Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Late January Weather Discussion

Please post comments here regarding late January weather....

108 comments:

  1. Reposting comments from Bemaki:

    I think that there is a BIG bust coming our way. Every time I look back on the radar screen, the band just gets stronger and stronger. I am going to check the meso analysis for any signs quick and see what I come up with.

    What appears to be going on is that there is a weak pacific air mass coming east into North Dakota. From the south, there seems to be a mT just barley reaching nebraska, but providing just enough energy to get these snow showers going.

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  2. Sorry, Bill. I have a tendency to enter the first atrain I see. Also, This strain is rather difficult to see, so I missed it.

    Once again, sorry Bill.

    Thanks for posting it here, though.

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  3. zzzzzzzz, that might be a good description of the weather for late january. looks like we continue with the above normal temps and lack of any real storms for minnesota.

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  4. Surprise snow burst overnight, huh? Was this in any forecasts at all? I sure didn't know about it until just now when I checked weather.com (don't get me started on the fact that they're calling it "severe")...

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  5. Man cant even get a "lucky" snow,no mention of snow chance until this afternoon for tonight,then periodically I've taken a look at the radar and here we go again.......damn dry air(a nice doughnut all the way around the metro,could be snowing on the east side(woodbury and points east)incredible!last year we were getting hit with everyone of these,this year its like were in a snow globe with no snow.

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  6. Be cautious when looking at snow on radar, especially near the Twin Cities. The angle of the radar beam combined with the composition and lightness of snow often makes it appear as though there is nothing falling, when really there could be. Taking a peak at different tilts of the radar using GR2Analyst, as well as looking at La Crosse's radar, there are returns showing up over the metro. The returns, however, are quite light.

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  7. @big daddy,truly amazing,I couldnt agree more...but it sucks to say the least

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  8. I couldnt sleep,so I looked out the window and then the radar,are you kidding me with this black hole,what does mother nature have aganist us this year,its like she likes teasing us,no wonder shes a woman!

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  9. @Bemaki and others,I'm here to report that snow has made it to the ground here in eden prairie and the metro,if the heavier band seen on the radar makes it to the metro I wouldnt rule out an quick 1/2" to 1 1/2" inches,and may affect the AM commute,this was a surprise to say the least,nothing mentioned till late afternoon yesterday.......also if the euro is correct, Friday could be a snowy scene from the metro on south.

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  10. Never mind snow is shrinking in coverage on radar,another .01 maybe the official tally...woo-hoo!

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  11. Dynamics were horrible for this tiny snow system and it is no surprise the dry air sucked the life out of this puppy. Obviously, radar can be very misleading sometimes. You have to give the models credit on this one. Plus, you have to question any forecaster who mentioned accumulating snow overnight.

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  12. gotta be careful with radar returns especially in the winter and depending how far the echos are from the doppler. many times what the radar is picking up are the clouds or virga, even tho an area looks like they are getting snow or rain it could just be cloudy.

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  13. Hey peeps I need some help from all the weather lovers out there. I can get sea surface temps and forecast temps, that's not a problem. But does anyone have a link to the sea surface temps anomalies? I'm hearing rumors that the gulf temps a pretty warm, but I can't confirm it. It would be nice to know how warm they are compared to climatology. It would help me a great deal with my Feb forecast....Thanks in advance.

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  14. http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/weekly-sst.php

    Is this what you are looking for?!

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    Replies
    1. Jaw...Thank you yes it is...although it hasn't been updated to drop the 1970's and add the 2000-2010, that should work...doesn't look to warm to me. You rock..Thanks!!! but at least it's not below normal.

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  15. one of the reasons MN has been so dry this winter and fall is the gulf coast. tonight is a perfect example. a huge squall line is marching thru the deep south and texas has been getting drenched. this halts the movement of gulf moisture northward and it cannot get here on a regular basis.

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  16. I'm surprised nobody is talking about that sneaky looking 'Clipper' that has an eye on the Midwest for Friday. The Euro models are really impressive with the development and dump several inches of snow over so. MN.

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  17. @Novak,I did mention it above,if the euro verifies it will be a snowy scene,but has been the case all winter the metro will be grazed again,at best 1-2 for metro or less,which is where most of us live.....and hearing most people they would like something that isnt such a yawner...someone a few days ago said wake up when a real storm comes to town...I feel the same way.

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  18. Well, if everyone waiting for the 6"+ snowfall, they may have to wait until next season. We need to take what we can get.

    BTW, am I missing something? I just tuned into all the TV weather forecasts and only KARE mentioned the possibility of receiving snow for Friday. Granted, B. Jensen only mentioned an inch at most, but....

    All the model data, 12z ECMWF & UKMET along with the 00z GFS are pointing towards several inches of snow. Only the NAM is the outlier right now. We may not receive snow in the MSP metro on Friday, but I believe it is irresponsible to not at least mention that we should keep an eye on this 'Clipper'. Right now, there is no doubt in my mind that Friday's PM commute will be greatly affected by this storm. This will not be a huge storm, but certainly worth mentioning. I guess time will tell.

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  19. Model agreement is starting to come around for the quick clipper coming through on Friday. We could continue to discuss it here, unless Bill wants to start a new thread to see how the mets handle it. :) I put parts of central and southern MN, as well as western WI in maybe getting 1-3 inches of snow at this point, but we'll see how things pan out.

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    1. Let's just keep this thread for now.

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    2. Sounds like a plan :) 00z Euro looks similar to the GFS, but probably a little more aggressive on its QPF output. Chances of precip should be raised by the NWS overnight tonight, and 1-3 still looks to be the range we'll be looking at.

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  20. Kare 11 this morning says "dusting up to an inch" in the metro, but 1-2 inches in areas Mankato/south.

    Weather.com acknowledges snow chances, "less than one inch," and and west of the loop, "little to no accumulation."

    NWS says 1-2 inches possible.

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  21. It never amazes me how computer models can differ so much when handling a storm system. We are only 24-36 hours out, and still no agreement between the Euro and U.S. models. My money is on the Euro at this point and I'm going to bet on a difficult Friday PM commute.

    BTW, I'm not touching Tuesday's storm at this point. Huge BUST potential when considering the lack of cold air to work with.

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  22. There goes Mr. Hype Novak again,seriously Novak what is so difficult about an inch of snow,and even if it falls during the commute the temps will be near the thawing point so the roads will be wet or slushy at best,not snow covered and icy,you even mentioned in a earlier comment that the metro might not see any snow but "the pm commute will be greatly affected",so which is it if no snow in the metro,who is affecting?Albert Lea?Mankato?the biggest population is around the metro,who gives a crap about Albert Lea's commute,I hate to see what you actually would say when we get a 4inch storm,as for Tuesday great don't touch it the less we hear from you then the greater the potential for a blockbuster snow,the more you speak the rain will come.

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    1. @Anonymous You're going to have to figure out a way to comment in a way that doesn't come across as a personal insult to others on this blog. There's no place for that on this blog. Thanks for your understanding.

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  23. MPR(PH) says conflicting models(like Novak)so why no crap for him,just cuz Novak likes to speak his mind?....back off Anonymous! Btw,did anyone see the graph on Paul Hutner MPR blog this morning,the one with snowfall after compaction going out till next Thursday am I correct in seeing the GFS models showing some 6-10 inches for next Tuesday or am I reading it wrong.

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  24. Anonymous...have you ever driven in the Twin Cities when it snows? If you have, you'd notice it only takes a LITTLE moisture on the highways to get people to drive completely insane. So large snowflakes flying tomorrow will affect the commute...even if the roads aren't frozen.

    Lay off of Novak, please. We come to this sight to get weather insights from him, randyinchamplain, Duane, big daddy, et al. Their opinions are what makes following weather fun.

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  25. Everyone seems to be targeting south of the metro as seeing the most, but from what I've seen on the GFS, GEM, and European models I feel like this set up will be further north, right through central and eastern MN, as well as western WI. It is still possible that things could bump south, but for now it looks like the Twin Cities could be in the middle of the best band of snow. Again, this isn't looking too major at this point, but a couple inches of snow is looking more and more likely over a fairly wide area of central/southern MN and western WI.

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  26. Something a little off topic, but will come in handy for radar watchers out there. With the upcoming transition to dual polarization radars, there will be some extra products available for viewing. Here's a link that offers some training on the new products available once the new radar system is installed. I believe I saw that La Crosse will be doing theirs in April, and Chanhassen will be doing theirs in August or September. Enjoy!

    http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/COURSES/DUALPOL/OUTREACH/INDEX.HTML

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  27. Anonymous: Since you obviously have little, if any, experience in weather or forecasting, we need to give you a break. Perhaps you recently moved to MN from a southern state?

    Anyway, like rain & thunderstorms, precipitation from snow events often vary from one place to another. In fact, you could travel from Plymouth to Woodbury and experience a whole different scenario within a 30 mile drive during a snow event. Of course, this makes forecasting quite difficult especially in a large urban area. So, when forecasting, it is best to try to generalize as much as possible leading up to a storm, then try to pinpoint exactly what will happen immediately before the onset of precipitation.

    Meanwhile, as other posts of noted, it doesn't take much precipitation to cause significant traffic problems on the metro freeways. I've experienced massive traffic snarls simply from an inch or two of snow. Hell, I've seen this happen even when only a trace of snow falls. Were you hiding under a rock on Monday AM when the MSP metro experienced a traffic snarl nightmare from 1.8" of snow? Do you not realize that many southern MN schools canceled due to only a glaze of ice and a couple inches of snow?

    The reason why weather broadcasts are often the #1 most watched segment within a news broadcast is because the public wants to know if their lives may be affected by the weather. It could be a little event, or a large event, it doesn't matter.

    Oh, and by the way, I believe in talking about storms that not only have the potential to affect the MSP metro, but all of the Upper Midwest, especially so. MN.

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  28. @novak, i am a different anonymous, but you rock. don't let these jokers get under your skin.

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  29. NWS now saying 1-3 inches for the metro...

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  30. the 18z gfs just ramped things up a little bit, not a great deal but more interesting than the 12z run. I will wait until I can look at the bufkit sounding, and other products with that program before I take a stab at snow totals. My gut felling is that it saturates the column to quickly.

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  31. Look,we weather geeks tend to get hyped when we havent had a decent event in a long time, and a fairly minor one pops up. Live with it. If you can't stand it, leave this blog and start a new blog under your ideals. I am pretty sure you can find a following.

    I love this community, and I do not want anyone attacked on this site. Just because Novak has experiance does not mean that he has to be outsided by us ameuters. In fact, I appreciate having someone on here who is an expert on weather.

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  32. Heh, if I had a nickel for every time somebody here told someone else to leave if that person didn't like something. Even if that something was the weather. Ugh.

    Anyway, Wunderground says 1-2 inches Friday. I can live with that.

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  33. the hardest thing about this winter is the fact most of our storms have been clippers. most of the time a clipper might only have a 50-75 mile wide band of decent snow. so most models even 1-2 days out have a tough time honing in on the exact track. just a shift of 25 miles has a huge difference on where the 2" band will set up.

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  34. Using a blend of the Ruc and the ECMWF, PW values are meager, less than .30 inches. QPF's are less than .15" Six hours before the models show the onset of precip, there is a big dry area below 600-700mb that reaches all the way to the surface. I really don't think the column will saturate that fast even though the baroclinic zone shows some lift. Therefore I'm going with between .50 and 1" of snow at MSP. I do believe that there will more snow north of the metro than south. (I believe that I heard Belinda says more snow south, we will see)....Noak your thoughts about how quickly the column will saturate would be welcomed as well as Duane's or anyone else who dares to go there.

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  35. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 26, 2012 at 8:15 PM

    1.1" at airport when all is said and done. Bank it. I have my sources.

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  36. @ Plymouth Weather Lover....looks like your sources are close to my way of thinking, would love to find out who your sources are and what resources they base the forecast on, in other words why do they say 1.1"?? just curious

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  37. by the way, to pass on a funny story..my son said two nights ago, no snow for MN on Friday when he was on his tablet device. I said according to who???....he said that was Accu weather's forecast...I said you mean In Accu Weather??? LOL!! I also told him weather.com is more accutate.

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  38. Yep, I like the 1"-2" total that many are predicting for the metro & much of so. MN. We simply have little moisture to work with and it will be difficult to overcome the dry air. It is a quick moving system so we will likely only have a window of a few hours for accumulation. However, the timing of the snow couldn't be worse for commuters. It should make for an interesting PM tomorrow on the roads.

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  39. As usual, the track of this low is going to be key because I do believe that there will be a thin, more intense band of snow just north of the track. I wouldn't be surprised if this strip contained some 3"-4" accumulations. Gut feeling is that the axis of this band will lie from near Fargo to Brainerd to Cumberland, WI.

    Of note, KARE 11 showed no snow over central MN on their 6pm graphic.

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  40. the temps and timing should allow MNDOT to treat the roads before the rush hour, the problem is that during the rush there are so many vehicles on the roads that the plows get stuck in traffic just like the rest of us. So then commuters say MINDOT didn't do their job b/c they didn't see any plows, well what do you expect? Shut down the freeways until the plows can do the job? yeah right.

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  41. I think that band might be seeting up even further north. perhaps grand forks-bemidji-duluth (hwy 2) corridor may get that 2-3" tonight into the morning. not sure if the metro sees anything more than an inch at the most.

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  42. Hey peeps! ...ever wanted to know more about storm structure? ever wanted to be a spotter for the NWS? Sky Warn classed are being set up now. Most of these classes are free and open to the public. You may never want to be a storm chaser but at least you could understand storm structure, and not drive into what you think is a mother nature thing of beauty.

    http://www.metroskywarn.org/cgi-bin/classes.pl

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  43. Roads will be fine,with temps near freezing and snow falling during the daylight hours,MNDOT will have no problem,the problem lies with the idiot drivers.If you live in MN and cant handle an inch of snow then move!

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  44. Woo-hoo 4.5" of snow coming Friday(pause),next Friday is what Inaccuweather says......so that means it wont happen....Randy tell your kid I'm sorry for stealing his thunder on this one.
    Btw,I know you guys aren't forecasting alot today nor are others but I'm smelling a dud again,heck everything we get has been a dud,I know I'm being greedy but we havent seen a storm greater then 4" this year,we usually see some greater events,keep looking Novak(I phoned my friends in Alaska to unleash the beast)perhaps the end of next week is what they said,what you think?

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  45. The snow is setting up in two swaths, one to the far north/west, and one to the south/west. How these evolve as they move east over the next few hours? Stay tuned...

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  46. For all you snow lovers, there are some reports of a narrow band of 4-8 inches of snow from north of minot, nd to north of grand forks,nd. this band is headed into far northwest MN. so places like theif river falls should get a good snow this morning, granted its 300 miles from the metro! but hey, its something...

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  47. I agree everyone. This one is setting-up to be another dud for the MSP metro since the storm track is further north than expected. This would place the more appreciable band of snow over northern MN from GFK to DLH. However, we will get just enough snow this PM to cause issues on the freeways, but I can't see much more than an inch for most locations.

    Looking ahead into next week, it is simply looking to warm in southern MN for anything exciting. I'm holding out hope for a pattern change late next week. ECMWF hints at this for next Friday. This would produce some snow over the Upper Midwest. Given our track record this year, I'm not going to get too excited.

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    1. You have to remember, the ECMWF has been the most accurate of the models this winter so far. And anyways, were overdue for a change, and the bad luck streak has to end somtime. I say this is our best chance yet for a deccent snow.

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  48. http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/162885514159067136/photo/1 shows winter temps moving back in

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  49. It is snowing like mad in Carver County right now. The snow has really filled in and, after a period of ice/sleet, is coming down fiecly. We'll probably see 1-2 inches by the time it's over, but it's blowing around so much that it will be hard to measure.

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  50. Well, the snow stopped...had it been a drier snow, we'd have gotten 2 inches. As is, there's about 1/2" on surfaces, but it's melting quickly.

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  51. Bummer once again... and next week looks to wipe out the snow we do have.

    Those that know, are we still stuck in the same pattern that has plagued us since the last half of 2011 or are things changing?

    Someone had good data on three different patterns that seemed to have us locked into our warmer dryer pattern but then it seemed like things were changing.

    Are we headed into a spring that is a continuation of the drought of the last half of 2011?

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  52. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 27, 2012 at 5:43 PM

    Anyone know what the official snow total was at the airport??

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  53. Thought I heard .6 inches. But I don't know if that's official or not.

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    1. a record breaking 0.1 inches at the airport as of 6pm :)

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  54. Well I'm driving home and wanted to give Novak an update.65mph southbound on 35W is such a bear,maybe I'll run into that .6 difficult commute here shortly,the rate I'm going I should beat the misses home for dinner,better luck next time Novak,if you dare to try

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  55. What the hell happened,I went to sleep around 11am with snow closing in on the metro according to the radar and I woke an hour ago with nothing,it looked impressive before I fell asleep....man I can't trust the radar anymore or it just seems it doesn't want to snow here.I want to use so much foul language right now its not even funny

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  56. Anonymous @ 4:41pm...so you're the one I see all the time texting and driving endangering all our lives...NICE MOVE!!!

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  57. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 28, 2012 at 12:18 AM

    Let's start talking about next Fridays storm. All the dynamics could be in place!!

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  58. @Plymouth Weather Lover,here you go this is what a few have for next Friday( BTW-there may be 2 disturbances this weekend,but both are weak and neither drops more then a inch,another event on Tuesday is possible but temps in the lower levels look to warm so at best rain/snow mix):
    LOCAL:
    NWS- 20% CHANCE OF SNOW HIGH 34
    KSTP- 30% CHANCE OF SNOW HIGH 30
    WCCO- SNOW CHANCE HIGH 33
    STARTRIBUNE(Todd Nelson,not Paul Douglas)-Light snow HIGH 28
    KMSP/KARE/MPR Have no mention of as of this comment
    NATIONAL:
    WEATHER.COM- CLOUDY(YESTERDAY WAS SNOW SHOWERS)HIGH 32
    ACCUWEATHER.COM- SUNNY(YESTERDAY WAS 5.4INCHES OF SNOW)HIGH 34

    So you see the locals see a potential and the nationals have backed off,also of note with a ridge moving in for most of the work week we will have 4/5 days in a row of aboving freezing temps(40 not out of the question)so any snow in your yard now may be history by weeks end(yes AB you will see grass again)so in closing we could use next Fridays possible event to whiten things up again,as a side note I see the 2nd week of February being colder highs mostly in the 20's(couple degrees either side of average,which by then will be creeping into the upper 20's)

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  59. @big daddy...out here, the grass has never been fully covered this winter, even when the airport got 4.4 inches!!! As I've been saying for awhile, as long as they skiing is good, at this point, the lack of snow doesn't bother me anymore. I'd still love to see a big storm, but just having snow? Eh.

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  60. 12 Gfs thoroughly depressing. At least it's adjusting it's late week/weekend flow. Maybe it's latching on to Day 6-7 snow chance per last few runs of ECMWF

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  61. Looking at the long-range forecast, all I see are some tumbleweeds passing by.

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  62. zzzzzzzzzz.........

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  63. February will be a forecaster's nightmare, there is a pattern change the models are trying to latch on to, but something happened with the 12z runs, as opposed to the last 0z runs. The maps that I'm going to post are valid for a time period that are 12 hrs apart, but the difference's are huge.

    This was the 28/0z run comparing the GFS with the Euro at hour 168. Notice that they are quite similar with the strength of the ridge to our west. Also note that neither model shows a cut off low over the SW US, and further that neither model shows a ridge over the SE US.

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/500cf168gif0z.gif

    Now the 28/12z run...Oh my the Euro shows a cut off low, and the GFS shows a building SE US ridge, the question begs to be asked, is the ridge that has been advertised over the Western CONUS going to materialize? For those that want a 6"+ snow storm, you better hope the GFS is correct.

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/500cf168gif12z.gif

    if these links don't work let me know.

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  64. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 28, 2012 at 7:15 PM

    Let's go GFS. As unrealiable as you have been, I am counting on you!!

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  65. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 28, 2012 at 7:19 PM

    The radar is filling in. Hang on, we may get .5 - 1" at the airport. I have my sources.

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  66. Now lets compare the NAO and the AO from 0z to 12z...

    This is the AO from the 0z run.....

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/00zallaogif0z.gif

    and the AO from the 12z run...

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/12zallaogif12z.gif

    now the NAO from the 0z....

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/00zallnaogif0z.gif

    and from the 12z run....

    http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/12zallnaogif12z.gif


    The PNA I won't won't show....the 12z ECMWF and GFS show it still positively strong.

    so what does this tell me?....personally I think the se ridge that the gfs wants set up is incorrect, I really like the idea of the Euro setting up for NE Coastal storms, w/o the ridge that the GFS has suddenly showed, I don't think we have chance of storms cutting up over us. Snow fall for us in Feb will I think be around 4" if that. It's ironic that those of you who moved here to experience winter weather, may be thrown a big curve ball this year....stay tuned time will tell.

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    1. Randy I'm not liking what your singing

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  67. @Plymouth looks to me the best energy for tonight will slide just south west of the loop,loop may see just a coating/dusting,so if you live in Plymouth don't expect much,unless the whole area of precip stalls which is unlikely

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  68. sorry big daddy that's what I'm seeing....no wish casting involved

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  69. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 28, 2012 at 8:54 PM

    @ big daddy I am sure you are right about Plymouth area. And it won't stall as it has too much air pushing behind it. But it is snowing pretty good here. I think we might get a quick .5-1" as stated above. Keep it coming. An inch here and there adds up. Still hoping for next Friday. C'mon ridge!!

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  70. @Plymouth,yeah its snowing pretty good,just wish we had more of these,or more snow in general,it just makes everything prettier when covered in a fresh blanket of white,I think I'm going for a walk while its snowing,who the hell knows what it will happen again

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  71. Quick "inchish" of snow out here and a little more should fall before it wraps up. It fell fast and furious as a light, fluffy, sparkling snow. Just enough to shovel.

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  72. I have no idea how much snow we got here

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  73. good luck everyone, Novak and Duane have a good time forecasting the next few days. I will be without a computer for the next 3 or 4 days, so I have to put this out a bit earlier than I would like to.

    For February temps:

    The first 10 days a absolute blow torch, temps could be 10-15° above normal.

    The Last two weeks comparing it to climatology, even though temps start to warm, (climatology speaking) I think this year it will be pretty close to normal, so near normal temps for the last two weeks.

    I think Feb overall will be very dry. Total snow fall about 3" maybe 4 on the outside, we could see some liquid precip around .10

    On a side note: even though it doesn't effect us in our back yard, I think that Feb. has a chance to very active in the southern coastal states from Louisiana to northern Florida and points north and east from there. In other words from southern Illinois and southern Indiana to points south and east. I dearly hope I wrong with that, but I don't think so.

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  74. Randy I'm still not liking the tune your singing,I. Like the near normal temps(cuz I don't care for frigid temps)and normal temps still support snow,but bring on the precip,I don't like that!next your going to tell me were going to have snowstorms in April?

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  75. Just took a peek at the 12z stuff, and I somewhat agree with what Randy is saying. I'm not sure the above normal temps will last for 10 days. Long range models are pumping up a pretty good ridge out west and putting a trough in the east. The NAO and AO look to remain negative, with some models really putting the AO into the tank. The MJO, which has also really played a big part into our quiet, above normal temp winter, is forecast to head towards a phase that drops our temps across the plains and eastern US. Snowfall is a tough one, but I personally don't see a good pattern in the near term for us to get that major storm. That being said, it could end up being a clipper train that eventually sets up. For now though, it looks quiet and we should see quite a bit of melting over the next several days. Those areas with minimal snow will probably be seeing a lot more grass by next weekend.

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  76. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 29, 2012 at 9:48 PM

    C'mon, let's get some snow in here. I think it could feel like "winter" if we just got that one big 12" snowstorm. Keep looking, everyone. It was to be out there. The former farmer in me can just feel it!

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  77. I thought it felt plenty like winter today! Temps in the 20s, snow covering *most* areas (though some would prefer more), winter carnival, ice sculptures, snowmobile shows, ski hills 100% open, what was missing?

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  78. Another doughnut around the metro,mother nature hates us!

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  79. The National Weather Service can cancel local warnings and such. Have they thought about just throwing in the towel and canceling Winter? :-D

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  80. @AB

    Yeah, I'd agree it felt plenty like winter Sunday. I spent the day at MOA with my family. Walked out around 8pm and got blasted in the parking ramp by a fierce cold wind -- instant headache. Today is nicer.

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  81. The winter of 2006-2007 up to this point had less snow than we've had so far this winter.
    Then we got 2 big back-to-back storms the last week of February and the first week of March that gave us about 20 inches of snow.
    So, although I admit things do not look that good for winter/snow lovers at the moment, there is still hope. It happened in the past, it can happen again.

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  82. Hey now...12 NAM starting to look interesting for Friday

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  83. C'mon American models, REALLY? Could you be more cruel? Quit teasing us damn it.

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  84. Isn't it funny how the minute the models finally start to warm-up Alaska, they immediately brew a nice Winter Storm over the U.S.? I truly believe in the Alaska/U.S. tele-connection.

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  85. One fun (and frustrating) thing about attempting to forecast things is Mother Nature's ability to throw a curve ball every once and a while. NAM, GEM, and GFS all starting to dig that trough further west, and are showing signs of developing a low pressure system at the base of the trough. High pressure that is also showing up will play a factor in this system, if it does actually develop. It is something to watch over the next few days. I am, however, anxiously watching the ECMWF come in.

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  86. Well, the European is lame for now. It doesn't wrap up a low and send it this way, but keeps it more of an open wave and gives a good soaking to the southern US. Even though the others are showing something here, I have no reason to believe those outcomes will happen. It is still something to monitor over the next week, but I'm not holding my breath.

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  87. I'm assuming no one is putting ANY stock in the GFS 12Z that's showing a healthy shot of moisture Sat night into Sunday, right?

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  88. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 30, 2012 at 4:34 PM

    That's what I'm talkin' about--snow talk. There are some things showing up (snowing up!) on the maps and that gets us going. Let's hope everything lines up. I can see another thread starting pretty soon with snow predictions......Let's roll.....

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  89. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 30, 2012 at 8:36 PM

    Not to toot my own horn, but I thought that trough might dig a little deeper come Friday several days ago. It was in the cards, my sources say. Novak, are you buying it yet?

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  90. No, I'm not buying yet. The GFS solution just doesn't make sense right now. Are we really going to buy a cut-off low that spins from the Rockies into the Midwest that dumps 12"+ of snow across much of the Plains? Keep in mind, there is little, if any Arctic air to work with AND the Euro has nowhere near the same solution at this point. Now, if the Euro trends in the GFS direction during the next couple of runs, then I will be ready to talk.

    However, it is fun to see how the TV stations are handling the weekend. KARE mentioned nothing and DD/KSTP hinted at the GFS storm solution. This obviously shows that DD believes in warning well ahead of time while B. Jensen is much more conservative.

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  91. Ian Leonard tweeted: keeping an eye on the weekend for a chance of snow...too far out for now, stay tuned

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  92. And Ken Barlow noted a chance of very light snow on Saturday on the 11 p.m. show. He clearly wasn't very jazzed about anything substantial.

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  93. Wcco,don't remember his name,said if your looking for substantial snow going to have to wait for the weekend,then his 7 day forecast had snow icons Friday thru Sunday,but temps were above freezing 34-36.........who the hell knows I'm sure it will all change tommorrow

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  94. GEM shifted south, Euro spins up the low and it stays south and pretty much dies out. Unless there are some big changes down the road here, I wouldn't be banking on much of anything this weekend. We'll keep watching though.

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  95. Sven Sundgaard this morning made a point of saying the weekend could get interesting, but with pessimism at best.

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  96. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 31, 2012 at 8:47 AM

    The hype is building....everyone is getting excited. Seems too warm for something too exciting, but we also know that some of the biggest storms happen in March, even though a lot of warm air is in place. It is interesting that they are all hinting at it so they are all putting some importance on the various models, as all of over as they are.

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  97. The 12z run of the GPS appears that the energy stays south of MN Disclaimer: (untrained / amateur eye).

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  98. The GFS is truly a P.O.S.! It has no idea what to do with this storm system and is simply throwing crap out there to see if it will stick. I'm simply not going to totally buy into anything that the U.S. models are selling until the Euro concurs. However, it is fun watching the GFS make a fool of itself. :)

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  99. In the meantime,si la ve'(good bye)to the snow,40's is the new 20's,could be worst my brother just text me and it is 70 degrees in central New Jersey

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  100. Alas, just posted a new thread to freshen-up the electronic landscape.

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