Monday, February 7, 2011

Grades for the Feb. 5-7 Yawner of a Snow Event

A big storm it was never meant to be, but depending on which weather outlet you followed late last week you may have expected more snow that what actually fell at MSP over the last three days. About a half an inch of snow fell. As always, the progressive forecast provides the objective basis for our subjective assessments. Read on for grades:

FOX: A- As of Thursday night, Fox's weekend forecast of mere "nuisance flurries" seemed out of step with the others. But it was essentially true. Had Fox not joined the snow wagon with a forecast of 1-2 inches on Friday night (thought they noted it would likely be closer to an inch), they'd have aced this little baby.

Strib: C- The Strib was the first, and ultimately only outlet, to mention the possibility of 3 inches for the metro. It also held on to a forecast of more than one inch longer than the others.

KARE: B+ We always find it difficult to grade KARE because their forecasts are always couched in general terms like "there may be some light accumulations." However, they never seemed to predict any real accumulation for the Twin Cities, so they weren't far off.

KSTP: C+ Through Friday morning, KSTP included "inches" in their forecast and generally seemed to hang on to a forecast of appreciable snow longer than others except for the Strib. However, by Friday night, they latched on to the trend of snow staying mainly south.

WCCO: A- WCCO was generally good with this forecast. Their Friday night forecast of a "dusting to an inch" was on target.

NWS: A It was hard to find fault with the National Weather Service this time around. They never mentioned accumulations and never expressed the possibility that this weekend's snow would amount to much.

20 comments:

  1. It would still be nice to explain, in detail, what parts each got "right" in your mind, and which parts the forecasters got marked off for. Just a little rigor in your pursuit of media attention would be appreciated. It seems that you've gotten more "hype" for your website than the forecasters apply to their work.

    --Kevin

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  2. Kevin,
    Unless we're talking about specific temperature forecasts measured against actual temperatures -- such as what we did for the cold wave and are in the process of doing for this week's temps -- I don't know how you can apply hard standards to this process. Perhaps you have to look at it a bit like the way essays are graded -- there IS a certain amount of subjectivity in it. That said, I can say categorically that if someone predicts three inches of snow and it turns out that considerably more or less falls, that's going to result in getting marked down. If they're way off they're likely headed toward a D or F. If they're generally on but unspectacularly so, they'll probably get a B. If they go out on a limb from the rest and are right, they'll score very well. And if they go out on a limb and are off, they'll get a bad grade. Finally, outside of temperatures, forecasters seem to be speak in vague terms -- i.e, "maybe a little light snow," and I have to put myself in the position of the average viewer's head and what they might think that means. Again it is NOT scientific and it's as much amusement as anything. Still, I'd like to think people might pick up a little something that speaks to them.

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  8. Bill,

    Check out dahl's blog this evening,as you can see the 'singificant storm"that he mentioned last week for this weekend is gone,but now he writes about another storm early next week,i tell ya he just writes that stuff so viewers keep checking back,he starts so much hype over storms and most not all the time he is incorrect,its pretty funny.do you read his blog daily it always has some mention of a storm when no one else hasnt said a thing,i like dahl when it comes right down to when were getting a storm but he needs to stop looking 7-10 days ahead.

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  10. Didn't catch Dave Dahl's blog and it seems it's not on the site this morning? I've heard that he tends to place great reliance on one particular weather model (the European model). Perhaps that factors into what you're observing.

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  11. I agree with big daddy. It seems every day Dave Dahl has another "Big Storm" or as he says "Significant" snow to watch out for. Sometimes it comes, but mostly it ends up being a 1 inch clipper. Like the one you just graded, I'm sure this was a "Significant Snow" 2 weeks back.

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  12. But I don't get what's with all this critisisum and hate here...With grading comes opinions, and people seem to really hate your opinions for some reason...if they really feel that badly about it maybe they should just go make their own Grading Forcaster.

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  13. I agree! We've never said this was a scientific process, and we try to base opinions on facts. Thanks for the support!

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  14. bill go read dahls blog now,early next week is now light snow but watch out for end of next week just so funny

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  15. Hey guys; I also saw the comment from Dave Dahl and there does seem to be something brewing for next week in the Thurs/Fri time frame. It seems as he may be using a blend of the Euro model and the GFS (USA Model). The GFS has shown it in it's last 5 runs, but somewhat inconsistent as to strength and which areas will be impacted. On the other hand the Euro has shown it to be a much weaker system with minimal impact,...we shall see how things will develop if at all!!!

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  16. Dave might be on to something here, it looks like the GFS is stirring something up!

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  17. Upon further review, next Thursday/Friday, The GFS keeps us in a rather strong zonal flow (west to east), whereas the Euro Model has us in a west to northwest flow. If the GFS is correct that could bring the storm track over us. If the Euro is right the slight nw flow could bring a narrow ridge of high pressure over us allowing the systems to dry up (due to the dry air from the ridge) as they approach us. If the GFS is correct it could yet put this February in the the top 10 snowiest,however if the Euro trend continues this month could end up in the 10 least snowiest. Models wars anyone??? And however said forecasting the weather is easy??? LOL

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  18. But even if the GFS validates with the zonal flow, that's still not generally a big snow producer for us, right?

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  19. Bill:

    It won't be a huge snow producer in the terms of one big storm, but it could bring a series of storms that could drop 3-4" every couple of days. And if we could get some moisture out of the gulf, in other words the 850mb(about 5k above the ground) winds would switch around to the south, we see a significant event, but at this time it doesn't appear likely. So let's see what happens.

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