If you're like most people, you like to start thinking about your next summer weekend just about the time the current weekend winds down (at least that's how we like to think!). That's the approach we took on Sunday, July 16. That evening, we gathered the temperature forecasts for the ensuing weekend (July 23-24) and plotted them on our handy Excel spreadsheet as follows (note: KARE11 does not formally forecast beyond five days, but Sven Sundgaard suggested that "90s were quite possible for the weekend"):
We thought that this forecast had a fair amount of challenge because there was a major heat wave that was about to hit high gear early in the week for a somewhat uncertain duration. The following table summarizes the forecast error for each of the weather oulets (we arbitrarily used 92 as the predicted temperature for Saturday and Sunday for KARE).
Amazingly, Weather.com (The Weather Channel) was exactly right for both days' forecasts. Based on our analysis, the rank order of all outlets was:
#8: Star Tribune
There's not all that much to take from this. It is, after all, just a one-weekend extended forecast sample. Were we do to this for every weekend over the course of a longer time -- months to a year -- the results would be a lot more meaningful. Also, and just as importantly, we didn't record the forecast as it related to sky conditions/storms, etc.