Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Forecasters Dismiss Friday Snow, Look to Monday for Potentially Plowable Event

Twin Cities forecasters are now focusing on a possible snow event for late Sunday and Monday. Evidently, the weather models are not yet conforming (nice to see they aren't giving in to peer pressure), and forecasts, accordingly, are rather across the board. KSTP has been the most aggressive with this storm, presently saying that the heaviest snow may end up right over the metro. FOX is the first to throw out possible snow amounts. WCCO and KARE seem to the most skeptical about the storm, thinking most of it will remain to the south.

As of Wednesday evening, here's what the local weather mavens had to say about what might happen late Sunday and Monday:

WCCO: Expect most of snow to fall south of MSP
KSTP: Think the heaviest snow may end up right over the metro
FOX: Possibility of 3-5 sloppy inches ... unless it stays warm and remains rain
KARE: Expect heaviest snow to fall south, perhaps across the I-90 corridor
Strib: Looking more likely for enough to shovel and plow
NWS: 50 percent chance of snow Sunday night and Monday
MPR: Indications are that a rain/snow mix will move in Sunday night

You can track the evolving forecast of the possible snow, by forecaster, here.

As always, follow TMF on Twitter and Facebook to learn of any changes in changes in the weathercasters' forecasts.


  1. Yes The models have wreaked havoc on the weather forecast the last couple days. I was reading a few of the comments from previous days on this blog. The models update every 6 hours and sometimes the variability of the same model 6 hours earlier or later is quite amazing. The GFS from yesterday at 18Z was showing convection on monday from this supposed snowstorm, meaning it would have kept us on the warmer side of the storm but as today has gone on it has trended us into the colder and potentially snowier side. This is a typical problem with GFS. Dont be surprised if this model starts to align with the Euro and pull the storm further south.

  2. South is where its going again,keep hearing how the pattern is changing and how snowier were going to get(namely kstp/dahl)but with each passing day the snow melts we see more dirty snow and spring is one day closer.NWS has taken the likely wording out for the metro as well as dropping the forecasted snow to slight chance for monday now,even in their discussion they say may hit 60 today(oh,joy bring winter back please)

  3. It all will depend on how strong the canadian high is and where it sets up. If it pushes into MN then the storm will most likely go south, but if the high sets up further north or west then the southern half of MN could get a decent snow. Should be interesting to see how it plays out in the upcoming days. Seems like this winter storms end up further north and west than what was thought 4-5 days out.

  4. yikes!!!! this thing is on sunday and monday is getting to look nasty or good depending on your perspective

  5. Most of the models showed the heaviest snows to the north of the metro on the 12z runs which I didn't believe. The 0z Nam is still way north but the GFS has come in line. I think as they come in tonight you will see align with the GFS

  6. 17.0z GFS Run shows heaviest snow in a band from West Central to East Central MN, Starting look like things are coming together for a decent winter storm.