Sunday, January 15, 2012

It's Winter Halftime: Will Winter Reassert?

It's January 15, square in the middle of meteorological winter. Winter, as Minnesotans know it, has been slow to make its presence felt. Currently, it seems to be in the throes of a comeback, in cold if not snow. What does the rest of the winter have in store?

Based on ever-scientific observations of the coat of the official TMF dog, here's our guess as to how the whole winter will end up (including March, April and however long it goes):

38 inches snow
6 sub zero days
5.4 degrees above normal for December through February

What say you? (And don't forget to answer the new poll question at the right.)

26 comments:

  1. I may be kind of hesitant to accept the 5.4 degrees above average. Sure, it has been like that for the first half of the winter, but reading an article, there is about a sixty percent chance that if a la nina winter is warm for the first part of winter, it will be cold for the second part.

    I do agree with the thirty eight inches of snow and the six subzero days. They just seem plausible to me.

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  2. I don't know the specific number, but we must be maybe 8 degrees above normal from Dec. 1 to Jan. 15? It may end up being a little closer to average than 5.4 but there's no way it can get cold enough long enough to cancel out all the warmth we've had.

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  3. Forecaster: Tuesday low: Wednesday Low: Thursday Low: Friday Low:

    WCCO: 6 3 0 NA
    KSTP 6 -2 -4 -2
    KARE: 6 0 3 NA
    KMSP: 0 -2 5 12
    Accuweather: -1 -2 8 1
    Wunderground: 0 -1 4 7
    Imap: 5 0 0 4
    Forcea: 9 -4 7 10
    Intellicast: 3 -2 9 11
    NWS: 0 0 5 7
    Star tribune: -2 -1 9 N/A

    Average: 2.9 -1 4.1 6.25

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    1. This is great comparative info, Bemaki. Thanks for gathering. Looks like KSTP is among the most bullish on sub-zero cold.

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  4. Bill-

    you refer to the remainder of the winter in your post. I assumed that would be the average for the remainder of the winter, not as a winter in a whole.

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    1. Sorry about the confusion. I'll try to clarify that.

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    2. It makes a lot more sense now. 38 inches for the remainder of winter seemed awfully optimistic! Considering the winter as a whole, I think your predictions are pretty good...but I'll be surprised to see 6 below-zero readings. Even with this week's cold snap, outlooks have us back in the mid to upper 30s next weekend.

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  5. Decided to wake up at 6 am and head to GB to root for my NY Giants. Currently 23 degrees, cloudy, and there is an estimated 4-5" snow depth at Lambeau. I'm now getting out of my car wearing red and blue. Nice knowing all of you.

    Hoping for an above avg snow total the rest of the season. To be determined.

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    1. MN Weather Fan....Stay safe while you celebrate!!!

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    2. That was a great game. Pretty nice out during the tail gating pre-game. And although the temp topped out above freezing it felt a lot colder than that. Sitting on bleachers 6 rows from the top of the stadium didn't help. GB fans were very friendly.

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  6. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 15, 2012 at 1:16 PM

    MN WeatherFan--You will love it. Grew up right near Green Bay and there is nothing like Lambeau. Too bad you will see a loss today by your beloved Giants. It may not even be close. Enjoy the game, anyway.

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    1. Ouch... small consolation for the horrible winter is to see the Pack go down like they did tonight. What an awesome game.

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  7. A few days of cool and light snow finally makes it look almost like winter... then along comes a 40 degree day and wipes it all away.

    This blows.

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  8. some models are starting to hint at higher QPF totals for Tues, at this time I'm looking at 2-4" for MSP and 3-5 for far se MN. GFS and Nam are not quite there yet.

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  9. Randy you are alone right now.

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  10. Hmm...high below zero.

    Free big mac's anyone lol?


    FYI McDonald's is doing a buy one get one for yesterday's high temp deal right now.

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  11. The more I look at things the more I think we could see 2-4" on Tuesday. The ECMWF,GEM,JMA and NOGAPS all show a large area of Difluence over MN at the 700mb level, and the Relative Humidity, from what I can find is around 90%. The GFS and NAM keep the Difluence south of the metro, at this time I think the GFS and Nam are incorrect. Also this system seems to be slowing down. When you have a area of difluence the atmosphere is out of balance at that level, in order to correct itself it needs to develop lift, which will lead to precip trying to form. Novak your thoughts?

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  12. I couldn't agree more Randy. All models have been showing difluence for late MON into TUE. Plus, we are in a good dendrite snow growth zone early TUE. However, most models (esp. the NAM/GFS) have been slow to saturate the lower levels of the atmosphere and they have neglected to develop decent low level features for this disturbance.

    It will be interesting to see what the 00z model runs show. I will stick to my guns and say that a good chunk of so. MN can expect some accumulating snow by TUE pm. How much? Not sure. I can't imagine this being a big storm, so I will go with a general 1"-3" snow with some locally higher amounts.

    Mother Nature has made an ass out of me all season, why stop now? :}

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  13. 00z just coming in and it looks interesting for late MON into TUE. I will be fun to see who jumps on board and who doesn't.

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  14. Ok the new GFS is showing more QPF for se MN. I would expect the next 12z run to move it further North.

    @ Novak keep it up dude, your forecast's have been close, mother nature has been cruel to most forecaster's. I expect a change in Feb. The GFS is showing blocking over Greenland at 15 days out, from what I here that is what the Euro is showing as well. I expect the NAO will go negative, with a -PNA causing a ridge to set up over the eastern US. The question is where will the snow set up. I expect that a 2nd year La Nina that is weakening will show it's face

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  15. It is crazy what the models are doing with the massive cold air blast that tries to settle into the US this week. Check this out, the ECMWF takes our 850mb temps from around 6+ today to -20 by THUR. then back up to +12 by next SUN. This temperature ride is ridiculous.

    Something has to happen in-between, right?

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    Replies
    1. you would think something would have to happen, but whatever it will be, will be fast moving, can't wait till the NAO goes negative, and blocking sets ups, where will the heavy snow bands set up. It will happen but where, is the big ????

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  16. 1-3" looks likely for south/east of a FSD-MSP line Monday night.

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  17. I am betting on above average temps the rest of the winter. My guess is we will have 2 nights below zero with no daytime highs below zero. I also expect to see less than 24 inches of snow throughout the rest of the winter.

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