The focus of TMF moves to what may happen this Friday and again late in the weekend. As of Monday night, most forecasters see the possibility of a messy Friday, with a relatively small amount of rain/snow/slush. A potentially bigger storm for late in the weekend seems a possibility according to most forecasters. At this point, KSTP (who foresees a snowier pattern change coming from late in the weekend through next week), Star Tribune, and the National Weather Service seem the most bullish on the possibility of significant snow. One notable exception, however, was Fox, which did not mention the possibility of any rain or snow for Sunday or Monday.
A rundown of the collective forecasts for each of these events can be found here
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From the Area Forecast Discussion put out by the NWS...The ECMWF is the Euro model. ...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN TREND OF MODELS TODAY WAS TO WARMReplyDelete
THIS TIME FRAME UP SOME...SO DID BUMP UP BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IN THIS TIME FRAME. IN
ADDITION...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUBLE BREWING
IN THE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON TIME FRAME. EACH SENDS A SFC LOW OUT
OF CO AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH EXPANSIVE
PRECIP SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS THE WARMER OF THE
SOLUTIONS WITH MOST OF THE MPX CWA EXPERIENCING RAIN...BUT THE
ECMWF HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF SHOWING
A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM HITTING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CENTRAL MN AND
NRN IA. GIVEN TRACK RECORD OF THE ECMWF AND HOW THINGS HAVE PLAYED
OUT THIS WINTER WITH STORM TRACKS...WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD THE
MORE STABLE ECMWF SOLUTION ATTM. HAVE MENTIONED THE TREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HWO AND WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO SEE HOW
THIS PLAYS OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
Haha....I think Paul Douglas is speaking to TMF....."Let me make this perfectly clear: I do NOT think we'll see a foot of snow early next week. A few slushy inches? Possibly. No cause for panic, loathing or mass evacuation.....not yet."ReplyDelete
Bill,lose the friday snow headline,not happening,its a dud all it will do is stop the snow melt,dahl performed poorly with his projection so far out,now with sunday/monday storm he is still talking big as is nws(above comment)but PD just sounded the 'fizzle siren',so randyinchamplin what gives,I could read the nws forecast discussion anytime,but what do you actually think looking at those models(couple a days ago you were trying to clean up Dahl's mess on Fridays no-snow event),Im sensing a southern trend for Monday(more like Iowa and Wisconsin)maybe if dahl kept quiet a little we might actually get a stormReplyDelete
Bill and othersReplyDelete
Tell me how can 2 weatherman talk about the potential for an snowstorm with such a big variation,case in point both Paul douglas(startribune)and Paul Huttner(mpr)made their updates for today in the wee hours of this morning,PD says storm fizzles for monday(coating to 1")then PH says monday storm chance grows with an graphic of 8" in MSP dont they look at same models/info? SO FRUSTATING,JUST BRING ON THE BIG SNOWS!
Sometime PD reacts to every model run...using fizzle was ridiculous. Most models now convering on a snow event and on model comes in (the 18z GFS from yesterday) an PD pulls the plug. Use insticts, not just model dataReplyDelete
I will try and answer the Anon. question's in this post.ReplyDelete
First of all (and this is important) keep in mind that almost all models have a hard time when we get into a transition time ie: winter to spring.
The update from PD's blog has the snow back so he may be in agreement with Hunter's Blog...we will see.
Here is the problem for Monday, both The Canadian and GFS (usa) models show a significant snow event for some areas of MN. On the the other hand the European shows the snow staying south of Faribult and maybe even south of Owatonna.
Given the fact that 2 out of 3 models show the snow event on Monday effecting the metro area, you would think I would call for about a 60 or 70% chance of that happening.
However since I tend to put more trust in the Euro model I put the chances at 40-50%. When I read a blog or watch a 5 to 7 day forecast I can almost guess what model they are looking at. After that our news outlets tend to relay on their in house models. So all I can say is stay tuned
Fun to look back at the predictions before the Feb 20 storm. Thanks Randy.ReplyDelete