Sunday, January 15, 2012

Some Warm Predictions for Next Sunday

Although the Twin Cities is set to endure the coldest days of the winter so far (and perhaps all winter) in a mere matter of days, some forecasters are already targeting what could be a record warm Sunday a week from today. As we all know, such extended forecasts are prone to significant error (witness the fact that today's high of 40, was predicted to be 28 only three days ago), so we thought we'd put this one to the test. Per below, the spread in forecast highs ranges from 34 to 44. The record high for next Sunday is 51.

Tweet from KSTP's Patrick Hammer

Here are the forecasts we could find. We look forward to assessing these predictions a week from today.

WCCO: 36
KSTP: 34
FOX: 34
KARE: "30s"
NWS: 37
TWC: 43
Accuweather: 32
Strib:41
Intellicast: 44

66 comments:

  1. A forecaster is showing amazing skill or amazing foolishness forecasting record warm temps are possible on Day 7 given the fast flow pattern settling in this week.

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  2. Also interesting to see KSTP notes record warmth is possible yet they only forecast a high of 34. Do people generally prefer deterministic (single value) forecasts like this or would a range be better, with the range increasing/decreasing based on forecaster confidence? In this example, for a Day 7 forecast, instead of just forecast 34 perhaps a better method would be "34 (32 to 50)" thus indicating the most likely value and also the range given uncertainty.

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  3. The 34 KSTP forecast was from Dave Dahl. The suggestion of possible record warmth was from KSTP colleague Patrick Hammer.

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  4. KSTP this morning (jonathan Yuhas) had a high of 32 for Sunday.
    NWS 39.
    Given how temperatures have always trended higher I would not be surprised if we get into the mid 40s.

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  5. Are there any current snow predictions for tonight/tomorrow?!

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  6. most forecasters are in the .5 to 1.5 range.

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  7. Wow! If the 12z GFS verifies, we are looking at a MASSIVE storm system for early next week. The GFS upper level dynamics are out of this world. Really..REALLY? Please, don't tease us like this. Regardless, this one will also be fun to watch and Bill will be all over this later this week and weekend.

    What broadcast Met will be the first one to jump on this impressive storm solution?

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  8. If I were the betting type, I would put all my marbles on Dahl! As a fellow snow-lover, it would be surprizing if he were able to contain his excitement!

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  9. I saw that system Novak, but it looks like a warm system at this point (more rain than snow). Temps do look warm for next Sun, but don't count out the possibility of a fresh snow pack from a system that could come through at the end of this week (per the ECMWF). Those records could be tough to get to if there is 4-8 inches of snow on the ground. As for the snow tonight...looks like a good chance at 1-2 inches for the metro. It will be light and fluffy, so easy to brush off the vehicles.

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  10. I took a look at the gfs:

    It blew my socks off!

    Oh please!

    Let this verify!!!

    Let us keep our fingers crossed and hope that this does not turn out like the retrograde that it showed us earlier in the season.

    A while back (I don't know how far) I had seen a good storm from the GFS, but it was in the good for speculation mode. This may have already verified!!

    During the 0z run by the euro (at the end) It looked like a good low was developing over Colorado, but the time cut it off before we could see what it did with it.

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    1. Taking a look at the euro, it does show the low as well.

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  11. TWC now calling for 47 on Sunday.

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  12. Bill-

    I noticed that the time was two hours off to the actual posting time of the comments.

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  13. @bemaki Seems that blogger is having issues with the posting times of comments. See also: http://www.google.com/support/forum/p/blogger/thread?tid=54f1b7fcf9d72011&hl=en . Thanks for bringing it to my attention... hopefully it will correct itself.

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  14. Upon closer examination, this storm is futher verified by the fact that it will come into existance thirty-six hours from now as an unusual apendagee from another storm in the far west pacific. somewhere, somehow, someone is going to be affected by this storm.

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  15. @bemaki Lets hope for an easterly shift in that system, because with the look it has now, it would be a complete mess of rain, sleet, and snow. I would rather have systems be all snow than have mixing, but if that does verify it will be just a sloppy mess of everything. Convective snows would certainly be possible, even maybe thunderstorms in the warm sector. It will be interesting to see if the models keep it or not, since it is so far out.

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    1. First:

      Let us hope it exists

      Runs that show it:

      GFS

      Models that start showing it, but are cut off by time:

      NOGPAS
      ECMWF

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  16. wouldn't be surprised to see close to 3" here with this system tonight and tomorrow.

    http://www.spc.nssl.noaa.gov/exper/sref/cgi-bin-plumes/displayraw.php?prog=map&X=-93.22&Y=44.88&session=../plumesraw/sessions/session.XhtGs14225

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  17. Looking at the GFS, that storm at this point looks like it will keep us in the warm. Bizarre we could be talking about thunderstorms instead of snow early next week.

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  18. I just can't see how we could ever come close to record high temperatures levels this Sunday, especially when considering that we should receive more accumulating snow on Saturday. We will be lucky to get out of the 30s. I would shoot for a conservative high around 34 for Sunday.

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  19. DD says 3" on the SE metro, 1" NW. Sad that I'd be happy with 3"... make it 6" and its a start.

    As for rain next week... crazy, though oddly enough I'd take rain over nothing since things are so dry. The pond behind my house is almost gone where last year it was almost flooded. There has to be many feet difference in just a few months.

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  20. Randy you doing your interstate breakdown on this system for tommorrow,your still out on a limb if your calling for 3" at MSP,most I have seen is 1.5,but like I say you never now how things will shake out when snowfall is forecasted sometimes we get more or less then what is advertized,but I will take 3 inches that's a good start to this so called new pattern,everyone is looking at next Monday,which right now would be a mixed bagged,but we still may have 2 other snowfalls this week,although minor but better then what we have been getting,so let's not jump ahead of ourselves and take it one game or storm at a time,like those Giants from NY,awesome to see them put a smack down on the pack

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    1. Like the Vikings taking their three wins at a time. That must have been tough!

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  21. The Updraft blog (MPR) is calling for several chances of snow this week:

    "It's too early and chaotic to be totally accurate about specific timing and totals, but here's my (Paul Huttner's) best early estimate at this point.

    Tuesday AM: 1" to 2"
    Wednesday PM: Dusting
    Thursday night Friday morning: Another 1"-2"+ potential?
    Saturday: Another couple of inches?
    Sunday: Dusting?
    Next Tuesday: Significant snow chance?"

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  22. That Sunday dusting is going to be tough to come by if highs are anywhere near the current forecasts!

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  23. Like Novak said those Sunday highs are hogwash,mid 30's at best,but like that first comment from P I agree forecast temps should have a range just like snowfall ranges(2-4,3-5,4-8,6-12)we are all accustom to them temps should be a range as well to give a specific number like 47 one week out will hardly be accurate when that day gets here but I'm okay with a range of five like 35-40 40-45,what ever happened to those,I only see it once in awhile

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  24. I noted the MPR blog as well and thought it particularly meaningful given that it tends to be conservative.

    @big daddy I don't know that there's any difference between predicting a high of 47 vs. a high of 45-50. I assume that a forecast temperature is in the middle of an assumed, small range.

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  25. Boy I'm starting to wonder about this system overnight. Those storms to our south are still rocking (Tornado and Severe T-storm warnings at 2am!), and the snow looks to be having a tough time really getting going in Minnesota. This could be a classic case of those storms stealing what little moisture we were going to have up here. Since the morning hours were supposed to be mostly impacted, there is still some time left for things to get their act together, but this is an interesting trend to watch for. I hope it doesn't bust, but given the season in general this wouldn't surprise me.

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  26. dry air again winning out,snow having hard time moving in,I smell bust /dud again,.....btw Sunday highs are coming down, NWS now at 36,strib(PD)down to 34,PD also on board on major storm for early next week Tuesday(1/24)but says too early for specifics

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  27. Storm appears to have moved further south than forecast per the ARX 6z Taff discussion. Looks like most of the metro will stay snow free, ( I'm missing a good chunk of my hide due to mother nature)

    I got up at to look at the Euro, I was kind of excited to see what it had to offer as the earlier run was showing a good chance of more than a foot of snow close to home for the next 10 days, without the monster that the GFS is showing. Now zippo, well not quite that bad, maybe a inch. Sure hope it was a bad run, if not there is going to be some conflicting forecast's out there. BTW the monster according to the GEM gives us a glancing blow, better south and east of here. I don't like what the GFS is showing, it actually allows the monster to push a 1045mb surface high pressure that will set up over Hudson Bay up into Greenland like it was a feather. Haven't like it since it showed up, that's why I didn't comment on it. BTW next Sunday the Euro is a blow torch.

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  28. OMG Its snowing,the snow has made it,it beat the drier air,problem is most of the energy went into saturating the atmosphere,abit heavier snow is further south of metro,1/2 inch can still be squeezed out for metro today,how about we all dont talk about snow for a week(I know not possible)and maybe we can get our dumping we all would like to see,just saying....seeing as when we get excited about any snowfall it doesnt pan out or at best a dusting occurs,its okay Randy all you did was join the group of Mother nature having a feast this year,including myself I was way off with the advisories/watches/warnings from last week storm

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  29. Lets all hop on a plane to Seattle,now thats the place to be for snow this week,are you freakin kidding me 8 inches for Seattle,ahhh our winter blows,down right sucks....Novak your sure your dancing,maybe you need to dance like Tom Cruise in Risky Business with your undies!!!!!just saying.

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  30. I had to laugh... and cry... when I woke up around 2:30am and saw zilch for snowfall. Typical busted winter 2011-12.

    I'm not going to let myself believe we'll get any snow Monday. Its going to be rain or nothing...

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  31. More lowered highs for sunday:

    TWC-41
    ACCU-23

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  32. Obviously, Mother Nature has a wall set-up just south and east of the MSP metro where 1"-2" will fall. I'm really getting tired of the busts and I'm ready to stop predicting snow entirely for the metro. However, out state MN (especially the southeast) will probably get hammered, so what do you do? When accumulating snow comes so close to the metro, you have to place it into your forecast. Oh well, welcome to the life of a schmuck weather forecaster. We are not getting paid for this, are we? If we were, I would really feel bad. :)

    As for this weekend, I just can't imagine that we will get much above freezing for Sunday. I still expect some snow to fall Friday and/or Saturday and that should temper the thermometer on Sunday. I find it interesting how different the GFS is handling the weather pattern when compared to the Euro. Euro is much warmer for this weekend into next week and this would lead to a total BUST with the storm early next week. How can you argue this solution when considering everything we've been through so far this winter season?

    I'm not going to totally jump on board the Winter Storm bandwagon for next week until more conclusive models runs with some synergy come in this week.

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  33. I believe we all need to keep in mind that the toughest aspect of weather forecasting has to be exactly where precipitation will fall and exactly how much.

    It is much easier to predict temperature, wind, cloud cover, etc. I wish if the general public understood just how difficult of an art this is. Especially when forecasting precip. we can only truly give a good general idea of where it may occur. I hope the public understands this. Most probably don't.

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    1. I would just quit getting all hyped a week out over what a computer thinks will happen. Bad forecasting Novak any rum-dum can look a a laptop and see a storm.

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  34. Wunderground says 30 for Sunday.

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  35. Listen "Anonymous", it is not "bad forecasting" since it is all about notifying the public about "potential". I don't know of any weather forecaster who would dare to say "This is exactly what is going to happen" when a storm is approaching. You would be an idiot to do so.

    The truth is, weather forecasting basically combines 3 things: Model Data, Experience and Gut Feeling. If the model data is flawed, then you really have to have some balls to contradict the data with your experience and gut feeling. Any "rum-dum" can simply look at model data or MOS statistics and make a forecast. If you haven't noticed, many individuals on this BLOG have some balls and are often throwing out the model data and forecasting through experience and gut feelings. We are doing this for several reasons:
    1.) The model data has been flawed way too often this season.
    2.) This winter season has been flawed and totally abnormal.
    3.) We are willing to take chances on this BLOG and don't care if we bust because it is a learning experience.

    Also, I don't believe that anybody gets "hyped" on this board. We simply state what we see in the model data and combine that with our experience and gut feelings. You are the one who must be getting excited even at the thought of snow.

    With that being said, I'm expecting a nice blanket of snow to fall on Friday. This snow will feature a 'Champagne Powder' consistency to it that is great for skiing. The model data shows this, my experience tells me that we are due, and my gut feeling says that the 2nd half of our winter season will be different than the 1st half.

    So Anonymous, if you don't like the forecast, suck it and make your own on this board. :)

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  36. Anonymous has got me riled-up and now I need to get up on my soap box and voice my frustration.

    Truth be told, many of us on this board and in the weather forecasting industry have actually had damn good forecasts over the last couple of weeks.

    Why?

    Because when a forecaster predicts the potential for accumulating snow 3, 4, 5 days in advance for an area and it actually occurs very close to your predicted area, that should be considered an accomplishment. Let's not forget that Eau Claire, LaCrosse, Winona all received 3"+ of snow last week and these communities are relatively close to the MSP metro. Also, some areas of southeastern MN & western WI will receive 1"-2" of snow when all is said and done today.

    Granted, the MSP metro and points northwest are getting skunked and busted, but in general, the forecasting has been pretty good when considering how difficult it is to forecast and how wide of an area you need to consider when forecasting.

    Think of it this way, if you were to sit there and simply forecast NO snow the last couple of weeks, the people in Eau Claire, LaCrosse and Winona would be pissed. I don't know of any forecaster who said that there would be a sharp line between the MSP metro and Eau Claire/LaCrosse where you would go from 0" of snow to 6"= of snow over the last couple of weeks. It just doesn't work that way.

    Ok, I'm done now.

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  37. I would hope that true scientific forecasting does not include "gut feeling." Otherwise, we may as well do a rain dance during a drought. But may there really is gut feeling. I suspect it's injected by local TV weather personalities and comes from them simply fudging the NWS numbers to make it look like they did real work.

    And if the models are truly that bad, then I think their methodologies need to be examined very skeptically. Furthermore, we should then acknowledge that our forecasting capabilities are not very good, despite all the toys we have.

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  38. "No one hypes anything on this board" WTF Novak? You are Hype-in- Chief procurer. A guy comes here to look and see what the weather might be and all you read is that 4-8 inches of snow is a real good bet for the TC and not one Met ever mentioned it. Yet you vagabond bond friends of Indie PC model watchers think were going to get a dumping 6 days from now.

    I personally don't care if you can't predict what will happen, but don't disguise your hype for snow as a public service to the "Little People" as fair warning when my morning piss has more moisture value then a Mon/Tuesday snow storm.

    If you all want snow.....great, let it snow like a mother effer. Just don't hide your like for snow as a public service for all us dweebs!

    Have a good day Mr. Novak.

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  39. Focusing some attention to Thursday night-friday storm... The NAM and GFS models are really getting my hopes yet. I don't have the access to the other models or I just can't find them, but it looks as if we could see a nice 6+ inches for somebody around me (Red Wing) come Friday. Don't know why the NWS and the others are quiet on the storm when the models are looking so impressive

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  40. MarkyMark (No Funky Bunch)January 17, 2012 at 11:04 AM

    Sooooo, anyone see any good movies lately?

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  41. @Marc If you go to wunderground, and take a look at their wundermap, they have access to some of the data the European (ECMWF) has. It is a fairly basic navigating site, but if you need any assistance just let me know. Enjoy!

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    1. Marc, here is another great site for more models, but use the weather underground site for snowfall amounts for the ECMWF.

      http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm

      about 2/3rds of the way down you will see this

      00 and 12Z Model Forecast Charts (entire CONUS) from ECMWF, UKMET, JMA JP35, and GEM

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  42. I think Migz said it best in a comment he left on Jan 14th:

    "And I was really surprised to find the wide spectrum of interpretations. Now I just read, take in the parts I can fathom, and thank ya'll for making your posts and helping a total amateur weather junkie/storm chaser understand, bit by bit, what goes in to making a forecast."

    Anonymous, I think you need to relax and put things in perspective. This is a site for WEATHER FANATICS. Some are amateurs, like me, who just like to read what these guys think about the models and local forecasters. Some have been reading model data since I was in diapers.

    I think you are confusing "hype" for "excitement". There are TV-guys (and blog guys) who are notorious for hyping. They'll tease the 10pm news with a quip like "Is there a mega snowstorm brewing for next week?!" The guys on this site report what the models are saying, will OPENLY admit that there's room for interpretation, but will sometimes let it out that they are excited for the possibility of a storm.

    On a personal note, I am VERY thankful to Bill and all the guys for contributing what they do to this site. I don't just go to Accuweather and blindly accept it as forecast-truth anymore. I check here to see what all the sites, stations, and weather-junkies in the area are forecasting and take them all with a grain of salt!

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  43. Time for me to get on the soapbox as well. I really have no problem when people come in here and call a bust for what it is, after all it's called a forecast and not a certain cast. What gets me going is when someone puts the tag Anonymous on their post and then proceeds to rip a individual to no end. IMO that is a shallow, cowardly act and should not be permitted on this site. Most of us that come here do so for 3 reason's. 1) they relay on winter for a income, 2) they partake in the recreational opportunities that winter has to offer or 3) they are just flat out weather enthusiast.

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  44. Anonymous: You are clueless AND gutless.

    I don't know of anybody on this BLOG board that would come straight out and guarantee a "dumping" 6 days in advance. Hell, I don't know of anybody on this board who guarantees snow even 1 day in advance. We all know (except for yourself) that a bust can occur at anytime, even as the storm is on top of you. Nothing is a given in the weather forecasting industry.

    Once again, one of the goals on this board and in the weather forecasting industry in general is to alert readers/public of the "potential" for weather. No weather forecaster, in there right mind, would guarantee a forecast. If you can't take our industry with a grain of salt, then you are truly incompetent and should leave this board.

    By the way, we all would love to hear your day by day interpretations of what will happen the rest of the winter, so have at it. I'm sure it would be comical.

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  45. By the way, all of this talk does bring up an interesting question:

    If MOS statistics/data shows that the MSP airport will get 3.5" of snow tonight, yet an MSP forecaster neglects to forecast snow, is this considered irresponsible even if we DON'T receive a flake?

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  46. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 17, 2012 at 12:40 PM

    You know what, I come to this board because I am a weather lover, as my user name indicates. I will not let a troll get under my skin. The fact that I even acknowledged this person here is more than I should do. With that said, I think that Bill should remove his posts, at least the ones with the inappropriate language and references. I don't read this board to be offended.

    Novak--You Rock!! I know there have been busts this year. But let's keep talking about the next potential storm. I live for that. If a model or chart shows it, then talk about it. I am not alone when I say that I look forward to the next comment from Novak. Please do not stop posting here. I follow his Twitter page and hope that he posts as often as he can. Don't buy into the trolls, Novak. They sit back and enjoy it when they get under someone's skin. Don't give them that satisfaction!

    So...what is the most recent on the next couple of snow events??

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  47. I agree with Plymouth 110% and the others who have responded to Anonymous's sophomoric posts. Bring on the weather model discussion and speculation!

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  48. @Everyone .... Stimulating conversation here.... and in the words of Rodney King, let's all try to get along. :-)

    A few passing thoughts:

    There is obviously a difference between forecasting as a "public awareness heads up" and forecasting as "sport." I initially set this blog up to grade and evaluate forecasters based strictly on their accuracy (and more specifically, for forecasts at a single location: MSP Airport). For lack of a better way of saying it, I wanted to "out" forecasters, primarily television mets, who tended to the extreme -- i.e., predict excessively hot or cold temperatures, excessive drought or precip, or simply suggest things that my gut felt an overwhelming sense of "really??" I'd hoped to gather data that would verify or contradict my suspicions. At some point, sooner than later, I'd like to write up something about what I've learned in the process. Friends often ask me, "so who do you think is the most accurate?" and I feel compelled to give them an in-depth response, as I don't think it's a simple answer.

    Anyway, it's clear to me that there are people who share the strict forecast skill assessment perspective as well as people who want to talk about the models, theories, data, etc., and I welcome that as well. I'm pleased that this blog seems to cater to both interests.

    I also take pride in this being a clean, "intelligent" blog that focuses attention on weather and forecasters, and steers clear of any personal attacks. I'm reluctant to delete comments as I'm a fan of open discussion, but I will delete opinions that seem to go beyond those criteria.

    Not sure what all I'm saying, but those are a few thoughts I wanted to share.

    Onward and upward!

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  49. The ECMWF is now back with the Friday storm. If the track of this storm is true to model predictions, expect 5" to as much as 8" south and east from a line from Mankato to Eau Claire, this would include Reg Wing. What will ARX and MPX do??? If the data keeps presenting itslef as it does now, I think a Watch would be warranted overnight on Wednesday or early Thursday morning. At this time my gut tells me it will mostly be a miss for the metro. But will it do what has happened almost all season??? My gut tells me yes. Personally I'm going with a non Nam solution.

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    1. looking at other modeling that has come in this afternoon, I think even the GFS is to far north, looks like the favored area will be far sw MN and possibly the far southern tier of counties, looks like now that no Adv/watch will be needed. Cold dry air looks to be the culprit.

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  50. Simply put....Thanks Bill

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  51. Yes, the Euro is back with the storm again, and honestly I am a little surprised it is having the issues that it is trying to get a handle on this system. It just goes to show that trying to forecast things this winter seems to be much more of a pain than in previous winters. If you believe the GFS or ECMWF, then probably the I-90 cooridor would see the highest accumulations. However the NAM and SREF are further north with the system, putting the metro into the heart of things. NAM has been consistant, but so has the GFS. Looks like another waiting game to see what happens after the system comes ashore.

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  52. Looks like forecasters are really adjusting temperature outlooks. The forecast high for Thursday in my area is now a balmy +2, and Sunday now looks like it will struggle - as Novak predicted - to get above freezing. Of course, that means any precip early next week would likely be snow. It also means that it will be tougher for precipitation to make it this far north with the colder air in place.

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  53. The NWS has the word "snow" in almost every line of the forecast... but I bet through all those days we get nothing but a dusting.

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  54. Figures. Could the latest 00z GFS be any more of a buzz-kill for central MN on Friday? The way the models are trending, snow will bypass the whole state of MN. The Arctic air will definitely attempt to suppress this storm to the south. We will have to wait for the 12z runs to see if the track continues to shift further south than expected.

    Unbelievable.

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  55. @Novak, this might be like the winter of 2007-2008 where it seemed like everything went south and east during the heart of winter. but as the jet stream lifted north in march and april minnesota finally got some decent snowstorms. i think we have to wait until march and april for our big snows this year.

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  56. Interesting. Ian Leonard was just saying the latest models hinted that it was coming north, more toward the Twin Cities.

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  57. Just up a brand spanking new post to discuss upcoming sub-zero cold and possible Friday snow.

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  58. I guess sleeping during the day,going to a school open house and then back to work you miss alot,wow!Alot was said weatherwise and otherwise from last post and I'm sure we dont want to rehatch it any further,but I second what Randy had to say @Anonymous(who disrespected Novak)put a damn name on it,be mature and stand behind your name......Novak keep up the good work,its been a diffcult winter,all of us have missed in some form or fashion this winter(including the professionals and the NWS),I always look forward to what you have to say cuz we are all weather junkies,now please go find me my snow and bring it home.

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  59. Per latest blog post, I'm curious to gather the group's thinking regarding weather apps: http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2012/01/lets-talk-weather-apps.html

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  60. From what I can tell, today's high was 24 (perhaps it will go a degree higher). I'm thinking this was not the best long-range forecast for any of the weather outlets.

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