Thursday, April 4, 2013

Wet Week Ahead?

The next week seems to hold several opportunities for considerable amounts of precipitation. TMF sat down with Tom Novak from @NovakWeather late on Thursday night to discuss what just might be in the offing. View the video here.

Feedback wanted: We'd seriously love to hear your feedback on the video. Does it hold your interest (be honest)? What do you like about or not like about it? Are there questions you'd like to see asked? Thanks in advance!

Tom sets the record straight in our latest weather video segment.

27 comments:

  1. Great video! I should mention that it just snowed for a few minutes here in St Paul, then stopped. No accumulation. people in my office were freaking out.

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  2. Yep, same snow here on my side of St. Paul (sw side). Crazy.

    Glad you enjoyed the video. Hopefully it's fun and entertaining as well as educational.

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  3. Also, very good technical explanations, which you don't get really anywhere in video/audio form. I wonder if Tom could provide links to those maps (if they're publicly available) so we could view them in detail. I have a page with a hundred links that probably have them, but it's always good to get opinion on which are the best. Thanks!

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  4. I'll ask Tom for that info the next time we do a video (hopefully this weekend).

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  5. You could even do a fancy thing in your video description where you put the timestamp and then the URL (just list them). Then users would know exactly what map is being displayed at that particular time. Maybe you already know how to do this.

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    1. I assume you do those things through YouTube? Also, I wonder if you can do it after the fact. I click on "broadcast" in Google+ and when it's concluded it uploads directly to YouTube.

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    2. Yeah, you would edit the Description field. You could put the timestamps and map URLs there. For example:

      1:53 http://map.com/map.html

      and the timestamp should become its own clickable URL.

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  6. Snowing here in Golden valley! Oh my friend is back to say good-bye.........

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  7. A dusting on grassy areas here in South Minneapolis...

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  8. A solid coating in St. Paul: https://twitter.com/MNforecaster/status/320310262135668736/photo/1

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  9. A nice little April dusting here in Rosemount/Apple Valley.

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  10. If your waiting for significant snowfall in April,keep waiting,NWS poo-poo the midweek so called blockbuster that some of have coined,stating the Euro taking heavier precip south and east of our area,snow showers might occur but those will be fleeting.

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  11. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 6, 2013 at 10:30 AM

    The NWS did not poo poo it. They were discussing the models and the differences between them. The euro has flipped flopped several times. This time of the year is fun to watch as things change up to the last minute with these storms. Bring it!!

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    1. Give up the snow dream Plymouth,Paul Douglas poo-poos the snow potential as well,says over 1"+ of cold rain by Wednesday!Spring is struggling to get here but winter and snow is over.

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  12. From MPX plucked out of their 04/06 mid afternoon AFD

    "UESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE A WET AND DREARY PERIOD OF
    TIME...AS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE
    FOUR CORNERS REGION. INITIALLY EXPECT RAIN TO BE THE PRIMARY
    PRECIP TYPE ON TUESDAY...UNTIL COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON
    WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS
    FROM ONE QUARTER TO ONE INCH ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLY FROM TUESDAY INTO
    THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLOWABLE SNOWFALL."

    Because of lack of model consensus its way to early to tell where.

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  13. Bill, if you and Tom are going to post another video and want to use the gem model output I would recommend these two sites.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?run=12&map=na&mod=gemglb&lang=en

    The first link is good for somethings, but its really hard to see the critical thickness line. The second link it better for it along with 850mb temps.

    http://www.plainsweather.com/wxmap/model/

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  14. There could be a lot of surprised peeps come this mid week.

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    1. If your refering to surprises being a heavy snowfall the NWS is setting the stage in their discussion for their being NOT a major snowfall for most of the CWA,except for maybe the sw corner,for everyone else a colder regime will take over with some light snow or snow showers Wednesday-Thursday timeframe but with warmer ground and light intensity of the snow falling pavements will be wet,grassy areas may collect a good dusting.This doesn't look disruptive and life will go on,the only thing this will effect is the morale of those for a real spring to finally arrive because even after the precip stops falling temperatures look chilly(below average) straight thru the following weekend.

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  15. New weather video with Tom: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=si29ae-Z12s

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  16. Paul Douglas says Marchlike storm midweek.......potentially plowable........I say freakin amazing! And PWL would agree...freakin bring it!

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  17. Here we go again,NWS and Novak have a difference of opinions concerning our mid-week storm,I've started to follow the workings of Tom Novak much more as of late due to Bill tapping into his knowledge/expertise.The morning NWS discussion does mention an transition to snow sometime tommorrow and has at least 40% of snow right thru Thursday,but they also mention qpf has been throttled back due to a more southernly storm track into southern Illoinis,so the effects of the snow will be less/minimal.On the other hand Mr. Novak has a surface low tracking into the Chicago area(considerably further north)and his travel impact map has the MSP metro squarely in the moderate impact with the high impact area just off to the west of MSP.One important note is NWS has 2-3" snow amounts thru Wednesday,Mr.Novak has yet to forecast any snow amounts.
    BTW,like watching the videos Bill,maybe you can ask Mr.Novak on the next video why he thinks the storm will track further north then what the NWS is thinking,thus giving us an more impactful snow event.

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  18. I haven't checked today, but WCCO (Lauren Casey) last night noted the GFS and showed a snowfall graphic that had the Cities (and west) in the 6-10" snow bucket!! And she said "This is just one model though." I'm sure it was shown because it was the most crazy, but still...fuel for discussion!

    I sure hope PWL was watching that forecast on the toilet. Would just make life easier for him!

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    1. Yea, a little disappointing when they show the one model that shows the most snow. If you were watching with the sound down (a distinct likelihood with her most irritating voice), you could walk away thinking the big dump is the only one in the cards.

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  19. You can certainly tell most everyone is tip-toeing around this snow event coming,everywhere I look most everyone agrees it will snow......but at what rate/intensity?how much?how long?,if we were still in winter you would have heard of snow amounts being thrown around already and even some kind of headline from the NWS being less then 36 hours from the expected transition to snow,but till now most everyone is close to the hip with this one and totally understandable since its the second week of April and April snows have a high bust potential. I know April snows don't stick around more then a day or two,but if its going to snow then let's go big.....go big or go home!!......what is the record snowfall for an April snowstorm at MSP?......Its been awhile since I can remember a major snowfall in April,I believe the last one I can remember was April 2002 when we got quick burst of heavy wet snow,lasted maybe 3-4 hours and many areas received 6 inches,this after the high temp 6 days earlier hit 91!,April can be a freaky,wild month!

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  20. Marc,
    That is a fair question that certainly is worth addressing.

    I can't speak for those forecasting at the MPX NWS (They have several shifts hence different forecasters), but my M.O. with weather forecast is more of a "top down" approach rather than vice-versa. Let me explain.

    When I look at model data, I almost always look at the 250mb level first (Jet Stream level) before drilling lower in our atmosphere. This is especially crucial when viewing a storm that is more than 48 hours out. Once I get a good feel for the upper-level dynamics, then I drill deeper into the mid-levels before finally ending my viewing on the surface features.

    It is safe to say that I place much more weight on the mid & upper level dynamics than I do with the surface features especially when forecasting more than 24 hours in advance. Hell, I never trust surface weather maps including QPF (precipitation forecasts) until approx. 36-48 hours before the onset of a storm.

    I've learned my lessons the hard way by placing way too much emphasis on surface features, including QPF, too early in the game. This is a trap that many weather forecasters run into especially those with little time on their hands and/or who are simply too laze to view all atmospheric levels.

    With the impending storm for this week, I'm pretty confident that the storm will track further north than what some forecasters are predicting. There are several reasons why I'm going with this scenario:

    1.) Jet stream dynamics support a further north solution with the mid & upper level lows. All computer models are on board with this. Remember, even though the surface low may track well south of MN through IA, MO & IL, the upper level support will linger well NW of the surface low over so. MN.

    2.) Strong forcing at the 850mb, 700mb & 500mb levels will tend to keep the precipitation shield established well north of the surface low.

    3.) I can't believe I'm still saying this, but Arctic air is still alive and well in the northern U.S. including much of the Upper Midwest & MSP metro.

    Put all of this together, and you have a mess on your hands for much of MN. I hope this all makes sense.

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