Sunday, November 27, 2011

While We Wait for Interesting Weather....Share Your Weather Links

As snow lovers and winter weather enthusiasts wait for "interesting" weather to come through the region, it's been suggested that we use this break in the action for followers and weather enthusiasts to post their favorite weather sites, links, etc. If you're inclined, provide some of your bookmarked favorites so we can share the weather love.

In the meantime, we'll all keep scanning the horizon for something, anything that's interesting.


  1. Picking up from the last comment on the last post, here's what @Bemaki wrote:

    Here are some of the sites I use-

    One of my favorites:

    For the long ranges:

    the infamous site of inaccurate weather:

    Major forcecasts I use:

    cool interactives:

    The local doods:

    My model info:


    And finally, meteorology out of this world:

  2. A few more model sites that haven't been mentioned.

    That last one also has links to basically every text product put out by NOAA.

  3. Or they we're mentioned and I didn't pay attention.

  4. It looks like most of the sites I use (that are free) have already been posted. Since we all love to speculate/guess on what the next system will do, I wanted to turn our attention to this upcoming weekend. While the GFS hasn't come around on it yet, the foreign models (Canadian and European) show a chance at some accumulating snows for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Last night the Euro had us getting side swiped to the east, but the 12z run of it bumped it west. It's still too far out to get excited about, but it needs to be watched...especially since there's a good shot at it being all snow with a pretty good cold shot behind it. Use the sites listed to track this one in, and join in on the "speculation":)

  5. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 28, 2011 at 12:58 PM

    Wow, this is great stuff! Thanks for setting up the page, Bill, and for asking the question. I will have much more information down the road. Keep 'em coming!

  6. I agree Duane, the system for this weekend the GFS has completely missed, it's in it's own camp fighting the lonely war. GFS vs the team led by the Euro followed by the GEM, NOGAPS, and the JMA. Since this is the 4th run in row for the Euro showing snow somewhere between Chicago and Minneapolis, fix may just be in, now the question is how far north and west or south and east will it go?

  7. I didn't really even pay attention to it because I figured the system would be too far way, but even the NAM has the system for this weekend...only sooner. So...we'll see how this one plays out.

  8. @Bill-

    Thanks for posting those

  9. Not much more I can add on weather info websites,that hasn't been mentioned already,except a paysite). For this weekends "event" everyones favorite inaccuweather is already calling for 2" of snow for Sunday for what's it worth.

  10. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 28, 2011 at 8:34 PM

    @Bemaki. You rock. Thanks for being so thorough!!

  11. Ok, I may have missed it...but this is another link to get to the Canadian site. I know this can be found on other sites but this one is the fastest to update from what I've seen. This is only the Canadian model though.

  12. the 00z gfs looks really depressing if you are a snow lover!

  13. ok snow lovers GAME ON!!!!

  14. hope this works...I'm not sure if it will

  15. while I wait for snow, I enjoy learning more about "space weather" and aurora borealis in particular....

    Paul Douglas gave a nice mention in his blog the other day. I was hoping to see some northern lights tonight, but couldn't find a decent dark spot up here near Cambridge to see the northern horizon.

    Thanks for all the links!

  16. Here is site that is run by a friend of mine, his name is Jon and it has lots of info on it, by permission any one can use it.

  17. God, can never trust Paul Douglas,am I the only one who sees it or does he just constantly contradict himself,go look at his last blog(around midnight),in one sentence he states" 0" rain/snow over the next 84hrs NAM model" then scroll down a little and he has the graphic up for snowfall from the 84hr NAM model talking about snow in unlikely places(which i will get to in a moment)well that graphic has a band of 2-4" right thru the heart of the metro,SO WHAT GIVES!,also he talks about snow in unlikely places,like Memphis,Indianapolis,South Bend,and Detroit,last I checked snow is pretty common in all those areas except for Memphis(which gets snow on average 3/4 times a year),the guy is not consistent in the same blog,I hope hes dead wrong on the header to the blog ' SNOW DROUGHT,NO SIG. SNOWFALL THRU MID-DECEMBER.

  18. You are right Big Daddy.
    Sometimes I wonder about his competence overall.
    He certainly proved himself to be a successful and to some extent creative entrepreneur, but I am getting a bit skeptical of his meteorological skills per se.
    He either blows things out of proportion, or downplays them dramatically.
    And yes, he contradicts himself a lot.

  19. I posted this at Paul Douglas's weather blog, but would like some discussion here if possible.

    I continue to be skeptical of these "pioneer" weather records. You're saying it was -25 in 1875. The next coldest record was -13 in 1891. The average low for today is +18. So the pioneer record is 43 colder than the average and 12 colder than the previously accepted data set low (1891-present)? I don't buy it. Even today's record high of 62 is only 29 off the average. 43 is exceptional. I would like to see a chart of how many post-1891 hi/lo records were superseded (replaced) by the pioneer data. It seems like there are a lot, especially winter lows. And there seem to be many pioneer records that are enormous jumps from the previous data, such as this one. I just think the accuracy is questionable.

  20. On the PD subject, he drives me crazy over his insane headlines too. One of the (many) things that has made me stop and question lately from him was on Saturday November 19th I think it was, when he goes from saying "2-5 inches Northwest Metro, Trace to an inch" Southeast Metro (Or something close to that) and than not even 2 or 3 hours later has a new headline, "2-5 southeast Metro, 1' Northwest"

    Not only is he inconsistant like that, his headlines or often very bold and go the very opposite direction.

    On the subject of the possible snow situation this weekend, the NAM only goes out 84 hours, but near the end of it to me it seems like that big glob of moisture is poised to come in our direction early next week. I have a good feeling about a Monday snowstorm next week

  21. Some highlights about what November's snow might mean for the rest of the winter.

    Assuming (as I think it is pretty safe to at this point) that Nov 2011 will go down with 3 inches at MSP, I looked at the historical records.

    Of the 128 Novembers since records started (1884), 76 of them (59.3%) had snowfall of more than 3 inches.

    If we look at the remaining 52 Novembers with snowfall of 3 inches or less, the average total snowfall for the winters that followed is 40.09 inches. The overall 128 average is 45.9 so about 13% below average.
    Snowiest winter starting with a less than 3 inch November was 1916-17 (84.9 inches).
    Least snowiest 1888-89 with only 15.4.

    Once again, evidence of the crazy variability of Twin Cities winters.

  22. Always enjoy the statistical assessments, Rigil. I take your data to mean that this November's snow performance is neither all that unusual nor all that predictive of the rest of the winter.

    As for PD's blog, I think he should make clear distinctions between the segments of his post dealing with weather/environment-related stories (which I think most find to be informative and interesting) and the immediate weather forecast. He clearly makes changes on the fly to his posts on the weather prediction side and that results in content that overlaps, confuses, contradicts, etc., and headlines that get rewritten. Needless to say, it makes it harder to assess his performance in a retrospective manner when each post changes. I don't know that he necessarily means for all this to be confusing, but it does seem to be the result. Finally, as for his bold statements such as "minimal snow in sight through mid-November"... I think it's very dangerous to suggest any suredness (maybe a new word?) beyond 5-7 days, particularly at this time of year.

  23. Here's another example of "bold" statements. On KSTP's weather blog DD finishes by saying

    "That means we'll end up colder than normal for the month of December..."

    Based on what?

    Did any of you notice he said the same about November a month ago when talking about the possibility that the big Alaska storm would realign the jet stream permanently to usher in cold shots after cold shots?
    November is running 5 degrees above average!!

  24. The storm coming the weekend is a forecaster's nightmare.

    It will be the result of the phasing of two systems.
    The first one came ashore Tuesday night over the far north west US, it is forecast to drop almost straight south to the SW US and get cut off from the jet stream creating a strong closed upper level low. This is referred to as the southern system.

    The second system is programed to come ashore sometime late Thursday afternoon or early evening over NW Canada and drop SE over Idaho and Montana, the trough from this system will drop into Utah and phase with a piece of southern system and then move towards the Upper Mississippi Valley.

    This posses 3 major question's in my mind.

    #1. Because the northern system comes into a sparsely populated area will the balloon network pick it up Thurs evening or will it wait till Friday morning? (I don't know for sure).

    #2. Will the two system phase? As it looks right now I think there is a 8 in 10 chance they will.

    #3. How fast will the northern system with it's leading cold front drop over us? If it's 12hrs earlier the snow will stay south of MN. If its 12hrs later the snow will end up over the Metro, and if it's in between the snow band will set up just south east of the metro.

    If I were a public met (I'm just a amateur), I would swallow my pride and admit I don't know where the heaviest snow will fall, but that travel this weekend could be hazardous any where from the metro down to NW IA and into southern WI.

  25. Randy as you said a few days ago,GAME ON!,as of now the weekend system has the looks of an Texas Panhandle hooker which is what I was calling for a few days ago,I hope it delivers us a direct blow and PD AND PH can both eat crow with their talk lately about no big storms out till mid-december,even tonights/Thursday morning system has the NWS abit nervous if you read their discussion(there could be localized 2-3" amounts)and I like how they warned the public about crappy travel Thursday morning,Bill its getting "interesting" maybe time for a new post,just saying.

  26. @ Big Daddy last nights post on PD's blog written by Todd Nelson was good...the flag went up!!!

  27. also just a heads up....there is chance of a quick couple of inches near the metro around Dec 8th..if that materializes, it could get real cold around the 9th or 10th with our 1st good chance of below zero temps somewhere in MN. Dec looks to be setting up with temps below normal.

  28. I hate it when I can't just took a look at the 6z gfs...another shift to the it shows no more snow in Illinois.

  29. lol I'm glad I'm not the only one that can't sleep. Randy is correct...the 06z GFS took a shift to the NW and is now more in line with the Euro. In fact it is even further west than the Euro was. If models continue this trend, we have a good shot at seeing accumulating snow this weekend. Just some things to keep in mind...this system is obviously pretty confusing to the models since they are jumping around as badly as they are. Also, we all know how these can shift even right up to a couple hours before the event happens, so last minute changes are likely. There is still a chance that models come back with a solution to push it out east again, but since I tend to really watch the trends of the models...I'm feeling good that this one will be worth watching. Chanhassen's weather story graphic even makes mention of this potential this coming weekend. If the models can lock in, and be consistent with the path and QPF amount, watches will probably be needed by Thursday afternoon. Again, models don't have a solid lock on it, so lots can change. Let's not all get our hopes up since it has been months since we've seen much of anything, but it would be nice to get this landscape covered by some snowfall to ring in the month of December.

  30. Starting to look like someone will get some heavy snow.

    Who is the million dollar question.

  31. What I like about this weekend's system is:
    1.) We finally will have some cold Arctic air to work with.
    2.) The storm should have plenty of time to gather Gulf moisture and spread in north into the Midwest.

    Of course, track and jet phasing (among many other things) are yet to be determined, but the 2 aforementioned aspects of this storm should be music to a snow lover's ears.

    This one will be fun to watch.

    ps. - All models are pointing to a major Arctic outbreak later next week. I wouldn't be surprised if some areas of MN fail to reach zero for highs by Friday AM.

  32. Just took a glance at the 12z NAM.
    The weekend system looks impressive now for the area!!
    Any thoughts?

    Let's wait for the 12z GFS, which is being updated as we speak...

  33. Just added a new blog post to discuss the latest upcoming weather...

  34. Yeah I have a thought,tell PD to shut his pie hole,man is so bold to say no significant snow till mid-december he should look at other models not just the gfs,watch him try to spin this

  35. Is it possible to put all these links on the side bar? Easy quick to see?