Saturday, February 19, 2011

Bet the House Money: Big Snowstorm on the Way Per Forecasters

During the day Saturday, most forecasters upped their snowfall estimates for tomorrow's snow event, although a few lowered them slightly by late in the afternoon. As of late afternoon/early evening, here's what the forecasters were thinking (totals in red are the most recent; the strikethrough font provides some historical perspective ).

We'll provide a cleaned-up, final, pre-storm post after the late news.

Screen capture from KSTP's Sat. a.m. weather webcast.
WCCO: 8-12 10-13
KSTP: 10-15 9-14 6-13 (even more just south of metro)
Fox: 10-14 8 to 12 (14 in some spots)
KARE: 8-14 6-10
Strib: 8-14 12-16 10-15 7 to 12 inches (highest amounts in northwest metro)
NWS: 10-14 10-13
MPR: 10-17 6-12

If you'd like to see the historical progression of forecasts for this storm (by forecaster), check here. Check back for updates or follow us on Twitter and Facebook to get the latest on how the forecasters see this evolving "snow event."

17 comments:

  1. Bill- thanks for keeping us all honest! As I'm looking at the morning computer models, I'm becoming increasingly confident in the higher end (i.e. 13") of my range and increasingly convinced that 6" totals will probably be way too low, at least in the Metro. I'll probably ramp up totals for the evening newscasts. Now leaning towards 9-14" Metro...maybe 10-15"?

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  2. Bill-I have noticed most outlets are telling us the heavist snow will fall south--like near me here in Red Wing--but Paul Douglas seems to be fixed on the heaviest falling in the Northwest Metro, near Brainard. Just an observation...

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  3. my forecast for the metro based on NAM,GFS info from bufkit and a hand calculation from the euro based on temp profiles and QPF's.. Most of the metro will see amounts in excess of 15". However that could still be conservative as the GFS and NAM are showing 20+ on bufkit before compaction. So much will depend on Temps, a drop of 3-4° from the current forecast will make all the difference

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  4. to add one more thing, the Sref plume shows a mean of 17" at the airport. The Sref is made up of 21 members plus the mean, only 6 of the members are below the mean, with the vast majority clustered between 18" and 24", the reason the mean is so low is because 2 of the members show less than 4"

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  5. Randyinchmaplin...where do you expect the heaviest to fall?

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  6. Like I said in other post somewhere near the metro will have an 20 inch total,thanks for all the numbers randyinchamplin. Paul Douglas is eating that crow,when he says I DO NOT believe we see a foot of snow and storm fizzles,yes he did write,cuz i made a comment on it earlier in the week so it is on record and I trust bill will use it all in his grading.

    Can't wait for the radar to light up!

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  7. well, I may have to "eat my no 20 inches" comment earlier. This is looking like a monster, WV loop0 is impressive with the jet stream interaction. Hope the ice stays away. Cool that Chikage commented....just seen her forecast and she's thinking 12 - 18 with maybe 20 around Wabasha.

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  8. Monster is coming,looking at latest WVI WE DONT GET LESS THEN 16"

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  9. Mark, that is impossible to tell at this point....ranges are the best anyone can do at this time, all of this depends on where the heavy bands will set up. Sorry don't mean to be harsh, but that the truth

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  10. PD has shifted everything north again...20+ across middle of state...

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  11. Regardless of whether it is 8, 12, or 20 inches, it is a living nightmare, especially this winter which has moved way beyond "getting on the nerves". I can't believe there are people who like this weather, but I guess "to each his own". I was just finally relaxing into finally seeing some patches of bare grass again after 3 months, jeez. And the 10-15 day temperature models are showing a below average trend with the jet stream staying south, so no significant melting/thaw is in sight like the short break we just had. Sigh.

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  12. Just discovered this website tonite (from a link on WCCO). Love the concept of comparing the forecasts across the media outlets. Thanks for doing this.

    It'll be "fun" watching what actually happens tomorrow and Monday.

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  13. Thanks for the nice feedback, mn_me!

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  14. is their a chance that west central minnesota gets 6+ inches?

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  15. where do i go to look at these raidars?

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  16. Go to the raidar room, just down the hall from the main phaser control center and next to the warp drive nacelles.

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