Analysis: Here's the recap from the week's forecasts made as of Saturday, March 10 for the week ahead. The snapshot reveals that the National Weather Service was the most accurate weather outlet, with a 28-degree variance for the week (average of four degrees off for the week). WCCO was the best television weather outlet with a 32-degree variance. However, it should be noted that the Fox forecast was outdated at collection time and did not include the whole week's forecasts. And KARE11 does not forecast beyond five days. As often seems the case with a changeable, record-breaking week of temperatures, predictions often do not capture the significant day-to-day temperature changes, instead providing a more "flat" temperature forecast.
(This portion written last Saturday.) Most Twin Cities weather outlets were calling for a nearly unfathomable week of unseasonable warmth ahead, beginning with today. There was consensus that Saturday would be a record breaker and most forecasts suggested that records were in major jeopardy for Sunday (record of 61), Tuesday (record of 66) and Wednesday (record of 62). Records for Thursday and Friday appeared to be in some jeopardy as well, though forecaster consensus was not as unanimous. WCCO appears to be the most bullish on week-long record warmth.
If you'd like to play along at home, here's the weather forecaster scorecard (forecasts obtained online at noon on Saturday):
|WCCO forecast presented by Matt Brickman|
Today's (sat) has already bit the dustReplyDelete
CANNOT WAIT! Sum-sum-summertime! Looks like staying in town for spring break this year was the smartest decision I ever made!!!ReplyDelete
@Bill any chance you can move my last comment from the last post over to this one(not that computer savvy to do it myself)I believe the question goes hand in hand with this post,Thanks Big DaddyReplyDelete
@big daddy, here you go:ReplyDelete
Heres one for all you research peeps,since we are still technically in winter,what is the longest stretch of above freezing temps in any given winter season at MSP in terms of hours/days,looking at all the going 7 day forecasts and even ones that go further(accuweather/weather.com/wunderground)I dont see a time that we fall below freezing after this morning going out at least 15 days,remarkable!Winter and everything that goes with it is over in my books,starting this morning spring cleaning is the name of the game,inside and outside,this was a sad year to be a snow lover like myself.
@ Big Daddy,ReplyDelete
Interesting question. To be 100% accurate one should have hourly observations for the past century, which I am sure the NWS has stored somewhere, but I don't.
All I can look at is simply the high and low for any given day since record started, and counting the days in a row where low and high were above freezing.
Will do meteorological winter ( dec 1- mar 1) and write on this post as soon as I have an answer...
(Well) above normal temps are a lock through Friday.ReplyDelete
@ Big DaddyReplyDelete
Found 3 streaks of 6 and half days (NWS hourly obs would be nice to have to determine the actual longest).
Dec 5 - Dec 11 1894 (temp went above freezing during the day on the 5th and did not go below freezing until dec 12)
Avg temp during the period 38.9F
Feb 18 - Feb 24 1930 (temp went above freezing during the day on the 18th and did not go below freezing until Feb 25)
Avg temp during the period 46.3F
Feb 14 - Feb 20 1998 (temp went above freezing during the day on the 14th and did not go below freezing until Feb 21)
Avg temp during the period 38.4F
Not surprisingly the least snowy winter ever (1930-31) is part of it.
Are you a SQL jedi master or did you find that exact info somewhere?
I am a statistician and weather enthusiast, and keep track of all weather data since record are taken in a big dataset which I can then interrogate as appropriate.Delete
I have compiled through a variety of sources but mostly the NWS and Minnesota climate office.
Anyone else get a little sun-burned on Saturday? Amazing. Kids were doing snow angels last weekend and this weekend all the summer gear gets used - bikes, bats, jump rope, etc.ReplyDelete
@Rigil Kent thank you very much for that research,needless to say we have already put 24hrs towards that with yesterdays temps,regardless of the fact you don't have hourly obs and you did meteorological winter(ended March 1st)this stretch of weather/temps coming will easily crush and surpass 6 1/2 days with it still being 'winter' on the calendar,especially with the NWS in their discussion this morning calling it a heat wave for March standards with everyday beyond Monday at or above 70 degrees is forecasted by them,saying also that everyday could set a record. @Bill still think those 3 inches of snow is going to happen?even after next weekend forecasts are calling for possible severe weather with temps still in the 50-60 range,I don't see anything resembling freezing on the maps,maybe April will bring us our biggest snow,LMAO!ReplyDelete
As far as severe weather goes. I don't believe the GFS around the 180hr to 216hr, it breaks down the surface ridge way to fast. The Euro is showing it's bias by stalling out the 500mb low over the SW US and taking it's time ejecting it to the NE. I think the proper solution is somewhere in between. The GFS to fast, the Euro to slow. When the Eastern surface ridge starts to break down it will be most notable over the mid to south Mississippi Valley, that will use up most of the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and we will be left with some rain, but not enough to break our drought. I really thought that we may have a chance at severe Wx around the 17th to 21st, but I getting more and more convinced that will not happen. As a matter of fact I wonder if we will get much precip at all.Delete
I would not be surprised if there were multiple severe weater outbreaks along with this heat wave. I believe this March will be a Severe and stormy one. I will say this:ReplyDelete
I will expect twentey tornados in the viewing area, split into the following catigories:
bemaki: we are at odds with each other, it will be interesting to see what happens that's for sure!!!Delete
That is humorous.Delete
I said it before, and I will say it again. It wouldn't shock me in the least if we had our first severe weather (doesn't have to be an outbreak...just some warned boomers) before March ends. GFS has been cranking up an active pattern down the stretch with that big trough out west. What would normally be big snowstorms for us given their origin from the southwest may very well end up turning to severe thunderstorms instead. I'm looking forward to seeing how things play out once that trough moves off to the east. At the very least, we should have a couple shots at seeing some garden variety thunderstorms in the final week or two of March. Until then, lets get through our little rain event Monday and enjoy the rest of the week! Not sure if anyone saw, but our temps on Saturday were a good 20 degrees warmer than the temps in Texas were. Nature is spoiling us now...question is when do we pay for it.ReplyDelete
@big daddy the temp at midnight Fri/Sat. Morning jumped to 34 degrees,so if your keeping score that's 48+ hours above freezing so farReplyDelete
I'm locked and loaded for a severe weather outbreak over portions of the Upper Mississippi River Valley this weekend and into next week. All indications point towards a strong and active warm front stalling over so. MN from Sat-Tue. Plus, a triple-point will likely develop near so. MN early next week as a powerful disturbance finally pulls out of the SW.ReplyDelete
My biggest concern is with flooding rains. However, if Dew Points rise to near or in excess of 60 degrees, we may very well experience a significant Severe Weather outbreak. The reason my confidence is so high is due to the ridge over the east coast that is stubborn. This pattern is perfect for Gulf moisture & warmth to surge north into MN. Combine this with the typically cool air aloft and.....
After having casually monitored the discussion here all winter long and experienced one of the worst winters I can remember (snow lover here) and now having 70s and 80s coming our way this early in the season... it begs the question... WTF is happening out there?ReplyDelete
Is this just random strange happenings or is 2012 really our last year of existence.
The way things are setting up it seems like it will be 130 degrees every day this summer.
And with the way we're getting more light every day soon it'll be light for 24 hours straight!Delete
Maybe even more than that!Delete
DD is all over the warmth,his 7 day is littered with 70's,in fact he has 70's starting out next week as well,it is getting too warm too fast we are still in winter according to the calendar,since Saturday this will go down as the warmest stretch of weather for any winter....Duane,Novak, Randyinchamplin,Bemaki do you guys see any cooling or is the freezing temps done?ReplyDelete
Who invited doomsday anonymous to the show,really:ReplyDelete
-130 degrees everyday
-2012 our last year of existence
Come on get a grip!
@MW I'm thinking he wasn't being that serious. It's certainly off-the-charts warm.Delete
haha, wow, you must be a riot at parties.Delete
@big daddy...sorry there's nothing in the foreseeable future that would hint at temps near freezing. We look to stay above average right through the next couple weeks. As we head into April, the MJO continues its trek through phase 6 into phase 7. This particular phase isn't quite as far above normal over such a large area so temps may not be as far above norm...but I think they stay near normal to maybe slightly above norm. The CFS version 2 seems to support this theory as well. I know nature can throw curves at us, but I'm feeling pretty confident we are done with snow until next Nov or Dec (at least any big snow lol)ReplyDelete
@Duane,thanks...I wasnt asking for the cooling for potentially more snow,oh I'm over that,I to believe we are done with snow till November,just was wondering when we could bring the annuals in for sale and not have to worry about freezing temps,it would be just my luck once we bring in tender vegetation it will get cold again.ReplyDelete
@big daddy...that's always a good question, and I believe I always heard a good time frame for that is Memorial Day...although this year appears to be much sooner than that.ReplyDelete
I'm thinking May 15 is the safe day, but don't quote me on it.Delete
I don't know about you weather enthusiasts out there but I have to admit (and I would never have thought I would say this as I am snow and winter lover) it looks and feels so nice outside.ReplyDelete
I mean, yes, a nice snowstorm is always welcome, but it looks wonderful out. I am fine to wait until November if this is trade-off...
For MSP, what's the most number of high temperature records broken in a two-week period at any given time throughout the year? This recent warm stretch must be at the top of that list with five so far and maybe three more?ReplyDelete
Weather is so unpredictable! And thanks god, March was pretty good this year. I really missed warmth.ReplyDelete