Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Bill,I'm telling you Dahl is on a roll(it would be nice if his forecast pans out)but his blog for the evening has significant snow for thursday and friday of next week with a better chance over the weekend,he would lead you to believe there will be 2 snowstorms in 4 days next week(shouldnt all this count in your grade either way if it pans out or not?)also when you read it and look at his 7-day he says it will cool back off on wednesday of next week(after a mini thaw)but the high temperature for next wednesday on his 7-day is 41 the warmest of all 7 days,he is just a trip!
The only disappointment for me so far is that rain we had in January, which melted so much of our snow. I suppose that's a good thing though, as it reduces the potential for flooding in the spring. Still, I'd love to see a few more 10+ inch snowstorms.
Big Daddy,Yes, it would be nice to track how Dahl's forecast pans out (and at least anecdotally we have your comments here to document that). In an ideal world, we'd have a way to log every forecast and every claim... Not sure how I would grade such an isolated prediction when nobody else sees anything coming. (And interestingly enough, Chikage sounded the all-quiet for the next 7 days; in fact, one question I'll have for her is how independent each forecaster's forecast is or whether they're tied in with a certain "station" thinking.) Maybe we can institute a little demerit system or some other way to recognize situations like this. I agree that this is the very kind of thing that the public needs to hear about.... the question is how to do it. Thoughts?
Bill and Big DaddyLooks like the Euro has caught onto the GFS idea, which is strange since it's usually the other way around. As it sits right now the GFS wants to bring it into the area around the dinner hour on Thursday, where the Euro is slower and brings it around noon on Fri, but again that is par for the course. And believe it or not the Euro is stronger with it. Btw, Chikage's 7 day goes from today (thurs) through next Wed. So I don't see a conflict with Dave's longer term outlook, at least not yet. Have a good day, hopefully things pan out, it has been so boring in the weather department, LOL
sorry me again, The NWS is hinting at this as well, check the last paragraph of their Area Forecast discussion.
I see this afternoon's blog for Dave shows that he is far from backing off this one, and says we could have a mix to start, and have some heavy snow on Friday.
Interesting. I wonder if Paul D will make a comment about this on his next update.
China's making weather today...“China's air force has boosted the volume of rain and snow in four of country's driest provinces to alleviate drought, an official with Shandong provincial government said Thursday.An air force cargo plane took off from Yaoqiang Airport in east China's Jinan City, capital of Shandong Province, late Wednesday and performed cloud seeding in four provinces including Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui.”China's air force boosts rain, snow in dry areas http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90776/90882/7283744.html
Paul D hasn't been updating his blog lately, it's been Todd Nelson. Wonder if Paul is on vacation and when he'll come back.
randyinchamplain thanks for the update on the weather models,i did see the nws discussion page(i check it everyday,nice to see another weather nut like me).Bill,nws isnt commiting to anything yet,just saying it will be unsettled,dahl is still the only one talking heavy snow for the end of next week,seeing as mr. douglas must be on vacation(sidekick nelson has been doing the updates)but you might want to get your trigger finger ready to be busy next week with watching what everyone has to say,I bet during the weekend you'll hear more about from others if it actually still has 'eyes' on minnesota.
Dave Dahl might have hit the spot. A couple days ago he had said there was going to be heavy snow on Friday and than a few days after that, and the GFS is picking up both of them right on top of us at his excact dates. He went out on a limb and he might just get it right. Congrats to him if thats the case. I also am curious if Paul D would be on this topic if he was in. Him and Dahl are the two that seem to be the long range guys. I for one like when they do that, get you excited early, and if they're right, thats all the better.
BillYou might have got your answer on if Chikage follows the station thinking,look at the kstp weather blog,she has back way off from dahls heavy snows claims,even the NWS has rain now on their extended forecast,what gives RANDYINCHAMPLAIN and Mark did the models do an aboutface you both have commented on how dahl looks to be on the spot.what gives?
Big Daddy:Dave was just reporting on what he was seeing, which I commend him for, it's kind of alert going out for the long range range, if you get my drift. The latest suite of models seems to like northern MN the best, say north of Brainerd. We are starting to get to the transition period (from winter to spring, summer to fall etc). The models have a hard time focusing in on one area during these times.This system should begin to come on shore late Wednesday early Thursday...at that time we will get a better read on it. Till then stay tuned.Sorry guys, best I can do now, it will certainly change a few times the next couple of days lol