Friday, July 15, 2011

Read It and Weep - Your Universal Heat Wave Forecast

Interestingly enough, the greatest amount of variability in the 7-day forecast is for today. Blue outline marks forecasts that (sort of) stand out as being cooler than others; red outline marks forecasts that stand out for heat. If you're not desiring a heat wave, you should be rooting for the Intellicast forecast, which "only" forecasts five consecutive days in the 90s.

The following information is based on forecasts collected this Friday morning.


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9 comments:

  1. LOL, ah the cool summer of 2011....

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  2. Plymouth Weather LoverJuly 15, 2011 at 12:43 PM

    We have over 3 inches in Plymouth. And that doesn't include last night. I put the rain gauge out this moring. The train effect is here. If the train sets up again later today, we may get over 5 inches here. Let's see those dew points rise with all of this added moisture.

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  3. Plymouth both the VSREF and The HRRR short term models say we have another round coming in, there is timing issue however, to be around 5pm or as late as 8pm. And I have 2". what concerns me is if we can see some sun. There are several stations just to our west and southwest that are reporting 50% cloud cover

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  4. Over three inches of rain here in Rochester. And with another potent line moving through, half a foot isn't all that improbable. Not bad for a forecast that this morning had no rain here until late in the evening. Oh, and three houses hit by lightning. Again, not bad for a storm that was later updated to being, according to ace forecaster Randy Brock of KTTC, not severe.

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  5. In and of itself, not sure if heavy rain and lightning constitute "severe." Nonetheless, it's clear that nobody forecast this much rain today, particularly this early into the day.

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  6. We are at nearly 5 inches here, and some areas around us are over 6 in Southeastern MN. More on the way by this evening.

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  7. Even the posts here show why accessible verification data would be useful. First someone mocks a "cool summer" forecast, as if a single heat wave constitutes that the entire summer was hot (same type of person that'll mock GW/CC theory based on a single cold snap). Then another person pounces on a local "ace forecaster" for apparently not getting the forecast right (which is highly subjective in the person's mind and honestly the ace forecaster could likely never be "right" given that perceptual disadvantage). Meteorologists/forecasters are not idiots and honestly know their forecasts can and will be "wrong". But so is the science that attempts to predict the future with imperfect tools. If, as a consumer, you reject that forecasts will be wrong, then don't use them. /rant

    As for severe, lightning itself does not define a "severe" thunderstorm, nor does heavy rain. The criteria used by NWS to defined a severe storm are winds of 50 kt (58 mph) or higher and/or hail 1" in diameter or greater.

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  8. Well, today's highs certainly were a bust. Get use to it. We are in a "Ring of Fire" pattern. This will promote rounds of T'Storms that will wreak havoc with high temps.

    There is no doubt that several days will be scorchingly hot, but a few days in there (like today) could easily be busts.

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  9. @P: Most sensible people rely on weather forecasts,do I need a umbrella today?,what will I wear will it be hot or cold?,will it be snowing/raining in the morning so I might need to allow for extra travel time,if someone is traveling by air will the weather delay my flight,there are several more examples then this when the general public relys on our "experts"(the ones who have degrees in the field)to get the forecast right,will they be wrong sometimes,sure,it not an exact science I get that,but they are getting forecasts wrong when its inside a 12-24hr window and that is alarming.Here's a perfect example,Friday morning I'm watching the FOX9NEWS(its 8:35AM) its about to pour for several hours and then pour again a few hours later and they are calling for a high of 90,the actual high yesterday 76!(I know they all got it wrong,they werent even close)10-15 degrees off is a BIG mistake,when your supposed to be the educated one,to tell me we will hit a high of 90 when we have two rounds of rain coming and roughly 10 hours daylight is pathetic,I'm not a meteorologist but even I knew we wouldnt come close to 90.come on!

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