain of less than one inch", where some of the models place the core of the storm. For Rochester, they place 1-2 inches of the fluffy stuff, where the GFS centers the heavy snow bands. For Albert Lea, they are thinking less than one inch as well.

    I think that they are going with the GFS and think it will not be a big deal.

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  31. @Bemaki...to your point of them using the gfs....I pulled this from the Lacrosse NWS WFO (weather forecast office) I would suggest if your living along the Red Wing to Rochester line that you read the Area Forecast Discussion from Lacrosse.

    " AT THIS
    TIME IS APPEARS THE BAND WILL SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
    IOWA...THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
    NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IF THESE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE WITH THE
    NEXT SET OF RUNS THIS EVENING...A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
    ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
    BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT."

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  32. Smile and wave boys,smile and wave!

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  33. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 1, 2011 at 8:20 PM

    I am sure it will miss us but if you are going to post things like "smile and wave" maybe just do it once or attach your name. This site has been great for not having trolls. Please stay away.

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  34. you know the storm is not coming because Novak has been considerably quiet the last couple of days,which is unlike him if an storm was approaching,btw with all the negative crap Paul Douglas gets thrown he nailed it again(no significant snow)maybe Dave Dahl can learn a lesson or two from Paul since all that has been coming out of Dahls mouth has been snow all week(love those 12" we got in November Dave)

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  35. Ian talked about 4-6 inches yesterday and even displayed a new graphic with the arrow solidly at 4 inches. Seems he took the high road (as in the snow road) as much as any.

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  36. Wow, I guess I better speak-up now that my name has been strewn about. BTW, good stuff everyone.

    Gut feeling is that someone near or southeast of the MSP metro will receive a heavy wet snowfall that should easily exceed 6". For me, the latest 12z ECMWF sealed the deal when it showed a distinct surface low near Rockford, IL at 12z Sunday. This is a perfect location for heavy snow over southeastern MN. Plus, as all the pieces of energy have finally come ashore, the models are now beginning to hone-in on a more robust system that should be able to tap a generous amount of moisture from the Gulf.

    Of course, as many of you have mentioned, there will likely be a sharp/distinct cut-off to the snow somewhere near MSP. This is definitely a concern and is why I'm concerned for Twin Cities forecasters. If I were them, I wouldn't commit to anything until 12z model runs come in.

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  37. Well, before turning in for the night, I took a peak at the 06z models, and checked out the discussions from the NWS, and my thinking of the heaviest band setting up in far SE MN and lying NE between La Crosse and Eau Claire, WI seems to be on track. Both the NAM and GFS are holding with their thoughts from the 00z runs which really isn't too much of a surprise. The NWS in Chanhassen is holding off on a watch...for now, but La Crosse is going ahead and issuing a watch for Dodge, Fillmore, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha, and Winona County in MN and Buffalo, Clark, Jackson, Taylor, and Trempealeau County in WI till Dec 04, 6:00 AM. CST I find it a little surprising that MPX didn't put up a watch too, since usually the surrounding offices try to coordinate their watches together. However, MPX did explain why they haven't gone with a watch yet, and it's a legit thought. If we can get the final bump to the NW with the 12z model runs of the GFS and Canadian I would expect that watch to be expanded on by Friday afternoon. I do want to say this though...I find it amusing when people say how much they don't want the snow, and how much they hate it. This is something that we just expect in this climate. We get snow...this is nothing new or out of the ordinary. If people don't like it, then why even bother living in this climate? I guess it doesn't make sense. I know there are a lot of people out there counting on snow, as it is a big part of their business. Snow plow crews, ski resorts, etc need it so they can maintain a business. That is really just the beginning of a big list of reasons why we need snowfall. It was bound to snow sooner or later...those who are in the path of this one should enjoy what nature has to offer.

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  38. WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE UP!,but hold on for those of us who live in and around the metro we got nothing,does everyone know the signifance of a city called Mazeppa,MN thats the furthest north watches extend(that is a mere 60 miles to downtown minneapolis),so all together now whos rooting for a 60 mile westward wobble of the track of the storm,I know I am,listen if 2 weeks ago areas just north of st. cloud can end up with 11 inches of snow that no one saw,we can certainly see a surprise with this storm,to take a line from a earlier comment from anonymous,'just smile and wave the heavier snow bands north'. Btw,good stuff Novak,metro totals will be tough to call,I could see a trace to 4" near the metro.

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  39. Okay almost within 24hrs to start of "event",what you say will fall,well like I said earlier I'm rooting for that westward wobble so I call for 3.6 @MSP International,happy radar watching!

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  40. Tough call from MSP to the southeast. They could end up anywhere between a trace and plowable. I expect the west/NW metro to get only flurries and a stray snow shower, unless the track shifts 50-75 miles northwest (which, of course, it could). The cut-off is just going to be too sharp...too much cold air in place.

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  41. @big daddy: yeah, Mazeppa's ten miles south of me...oh goody!

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  42. Question for the knowledgeable mets: What storm conditions suggest a sharp cutoff with snow totals vs. other storm conditions that suggest more gradual gradients?

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  43. 12z Nam looks very interesting

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFCENT_12z/f42.gif

    and it's backed up by the 6z gem reg.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_06/P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

    I don't have time to post snowfall totals until later this afternoon, it looks like a white Xmas may be in the cards after all

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  44. Good question Bill. Warm overrunning events produce more muted gradients and more widspread areas of snowfall. Tight baroclinic gradients, especially tight PWAT garients allow for the sharp cut-off in snow totals. Dry air just "eats up" the snow reaching thr ground

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  45. Geez I can't spell today..."PWAT gradients"..sorry!!

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  46. Thanks for input Patrick. Last question: What does PWAT mean?

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  47. @Hammer....saw you forecast this morning complicated is right!!! Nice job you left just enough uncertainty on the table, IMO

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  48. PWAT...precipital water...or available mositure.
    I think ECMWF wins again with this storm

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  49. Randy I saw that with the 12z NAM,I concur metro may be getting more action then everyone thought looks to me the low placement has drifted abit west closer to lacrosse and we all know what that means for the metro

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  50. Tight snow gradient will exist between St.Cloud and Red Wing. STC barely receives a flake while Red Wing digs out from 6"+. Unfortunately for MSP forecasters, the metro is right in the middle of the sharp gradient.

    This is a lose, lose situation for anyone predicting snow in the MSP metro. A slight wobble (30 - 60 miles) will make a world of a difference. Hopefully MSP weather forecasters do a good job of explaining this conundrum. If they don't, they will have egg on their face.

    Here is my shot in the dark:
    MSN = 0" / LSE = 2" / RST = 7" / Red Wing = 6" / MSP = 2" (Maple Grove = 1"/Hastings = 4") / STC = 0"

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  51. I'm hoping Woodbury gets at least a healthy 3 inches with a period of heavy snow. My 4-year old desperately wants to play snow football during a snow event - I was at work meetings all weekend 2 weeks ago when all the fun was unfolding!

    It sounds like from what you are all saying is that us in the SE metro have a better shot at 3+ than those in the NW metro?

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  52. Duane: There are a lot of reasons why people who hate cold weather and snow can't just pick up and leave. Many people have family obligations and many people have jobs that are too good to leave or maybe they've been at their jobs for so many years that they can't afford to start over somewhere else. It's really pretty simple. It's just not black and white like so many people think...

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  53. Man this is a close call for metro forecast,has bust written all over it,in either direction meaning far less or far more snow then forecasted at MSP,current thinking of NWS is no greater then 2.5 for MSP,I'm really surprised there aren't any snow advisories to the north of the watches when in their discussion they say 3-6 can fall upto Lakeville,I hate these type of storms when u see the heavy snow so close but yet so far away,to be honest with you I would take anything at this point I hate seeing all this brown and green it would be nice to cover everything in white,tis the season.

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  54. Kare 11 is estimating a trace in the NW metro to about 3 inches in the SE metro and nothing in St. Cloud. They don't have a graphic for any area over 6 inches, but acknowledged that there will likely be a 6+ strip somewhere.

    I'm waiting to see KSTP's estimates at 5:00

    One of these storms has to take a direct hit at MSP eventually, right?

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  55. @Anonymous posting for Duane,
    I was going to say the same thing as you said. If only life were so simple that we could pick up and move without regard to a lot of things!

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  56. Ken Barlow's forecast is even more general than Kare 11's. He has 4+ for SE MN, and a sharp cut-off area of 1-3 around that. He shows no significant accumulations as close as western Hennepin county and noted the storm 3 weeks ago that pushed eastward...hinting that this might do the same???

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  57. WCCO is also using a model that pushes everything further east. Their meteorologist showed it, while saying, "I don't believe this model is correct." Then what's the point of showing it?

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  58. @AB That's standard fare for WCCO. Makes no sense. I've talked with other forecasters in town who call it lazy.

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  59. Snofall totals expected:

    NWS: 1-3in
    Novak: 1-3in
    (in)accuweather.com: .9in
    Weather.com: 1.5in
    intellcast: less than one inch
    imap: Trace (I frown upon these guys)

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  60. Working on local guys...

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  61. Here are the local doods:

    Kare: 1-3in
    WCCO: 1-4in
    KSTP: 1in, mainly in SW suburbs
    KMSP:1-3in

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  62. Forgot wunderground again...

    1-4in

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  63. Here's what I picked up from the evening news segments:
    WCCO 1-3
    KSTP 2
    FOX 1-3
    KARE 1-3

    I'll wrap it together later on a separate post.

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  64. That's not good. We have different accounts from WCCO. Easy enough to check on their website.

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  65. WCCO is saying 1-3; I can confirm that. The model they used on their newscast showed that we'd get nothing. That was the point of my post. They are saying one thing and showing another.

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  66. @bemaki KSTP's is 2 per tweet from Patrick Hammer.

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  67. craz how models can be...

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  68. exuse my spelling, crazy...

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  69. It will be intersting, however the storm becomes. I just hope it will dump. Most of the forcastes are saying 1-3in

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  70. The NWS is is saying at this time...
    This ought to be one of the things I like about them. They do not confirm it until it happens.

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  71. Alas, a fresh post to recap.

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  72. Paul Douglas posted a quote a week ago and I think it fits here: "Don't predict rain when you're in a drought."

    We've been missed by everything for months. Based on our weather pattern, I expect to get the lesser end of the forecast for this storm, or any storm for that matter.

    Until we get dumped on, or until something too huge to ignore comes along, it is unwise to predict a dumping. I think that's why we're getting such modest forecasts...and I definitely think they'll miss to the high side, not the low side, even with those modest predictions.

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  73. Yeah, I get that people can't just get up and leave...maybe I was a bit harsh in my comment I posted. I guess it really wasn't intended on being that way. I do know that a lot of us are weather enthusiests on this site so we would rather see things get more interesting around here. I guess I found that instead of complaining about the things that nature offers, we should embrace it (minus the destruction that can come with nature, of course). As Joe B. would say...enjoy the weather, because it's the only weather you've got. :)

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  74. @Duane

    To me, "interesting" means no snow. Snow in winter is not interesting. Cold in winter is not interesting. Different perspective I guess -- I hate snow.

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  75. I don't necessarily dislike the snow, and I like to enjoy it when the temps are conducive to doing something outside. When it's 10 degrees outside with a windchill, it's not real fun going skiing or snowshoeing when you're freezing your butt off. If we had snow and temps like Colorado, I wouldn't mind it! :) I do have to say though, I HATE the cold.

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