At last, winter was giving local meteorologists something to talk about. As of Tuesday night, there seemed to be a consensus that Thursday would likely record the Twin Cities first sub-zero temp of the season, the latest such occurrence on record if it pans out. There was also talk of a possible snow "situation" developing for Friday, though snow lovers and other interested parties are surely skeptical based on previous forecasts this year.
Discuss amongst yourselves.
Count me as one who is trigger shy AND skeptical. However, one thing appears for certain, somebody in the Upper Midwest will finally get hit pretty hard by snow.ReplyDelete
We appear to be in quite an active, yet progressive weather pattern AND cold air is in place. Trying to nail-down these fast moving storms in a pattern like this is quite a challenge.
Let the educated guessing begin!
@ Novak, I agreed a more amplified pattern is likely, so there will be at the very least some things on the map to speculate about. If someone would force me to take a guess at which area would be the most active I would say Madison to Chicago, that's based on 75% gut feeling and 25% data.ReplyDelete
@Bill, It must be Ian's in house model that he is looking at, nothing else shows a northern movement, but maybe it's onto something.
I guess I should go visit my in-laws(and take my spanking new snowblower with me),after today Seattle will have more snow then MSP this winter,and yeah they are bragging.....I keep hearing pattern change,"interesting weather",snowier outlook,more moisture,active jet stream but yet it is the same old story here in Minneapolis,snowless day after snowless day and everytime snow is mentioned it either fizzles to nothing,dry air sucks it up,or moves south of here,whats the most frustating part is for so long this winter we kept saying there wasnt enough cold air present for a snowstorm now were hearing the cold air will suppress any snow from forming and then next week you'll hear enough warm air gets sucked up that snow will mix with sleet/rain and hold snowfall down,you cant win,feels like I'm living on the east coast again,always disappointed with storms,mostly cuz the warm ocean air would change snow over to rain....let winter be over already and bring on spring,I thought I would never utter those words being a snowlover.ReplyDelete
It would be so appropriate for Friday's storm to slide just south of the MSP metro and dump snow over Pipestone, Owantonna, Albert Lea and Rochester. Wherever it snows, it will be a pretty snow since our air temperature will be in the single digits and teens. This will be a Colorado mountain-like snow called 'Champaign Powder' consisting of fine granulars.ReplyDelete
Hey look at it this way,if Fridays system doesn't pan out for the metro,we can look forward to the old RELIABLE accuweather forecast for next Wednesday of 7.5 inches of snow,lolReplyDelete
NWS is going to need to issue Winter Storm Watch for at least the southern 1/4 of MN. This storm as a lot to work with.ReplyDelete
1.) Cold Air in place (snow ratios of 15:1 or 18:1)
2.) Good 850mb jet transport nosing into so. MN
3.) Divergence in the upper levels
4.) Good dendrite growth region at mid-levels in so. MN
This is going to be a close call for the MSP metro. I'm confident that some accumulating snow will fall in the metro, but gut feeling is that the jackpot will be located on a line from about Mankato to Rochester on south into northern IA. Any shift in the mid-level low will make a big difference, of course.
NWS is showing the same area for the most snow in their Winter Weather graphics. Their confidence still appears low, though. Last I checked, they had a 10%+ probability of 4+ inches along the I90 corridor, with the bullseye between Madison and Chicago.ReplyDelete
Big Daddy et al...ReplyDelete
I understand the frustration, but I think we need to keep things in perspective here and accept it. Some comments look a bit pathetic. Like Mother Nature is doing some sort of crime to somebody.
Like last winter it seemed it would not stop snowing, this winter it just does not. And that's it.
This is well documented by the fact that winter snowfall in the cities varies from 14.2 to 98.6 inches.
Some winters it snows a lot, and some winters it does not snow.
Weather enthusiasts and lover should be loving the weather and trying to decipher it no matter what.
Grow up everybody.
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Huh?! Isn't that like saying "Food could be a range between a slice of white bread to a huge grilled ribeye."ReplyDelete
And you're basically telling a bunch of carnivores to be happy with the white bread because it's still "food"?!
this is the GFS total for thru Sunday...the snow north is for Sunday not Friday. It drops this much snow on MSP with .09" of liquid.ReplyDelete
The Nam through Saturday night with .15
With a similar temp profile the Euro drops .23 liquid
very interesting indeed
No, I am basically telling a bunch of carnivores that gorged themselves last winter that it looks silly to complain if they don't have as much to eat this time around, knowing that could very well happen, as it has many times in the past.ReplyDelete
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lst local met (that I have heard) comes out with snowfall forecastReplyDelete
Ian= 1-2 north metro, 2-4 south metro
Ken Barlow spoke pretty confident of "several inches of snow" or something very similar to that during the 5 p.m. show.ReplyDelete
Temp fell almost 6 degrees in 20 min according to the airport:ReplyDelete
6:33 PM - 24.8 °F
6:53 PM - 19.0 °F
That little mini-blizzard sent the cold in with a vengeance. I got in the door just as it was hitting full-throttle. I wish I didn't need to go out again until Friday...ReplyDelete
While Friday's system has peaked the interests of many (especially the I-90 corridor near the IA border), the system that is being advertised for Sunday is looking more interesting, more promising, and more widespread of an event. There's still too many model runs left between now and then for anything to be predicted but keep a close eye on that one. It could very well be the first legit, widespread accumulating snow event of the season for the area. I anxiously await future model runs. I'm not trying to hype this up either...just getting the word out :) Stay warm everyone!ReplyDelete
Ian showed 2-4 inches for Friday with the "snow meter" showing 3.4.ReplyDelete
NWS has 1-2" for Friday,I agree with Duane Sunday is looking promising at this point,but did you catch in the NWS discussion page that they are looking at next Wednesday for an significant event,can Accuweather actually be accurate for a change...we'll see....BTW latest sub-zero will be very close to breaking a record,current temp at MSP is 2 above at 10pm,lets see what happensReplyDelete
Regarding the tying of the record for latest sub-zero temp, it's interesting that Paul Douglas wrote in his blog late tonight: "Welcome to the 1st subzero morning of winter, and a record-breaking one at that. We set a record for the latest subzero on record in the metro." As we now know, this is an incorrect statement!ReplyDelete
In contrast, MPR's Paul Huttner wrote: "The official temps at MSP at 11pm was right at 0. As of this writing it appears we'll dip slightly below zero just before midnight, Wednesday January 18th. If veriified that ties the record for the latest sub-zero temp at MSP on record."
This might seem like a small difference, but I think it reflects on journalistic integrity and interest in being accurate.
we tied the record, at 1153 pm a reading of -1 was recordedReplyDelete
Just taking a quick peak at the 06z NAM in regards to the system for Friday. It isn't as strong as the 00z run of it, and it appeared as even the GEM took things further south into Iowa. It will be interesting to see what the 12z model runs do with this. Those 3-5 areas of far S. MN could end up only seeing 1-3, but it is still too soon to jump on that bandwagon. We'll see if that trend continues or if it is just a little hiccup with the model. Sunday/Monday system still needs to be watched closely. It is interesting to see the ECMWF bring up a nice area of low pressure and deepen slightly as it passes by, but the precip doesn't react accordingly. If this system does end up developing as the European model shows I fully expect it to be more expansive with the precipitation. Keep watching it :)ReplyDelete
Duane you keep beating me to the punch,I was going to say Fridays system was a yawner if you live in and around the metro,but look out for Sunday looking more and more impressive but mixed precip could enter the picture at least for areas south of metro.....stay tuned!ReplyDelete
-10 without any snowpack,just image if we had some snow on the ground,easily -20 to -25!who cares I dont much like the cold but bring on the SNOWReplyDelete
-14 in Como Park! Frosty!ReplyDelete
I fully expect the main show for friday's system to be south of MN. The models aren't handling the arctic air very well. I would bet if anything, the 12z models continue their southward trend of the snow. currently looks like along a line from sioux falls to dubuque to chicago is where the action will be. easily 3-6'' of snow with higher amounts probably along that axis.ReplyDelete
Last nights run of the ECMWF for Sunday had some things to like and to dislikeReplyDelete
1) didn't look like mix precip will happen
2) storm structure was good from 850mb down to the surface.
1) from 700mb-500mb it looked slightly disorganized
2) convection along the cold front initializes about 6 hours to early, it seemed to be moisture starved on it's back side.
Watching the GFS come in as I type this, I do like the region of origin better than the previous runs, but its track is now to far south and east, will see how the other models handle it as they come in later.
This is from bemaki Jan 19, 2012 01:38 PMReplyDelete
Somebody is going to get nailed with heavy snow come Sunday into monday, and Sombody is going to get hit with the freezing rain. The CPC places the heavist band of snow just north of the metro, and the freezing rain band into Iowa-Illinois-Sothern Wisconsin, It will be worth watching.
Thanks for doing that bill. I think I mis-clicked the link.Delete
I'm looking real hard for tomorrow right now, the 18z nam has just taken a shift to the north. I was debating on going 2-4, or 3-5 for MSP....I need to do more looking ie check wind profiles below 10k feet, on both the Euro and Nam. A difference of just .05 liquid precip with these temps could mean + or - 2" of snowfall. If the winds are relatively light the Dendritic snow fall will will not be ripped apart, and accumulations will pile up at the surface quicklyReplyDelete
I Wonder weather Ian Lenord and tbe NOGAPS is on to somthing...Delete
Hoping the 18Z GFS follows the 18Z NAM trend, I like the thought of 6 inches. Curious as to what the NWS will do if the trend does in fact continue, lift the advisories north, upgrade and issue a watch instead around Rochester?...ReplyDelete
I would be hesitant to trust the 18z nam, lets see what happens with the runs tonight.ReplyDelete
HPC just shifted the 4in probabillites a little further north and east:ReplyDelete
ok this is kind of technical, per bufkit based on the nam model, the Dendritic growth zone is between 13 and 15k with decent omega readings, wind profiles are low. Ratios are around 20 to 25 to one. Seems like it went to the Euro solution. Winds speeds were low on the Euro soundings as well. I'm going with 4-5" at MSP, but 4-6" is not out of the question.ReplyDelete
What are your predictions for points south of there and who will get the most do you think?Delete
ps i love your predictions and everyone else's on here, thanks for posting. You guys offer some great info and reasoning into your forecasting and it's nice to hear a change from the mets and NWS
Randy, don't do it!Delete
doing snowfall forecast with these low temps is a pain in the A**ReplyDelete
I'm somewhat hesitant to say this, but for Rochester, 5-7 is likely. possible 6-8...That I think is the Bingo area.ReplyDelete
I'm going to hold off on any snow predictions until I see the 00z runs of everything. Models have been wobbling enough to make a big enough difference in the totals, and last minute shifts have been common so far this winter. 00z and 06z will hopefully lock this quick moving system down.ReplyDelete
well I'm calling it a night.. what ever happens tomorrow will happen. Sunday so far, I have not been that impressed with. But that could change in a heart beat.ReplyDelete
before I do here is the 18z Nam 48 hour forecast, I really do think it has good support from the 12z Euro....Good Luck every oneReplyDelete
I don't seem enough evidence to stray too much from previous forecasts. Granted, the snow ratio will be around 18:1 to 20:1 and that will help with accumulations. Combine this with a bit more mid-level lift than previously expected and it starts to make you think. However, I will still stick with a general 1"-3" snowfall for the MSP metro (highest amounts south metro of course). I could see Rochester measuring a solid 4"-6" blanket of snow. Axis of heaviest snow should run from about Albert Lea E/SE to MSN then the northern suburbs or Chicago. The snow will be dry and powdery; easy to shovel.ReplyDelete
BTW, Euro really looks good for late Sunday into Monday. Will be interesting what the 00z GFS shows for later this weekend.
While I will expect for nothing, I will keep in the back of my mind that nothing could end up being a lot. *sigh* I suppose this means I should wait on the car wash...ReplyDelete
Perhaps your decision to stay conservative will be just enough to cause the snow to pile up. Mother Nature seems to have your number this year...
Randy I'm pulling for you,but I couldnt help but chuckle when I read Bill's comment,"dont do it Randy",this winter has thrown many curveballs(ask Novak) and you yourself have said in the past not to trust the NAM. God speed.......ReplyDelete
Flakes are now flying in Eden Prairie,with a moderate/heavy streak of snow just west of Hennipen county moving straight east,got my fingers crossed for you Randyinchamplain.ReplyDelete
That snow band is dissolving before the radar's eyes. Perhaps the radar just isn't picking it up...it is still snowing here.ReplyDelete
I don't like the way the GFS is handling the Sunday/Monday storm. It appears to be the outlier. It shows a strong 500mb vortmax AND a major league trough digging into the southern Plains yet no surface low pressure system to accompany them? I don't like it.ReplyDelete
Gut feeling is that the Euro's are onto something when they develop a classic Winter Storm over the Upper Midwest and surface low that tracks from KS to WI.
I completely agree Novak. GFS hasn't really been consistent with any solution, where the GEM and Euro have been fairly consistent in tilting a trough negative with a deepening area of low pressure moving through south central into eastern Wisconsin. The Euro is finally starting to develop a more reasonable look given the track and strength of the low. It expands the precip further back to the west of the low, which is more typical. The trough is forecast to come ashore Saturday morning, so hopefully the 12z runs start to really come around on this system. This one still needs to be watched, but it is frustrating that all the models aren't really agreeing quite yet.ReplyDelete
US models suck right now! NAM tried to dump 9" of snow in RST and 3.5" in MSP in yesterday's 18z runs for today's snowfall. Needless to say, it was out to lunch. Meanwhile, I have not been impressed at all with the GFS this winter AND it appears to be, slowly but surely, coming around to the Euro models on Sunday's storm.ReplyDelete
How much snow did you tally where you are? One of the WCCO mets tweeted, "As of noon, Rochester tied the record snowfall amount of 2.3" for today's date, per NWS." Seems like right about an inch at TMF headquarters, about 3 miles to the northeast of the MSP airport.Delete
@Bill 1.5 inches in golden valley,still not enough to fire that damn new snowblower,Novak,Duane,Randy give me something to chew on these dribs and drabs of snow suck,good enough for a white christmas but christmas was a month agoReplyDelete
Check out the meteogram:ReplyDelete
Why is the 12Z NAM so far above everything else?
@Randyinchamplain mother nature came up and bit you hard,what happened to not trusting the NAM,well then dust off get up on that horse and find me a 6+ snowstorm,I know its out there,just bring her home to daddy,big daddy.Thank you.ReplyDelete
big daddy, I woke up this morning missing my left leg below the knee, hope mother nature enjoyed her dinner. LM*O!!!Delete
However I learned something last night. So I went and found this and now have it booked marked, its the actual sounding for MPX that the weather balloon transmits as it raises trough the atmosphere. The white line on the right is the temp through the atmosphere, the white line on the left is the dew point temp. In order for there to be saturation these two lines have to be close together. This figure is from last night at 0z, if I would have seen this I would have never forecast the amount of snow I did, as there was a severe dry slot below 650 mb.
and here is this mornings sounding
It looks like Yuhas at KSTP is sticking with the US models, saying greatest accumulation chances Sunday are north and west of the metro. Bold statement with the foreign models saying otherwise. I'm not saying that the foreign models won't turn to the US models eventually, but making a statement like that when certain models say a completely different story is a bit risky in my books. Man I hope the GFS really cranks this storm up like the Euro and GEM do.ReplyDelete
Duane to add a punctuation mark to your post, the HPC boys like it east and ne of the Metro. Just looking at the 18z gfs dosen't make sense to me, 10m wind vectors are howling out of the gulf, while at the same time a 55 knt low level get enters the right rear quadrant of the low, yet the operational run seems to ignore that, and waits to strengthen the low until its over Lake MI...strange to me. Looks like EAU could be very close to the best action.Delete
I'd like to ask our in-house experts-by-hobby, what's the general sentiment about Sunday? Too soon or unpredictable to tell? Little to nothing? Potentially a hard hit? A mixed bag like NWS is hinting at?ReplyDelete
Basically, is Sunday going to slick skiing or a dusting of new powder on the hill?
Surprise, surprise...The Good For Sh*t (GFS) model is coming in line with the Euro. WTF? This storm is still a question mark, but it is becoming clear that a surface low will likely develop in KS/MO and track northeast towards Lk. Michigan.ReplyDelete
Ahh Novak, you beat me to the punch. I'm actually thinking the GEM and Euro will be very close to where they were yesterday, if not even better looking. The dynamics and overall set up looks too good on the models for something not to happen. It is a common error with the GFS when phasing is going on with the jet streams to not handle systems correctly. Bring on the new model runs!ReplyDelete
ok there are some things I like and dislike, the new run of the ECMWF is a complete disorganized mess, it doesn't close the system off at 850 mb until it gets over Milwaukee, while 6 hours earlier it closes it off at 700mb, but over the international border. I really like the operational GEM,UKMET, and The GFS ensemble means, as all three strengthen the system at the surface when it's Iowa, the track seems to be a little questionable after that, but this thing still shows some promise. Tomorrow mornings runs will tell a lot, if not than the 18z run of the GFS.ReplyDelete
This is just a continued mess that we call the winter of 2011-2012. Just when you think you've got the perfect track, with cold air around, there has always been some little factor that has kept a system from living up to its full potential. Normally, this track is quite good for east central and southeast Minnesota, and a good chunk of western Wisconsin. For some odd reason the models refuse to either develop a nice trowel or comma head with this low. The phasing looks like it won't happen as late as what the MPX discussion said earlier, and yet something is missing within the models. I wish I could figure it out, but quite frankly I don't have the full knowledge of upper level dynamics , and the very intricate things of forecasting. What I do know is there is a big trough digging in to our west, a low pressure system developing near the base of the trough, and the trough eventually tilting negative. The Gulf connection still looks like it will be there, and I still am really waiting for the models to get a firm grasp on what is going to happen. I swear every model run I look at, I want to throw my laptop out the window because of the amount of confusion and flip flopping they have done so far this season. Seriously, can't these systems just be in agreement among the models, and show more consistency? 12z should hopefully hint at a better solution, with the 00z Sun (run at 6pm on Saturday) getting the best look with the trough fully onshore by then.ReplyDelete
Definitely need this storm to come ashore to gain more confidence. I believe the appropriate way to forecast this storm is to tell the public that there is potential for a significant snow Sunday into Monday. Most of the signals are there:ReplyDelete
- Amplified trough that turns negative by Monday
- Strong vortmax at the base of the trough
- Moisture fetch from the Gulf
- Low level jet (I would like to see this pointed more towards so. MN)
- Surface low deepening over WI & Great Lakes
- Cold air in place (Temps are well below zero over much of MN this am)
I'm not sure why the models neglect to develop QPF over so. MN on Sunday. Perhaps the low levels need time to saturate? Maybe T'Storms will steal moisture from this storm? No strong focus like a warm front? We need more model runs to establish consistency, but right now, something does smell even though it looks promising.
What is interesting is that the 00z Canadian GEM is much more robust with QPF over all of MN tomorrow. If this verifies, then almost everyone can expect an accumulating snow by Monday with parts of the state getting hit hard.ReplyDelete
Latest 12z NAM coming in and it tracks the main surface low from Rapid City to Duluth on Sunday. This would place the significant snow band across nw MN & the Dakotas and keep southern MN in the warm sector with -FRZ. Do we discount this? It is certainly contradicting almost all other models. Frustrating.ReplyDelete
I don't think there is any doubt that somebody in MN is going to receive a healthy snowfall by Monday AM.
From last night's Heavy Snow Discussion from the peeps at the HPCReplyDelete
".NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
USED A BLEND OF THE UKMET...GFS AND CANADIAN THERMALS AND THEIR
SURFACE SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT
AND EVOLUTION OF CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUAL SPIN
UP OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE JET AXIS EXITING THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIKELY
BEGIN THE PROCESS FOR MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...ATOP THE
SHALLOW CANADIAN AIRMASS DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. H85-H7 WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED BY AN
INTENSIFYING SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS ERN KS
AND NRN MISSOURI ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS
TO THE LEFT OF THE H85-H7 LOW ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN."
The GFS is slightly south of the Nam. By 6pm tonight the GFS has a 55knt low level jet entering MN, the storm is starting to wrap up when I thought it should. However the Jet seems to miss most of the Gulf moisture. AS the storm starts showing a - tilt by sunday night, the jet drops dramatically into the Southern Mississippi Valley up into the Mid Ohio Valley, that is where the gulf moisture will reside at. ....As a side note I totally agree with the SPC in painting a slight risk area Sunday for that area, in particular North Central Mississippi. Our storm looks very impressive as it drops to sub 990 mb's as it approaches Green Bay, it just doesn't have that much moisture to work with....Now we wait for the foreign models to weigh in. *sigh*ReplyDelete
I have officially given up on nature this winter. To hell with winter, lets just get to spring and summer and hope for some good thunderstorms (without the damage to homes and properties, of course) On that note, NWS will probably throw up some advisories to handle our freezing drizzle/rain/frz rain/sleet/snow risk...probably will be fairly widespread too. If by some miracle the 00z runs tonight dramatically change, then I will get some faith back. Otherwise, any system of promise I see heading our way I will just discount as being a miss, or a dusting, or some type of freezing mist because that is all we can seem to come by.ReplyDelete
Duane, and all other winter weather lovers, not all is lost just yet, the HPC is going with a UKMET/CMC Global solution.Delete
I have a feeling it could be some tough skiing tomorrow. Rain/freezing rain doesn't tend to do GOOD things for the hills!ReplyDelete
@AB....still to much uncertainty as to what will happen, but fz drizzle is likely, I think. But just like politics, all weather is local. Will it snow in back yard? Will I get freezing rain? This system is setting up for a significant severe event over the Lower Mississippi Valley into the the Tennessee Valley and even as far north as the Mid Ohio valley. Will it be as strong as a March or April system? I doubt it. But given the 0-6km shear values, I wouldn't be surprised if a EF-2 or 3 gets reported tomorrow night. Very strange indeed for January. Seeing what's going on it's no wonder our system will be starved for moisture.ReplyDelete
Now I wasn't here 30 years ago but could you image the excitement and comments that would be flying around this blog after we received 21 inches on this date 30 years ago and only 2 days prior we had 17 inches,that's nearly 40 inches on the ground,that would have been a seen,wish I was here for that,something like that doesn't seem possible again especially with the way this winter is goingReplyDelete
Interesting look on the GFS for Monday morning...finally a deformation band of snow forms and looks to impact mostly western WI and far eastern MN. Still questions to be answered, but if this is mostly sleet or frz rain, it is becoming a bit of a concern. Waiting on the GEM and Euro now.ReplyDelete
Gotta hand it to Paul Douglas. He stuck with a no-snow forecast all week while other places pegged the metro for a nice blanket. Disappointed that we just can't get a snow storm. Even 4-5" would be nice...ReplyDelete
Who am I supposed to believe? Novak is telling me to change my travel plans for Sunday and the TV mets are telling me that we'll get some mixed precip that might make things a little slick, but the real concern will remain in far northern MN. Sure would be nice to get some level of agreement...but I guess that pretty much sums up this winter, doesn't it?ReplyDelete
This is going to be a close call for the MSP metro. The storm may be starved for moisture as indicated by others above, but it certainly will have dynamics. If it can plug into moisture tomorrow evening, then it will truly get interesting here in eastern MN.ReplyDelete
Since the models are all over the place, I've decided to go back to the basics and simply look at the surface low track and expect wintery weather to develop on the northwest side of this track. That would place much of MN and northern WI in a zone for accumulating snowfall and some ice.
Paul Huttner seems to be elevating the situation for tomorrow night as well: http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/updraft/archive/2012/01/model_shift_growing_snow_threa.shtmlReplyDelete
Set up new thread to discuss Sunday/Monday storm possibility.ReplyDelete