Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The Dog Days of Winter

As we move into February, the weather is doing its own Groundhog Day routine. The weather seems to be stuck like a needle on a record, playing dry, warm weather over and over again.

Use this space to discuss any changes you see coming down the pike.

TMF's CEO took this picture of a bee picking over faded blossoms of a rosemary plant in northern Virginia (outside of DC) on Feb. 1. Unbelievable!!!

147 comments:

  1. Good quote from local news last night: "this weather makes it feel like I'm living in another state... one that I don't like..."

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  2. It doesn't matter what Punxsutawney Phil says on Thursday morning, because 6 more weeks of THIS winter is basically spring anyway!

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  3. It will be the first of February here in a few hours. Unfortunately I am now going to officially wave the white flag on this season. The Heat Miser won. For us winter/snow lovers this season has been as miserable as last season was great. A miracle won't even help us now. Even during cold and snowy winters the temperatures really start to moderate around mid-March. Yes, we could possibly have a big snowstorm, but it will just melt away...just like I recall from all of those so called "winters" while growing up back East. Let's face it, the weather would have to now make an immediate 180 degree turn and remain that way through at least mid-March in order for us to have any semblance of winter. In my opinion, this season (I refuse to refer to it as winter) has been a great bust and disappointment based upon the fact that it's not a "real winter" and the fact that most of the local and national mets gave us great hope when they came out with their winter forecast last October. I recall that a met with Inaccurate Weather even commented that people will want to move out of Chicago after this winter. I guess he was referring to people that like cold and snow. Yeah, we were all told to batten down the hatches and prepare for Old Man Winter's Wrath. Apparently that was the forecast for Alaska, not here. Psychologically, we prepared for the Muhammad Ali-like winter punch. We tensed up, closed our eyes, clinched our jaws and waited to be clobbered...but it never came. Unlike avoiding a punch from a professional boxer, we found ourselves not relieved, but rather deeply disappointed. Many of us are disappointed winter didn't show up, but we are also disappointed that the mets' predictions let us down. Come October we will be uncertain as to how much stock to place in the predictions for the coming winter, no matter what the prediction. It just goes to show that million dollar machines and advanced technology can still only take us so far in the weather prediction business. In closing, I pray to Mother Nature to at least show us some mercy and fast forward to Spring so our tortured souls can finally be released. Until next season, my friends. Sadly, The Snow Meiser...

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  4. Fantastic post Snow Meiser. I concur.

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  5. been away for a few days, looks like I missed a good discussion. Have not seen a weather model since Saturday night. Looking at the Euro 31/12z run I am seeing some tell tale sings that it want's to start lifting the southern jet further north, and cutting off a upper level low that transitions from the southern plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley, while at the same time lifting the northern jet way to our north...If I'm right this pattern will ebb and flow through the end of March into mid June. This pattern could produce a big winter storm somewhere in the upper Midwest from March 1 to March 15th. Yet at the same time it could bring drought busting storms to our area during the early spring from April 1st to June 1st, just leave the severe to our south.

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  6. Well, at least the space weather has been interesting. At this point my sad snowmobiles probably won't get much attention and I'm already looking forward to (hopefully) some spring storms to liven things up.

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  7. @randyinchamplin if that southern jet does indeed head north, i can't see how we don't see severe weather this spring. i must say i do NOT think the US in general will see the spring like last year with record amount of death and ef-4s and ef-5s around every corner. we need some good precip in the upper midwest. this drought could get out of hand if we have a dry spring.

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  8. A couple things...first of all there is going to be a major winter storm in the central plains (Nebraska, Kansas, eastern Iowa...maybe more) starting as early as Thursday evening and lasting right into the weekend. Some places will be measuring snow in feet rather than inches. This would be a welcome sight to snow lovers up here, but it still looks like the system will lose most of its punch by the time it can get anywhere close to here. However...the foreign models are still trying to hold things together a little longer than previous forecasts showed. This could potentially bring a wintery mix to extreme southern MN if that happened. In a typical year, this would be the typical making of a panhandle hook storm, but again there are factors that are keeping the system from holding strength. I am interested to see how things end up playing out when all is said and done with this one. Second, I agree with Anon in regards to not thinking the US will see a spring like last year. It is such a rare occurrence for something like that to happen, with many factors coming into play. Last year, our excessive snow pack and colder than normal temps along with the warm summer air trying to build north created a pretty impressive temperature contrast. That, and the active jet from a stronger La Nina created the perfect ingredients. Unless something epic happens, we obviously won't have the snow we did last year for as late as we did, and this years La Nina is much weaker so the jet shouldn't be as strong. On that note, I am anticipating a fairly active severe season late spring and early summer, but nothing close to last year. While I love storms as much as the next person, people across Alabama, Arkansas, etc could really use a break.

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  9. You gotta love the GFS & NAM. Each model is printing out over a foot of snow for northern IA on Saturday. The 06z NAM cranks-out nearly 20" for Mason City! Seriously? C'Mon man!

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  10. Isn't it going to be too warm?! It looks like it might not even get below freezing between Thurs-Sat in NE and southern IA.

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  11. Snow Meiser well said,couldn't have said it better,totally get what your saying about the east coast being an eastcoaster myself......@Novak how is it possibe that Mason City sees 20 inches and nothing at MSP......last look at euro was moving closer to metro

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  12. @big daddy - give Novak a few hours to reply. I'm guessing he's fallen on the floor laughing hysterically at what's the US models are showing him :-D

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  13. Yep, I'm laughing hysterically because the NAM solution was absurd. However, I feel for all forecasters because model data has been so misleading for so long. How many times do we have to tell ourselves to ignore the model data? Isn't it suppose to be the other way around?

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  14. the 18z nam is inching further north!! we're coming! we're coming! objects in the mirror maybe closer than they appear!

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  15. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 1, 2012 at 4:53 PM

    Anon @ 1:54. That's what I'm talkin' about! That is the spirit. I love the mirror comment. I just don't think it can get that far north to affect us significantly, but you never know. It is only Wednesday. A lot can happen. C'mon, Novak and others--don't let the fact that we all got burned other times affect your hope/passion/prayer for a storm!!

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  16. Wow, you guys think the weather is wacked in MN... in northern Virginia where it was in the low 70s (normal high is low 40s). Saw a huge bee raiding flower remnants (see pic with this post), hardy pansies that are still thriving and hints of spring growth. I gotta tell ya, if you're not getting snowstorms, this is a better way to live!

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  17. @Plymouth-NWS has added flurries back to the forecast for Saturday,"signs" that the snow maybe moving a further north,also Dave Dahl blog leaves the possibility open in his blog....it seems slim but the door isn't shut yet.

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  18. speaking of record players, I have jeoparody theme song stuck in my head, thanks to the weather.

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  19. NAM definitely bringing things closer to metro,Euro drying things up over Minnesota/Wisconsin,GFS keeps everything south.....we'll see how things shake out on tommorrow's models.

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  20. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 1, 2012 at 10:51 PM

    The nam has to be right one time this winter, right? Still time. What are the models saying now?

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  21. The 18Z GFS is saying 0.10in next Tuesday morning and 0.18in next Thursday morning.

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  22. In my complete and total boredom I decided to draw up some map stuff with the GFS data in regards to this system. The trough that will develop the system is now onshore, so hopefully model runs get a little better. Here's how the 00z GFS initialized, with the trough pointed out.

    http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/500init.gif

    As the low continues to strengthen it will become somewhat cut off, and something known as a "rex block" will form, as noted by the backwards S in the upper level flow. When these blocks form, it will take some time for the low to get moved out. High pressure moves in from Canada as well, and that will be the big factor in the storm staying south of us. This is shown in the next map.

    http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/500mb48hour.gif

    As the low continues to move ENE, it will weaken and get caught up in the southern jet as a split flow looks to develop. High pressure will continue to move in and keep most of us dry, as long as that high moves in as the models currently show.

    http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/500mb84hour.gif

    Deviations in the high pressure will have an impact on how this system moves, but it still appears as though it is a miss to the south. I still find it amazing how the precip shield is going strong, and it hits MN and just dries up. This one had promise, but the way it looks now it wasn't meant to be. Maybe tomorrow's forecast runs will have a major shift, but I'm not getting my hopes up on that one. I hope I looked at those maps correctly, as I still have a pretty amateur eye, but like I said I was bored. We may not see a big enough change in things now until late Feb, but that could certainly change too.

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  23. Well folks(especially Plymouth Weather Lover)as Duane said above this storm is a non event for us,and it sucks watching all the watches,warnings,and blizzard watches flying south of us,all the overnight models have taken this storm south of Minnesota now,if you want snow all you need to do is travel a mere 158 miles,that is the distance between Minneaplois(no snow) and Spencer,Iowa(farthest north city under a winter storm watch),man this winter is pathetic,I wish we hadnt broken the least snow record so we had something to look forward to,I hate admitting this but I hope spring gets here sooner rather then later and is not delayed with snow and cold thru April(which I can see happening since our winter was non-existent)

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  24. WHO'S IN? Who would like to board the next plane to Goodland,Kansas with me....where starting at midnight tonight they will be under a Blizzard Warning for 42 straight hours(thats right I said 42hrs)they are expecting snowfall of 14-16 inches or more according to the NWS. WOW! While we seat here in pea soup fog.

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    1. @bigdaddy, If you go will this stop you from B&$#&^%g about the weather?

      If so I will pay for your gas! Semper Fi!

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  25. @Ralph,dont be such an A*&!Thats what we do here talk about the weather,I was just poking some fun at our depressing winter,obviously you have a dry sense of humor.Good day.

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  26. @Duane..nice job on the maps, I see the overnight run of the gfs as well as the 2/0z run of the ECMWF have backed way off on the snow in Iowa, nam is still to strong. I thought the models were not handling the effect of the ne winds rounding the high pressure as well as they should

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  27. Looks like we have 6 more weeks of "winter"!

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  28. Shall we give up on this winter???

    Looking at stats only 31 winters had 14.9 or less inches of snow at the end of January.

    These winters averaged 28.1 inches of snow in the end.

    The snowiest was 1939-40, which ended up with 45.1 inches. It had 10.4 at the end of January but then it unleashed a 25.6-inch March.

    Will history repeat itself?

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  29. Unbelievable! Well, this season it is actually believable.

    How do you think the poor weather forecasters in northeastern NE & much of IA feel today? They've gone from hoisting Watches and predicting a blizzard for Friday & Saturday to bone dry within 2 model runs. Just another example of how absurd the guidance has been this season. The upper air structure over the Plains and Midwest looks like a frickin' spaghetti plot. How can you accurately forecast in this type of environment?

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    1. Looks like the only area in IA that could have a warning hoisted for it will be west of I35, and south of I80 and confidence in that is only average at this time. That high pressure area works just as well as my clothes dryer..LOL

      The 8-10 day is even worse, the GFS has full latitude trough east of the Rockies, the ECMWF is in a very fast warm zonal flow at the same time, and neither one is conducive for a major storm over MN,WI and the Dakotas. *SIGH*

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    2. However the 02/0z gfs ensemble mean is not as strong as the operational, but still quite impressive for ensemble mean that far out.

      http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

      however if we are not going to get a snowstorm I say bring on a early spring!!!, but please bring moisture with it!

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  30. Yet another run of models, and still not even a blip on the map...truely amazing. The only thing really worth noting in the long term is the push of cold air the Euro has a week from today. Highs in the low teens, lows below zero (colder further north), but that is still a week away. The snooze fest continues. Nebraska will have fun digging out from their 12+ inches of snow.

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  31. @Novak, this amateur eye needs to ask you a question. Given the fact that this high pressure system is taking so long to move to the east, and the cloud deck has seemed to actually move west during the day causing yet another evening of dense fog. Have I detected a slight shit northward with the heavy snow on both the 18z GFS and NAM? and could it be possible that the northern end of the deformation snows will approach the IA/MN border once again? Just curious about your thoughts.

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  32. 18z did shift things north with the NAM and GFS, but still keeps it south of MN. The furthest it makes it north would be the Highway 18 cooridor in Iowa. Sioux City (maybe a bit further north than that) will be the cut off according to the 18z run. Good luck Nebraska...RPM model prints out over 2 feet for pockets of Nebraska...eesh.

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  33. It seems as if the NWS expects higs of near forty nearly every day for the forseable future. The end? indefinate. I belive it is the end of a winter that never reall got going, and spring has arrived.

    The strawberries are starting to grow in my garden

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  34. please take the 18z and 06z models with a grain of salt. those runs do not take all the observation and sounding data that the 00 and 12z runs do, so usually (but not all the time) the 18z and 06z runs tend to be a little "off".

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  35. @bemaki,temps down to near freezing by Tuesday,still above normal but at least closer to average,cold enough to support snow if we ever get any.

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  36. Here's a major storm for you from our friends over at Accuweather for Feb.14-16,within those 3 days temps will go from low 40's to low 20's with .13" of rain,followed by .79" of ice/sleet,and then topped with 3.5" of snow for the Minneapolis viewing area,check it out for yourself,by morning it will be gone with mostly sunny skies forecasted,dont you love how accuweather can put such detailed numbers on a 15-day forecast!

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  37. @Anon 12:14am,we all know that wont pan out,but if it does sounds like snuggly good time with a loved one for the valentine's holiday!

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  38. Had to show this to you guys. This is a quote that PD included in his latest blog post, and I really think it sums up weather forecasting perfectly!

    "The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it." - Patrick Young

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  39. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 3, 2012 at 10:07 AM

    Something HAS TO happen before this winter is over--it just has to. I will take any hint of a storm right now. A hint will get me thinking there is at least something on the radar, if only the radar in my head!! Wouldn't that be something, if the pattern changes and we end up even with an average snowfall winter?? Hope, baby, hope!!

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    1. That is what happened / is happening in Europe. Non-existent winter until this week and then all of a sudden more than half of Europe under 20+ inches of snow.
      So there is still hope.

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  40. You all need to go read Paul Huttner's blog/post from last night(www.mpr.org,then Updraft blog page)he pokes some serious fun about Inacuweather's winter forecast for our area,its a good read.........@at Plymouth you sound as desperate as I am for snow,hope can go so far,but reality is this winter bites.

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  41. I really hesitate to say this, but there is some support for ACCU's forecast for V-day. The monthly control run of the ECMWF shows a major storm for our area. (that really doesn't mean much). I use that only to see if there are trends out there to be seen, but it does show a trough over the inter mountain west, and a strong ridge over the east coast. So is there any evidence to back it up? Both the GFS and ECMWF operational runs show the NAO going in the tank, but not their ensembles, the Gem operational also shows this. Just for good measure the CFS v2 also shows blocking over Greenland. The ECMWF and it's ensembles show the PNA dropping from positive to negative. The 03/12z run of the GFS operational shows a storm over us as well, but the ridge out east and the trough out west are not as strong, so its shows a weaker system.

    So in a nut shell there is a chance and hope is still alive, but with this winter who knows? As the song goes "you got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them." At this time I'm holding them close, and preparing the snow dance, but the dance floor is not in full focus yet.

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  42. Hate to tell you guys... but snow (with rain) is likely here in Northern Virginia, site of 72 degrees on Wednesday. This place averages exactly what MSP has accumulated this year... about 14.5 inches. Course they've only had 1.7 so it's been an off year everywhere.

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    1. I saw that Bill

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  43. WOW what a 12hr flip by the ECMWF between the 9-14th, some snow for the Upper Great Lakes Region, the east coast and SE Canada and than it just drills the entire eastern 2/3rds of the country with a cross polar blast, and not just for a day or two but maybe 4-5 days. Of course it comes in dry here.

    Hopefully it's just hick up in the model, it sometimes loses its way for 12hrs. In the mean time...Dealer, I will take 3 new cards..LM*O

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  44. Randy,
    Sorry for not responding earlier. This storm never had a chance in hell of hitting MN because the GFS hyped it. :) Anonymous hit it on the nose when it comes to the 18z & 06z model runs, you simply can't trust them as much as the 00z & 12z runs. Plus, I don't trust anything that the GFS/NAM tries to sell us right now. These models need to develop some consistency and hit a few forecasts before I start believing in them.

    With that being said, I'm placing more weight on the Euro runs than ever before. If what the 12z Euro says is true, we are going to be shivering our A$$es off here by next weekend with brown dirt to show for it. What a buzz kill.

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  45. OK, I know you guys probably don't care that much about this since, after all, this is a Minnesota weather blog... but if it makes snowlovers feel better, they are most definitely not alone. Consider this from the DC weather blog: "Before this one, just 18 of 124 winters on record (back to 1887-88) witnessed 1.7” or less snow through the end of January. All of this year’s total came in January and it’s been characterized by many as the winter without a winter. But, will that continue?"

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  46. @ Anon(2/3,12:14)Accuweather's new updated forecast for Feb.14-16:
    temps 34-44,sunny to partly cloudy all 3 days,.00" of precip
    WHAT A JOKE!!!!!I knew they would do a total 180,can anyone tell me a good reason why they put out a 15 day forecast?

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  47. Winter wonderland,close by,good for you Nebraska and Iowa,your neighbors up north here Minnesota are very jealous.

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  48. These models can't seem to grasp anything beyond 3 days (and that's even being generous), why would I believe there's going to be a major storm for V-Day at this point

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  49. The ECMWF and GFS seem to be advertising (if you can believe them) a Hudson Bay Low to towards the end of next week, bringing more winter-like temeperatures into the area for a brief time.

    ECMWF: http://img864.imageshack.us/img864/9628/usatmp850mb180.gif

    GFS: http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/1189/usatmp850mb135b.gif

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    1. Ryan the ECMWF ensembles would add some credence to that

      http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPNA168.gif

      and all the guidance now shows a strongly positive PNA and negative EPO which favors ridging over the west and troughs over the east, our best chance for snow during the next 10 days would be a weak clipper system, but even that seems remote.

      I think why the models have been under preforming is that the SOI values have been all over the board. Is La Nina trying to loosen her grip?

      http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

      During Dec they were running strongly positive than went to negative in early Jan which corresponded to the brief cold snap in Jan.

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  50. Something, anything, just to get me out of the fog!!!

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  51. the last time I checked in on the V-day storm I asked the dealer for 3 new cards, one of them was good. The 04/12z operational of the ECMWF is showing a ridge popping up to our east with a trough to the west. The problem is the ridge is to far west, it needs to move about 200 miles to the east. So I'm going to ask the dealer for two more cards, the two good ones would be #1 moving the ridge further east, and #2 dropping the closed low at 500mb over the MN/Dakota border to manufacturer it's own cold air.

    the black lines are the surface pressure and the red is the 500mb heights, notice that that 500mb ridge is over the western great lakes, that needs to move east, but look at the closed low over the ND/Canada border at the 500mb height. If every thing could shift east just a bit we would be in business. Right now it shows rain. Confidence of course is very low at this time, but still.....

    http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_12/GZ_PN_240_0000.gif

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  52. now I agree that the off runs of the GFS and Nam are not as reliable as the 0z and 12z but I do use them to show trends, keep in mind that the GFS is almost always to progressive this far out so the times don't match up, but the 18z GFS is trending towards the ECMWF solution.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20120204/18/gfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    I'm still holding my cards close to the vest.

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  53. ECMWF is starting to show that clipper train that novak mentioned...

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  54. to all your weather lovers out there, a 25 yr old person named Andy Gabrielson who was a prolific storm chaser has passed away today in a tragic car accident. He wasn't on this earth long, but what he did with his life may have saved countless others that were in the path of a tornado. From what I can tell it was not a accident involving other storm chaser's, so please don't blame it on his chasing activities. By the way he is from MN. This is what the spotter network out of Kansas did for him...RIP Andy.


    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/AG.png

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  55. @bemaki the clipper that Novak mentioned??? where did you see that? haven't seen it here. Twitter maybe? Just curios is all

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  56. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 5, 2012 at 1:08 AM

    Paul Douglas hinting at a possible pattern shift and snowstorm two weeks out. I know it is too far out, but I don't care. Let the speculation begin and bring it on. It is more exciting than any 7 day forecast I have seen!!

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  57. Two weeks out...with the winter we have been having? I guess he must be taking the 18z GFS seriously lol. One thing appears pretty certain and that is that we'll be getting colder. Right now, the question will be how cold. If you believe the European model, most of central and southern MN, as well as western WI will be seeing highs in the mid teens for a couple days, with the worst of the cold air missing well to the east/northeast. Euro warms us right back up though with maybe another little push of cold air (and snow?) at the very end of its run. The GFS, on the other hand, is much more aggressive with the arctic push, with two waves of colder air coming in for the coming week. The second push of cold air would be worse than the first one (highs maybe in the single digits for 4-5 days?) This would have the coldest temps Thur thru maybe Sun. Below I posted a couple maps the 00z GFS run has. Given the strat warming that happened a couple weeks ago over the north pole, I am more inclined to believe the GFS as opposed the the Euro, and it is not very often I do that. I am a big believer in the European forecast model during our winter months, but the GFS may win out with this one. Here's the maps:

    Cold front 1 (Mon afternoon): http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/Coldfrnt1.gif

    Cold front 2 (Thurs morn): http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/Coldfrnt2.gif

    Next weekend (Brrr): http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/Coldairsettlesin.gif

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  58. Won't be as cold as it could be,no snowcover means at least 10 degrees warmer!

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  59. Another cloudy day and another bust in the temperature dept,what is that 4-5 days in a row of incorrect temps,anyone keeping tracking,it was suppose to be 40+ today instead its been stuck at 29 for hours

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  60. And big daddy...the sun was supposed to come out yesterday AND today. WRONG again!

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  61. I'm going to give it about 10 more forecast runs before putting a lot of thought into it, but that active pattern we have been waiting for all winter just may start to show up come the end of NEXT week (not the upcoming work week). GFS and Euro do look to get a bit more of a wavy look in their jet pattern, but as I said before it is going to take a LOT of consistency in the models before I take it serious. It is just wayyy too far out to get excited about (if you happen to like snow), and given our pattern this season it wouldn't shock me to see everything just go away. I guess...we'll see :)

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  62. After a great super bowl football game we now have the super bowl of weather models. The GFS and the Euro could not be much further apart in their solutions for the time frame just after Valentines Day. The Euro has been setting this up for the last couple of days, now it's on the map.

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/00zeuro500mbHGHTNA240.gif

    notice how strong the upper level ridge is over the eastern US, also notice the strong surface low over the Texas area, with a closed upper level low just to its west. If I'm reading this right and the ECMWF would verify, this storm would have no choice but to follow the western edge of the upper level ridge.

    now for the GFS

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/00zgfs500mbHGHTNA240.gif

    completely different solution.

    For weather lovers and model watchers, this is as good as it's gotten this year. Speculation is running rampart out there!!! lets see who wins!!!

    Images curtsey of Allan Huffman @ americanwx

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  63. is the GFS backing off on the western ridge?? time will tell

    yesterday's 12z run

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

    last nights 0z run

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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  64. Granted, it is 6-10 days out, but I really like the snow set-up for much of next week over the Upper Midwest. Jet doesn't appear to be split and it becomes quite active over the U.S. with deep troughs and a coupled structure at times.

    Best of all, the main branch of the jet stays well south of MN which would keep Arctic air in place for snow.

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  65. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 6, 2012 at 4:59 PM

    There we go...more snow potential talk. I seriously do love the talk and really hope it results in a significant/substantial snow soon. When Novak, Randy, and Dave Dahl mention changes coming, I am all ears. Keep it coming. Stay positive, people!!

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  66. Good luck forecasters, once again I will be out of town w/o computer access for the next 1-5 days, dealing with family issues, I will be staying at a place that has no computers nor internet access. Have fun with what I think will be a major pattern change. Winter may not be over yet!!!

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  67. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 6, 2012 at 8:20 PM

    Good luck with whatever is going on, randyinchamplin!!

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  68. The forecast as we head into the end of Feb and to start March right now looks just downright frustrating. Trying to forecast with any certainty that far out is difficult, but at this point I want to call it impossible. First off, the oscillations are all doing things that make this difficult, and if there is someone out there that is truly familiar with how the oscillations work, I want to hear their take on it. First, the AO is forecast to stay negative for the most part, but a gradual trend towards neutral is showing up. Negative AO = colder pattern...positive = warm. Even with the AO trending upwards, it still remains negative. Next, we have the NAO. Typically if the AO and NAO are both negative, we are pretty much expected to see Arctic air spill into the US. The NAO, however is positive and is forecast to perhaps even go higher into the positives. Positive NAO usually means warmer weather for us. So...which one wins out here? The last factor here I wanted to point out is the MJO. This has 8 different phases, and the phase we have been in most of this winter has been a warm phase. This is now heading towards a cold phase, and is forecast to be well within that cold phase by the middle of Feb. So...do two colds cancel out the warm? I am trying to find good details about this stuff online, so that I can get a better understanding of it. This is the best website I have found so far when it comes to discussing the different oscillations and their effects.

    http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html

    On a final note...typically a negative AO will provide us with colder weather, and a positive NAO will have ridging in the east, and a trough in the west (just what we need to get storms to track in this direction, as long as the ridge is far enough east). However, a positive is the exact opposite...trough east and ridge west. This is all just too much for my brain to handle...but I will continue studying what I can (meaning what I actually understand). Ok, I'm done now. I hope this 20 minute long post didn't bore too many people.

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  69. @Plymouth Weather Lover,chew on this "No significant precipitation or major storms over the next seven days",this is the last line on the NWS discussion page for the county forecast area valid this morning,translation get over it(winter was a no show all season and it continues to be a no show)get out your rake and prep the lawn for spring!

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  70. It would be foolish to get too specific at this juncture when forecasting the rest of this winter season. So, I believe it is justified to simply look at the overall trend for the next 10 days and no further.

    The good news is that Arctic air will be in place between now and next weekend. None of the medium range models are forecasting any major warm-up for the Upper Midwest. We have experienced a sustained Arctic outbreak all season, so this is certainly good news for snow lovers.

    Also, the jet turns more west/southwest rather than straight from the northwest or no movement at all. This should provide an opportunity for disturbances to gather strength within a trough pattern out west.

    Finally, as we head towards the latter half of FEB and into MARCH, cold air usually equates to snow since moisture is more readily available due to the increasing strength of the sun and the return flow from the Gulf.

    With all that being said, the #1 key factor is Arctic air. I know this sounds crazy after what we've experienced these last several months, but we are due for a prolonged Arctic outbreak.

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  71. As expected, 12z Euro is starting to look rather interesting for early next week. Arctic air in place, trough digging over the Rockies, moisture return flow from the Gulf and a low pulling out into the northern Plains.

    Keep your fingers crossed.

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  72. I found this interesting...hot off the AP wires. I know it's Iowa, but still it is interesting:

    DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- This is one strange winter for Iowans because of the unusually warm temperatures and lack of snowfall and it may be one for the record books.

    The National Weather Service says the Des Moines airport has yet to dip to zero. Meteorologist Kevin Deitsch says it's the first time in 134 years of winter records that temperatures at the airport haven't fallen to zero.

    He says it's because Des Moines doesn't have much snow on the ground, which means temperatures don't drop quite as low.

    Iowa is now tied with the winter of 1918 for the warmest average temperature since the beginning of the meteorological winter on Dec. 1. The average is 31.6 through Monday.

    Cool air is coming, though, with temperatures dipping into single digits Friday night.

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  73. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 7, 2012 at 5:45 PM

    That's right, Novak. I love the talk about the Euro looking interesting. I love it. Let's keep the faith, snow lovers. SamG--I might get out my rake, but that will be followed by a shovel!! Stay with us, SamG!! Hope with us! All is not lost! It is only Feb. 7!!

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  74. At this point, even as an avid snowmobiler and lover of everything snow-related, especially the storms....I wouldn't mind seeing this pattern hold out until Spring officially arrives. That said, I still feel pretty certain we'll get a good dumping or two before the season ends, just to annoy the snow-haters :)

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  75. I tend to agree JMigz. But you KNOW that if it continues mild through February, it will likely be a cold, delayed spring. Things just have to even out.

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  76. I would argue that this IS things evening out. We had consistent snow last year from November 13th through mid-April, and our last flurries were May 2nd.

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  77. @Plymouth Weather Lover heres something better to chew on then what SamG gave you yesterday,from the NWS discussion page this AM:
    "The next chance of measurable precipitation is Tuesday/Tuesday night.The latest GFS/ECMWF models bring a weather system out of the southwest U.S. into the central plains by Tuesday night,this system could bring some measurable snow to the forecast area by Wednesday morning",sounds better but lets see what actually happens!(like so many times this year storms look good in advance then take a crap as they near MN,by going too far east/west/south/north or my favorite dry air wins out)

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  78. @Novak is your hype finger getting itchy?,I see you and Mr. Hype himself,Dave Dahl starting to perk up,exactly how are temps hovering near freezing or slightly above,which all outlets are forecasting,ARTIC.To me going into this weekend would be artic,next week is the same old song and dance we have experienced all winter in regards to temps,any precip.IF it occurs would be mixed with rain or wet snow which wouldnt amount to much.Keep scanning the skies you might nail one sooner or later.

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  79. Anonymous:
    What you consider "hype", I simply consider as a heads-up. From my experience, most normal people like to know when there is potential for some wintery weather. You may not understand this, but Minnesotans like to snowmobile, ski, snowshoe, etc. AND there are many business owners who sell merchandise that is used when snow falls.

    With that being said, the majority of these interested individuals want a "heads-up" from weather forecasters. Of course, there is a delicate balance between what is giving a heads-up and what is hyping a storm prematurely. If I'm not striking that correct balance in your mind, then I apologize since I truly value your negative opinion.

    I will stick to my guns and say that someone in the Upper Midwest will receive accumulating snows next week. Will it be southern MN? I don't know yet, but I'm sure that Anonymous does. Funny how Anonymous never enlightens us on his/hers predictions and simply sits in the back seat commenting.

    Gotta love Anonymous since he/she is probably one of my good buddies harassing us on this board in an effort to push our buttons. Is that you behind the mask Jimmy?

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  80. Should be able to track IP addresses of anonymous posters. Nobody is really anonymous on the Internet. Give me the ip and I'll make sure the individual that shows weakness by hiding identity is exposed.

    Just saying'. :-)

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  81. Boy, if the traffic on this site is any indication of the weather to come...there must not be ANYTHING to get excited about in the near future. You could shoot a cannon through this message board today!

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  82. There is stuff showing up in the long range on the GFS, but it is way too far away to be taken seriously. Really nothing of great interest in short term, other than the cold front that will drop temps for a couple days. In other words...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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  83. If it wasn't for our good friend Anonymous, I would have no reason to post on this board right now. Thanks Anonymous!

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  84. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 9, 2012 at 4:51 PM

    Let's not fall asleep or let anonymous get under our skin. We hold out hope, we keep looking, we are snow and weather lovers. It will happen. I just know it. Getting tired of waiting and waiting, but let's keep the hope alive!!

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  85. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 9, 2012 at 4:54 PM

    Just checked KSTP.com and Dave Dahl is talking about the possibility of a couple of inches on Monday. That is not the big storm I am hoping/waiting for but it is moisture in the air. I like it. Any thoughts on that "storm" out there? He also said there could be some significant snow at the end of next week. That is only 7 or so days away. Any thoughts on that?

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  86. I am trying to not fall asleep and trying to stay optimistic...but nature is just being so frustrating. I know it has been very lame (or wonderful if you aren't a snow lover), but I am interested to see how things unfold come late Feb. We hear all about the NAO, AO, and MJO, and their effects on our weather here. There is one oscillation that I am interested in for this timeframe, and that is the PNA. For a good chunk of this winter this has been in the positive (with the exception of early Jan but this didn't last long). When this is positive, there is a ridge to our west, and a trough to the east. When negative, it is reversed...ridge in the east and trough in the west. Now I'm not saying that we will be getting into a really active pattern and we will be swarmed with storm after storm. I am merely interested to see how things do play out as we head into March. I wouldn't be shocked if we don't see anything since this winter has been so slow, but still...

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  87. Anonymous(not Jimmy)February 9, 2012 at 10:57 PM

    @Plymouth Weather Lover,here's my thoughts stop listening to Dave Dahl,he is a headline grabber,what you read today he has mentioned about a dozen times this winter and what do we have to show for it,15 inches thats all,he must have trained Novak as well,take a look at his post on 2/7(7:49am)Artic air in place now till next weekend,REALLY!,now we are all Minnesotians I believe,do you think temperatures between 30-40 is Artic,which is what is forecasted from Sunday on,Novak you want a prediction here it is MSP doesnt see more then an inch between this very second and 2/18,also there will be at least one 40 degree high and no sub zero readings in that same time frame,also please do all of us a favor and keep predicting the snow and cold,because the more you say its coming the more mother nature proves you wrong,which in turn means spring will be here sooner.Happy predicting!

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  88. Good morning all,I'm sure I'm the only one up at this hour,but hey I'm working while your all sleeping......@Anonymous stop being an smartass and crawl into the same hole Punxsutawney Phil came out of and disappear till next February,we get it that next week isnt artic,but it is still marginally cold enough for snow if we actually get a storm(and storms have a way of producing their own cold air)and I have 135 reasons to hope for a whopper of a snowstorm sometime soon(12+ would be nice)thats the number of snowblowers I have to sell.......but I read some buzzing killing statements earlier,:
    NWS morning discussion-The upper level pattern is NOT conducive for any significant storms across the upper midwest...or at least thru the next 7 to 10 days. *that definitely contradicts what Dahl is saying,doesnt it?
    Also,PD's blog this morning,he predicts only 6-12 more inches for the rest of winter,says we should end up around 25-30,how disappointing is that,man what I would do just to have half of last years total at this point.Duane wake up from your zzzzzzz's,Novak open the gulf,and Randy unleash the polar vortex,now all 3 of you find my big daddy of a storm!

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  89. Anonymous: You just don't get it do you? The fact is that most everybody on this board realizes that our opportunities for seeing significant snow are dwindling and that the cards are stacked against us. We also understand that much of the U.S. is in a warm weather pattern that is nearly impossible to break right now. So, if you were to put a gun to our head, we would spew out obvious predictions like yours and consider ourselves smart.

    However, most of the people on this board want snow and enjoy following storms of any size. We are all frustrated with what has transpired this season and we are willing to talk about any little hope that lies over the horizon. When a pessimist like you comes on this board, you simply depress us more and make this board a huge buzz kill.

    As far as predictions are concerned, it is very easy to pick one point and say "no snow for the next 7 days". Any idiot can do that, especially this year. I want your prediction for all of the Upper Midwest (MN, WI, IA, etc.) because anything that comes close to us is worth talking about.

    Also, you seem to harp on the Arctic air comment quite a bit. Not sure why. Fact is that Arctic air is pouring into MN as we speak and the high pressure responsible for this airmass will be anchored in the U.S. for the next 5 days. Granted, this air will modify over time, but it is still considered of Arctic origin. Remember, if we were to have snow on the ground right now, our temperatures would drop to -10 tomorrow morning. In other words, this is a true Arctic airmass that will be over us for the next several days.

    I have an idea for you Anonymous, if you don't like talking about the potential for storms, no matter what size, then just stay off of this board and go pester someone else that gives a crap about what you think.

    By the way, I'm becoming more and more depressed as I write this while viewing the latest model runs for next week. Boring!

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  90. Let us not forget we had a snowless Winter like this in 06 -07. By this date we had only picked up 12" for the season and we got nailed by 2 storms in late Feb early March brining us to 35". Let's not give up...Long Range does look more active towards months end

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  91. I just want to say THANK YOU to all of you who share your knowledge on this board. I am a weather junkie who appreciates snow in the winter, storms in the summer & breaking weather records - it has been fascinating to read the science behind weather & predictions. It isn't easy - just as with any predictions - things change. No one is right 100% of the time (No not even you crabby Anonymous - perhaps you would be happier commenting on the Strib boards where others like to spew vitriol?). Thank you to Bill for creating this board and to all who contribute. On behalf of the 'lurkers' who just read and don't comment - thank you - your posts are interesting & fun to read.

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  92. Well, the 12z Euro has something to watch now for next Thursday. This didn't show up in the 00z run last night, so I wonder if it will keep it or not. It would need to move to the northwest a bit more to hit the metro, but it is close. I guess we'll see.

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  93. Yep, and with a colder environment in place, anything that falls should be in the form of snow.

    One can't argue the important pattern change that is taking place. More Arctic air to work with and upper level winds turning more SW rather than NW. This is a pretty decent recipe for snow somewhere over the Upper Midwest. Gut feeling is IA/WI and southeast MN. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if we squeezed a couple of inches of snow out of Monday's system. That storm looks fairly impressive in the mid/upper levels.

    Long story short, finally something for us enthusiasts to keep an eye on, except for Anonymous, he hates everything...HE LIKES IT, HEY ANONYMOUS! - That's my Life Cereal pun. Am I trying too hard? Perhaps dating myself?

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  94. Snow in Rome, Italy for the second week in a row!

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  95. NovakWeather could be onto something - Anonymous is actually little Mikey!!! Eating that cereal as a youngster could explain why he's so bitter now as an adult.

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  96. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 10, 2012 at 4:38 PM

    Novak, you rock! Stop letting Anonymous get under your skin. Not worth it. But the storm that may come for next Thursday is something to get under your skin. Let's hear more thoughts on it. As of tomorrow, that is only 5 days away. Things can get more focused as we get that close. Bring it!

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  97. I'm almost sold on a Winter Storm for portions of the Upper Midwest late Wed. into Thur. 12z Euro showed strong signals and 18z GFS starting to show hints. 00z runs should prove to be interesting.

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  98. @NovakWeather "Almost sold" as in "almost pregnant?"

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  99. Weather service discussions from Chanhassen don't say much other than the fact that they think any systems next week will end up staying south of us. I hope this does eventually evolve into something good, but I've learned my lesson this winter. If the GFS and Euro can get on board and show some consistancy, then we'll be lookin good. Current forecast of 37 degrees next Thursday...interesting. I wonder if that will hold or not.

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  100. Snow lovers would love this...snow haters not so much. Too bad it is at hour 240 (10 days away)

    http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/gfsGL_0_prec_240.gif

    On another note, 00z GFS keeps that system the Euro showed south at this point, but there is a lot of time for that one to evolve. Nice to see at least a blip on the models.

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    Replies
    1. just to throw some credence on that, look at the GEM

      http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/gemglbPR00.40.gif?t=1328939839

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    2. OMG looks like for the first time all season the models are starting to hone in on a common solution 10 days out. All three seem to have a storm affecting the Upper Mississippi Valley. It appears like we have some model to model consistency, now lets see some run to run consistency.

      http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

      of course confidence is low 10 days out but still....

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  101. I was just going to post that (or something similar to that). 10 days out, and the models seem to be perhaps honing in on something. Like you said...10 days, but this does seem to somewhat match up with what the oscillations are doing, and the patterns they bring. I need to see many consistent runs showing a storm before I really get my hopes up, but it is something on the map.

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  102. I'm still speechless when looking at all the warm air up in the Canadian prairie. It has been this way basically all winter season. The temperature anomalies are through the roof and that doesn't appear to change much in the next 10 days. Can this be true? If so, it is going to be tough to get a block-buster snowstorm. We desperately need that cold feed out of Canada. I just don't get it.

    On a positive note, you gotta love the SW flow that sets-up over the U.S. for the next couple of weeks.

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  103. ok that was to much to ask of the GFS, hoping for run to run consistency, last nights run showed a ridge to our east and a trough to our west, with storms cutting up into our area for the day 10 time frame. Now it is strongly hinting at a full latitude trough settling into the central US with the storm track rounding the base of the trough and affecting Indiana and Ohio, and points ne from there. Meanwhile the ECMWF is still showing the ridge east of us with a massive area of surface high pressure setting up over the se US, that would strongly hint at storms cutting up into our area. At this time I would have to put my money on the consistency of the ECMWF. I will be watching tonight's run of the models to see what way the GEM goes, unfortunately I don't know of any site that shows the 240hr 12z of the gem. And the GFS is supposed to be the flagship of US models??? Remind me to never board that ship!!!

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  104. Anonymous(Crabby Mickey)February 12, 2012 at 12:30 AM

    See how that works Novak,sub zero missed last night,check.Only precip chance next week is Monday which most forecasters keep under an inch,check.And finally 40 degree high next week could be attained actually anytime wed-fri with highs near 40 each day,while you keep struggling with will it be cold or not and it makes you speechless(won't that be a blessing),I just stick with my predictions for the MSP area,after all this blog is based on what will occur at Minneapolis,who cares about your broad brushing the entire Upper Midwest,stick with what will effect us here in and around the metro(unless u don't live in the metro area)the rest is just filler,believe it or not I appericate your weather knowledge,but give me the facts like Duane and Randy,not filler like "I'm almost sold on a winter storm for portions of the Upper Midwest",I can just picture Dave Dahl with a 10 second spot before the 5pm news say something like that,thus hype/headline grabber or whatever you call it "informing the public",nail a forecast 48hrs in advance and the public will love you and listen to you in the future,give them filler and bs and you lost them,sorry that you and others think I'm negative and crabby ass,I just call it as I see it,now I know you don't care for my predictions but here's something I see MSP will get a 6+ snowfall the week of 2/20.Good night and God bless!

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  105. Another buzz kill statement for us snow lovers,Jonathan Yuhas on KSTP morning news said no snowstorms of any kind over the next week with above normal temperatures7 day graphic showed all 30's to near 40,can we really go a whole winter without a major snowstorm?

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  106. Anonymous (Mickey): I don't live in the MSP metro, and quite frankly, I'm tired of everyone concentrating solely on the MSP airport. For me, it is boring to focus on one point or area since that is like trying to find a needle in a haystack especially when attempting to forecast several days in advance.

    Here is a prediction for you Mickey that I'm quite confident with. Your beloved MSP airport will end up receiving well below the normal of 52" of snow and your temps will average out well above normal for the '11/'12 winter season. However, I'm not too impressed with this prediction since it was trending in this direction for several months. Like I said, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to say what you've been saying. Back seat driving is awesome isn't it?

    Now, your 6"+ snow prediction for the 6 to 10 day period is intriguing and I applaud you for finally sticking your neck out for once. What puzzles me is that, with this prediction, you are doing exactly what you say you despise. In fact, I don't think I've heard DD get as specific as you have 6 to 10 days out. I know that I have not gotten that specific since I believe it is idiotic to do so. So, what gives? What will you do when a storm hits the Upper Midwest during the week of 02/20 and Rochester and/or St. Cloud receives 6"+ yet MSP only gets a few inches? Will you toot your horn or apologize to everyone on this board? Tough one isn't it?

    I guess it all comes down to beliefs. I believe that broad-brushing a region during a 3-5 day forecast or longer is appropriate. As you get closer to the onset of a storm, say 24-48 hours in advance, that is when you attempt to get more detailed with specific locations like MSP. If you don't like that approach, then don't read my stuff. If you don't read my stuff, then you don't have to comment on it. Sound good?

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  107. The 12z Euro took a very interesting shift, looking similar to the GEM for the Thursday system. The low looks deeper and the track took a big jump to the NW. If this continues to trend even more so to the northwest, we could be in business. Again, I'd like to see some consistency in the model runs before I'm convinced, but it really should be watched.

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    Replies
    1. you beat me to that one Duane, but some of the ensemble members of the gfs do brush se MN with it, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the 18z gfs move a bit to the west/north west.

      http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/ensloopmref.html

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  108. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 12, 2012 at 4:55 PM

    Novak--Listen!! I enjoy reading everything you write. But not what you write in response to these crazy anonymous people. I follow you on Twitter, too. I have noticed no recent tweets, unless I missed them for some reason. But you are writing on here. I want to hear about the weather and snow chances. I don't think I am alone. We like you and your expert weather knowledge. Bring that!! Don't take their bait.

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  109. Couldn't agree more with PWL! Novak...if you see snow on the horizon, I'll gladly read about it from you. Keep it comin. I don't care if one model shows one flake on one run! I'll read it because I know you would always tell us to take it with a grain.

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  110. did I say earlier that I expected the 18z gfs to go north?? How silly of me!!! How about a 700 mile jump to the south!!! I think that model is suffering from a serious case of psychosis. It's currently about 500 miles south of the 84hr nam...good grief

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  111. @Plymouth Weather Lover since you have missed the writings of Novak,just go to kstp.com tonight and read the blog there,I think Novak proofread it.

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  112. @crabby mickey That's enough nastiness. I will delete future comments that are of a personal nature such as your last one.

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  113. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 12, 2012 at 9:18 PM

    I have a thought. Since our weather is pretty quiet (I hope that changes), I was wondering if we could have a new strand to answer some amatuer questions about the weather.

    For example:

    1. Why, if we have had a northwest flow for most of the winter, have had had such a warm winter? Wouldn't this type of flow signal a cooler winter since the weather is coming from the north?

    2. With a split jet stream, can we ever get a monster storm up this way? I thought the jets would have to come together for us to get the classic panhandle hooker....

    I am sure that are more questions like this that there may be some simple answers. I would only want a thread like this if the weather is suppose to be quiet, like anytime after Monday's small snow event.

    Just a thought.....

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  114. That's a good idea, @PWL, and those are questions I've often wondered about, too. Let's wait a day or two, and in the meantime, feel free to suggest a few more questions.

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  115. Nothing should surprise us with the ADD weather models. Consistency is simply not in the cards this season. There has not been much of a doubt that a healthy storm system would pull out into the Plains mid-week, but track has always been questionable. To see the Euro slide the track of this storm further NW is intriguing & certainly worth mentioning. I guess we will have to wait for consistency with tomorrow's runs.

    However, I don't think we should overlook tomorrow tricky disturbance. As we all know, it doesn't take much snow to cause travel issues, especially on the metro freeways. I won't be surprised if a coating to 1" of snow falls in the metro & it would occur right during the PM rush hour. In fact, NAM & GFS are dropping 1"-2" over a good chunk of so. MN. Certainly enough to cause a few travel problems.

    For me, the bottom line is that our weather pattern, slowly but surely, appears to be transitioning into a more active state. I'm still worried about the lack of true Arctic air, but at least we are receiving modified Arctic air. Combine this with an increase in Gulf moisture and a SW upper-level wind regime and you get a more interesting discussion board.

    BTW, I really believe we should have a thread about Plymouth's #1 question above. It is a fantastic observation that is concerning a lot of us who follow the weather. As far as I can recall, a NW flow in the heart of winter meant well below zero temps for MN. Not this year. Hmmmmm, a reason to be concerned.

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  116. Interesting, 00z GFS just moved the track nearly 200 mi. further NW than previous runs. Is this a trend? I know one person who desperately hopes it is not. :)

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  117. what's going to be interesting is the AFD's the NWS offices are going to be putting out, the system coming up on the 21st is getting into their 7 day forecast period. After all the GEM and ECMWF are looking very similar in the timing and the track.

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  118. It is so frustrating to watch systems develop on the models, and have them just barely miss off to the southeast. Northeast Iowa, as well as areas SE of a line from La Crosse to I would say Wausau in WI could see some accumulating snow. It is just that close, but maybe the only part of MN that could see some potential accumulations is extreme southeast MN. I guess there are still a few days left for the track to shift a bit more, but as has been the case all winter...looks like a near miss. Overall pattern continues its more active look as we head into the final week to week and a half of Feb, so I guess we'll wait and see on that.

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  119. I don't think it makes a difference what the GFS says

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  120. Looking at the 12Z NAM, GFS, EWMWF with my eyes - Thursday's storm appears to pretty much miss Minnesota. Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois are looking pretty good right now.

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  121. Straight out, flat out...I want you to give me an honest answer. What do you think the chances of a significant storm system hitting the MSP metro this winter season?

    Mother Nature: "Well... that's difficult to say... you really don't..."

    Hit me! Just give it to me straight! I've been looking at model data ad nauseum and it doesn't seem to matter. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?

    Mother Nature: "not good".

    [Gulp] You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?

    Mother Nature: "I'd say more like... one out of a million."

    SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE? YEAH!

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  122. Mother nature controlls the odds, you know. She a sly one...

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  123. ECMWF has somthing for us at the end of the model run...
    although all things considered...

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  124. Novak, love the Dumb and Dumber reference there. That one made me laugh...and I'm still sold on at least one large system (6+ inches of snow) affecting a good part of the area before this winter is done with. Meteorological winter does end in just a couple weeks, but we all know craziness can still happen in March.

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  125. That's really funny Novak,I'm glad to see your succumbing to Mother Nature.

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  126. HOLD ON EVERYBODY !!!!!!!!!
    we might have made it to 15 inches for the season. yes, it is not a typo 15 inches!!!
    if we go on this way we may even tie Amarillo, Texas!!!!!

    YEEEEEEEAAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!

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  127. For people that follow Ian Leanord on Twitter you might have seen this, but a very cool national Poll today about Favorite Weather Forecasters opened to voting. There are 60 people on there, including Jim Cantore and other high-profile forecasters. Ian Leanard and Keith Marlar both not only made the list, but are leading the voting right now!

    http://weatherist.com/blog/2012/02/13/your-favorite-weather-forecaster

    Great to see the TC Forecasters representing!

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  128. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 13, 2012 at 9:42 PM

    Another question to ask might be this:

    How come the models are so "off" this year? Is this a one-year phenomenom, for those of you who have followed them for a while? I would think, over time, that these models would get better and better, but they are not. Does this make forecasting more of an art than ever before?

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  129. I clearly remember they were pretty off last year as well...

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  130. The Tuesday 06z GFS is a thing of beauty. Check out hour 252...If only!!!

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  131. Thank you for that heads up Hammer...that's my new desktop background! I figured I would save it since the 12z run will make it either completely disappear, or put down in the Iowa/Illinois area.

    Although I just checked the temps, and the GFS has a 49 degree high for that day too! So it would basically just be a free street cleaning if it did materialize.

    Fun to dream though!

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  132. I am much more interested for what the ECMWF does at the end of its model run.

    The GFS sees to an overshoot, the heaviest precip to the north of here with that system.

    The GFS has had the tendency to push ALL of its systems too far north.(this winter) If this holds true, we may have somthing in the cards next week.

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  133. @Hammer, early this morning I was looking at the past runs of the GFS. For its last 8 runs it has shown a major storm either running up the western spine of the Appalachian's or cutting up to the Chicago area between the 24th and 26th. For the first time all season it seems like it want's to build up the SE US ridge, putting the middle part of the country in a sw flow. Normally I don't comment on the GFS past 240 hours...but 8 runs in a row!!! maybe it's onto something.

    Just checked the Control run of the 14/0z ECMWF, although it's about 48 hrs later than the GFS it is there as well. Not surprising though on the timing difference with the GFS bias of being to progressive and the ECMWF of being to slow to kick systems out of the SW US. Hmmmm

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  134. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 14, 2012 at 12:28 PM

    That's what I am talking about!! Tuesday is now marked in my brain as the next "possibility." That is all I ask for--something on the horizon that has hope. Bring it. And, welcome back @randyinchamplin!! Hope things are well!

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  135. Any thoughts on the weak low spinning in north dakota? It is very moisture starved, but is moving slowly, and it is starting to draw energy from a batch of showers in Monatana. There also appears to be a gradual increase in showers over lake supurior, perhaps it will draw from there as well...

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  136. Not expecting anything more than some light snow or flurries from that weak little spin. 12z GFS continues to advertise an accumulating snow event early/mid next week, but now the Euro is backing off of it, giving us nothing more than a few flurries. It could just be a little hiccup, or it is truly telling us that we were just meant to be teased all winter long.

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  137. I am not sure, I appears that the low just tapped into some energy, for that the showers are being re-invigorated

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  138. At last, a new thread to acknowledge snow possibility for next Monday. http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2012/02/monday-snow-possibilities.html

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