Sunday, November 20, 2011

For Central MSP, Snowfall Surprises Twin Cities Forecasters


Whether or not you think this was a well-predicted storm probably depends on where you live. For purposes of The Minnesota Forecaster and our assessment, we consider what happens at our urban St. Paul headquarter location, approximately three miles south of 94 and two miles east of the Mississippi. The official snowfall recorded by the MSP airport was 3.0 inches, which was essentially the same amount received at TMF.

In the big picture, this storm was fairly well predicted. However, upon closer inspection – specifically the snowfall in the close-in metro – the performance was lacking. MPR’s Paul Huttner provides a very good synopsis of the general forecast performance and challenges here. Due to the on-again, off-again nature of the storm, we didn’t track each and every forecast leading up to the storm as we might have. Here’s our subjective assessment of the performance of local forecasters.

Essentially, all weather prognosticators missed the band of heavier snow that set up over the south metro. As of Friday night, most forecasters were calling for 1-2 inches of snow at best for the Twin Cities. All forecasters also stated that metro snowfall amounts would be higher on the northwest side; some, such as KARE11’s Jerrid Sebesta, even suggested that southern suburbs like Burnsville might not receive any snow (Burnsville recorded 3 inches).

We felt that Fox9’s Ian Leonard minimized this storm a little too much. His mantra for the storm in the days leading up to the storm was “more wet than white” and he attempted to distance himself from others’ storm hype that he felt was unwarranted. While in the end this was clearly not a megastorm, we think the large number of metro-area traffic accidents reflects that it was a legitimate storm that justified solid warning if not hyping.

On Saturday morning, the Star Tribune’s Paul Douglas, while rightfully declaring that he thought snow amounts would be toward the upper end of the 1-3 inch range, forecast that the snow would not stick to roads until closer to 5 p.m. as darkness descended. This, in fact, was wrong, and was no small error given the number of people relying on his information.

As late as early morning Saturday, MPR maintained an expectation of a coating to an inch. MPR upgraded forecasts amount by early afternoon to reflect higher snowfall projections.

We also believe the National Weather Service was inexplicably slow in issuing a snow advisory. While one can argue that the first snow of any kind justifies the issuance of an advisory, the band of heavier snow that began to set up over the south metro shortly after noon should have triggered an advisory. This seemed a missed opportunity for public awareness about deteriorating road conditions. The advisory was issued close to 3 p.m.

As we said, we didn’t watch every forecast from every media outlet leading up to the storm. Did you see any forecasts or official comments that you thought were especially on or off for this storm forecast?

83 comments:

  1. I noticed that in their morning discussion on Sat, the NWS guys were the only ones emphasizing that the main band of precipitation seemed to be developing further south than originally thought. Although they did not explicitly mention the heavier snow bands in the south metro, I did not see anybody else acknowledge this possible southern shift.

    Another thing I noticed is that the real winners here were the models!
    The GFS (using Cobb Method) was consistently printing out at least 2 inches of snow for MSP (to my recollection the highest was about 2.9) since Wednesday at least. I was indeed surprised how forecasters were dismissing it.

    Finally let's remember that on his last weathercast on Thursday night before the weekend break, Dave Dahl was the only one who mentioned 3-5 inches.
    So I think that we need to give him credit for that.

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  2. It helps to know what goes into the issuance of an advisory before criticizing the performance...

    "A Winter Weather Advisory is issued when any one or combination of the following winter weather elements is expected during an event: three to six inches of snow, light sleet accumulation, light ice and snow or sleet accumulation, or significant visibility reductions due to light snow and/or blowing snow."

    3" of snow is the bottom end of this criteria. Had an advisory been issued and MSP had received 2.5" of snow, Bill would complain because it was over-forecast and over-hyped.

    --Kevin

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  3. There was sleet and ice before the snow began and a mix was forecasted before the snow for days leading up to the storm. In addition, MnDOT claimed that early ice was partially to blame for all the crashes yesterday.

    The NWS issues winter storm warnings all the time when "up to" 6 inches of snow is in the forecast. I don't think ANYBODY would have criticized an advisory being issued yesterday.

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  4. Kevin, where's that criteria listed? I'd always thought there was a certain amount of subjectivity in when the NWS decides to issue advisories and that it's not unusual for them to factor in the idea that it's the first snow of the season. Also, as to concrete criteria, I know that Florida weather service offices issue wind chill advisories when the windchill is forecast to be in the 20s... so certainly there is discretion?

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  5. The office areas of responsibility are generally binned by latitude for certain criteria. For Baton Rouge, for example, 1-3" of snow in 12 hours is "warning" criteria.

    --Kevin.

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  6. Here is the advisory criteria for MSP:

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=wwadef

    Based on that information, an advisory should have been issued for the entire Twin Cities metro simply because there was a known risk of freezing drizzle, sleet, AND snow, regardless of the accumulations that were forecasted.

    I understand that these watches/warnings/advisories are posted based on the forecast, not on what actually occurs. The NWS can use that to defend why they waited to issue the advisory, while I say it's the reason they should have issued it sooner.

    Regardless of what they THINK will happen, if the models are telling them there's a risk for advisory criteria to occur, they have a responsibility to relay that to the public. This hesitation happens more often than it should. Sometimes you have to forget what the models are telling you and instead look out the window.

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  7. Clarification...I forgot the "At the same time" before "sometimes you have to forget what the models are telling you..." Now it will make sense.

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  8. Bottom line... Motorists are responsible for driving to conditions. If you look at when accidents occur versus when advisories and warnings are issued, the NWS products don't impact travel to the degree one might expect.

    Also, there is always a high number of accidents for the first event, regardless of what NWS products are issued. Look at the first storm of last season... Warnings issued several days in advance and there were still several hundred accidents.

    The onus for the accidents resides with the drivers, not the weather forecasters.

    --Kevin.

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  9. AB and Kevin,
    You both make good points. I can understand that the NWS has to be somewhat discerning in its declaration of an advisory lest people (like me!) accuse them of crying wolf. As for yesterday, all I can tell you is that I did some errands yesterday in the late morning and, for whatever reason, was surprised at how quickly it got bad. Bottom line is that weather forecasting is still not perfect....

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  10. I can see why the cautious call was made to not issue a MSP Metro winter weather advisory for fear of crying wolf. But, being the first storm of the season and from what the radar looked like a couple of hours before the advisory flag was finally hoisted, the advisory should have been issued sooner. With that said, I'm not sure that would have changed anyones travel plans. Personally, I was traveling from the west metro to the east metro on 494 from approx 1:15 pm to 2:15 pm and was surprised (because of the expected timing of the snow) by the poor road conditions. A couple of personal side notes. (1) When traveling during a storm I will sometimes listen to WCCO 830 AM. However, WCCO was broadcasting a football game. (2) Did anyone else have issues accessing the MPX NWS website from about 1:30 pm to 3:00 pm on Saturday 11-19-11? Again - just 2 of the sources I like to monitor and both let me down at the height of the first storm.

    AB - thanks for the winter weather definition link for MSP.

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  11. I personally can't blame MPX for the lack of a advisory for the metro. I was watching radar returns all morning and did see the snow shield further south in the Dakotas. However as it was approaching the metro between 11am and noon, the radar returns were showing snow at the 6000 ft level in Wright county but none at the 2600 ft level, the column of air over the metro was not showing complete saturation. Plus there were signs of a NE wind direction which normally means dryer air working in. But my 1pm the column became saturated (as Novak had predicated)and the snow started falling before most expected. But here is the problem that all of us encounter with the 1st snowfall of the season, why do any of us plan on running 30 mile errands? Even us in MN have to get our winter driving legs underneath us...of course there will be tons a crashes, especially when it comes on a weekend when people want to travel faster on the interstates than they would typically do during the week.

    And my forecast winner for this event? Novak, he correctly forecast that the column would saturate by 1pm and that most of precip would fall as snow, he was just a little bit to far north with the 2-4" band, so I score him a B+ and the rest around a C

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  12. a little off topic, but the new CFS is out, brings a smile to my face!!!!

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/usT2mSea.gif

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  13. @Randy For those of us who don't understand that graphic, what's the take? I see a lot of red... does that mean warmer than normal?

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  14. If the 12z GFS verifies and continues the current trend of a massive cut-off low/storm system over the Midwest, WATCH OUT!

    This could get interesting.

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  15. Bill, yes it does Dec/Jan/Feb have now flipped to +1 to +2 above normal

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  16. @randychamplin.
    Very interesting and puzzling. I just went to the CPC website and they also have this chart out, that seems to be completely at odds with the other link you provided!
    Thoughts anybody?

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif

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  17. @anon 11:53

    Two things, the CPC depiction is what the forecasters think will happen, The CFS is a model. Plus the latest CPC was put out on the 17th and the CFS update came out on the 20th. What will be interesting is whether or not the CPC peeps will adjust theirs with the next update.

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  18. makes sense randyinchamplin.
    Thanks for the clarification.

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  19. *IF* this cutoff storm does materialize, where's ground zero looking to set up? From what I understand, right now it's aiming for areas just east of us...but I don't understand much!

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  20. GFS showing retrograde low...
    this will be interesting indeed..
    inaccuweather says 2.7 inches. It is intresting to note how far in depth they go...

    Weather.com does not belive this event even exists yet... the only thing I see is a 30% chance of snow showers.

    intellicast predicts snow showers saturday as well... nothing to say about the cut off though....

    Anything else I didn't notice? I do not have time to check the local guys

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  21. Dave Dahl, who seems to me to be the best at snowstorms along with KSTP, says we could see a "significant snow" on Monday and Tuesday of early next week. I'm getting excited about this one, it looks promising and I think we could see the first big snowstorm of the year. (considering saturday's was very minor for me)

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  22. @bemaki Where did you see Inaccuweather's 2.7 inches? Can't seem to find that for myself.

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  23. It's way too early to even speculate how this one will play out. The path of this low certainly isn't a "normal" path, but given the trough that is supposed to dig out, it wouldn't surprise me to see a nice storm get spun up. Still a lot up in the air with this, so stay tuned. :)

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  24. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/stillwater-mn/55082/daily-weather-forecast/333835?day=8

    Look at 'night' to find the 2.7in they are predicting.

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  25. Amazing. But it looks like only 1.1 inches for Minneapolis next Monday night.

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  26. GFS is following trend of ECMWF of making that upper low far more prggressive and leaving us with very little snow. HPC long range discussion is following ECMWF trend. Fun while the GFS storm lasted

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  27. @ Hammer...amazing, just simply amazing, the 06z run of the good for speculation model (GFS), closes/cuts off upper level low, spins it over MO/IN for a while, than phases with the trailing piece of energy and creates a upper level cyclone that at 192 hrs effects the weather in almost 2/3's of the country... can I say fantasy?

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F22%2F2011+06UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

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  28. 12z GFS east again with barley anything. So one run over 1.5" of precip and the next run almost dry. Wont know much until the full trough enters Westcoast

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  29. I still do hope that what the GFS hinted there might mean somthing...

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  30. After putting some thought into it, I realized that somthing intersting is going on here. We shtould not be foucused on the lows, but the high to the west and the high to the east.

    There are two ways to define it. You could see it as a 'Battle of the Highs' or a case of goldilocks, but either way, it is rather interesting and qutie astounding.

    Now, in this case, there is a very weak low pressure coming in from the pacific. It seems fairly harmless. Then, most of the models bring it to Texas.

    Now, here is where the 'Battle of the highs' comes in. What appears to be a major change in the GFS is actually rather slight: the GFS model adjusted the strengh of the high wast of the cutoff, and you can see what happend with the system.

    Let me explain.

    There is three different options that could happen: two are extraordinarly common, while the other is extrapdinarly rare. Reffering to the goldilocks, one would be considered 'too hot'. the other 'too cold', with the exedingly rare scinario, a perfect storm, being 'just right'.

    So here is how it shapes up. In the case of 'too hot'. we see that the high east of the low is weak and/or the high west of the low too strong. This is what we see now in the models. The models dipict it very well. A rainstorm followed by a quick blast of snow, and it is over.

    In the case of 'too cold' we see the high in the west very weak, and the one in the east very strong. This is the secnario where we see are typical minnisotan snowstorms.

    In the case of 'just right', however, is execeedingly rare. If the highs get too strong, they merge, the low goes into the gulf, and its fate means that it will either peter out or terroize the east coast for a while. If they are too weak, they are not strong enough to draw the low up, and it sits in texas dumping rain for a while. However, if it is exatly on, the low goes up to the Midwest and stalls, dumping tremendous amounts of snow. while the highs battle it out.

    In other words, a scenario for snow lovers.

    That is what the GFS saw.

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  31. sorry for missspelling minnesotan...

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  32. Bemaki all that mumbo-jumbo,and the best we snow lovers will get out of it is flurries,u can't will a storm as much as u tried above!

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  33. @ bemaki agreed with what you said, except (and I say this with respect) that you missed one or two key players in this. Will a strong anti cyclone set up over the Labrador Sea and Greenland? and why? That leads me to #2 what is NE of there and will it block it from moving? Quite frankly I don't know. IMO there is only two solution's. #1 the anti cyclone will set up and block the low from leaving the NE US or it won't. If it doesn't the low will escape to the NE and the progressive pattern will continue

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  34. @ bemaki...at any rate it will be fascinating to watch

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  35. The models pushed the 2nd storm a little further west... I havent checked the east coast, though.

    A simalar event @randyinchamplin described combined with the one that I myself described is the halloween blizzard. According to the history books, the models did not nail it right away, and the forcasters repediatly called for rain.

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  36. For what it's worth, tomorrow will be the warmest Thanksgiving since 2006. I believe that was also the last time we officially had a brown Christmas (though I had a little snow where I live).

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  37. Yes, that is correct. Historically 1 in 4 Xmases are brown. so it would not be terribly surprising if this one ends up being brown.

    However, comparing this November to last year's: as of yesterday Nov 22nd November 2010 was running about 4.4 degrees above average. As of now we are about 3.2 above for Nov 2011.
    So strange as it may seem, up to yesterday last year's November was warmer than this one so far.

    And last year we ended up with 86 inches of snow.
    So snow lovers... out there... have faith!

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  38. @Rigil

    Where did you get that data? I find it hard to believe, considering many lakes were ice-covered by Thanksgiving last year and most of the metro was entering its 2nd week of snow cover. If it is true, it just goes to show how crazy our weather can be.

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  39. @AB

    I compile my own datasets from daily official data from the NWS. I double-checked and what I wrote is correct; however I also realised that my comparison was not entirely fair because the averages have changed. I think this year is the first year of the new 30-year rolling averages that the NWS uses.

    So, although up to Nov 22 last year was warmer than this year when compared to average, the actual average temperatures are pretty similar: 39 degrees in 2010, vs so far 39.2 in 2011.

    Now, in terms of snow cover the official snow cover for Nov 22, 2010 (according to NWS) was a T.

    I think all this provides a good evidence of how the perceived weather can be different from reality.
    Everybody remembers the big 8-inch snowstorm of Nov 13th last year, but few remember that that same week had highs in the high 60s (which is the main reason why that November was above average until that point). And few people remember that cover from that snowstorm was gone by the end of the month (at least officially at MSP).

    A final note: last November Thanksgiving week was pretty cold, but the month overall still ended up 2.8 degrees above average.

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  40. Where I lived, 15 miles west of the loop, we still had more than a trace on the ground (we also got closer to a foot from that storm), and we got another 8-12 inches on December 3-5, so yes, my perception would be skewed. I do know there was ice on the lakes in Wright and Carver counties though...probably because the week was so cold.

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  41. If anybody gets a chance, check out the forecast discussion La Crosse released from last night (overnight Tuesday into Wednesday). If you look at the longer range part of their discussion, they go into some pretty good detail regarding the pattern the models are showing with the blocking that is showing up. It's actually a pretty good read.

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  42. The weak low pressure system that will determine what our weather will do next week is just off the coast of california... Watch this one carefully...

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  43. Something smells. The storm this weekend could easily evolve into a whopper. Massive trough digging into the central Plains, vort max that increases in intensity, 700mb low developing over MN. If it doesn't hit here, then it certainly will over the Great Lakes.

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  44. @bemaki I lived here for the Halloween Blizzard. What I recall about the forecast was Paul Douglas pointing to a model (I think it was the night before the snow came) that suggested 28 inches of snow (or something close to the eventual tally). He added that nobody in their right mind would forecast that amount. So yea, while the initial thinking was for mostly rain, many of the models came around in time, and at least a few suggest the prodigious amounts of snow that fell.

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  45. Interesting article about the art of weather forecasting: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/why-are-snowstorm-forecasts-sometimes-so-wrong-part-one/2011/11/23/gIQA4ZfaoN_blog.html#pagebreak

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  46. Agreed Novak...GFS certainly spins up a nice system, where the new Euro moves things right along, and keeps it more open. It kind of makes you wonder if the GFS is overdoing it and the Euro is under doing it. It looks like the energy for the system will start making its way onshore Thursday night, so maybe Friday morning's runs will show something a bit more clear. I really think most of the action will be well east of us though, since the low continues to show strengthening pretty much right over us. This will probably be a case of too little too late, unless models develop the system sooner and dives a bit more south.

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  47. One word for our weather: BORING! Come on 60 on Thanksgiving,wheres some real winter weather.Novak the system you speak of will be enjoyed by the fine folks in the north country and Canada,not us.

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  48. @Novak- truth be told it looks like what your calling for will happen but the dynamics will happen east of here,I'm praying for a westward shift in the models today or tommorrow,like last weekends storm anything is possible,as of now NWS(1")and DD(1-2")or the only two that I heard call for snowfall this weekend

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  49. Patrick Hammer calling Saturday "interesting",calling for "minor accumalations"........................let's see what happens,I'm rooting for something big,really like to fire up that new 2-stage snowblower. Happy Thanksgiving Bill and to all who visit here,I'm thankful we live in a state that anything can happen weatherwise at anytime.

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  50. I'm confident that a good chunk of MN will receive a significant snow and travel will become rather difficult during on Saturday. Granted, it appears more likely to be the northern half of the state, but this could easily change. As Duane said, the storm has not come ashore yet and will later today and into tomorrow. Once this happens, the models will refine the storm track.

    Regardless, this is a busy travel weekend and many folks will be traveling all across MN to visit loved ones. I believe that it was a disservice not to mention the potential of a storm during the 4casts yesterday. Even if it doesn't happen, I believe that 4casters should at least give a heads up to keep abreast. Now, most Minnesotans will be shocked if parts MN receive a snowfall AND they will criticize the weather industry for not catching onto this sooner.

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  51. PD is calling for the snow to be mostly in the Arrowhead and NW Wisconsin. Time will tell.

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  52. I am currently watching the 18z for GFS come out...

    Looks interesting already... even though it is not compleatly done computing yet...

    Keep your fingers crossed...

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  53. Looking past this upcoming storm, I realize that inaccuweather's original prediction might be true... The GFS is hinting a a clipper coming through at the end of the month.

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  54. 00z GFS is really starting to come around on a really nice system for Saturday night. This is the most precip I've seen from it so far...and wonder if because the system is starting to get into the US data networks, that the models are showing this for what it really could be. We'll see if the non-American models start trending stronger with it as well. If they do, look out :)

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  55. I hope everyone had a good thanksgiving, I for one did, spent the day about 30 miles south of Rochester I was way out in the open where the wind was hollowing, sure didn't fell like 60°.

    Comparing tonight's water vapor image to the Nam and GFS. Both models seemed to have initiated well in the placement of the trough over the NW US and the moisture over the SW. But when looking at the 700 & 850 mb charts they both seem to have completely missed the fairly moist air currently over the Dakota's. I have no idea what if any affect that could have on Saturday's system.. Thoughts anyone? Surprise? No surprise?

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  56. NWS is completey ignoring the GFS,they even said so in their discussion,like novak said I think it smells,something is brewing nearby,Patrick Hammer calling for "a few inches" here in eastern minnesota,most other forecasters pretty ho-hum

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  57. http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=MPX

    00Z NAM Model run. The 18Z was a bit heavier on amounts, especially down here near RW. I find it odd that the NWS and others havent picked up on this one bit, but the models appear to be favoring a little snow. Wouldn't be suprised if they shoot up here soon and we get up to 5 inches somewhere close by...

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  58. Snowfall trending up if you follow the NAM,somewhere in the 2-4 inch range,let's see.

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  59. Very interesting...
    This storm is being forecasted exactly like the Halloween blizzard was.

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  60. I'm not too worried about a massive Snow Storm, but I certainly believe that our rain will change-over to some snow later in the day tomorrow. Gut feeling is that the significant accumulation will be in northeastern MN & over extreme northern WI and the U.P. However, I still don't feel that the models have a firm grasp on how this storm will evolve and it certainly needs to be closely monitored.

    On the other hand, I do expect roads to become slick later tomorrow all over eastern MN & western WI as temps crash. Travel conditions should become a bit tricky with icy spots. I'm surprised that this has not been stressed, especially when considering how many people will be on the roads.

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  61. @bemaki I don't recall all the specifics of the Halloween blizzard, but predictions for this weekend seem fairly different than for the Halloween blizzard. I recall there were "wacky" models that were predicting large amounts.

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  62. ok the verdict is in, another win for the Euro. For Saturday looks to me like any precip totals will be lucky to reach 1/10". Looking at the temps at 700mb,850mb,925mb and the surface temps, any snow fall is marginal at best, temps 2 meter's above the surface look to stay above freeing until about 12am Sun, at which time the precip should have moved to our east. To get snowfall at the surface with temps around 34 or so I would like to see the 850mb temps get to the north side of -5...that won't happen.

    With 2m temps staying well above freezing (34-35) any very light precip should stay liquid. With strong winds and the exhaust from cars I think the roads will stay mostly dry in the metro area. Travel problems should exist only in the Arrowhead of MN, maybe as far south of the Brainerd to Hinckley line.

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  63. Now for the 10 day forecast....but 1st let me say I forgot to say the that I would like to see the 850 mb temps at -5 C, sorry.

    Both the 12z Euro and GFS are in general agreement that the only precip in the next 10 days will be seen tomorrow, so don't expect much more than that.

    For temps... while there will be some some days that are near normal, any deviation from that should be above normal. I do not see any single digits above zero F for lows. Both the GFS and Euro are in agreement there.

    Of course things could change quickly, but the 10 day forecast is above normal in the confidence factor..say 6 out of 10. Drought will continue to deepen.

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  64. Well if it was 30 degrees out right now this could be a lot of white stuff at least where I am. (Red Wing)

    Too bad its 48 right now

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  65. Who knows when we will have a snowstorm around here,this pattern sucks,btw!,but I can tell you somewhere during the first week of December we will finally feel like winter,temps for highs consistently in the 20's to near 30,now if we can just get a storm to run from the Texas Panhandle to Lacrosse,Wisconsin all snowlovers will rejoice.

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  66. Any moisture, in any form, is good news. The bad news is that 7-10 days out, there's nothing...not rain nor snow. The concerns with this now prolonged drought go far beyond the disappointments of a potential "brown Christmas."

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  67. The jet stream is all over the place with massive troughs and ridges. This is creating an environment that is conducive for large cut-off lows. In turn, models have a very difficult time predicting cut-off lows and how they will evolve. Expect surprises and significant model discrepancies until this pattern dramatically changes. Frustrating.

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  68. @Novak-

    How far would you consider the models as "trustable", then?

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  69. Another Saturday behind us,and the next Saturday the only chance for snow this week or another chance for snowlovers to be disappointed or another chance for DD to say "it potentially could be significant" during his blogs this week,maybe buying a new snowblower was a bad omen,I should return it to reverse this snowless pattern

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  70. So far out, it can't be taken very seriously, but on the 11th-13th the GFS is bringing something big into the area. Again, it's very far out, and could be nothing in the next model run, or be 500 miles away, but right now it's the ONLY sign of anything in the next 15 days. Hoping it turns into something we can talk about.

    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images/Models/GFS/CON/CP/large/surface/2011112712_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_348.gif

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  71. I wouldn't trust model guidance much past 48 hours right now. Euro guidance seems to be performing better than American models.

    I have not seen a more messed-up, screwed-up jet pattern than what I see now. This wouldn't be that surprising if it were Spring, but we are in the late fall.

    I have a tough time forecasting in this environment and the liklihood of a continued drought is high in Minnesota.

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  72. European model has something that looks hopeful about 160-175 hours out


    http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

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  73. Comparing the Euro 06z and 12z 180 hours out, there is a lot of variabillity. However, there appears to be a westward trend in the euro along with a strenting trend. There is still a lot of potential changes with this system, wven if it does in fact come into existance.

    However, it does give us snow lovers somthing to talk about, at least.

    Also, there appears to be a extrodinarly gradual strenthening trend in both the eure and the GFS in a very weak low coming through on december 1st. Before, both the models had absolutely nothing on that, and now there is a very light band. Let us hope that these trends continue

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  74. The observed AO (Atlantic Oscillation) has taken a nose dive that the models have missed up to now. Observed values are the black line...

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

    I was waiting to see if the models would pick up on this as it indicates a flip in the temps could be in the cards 8-10 days out.

    27/12z Euro

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

    GFS 24hrs earlier

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPUS216.html

    looks cold to me

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  75. I just looked at the latest run. GFS shows an interesting feature right before it goes into "good for speculation" mode. Almost cuts off. See how it will evolve.

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  76. Did everyone hear that,that's how I'm feeling about the weather currently

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  77. This is starting to look promising, next Sunday-Monday. Hoping it turns into something as the GFS is now hopping on the bandwagan with the European model and giving us a good shot at snow. Crossing my fingers

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  78. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 27, 2011 at 9:24 PM

    Bill, I have a suggestion. Since the weather is suppose to be pretty quiet for a couple of days (weeks?), what if you have everyone post their favorite weather sites (links) so that those of us who don't have all of them can set bookmarks to them?? Good idea? I would love to have all of these good people on here respond so I can tap into these resources as well.

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  79. Both models have pushed the system south a bit. I hope for a push in the oppisite direction if we are to get a chance at some snow

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  80. @Plymouth Weather Lover-

    Here are some of the sites I use-

    http://www.weather.gov/
    http://www.wunderground.com/

    One of my favorites:

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

    For the long ranges:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
    http://www.weathermanwatson.com/maps.htm

    the infamous site of inaccurate weather:

    http://www.accuweather.com/

    Major forcecasts I use:

    http://www.weather.com/
    http://www.intellicast.com/

    cool interactives:

    http://imapweather.com/

    The local doods:

    http://weather.minnesota.cbslocal.com/US/MN/Minneapolis.html

    http://www.kare11.com/weather/
    http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/subindex/weather
    http://kstp.com/weather/

    My model info:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

    http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

    Others:

    http://www.foreca.com/North_America/United_States/Minnesota/browse
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

    And finally, meteorology out of this world:

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

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  81. @Plymouth Weather Lover Great idea! Just added a new post in response to your suggestion. Hope it turns out to be boutiful!

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  82. where i live the weather is unpredictable so i got used to it.
    it is even impossible to make 2-3 days forecast.

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