Sunday, January 22, 2012

Forecasters Weigh in on Overnight Snow

As of mid-evening on Sunday night, here were the various forecasts for snow from tonight into Monday. The National Weather Service, MPR and @NovakWeather have the most bullish forecasts for snow accumulation.

WCCO: 1-3
KSTP: 1-2
FOX: 1-3
KARE: 1-2
NWS: 2-4
MPR: 2-4
Accuweather: 2.1
TWC: 1-3
Strib: 1-2 (early Sunday update)
Novak: 2-4

26 comments:

  1. this thing better get some precip going,or BUST will be everybody's favorite word tommorrow

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  2. Just peaking at the latest water vapor it looks like the deeper moisture is really starting to race north, and is currently moving into Wisconsin. It does look like radar is beginning to respond to this as well, so you have to hope that this moisture is actually wrapping in around the low. The deeper moisture is still well southeast of here, focused on the squall line moving across the south but this is certainly a start. It really makes you wonder what this system would have been capable of doing if those big storms hadn't developed across the south.

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  3. Snow falling with 1-3" reports across ctrl/ern/srn Minnesota. About 1" in metro with another inch expected as backside of ban/circulation moves through from the WNW. So, looks like forecasts verified.

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  4. The models are in genreal agreement come the end of the month that there will be a cold outbreak. Of what proportions I am un aware of at this time, but many long-range models show it:

    ECMWF
    GFS
    NOGAPS
    GEM

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  5. I think after a lot of busts or quasi-busts, we can say this storm behaved more or less as predicted, and local forecasters handled it pretty well overall.

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  6. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 23, 2012 at 12:40 PM

    So, Rigil Kent, you think that this was a bust or quasi-bust? If you do, then you didn't read what was forecasted as stated as the intro to this thread. Most everyone said anywhere from 1-4 inches. Isn't that exactly what we got? They may have talked about more or less leading up to it, but it was not their final prediction. There are a lot of factors that go into storms, but no one went off the deep end and predicated crazy amounts of snow. So, how was this a bust? Or did I misunderstand your statement?

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    1. I think that if you read my post carefully, you would see I actually agree with you.
      "we can say this storm behaved more or less as predicted, and local forecasters handled it pretty well overall."
      I copied it again for you.

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  7. @plymouth you misunderstood,Rigil didn't say this one was a bust,he said it behaved as predicted.........as for me I know it wasn't a bust. But I call it a dud,2 inches isn't going to sell much snowblowers,justa few shovels,ice melt and washer fluid,I need some substance snowfall 6-12+ be nice

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  8. I can almost not see grass anymore...almost.

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  9. big daddy:
    On the average, I believe we usually only receive 1 or 2 6"+ snowfalls a season (perhaps someone can verify this?). Most of our seasonal snowfall comes from in several spurts of snow that are under 4" in size.

    With that being said, it likely isn't often that you are selling snow blowers. :)

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    1. I researched my datasets and considering a period from January 1900 to December 2011 this is what I found:
      4.7% of all inches fell from snow events of 10" +
      14.7% from snow events 6-10"
      28.4% from snow events 3-6"
      34.6% from snow events 1-3"
      17.5% from snow events of less than 1 (excluding trace).

      And you were spot-on Novak: the average number of snowfall events exceeding 6" per season is around 1.48.

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    2. Truly fascinating stuff, Rigil!! It makes a lot of sense to me. Coming from the east coast, I've always felt that the number of big snows (or, more accurately, percentage of inches coming from big storms) was considerably higher. Although your stats don't actual compare to east coast locations, I feel pretty confident about that. Anyway, great contribution!!

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  10. there was some study i saw a couple of years ago, i think thats what you were referring to novak. amazing to think we only get so few 6"+ snowstorms. of course this is an average. Up here in western ND some place received 4-5 6"+ snows last year.

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  11. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 23, 2012 at 4:45 PM

    Rigil, sorry about that. I still read it the wrong way, but I was clearly wrong in that. I am glad we agree! I just get sensitive when so many people rip on mets around the area and "forget" to compliment them when they nail it! Sorry my sensitivity got in the way and was projected on you!!

    Now, when is the next talk of a snowstorm? It seems that the forecast looks high and dry for a while.....

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  12. Looks like we have a winner! Woodbury...


    PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
    354 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012

    ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
    ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
    ..REMARKS..

    0354 PM SNOW MAPLEWOOD 44.99N 93.02W
    01/23/2012 M3.8 INCH RAMSEY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

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  13. It actually looks like winter out there... might be the first time since late November when we got one of those first snowfalls.

    Too bad it will probably all melt this week.

    I'm in with those looking for at least one 6+"er this year... but I'll take what we got this last time for sure. A few more like that to keep it fresh before spring would also be nice.

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  14. I say the next chance for some snow comes in friday. The ECMWF brings a weak low into the picture, however, it appears to show a major tempurature swing after the passing of it. It seems to be fairly weak, somwhat lacking in moisture, but it seems that the temperature swing comes with quite a bit of energy, I woulden't be surpriesed to see somthing larger developing.

    Being an aumeter, can someone verify this, correct it if necessary. I am just starting to persue this field, so I can not be sure of anything.

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  15. official report out of msp as of 6pm, so can consider it final, is 1.9 inches.
    This brings our season total to14.4.
    so we will not beat the record of the least snowy winter (14.2).
    Next one up the ranking 16.2 inches ( 1894-95).
    only 1.8 inches to go.... should not be a problem with feb and march still to go, but given how this winter is going you never know :):)

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  16. If this link works the Euro does show a small event Friday- http://tinyurl.com/7qu8oto

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  17. @Novak..we were selling snowblowers in droves oct/nov(we actually were out at the end of nov),all those sales were due to last years snowfall and people didnt want to be caught with their pants down this year,but as Dec went on with no snow and snowblowers came back in stock now we are sitting on a surplus,one mega storm is all I want and we will be good,I've been here long enough now to know most of our snows come from clippers or storms under 6",its the one thing that me and my brother back east joke about,we can have snow on the ground for 4/5 months straight from little storms and they get 2 nor'easters and end up with just about the same snowfall as us some years(of course not last year)but what would I do for a nor'easter type storm right about now or a domebuster like last year(best thing about dreaming,is its free!)hell 30 years ago in MSP there was two storms 2 days apart dropping almost 40 inches,so yeah anything is possible,just find it for me Novak and send it to big daddy by March and I will be forever grateful.Thank You.

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  18. big daddy:
    We are due my friend and I will be scanning the horizon for you. Tell your Canadian friends to unleash some of that bitter stuff into the U.S. Tough to get a blockbuster when your temps are consistently 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

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  19. This is a bit of a side note, but it is weather related (space weather). A CME from the largest solar flare in almost 7 years hit the planet this morning and it looks like it was a pretty good impact. As anything weather related there are no guarantees, but if you're patient enough and willing enough to brave the cold, head outside after nightfall, get away from light pollution, and take a peak at the northern sky. First though, we need these clouds to break apart.

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    1. it just amazes me...every time it looks like the pattern may change, we go back to above to much above temps with very little chances for precip.

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  20. We might get surprised with tonights sneaky system,nothing was mentioned about it till today,I'm not saying anything heavy,but something is better then nothing,endof weekend/early next week looks promising for moisture,I say moisture cuz rainbsnow line may be an issue,like I said on other post cold air gets wasted and we battle dry air,then there is potential for storminess and we battle the rain/snow line,very frustating

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