Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Dear KSTP

Dear KSTP,

First, kudos to you. You’ve amassed weather talent the way the Yankees acquire career .300 hitters.

You’ve also done a good job positioning the cast of seemingly likable guys as a team to be reckoned with. Who can claim deaf ears when baritone Tom Barnard intones, “If it wasn’t for that, the KSTP team couldn’t have predicted a day like today.” It gives a viewer chills, much as the graphic of the four stalwart forecasters in Mount Rushmore repose does.

But we’re wondering about the team concept, and more importantly, whether you’re aware that recent “mixed forecasts” are confusing us poor viewers.

Specifically, we refer to the Dahl-Barlow tandem whose presentations overlap through the myriad of KSTP evening newscasts. Several times recently, as documented by commenters to minnesotaforecaster.com, their predictions have been significantly different. What’s a viewer to make of this?

A good example of this took place on Monday evening. Dave, in both his online commentary and on-air presentation, predicted “at least a couple of inches here” on Wednesday. This prediction was a clear outlier in comparison to all other local forecasters, where most mentioned snow showers and flurries. We were curious what Ken would say when it came his time to forecast. Would he follow the station line and predict the same as the chief meteorologist or would his forecast be more consistent with others in town? (It was the latter.)

This same generally confusing scenario played out late last week when Ken stated, “No major storms in sight,” while Dave stated, “Big storm possible next week.” The situation was aptly summarized by a tweeter who said, “Same station, no agreement. Who’s right?”

It’s perfectly understandable that individual forecasters come to different conclusions. We all should know that forecasting is part science and part art. But KSTP goes to great pains to convince us it’s a team effort, yet these inconsistencies leave us to wonder.

Forecasters and the forecasting community often, and correctly, fault the viewer/consumer for lumping them all together under “they,” as in “they called for 4 inches of snow or they called for 50 degrees.” In reality, of course, they got confused by what they heard, from whom and when.

But when one evening KSTP forecaster predicts “at least several inches of snow” and another says “maybe an inch” just minutes later, the station itself is creating the confusion. It makes us question whether there is collaboration or even an attempt at forming a consensus.

Sincerely,
Loyal viewers and weather watchers

P.S. Why does Ken Barlow always look like he’s racing to catch the bus when he not-so-gracefully exists the extended forecast screen?

46 comments:

  1. What is the story behind this new commenting style? Some update by blogspot?

    Wonder if there is a feud going on at KSTP. If this split continues, it will be interesting to see who is more accurate...

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  2. I haven't done anything differently. Must be blogspot.

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  3. Forecasts for the weekend and into next week seem to be trending warmer. Weather Channel is now forecasting mid-upper 30s several times between Sunday and next Thursday. Yesterday I heard forecasts of upper 20s for Sunday. What gives? What happened to cold air settling in???

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  4. Yea, TWC is really pumping the warmth for Sunday and Monday, considerably more so than anybody else. I don't have the scientific evidence to prove this, but it seems to me that TWC has been doing better than most of the other outlets of late.

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  5. Talk about busts,Dave Dahl is the biggest bust this winter,he has consistently gotten forecasts wrong,always calling for snow amounts greater then anyone which have for the most part been inaccurate,and is the definition of hype,can his ass and stick with the others there who are more conservative(and correct)!

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  6. Next week could be interesting as MN lies along a huge temp gradient next week. Some of the coldest air at 850 mb I have seen in a very long time will set up in Western Canada with mild conditions to our South. I think models are way underestimating the low level cold air. If we had a snow pack highs next Wed/Thur would stay well below zero all day but if ground stays bare then it won't get as cold. Hard to believe several areas of low pressure won't form over that gradient and bring us some snows next week

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    1. I saw that last night on the GFS before I went to bed, Last nights Euro confirms. Going to be hard to get into double digit highs with temps dropping to single digits below zero.
      I hope it doesn't go much further than that, w/o snow cover that would be like putting salt into the wounds of the snow lovers....

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  7. Hammer appreciate your comments above,crossing my fingers for snow big time,any chance we see a blizzard this winter like the likes of the one that went thru Chicago last year and dumped 22 inches or the domebuster one that hit here last year......Bill love your letter above but why you got to hate on my beloved Yankees that why,just cuz they have money and like to spend it.

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  8. Bill maybe hate wasnt the right word,but jealous,sounds as though your jealous we have .300 hitters,but it doesnt matter cuz they havent won with those hitters for some time now

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  9. @Big Daddy, I was just trying to reflect KSTP's zeal to acquire good talent. And since television stations aren't part of a competitive sports league, there's nothing that feels "unfair" about it (in contrast to the way baseball allows for crazy inequity).

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  10. @ Bill, love the new format

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    1. Yea, I had nothing to do with the new format (Blogger just added it, I guess), but yes, it does seem to offer more flexibility.

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  11. I really, REALLY like the snow set-up for next. As Hammer mentions above, the Upper Midwest will lie in the battle zone between brutally cold Arctic air in Canada/no. MN and mild air over the Plains. This baroclinic zone should produce several disturbances and each one will have the potential to produce accumulating snows. The disturbance for Mon/Tue time frame already looks interesting. Who knows, one of them may even become a Whopper!

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    1. Weather Underground doesn't seem very bullish on snow next week. Sounds like it will be too cold for serious snow outside a touch of arctic dust? Also, outside of light snow mention for Saturday, the NWS suggests zilcho through next Wednesday. Sigh....

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  12. Finally, this is what I like to see, a good strong ridge showing up over the Ohio Valley with a trough out west. I know its way out there and the GFS generally can't be trusted beyond 7 days IMO, but low and behold the control run of the ECMWF (which I'm not allowed to show) tries to develop the same thing. Lets see if this is just another tease or the real thing over the next few days.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20120112/12/gfs_namer_252_500_vort_ht.gif

    PS.... If your using Firefox, try highlighting the link, than right click and see if a box with open link shows up. Much easier than copy and paste.

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  13. There is no model agreement as far as strength or track of the system for early next week. GEM has an all out snowstorm, GFS starts to spin up something, but keeps it SE of the area, and the Euro is somewhat ho-hum about it. I'm not exactly sure which one to buy into at this point, but it bares watching, given the set up that Hammer and Novak mentioned above.

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    1. Agreed Duane, I've been comparing the GEM and the ECMWF, They look very similar at 500mb through Tues. At the surface they both have a very large low pressure area over the mountains Sunday afternoon. By Sunday evening the Gem keeps it together and than strengthens it, at the same time the Euro breaks it off into a northern system whose energy pass along the border, while the southern system passes us to the SE again.
      The Euro is so very close to the Gem it's scary, this will have to be watched closely.

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  14. And our Friend Paul Douglas doesn't even mention this -- he looks forward to the 23rd - "Too early to panic (or celebrate), more Wish-cast than forecast: GFS hints at significant snowstorm here around Jan 23 pic.twitter.com/ELfjyfEO "

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  15. The confusion continues. Dave writes: "There are hints of an even larger snow event moving in late next weekend." Ken, on the 5 p.m. news, says, "No storms anywhere in sight."

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  16. Monday into Tuesday looking more and more intriguing with each model run. You have to like the set-up: Bitter cold Arctic air seeping south into MN...Upper level jet streak with divergence aloft & a SW flow...mid-level disturbance riding along a strong baroclinic zone. The only thing missing is a strong low pressure on the model runs. Gut feeling is that this low eventually will start showing up on the models with each successive run.

    I just love the fact that we finally have some true Arctic air to work with. Should be interesting.

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    1. Well, the GEM and now the European are showing that strong low pressure forming, and somewhat the GFS (at least it is getting there). This is close enough to watch, but still a miss on the European and GFS. GEM is still a hit, but no shock there. Finally models are showing potential for systems!

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  17. Nice white coating in Rosemount this morning. Pleasant surprise. Might not be a lot, but at least its looking like real winter.

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  18. I just got a look at the new ECMWF monthly control run. While not looking for specifics on a four week model run, it does give one a chance to see if a pattern change could be under way, and indeed there is, according to that data set. It appears as if the model is taking the continental US into a more amplified pattern with deep troughs and strong ridges, ie a more stormy pattern, the first two weeks of Feb. Time will tell where the ridges east of us set up, but at this time it appears the storm tack will set up over SW Missouri to Madison WI and points east and south. I wished I had better news, but than again who knows what will happen.

    Thanks to Brett Anderson at Accu Weather for his interpretation of the Euro weeklies.

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/bad-news-for-alaska-into-february/60204

    BTW just a trace of snow here

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  19. @Randy,wouldn't a storm track running from sw Missouri to Madison be ideal for snow here in eastern MN,isn't rule of thumb that the heaviest snows fall on the backside/northwest side of a storm,so a storm tracking thru central WI surely would place Minneapolis inthe snow zone,correct?why is that bad news!

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    1. Preferred storm track when cold air is in place is La Crosse. The Madison route is more favorable for snow when it's a bigger (wider) storm and there's a lot of moisture and warm air, because the further northwest from the low you are, the better your chance of getting enough cold air for snow.

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    2. Anonymous: The most favored track for us to get big snow is if the track would go just east of Lacrosse to Green Bay, the model is actually showing the track from Madison to Chicago, thus the reference to points east and south of Madison. Sorry that I didn't make that clearer. Thanks for the question, is it close??? Sure is, a track 100 miles or so to the north and west would be a welcome site indeed!!! Like I said, looking more for patterns than specifics. So we have to wait to see if the pattern becomes more amplified or not, and if so where will the track set up??? I didn't mean for it sound like all doom and gloom.

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  20. Miss you all! Here in Indy today - we got 1.6" and with temps in the teens and wind chills just below zero, I couldn't help but think of Minnesota! Bill - always enjoy your commentary.

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    1. Hello stranger!!! thanks for thinking of us here. If you were up here this winter you would be bored with forecasting only temps and winds!!! LOL, hope you're enjoying yourself.

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  21. Ok first glance of the Euro and Gem are in, they are much more bullish on the storm for early next week. The Gem as usual is more bullish of the precip on the NW side of the storm. As of now it looks very interesting for SE MN, most all of IA, southern WI and Chicago, and NW MI. Here in the metro we could see a couple of inches. Novak start your snow dance! include a change of track dance while your at it LOL!!!

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  22. I'm all in and I'm going for broke! :)

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    1. Don't do it! We don't want to have to retrieve you from the ledge (or bridge). Weather.com, which has been proven pretty reliable these days, isn't too bullish on it (yet).

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    2. umm....Bill, sorry to say, but from what I can tell, (and maybe I wasn't looking at the right page for weather. com,) both accu and weather .com were a little late with this latest midwest storm. That's my answer to your comment (yet), I bet they catch on tonight, LOL

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    3. Maybe. I didn't notice what they were forecasting for other places but in the end, TWC was most accurate for msp. Anyway, I have no horse in the race and hope you, Novak, etc., nail it.

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  23. Speaking of snow expectations, hopes seem to be diminishing for accumulations tonight. NWS and weather.com both were forecasting up to an inch earlier today, but both have been downgraded to insignificant amounts. From what I can see on radar, it appears the area of snow is developing further southeast than originally expected.

    Broken record.

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    1. Correction, further SOUTHWEST, not southeast.

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  24. @ Bill, was watching and listening to TWC while cooking supper, they have caught on to it.

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    1. When I look at the forecast (late morning Saturday) they show http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/55116:4:US it doesn't look like they're thinking any snow for here.

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  25. All weather forecasters confuse the hell out of me. When I first found this site, it was for tornadic radar activity and the chance to learn a bit about BUFKIT and weather models from people who know way more about weather than I.

    The more I read, and the more I absorbed, and the more I saw conflicting information from different weather outlets and posters, I learned to take every forecast with a grain of salt. I realized that the models are the models, and it's the individual who takes their own personal interpretation of the information and ran with whatever they felt the models represented best.

    And I was really surprised to find the wide spectrum of interpretations. Now I just read, take in the parts I can fathom, and thank ya'll for making your posts and helping a total amateur weather junkie/storm chaser understand, bit by bit, what goes in to making a forecast.

    All I know, is I would hate to be a forecaster in MN. When I lived in Vegas for a decade, they could say "Sunny and 101f" and let it run for 12 weeks at a time. Much harder out here. Much respect for all those that go out on a limb.

    -13SR Migz

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  26. Pardon my frustation,but can we get some f**kin snow around here,its f**ckin Minnesota for crying out loud,this winter has been down right pathetic to say the least,its sad when the mets and for that matter snowlovers are getting excited over a dusting/coating to an inch or two,can we get just one snow storm please,I need to move some inventory,believe it or not spring product is rolling in.Novak dance like you never f**kin danced before,NWS now not bullish about Monday,what gives Novak what happened to having all the right ingredinets.

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  27. Big daddy....you are better than that type of language on this blog. Please don't.

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  28. Well, the storm for late Monday still could be considered a hunch right now because the model data (QPF & low lever features) are certainly not supporting an accumulating snow. However, I will stick to my guns since the upper level features do support a storm system. Sometimes, the models simply develop the low level features late in the game. Plus, I feel that Monday's storm system will be just the first of several pieces of energy that will be ejected into the Plains during the week.

    A more well defined surface low should develop in northern MO and move northeast into the Great Lakes region by Tuesday. Meanwhile, a mid-level low will develop over so. MN during the same timeframe. Cold air will be in place so any precip. that falls will be in the form of snow. Since the storm system is moving fast, snow totals will not be blockbuster, but I wouldn't be surprised if a 2"-5" snow falls somewhere in so. MN and/or no. IA including the Twin Cities.

    The battle zone is set, brutally cold Arctic air near our northern border and Canada vs. mild air over the souther Plains. MN lies right in the middle along the baroclinic boundary. Good place to be for some snow.

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  29. Seriously, someone mentioned earlier about concern for underground pipes, I looked and most of the gas lines in MN appear to be 18-36" inches underground. If we don't get a snow cover and the models are to warm for this next cold shot....hmmmm

    On a lighter note, maybe a bit of a informal pole. What will we get first? A blockbuster 4" snow storm (HAHAHA) or a 1/4" of liquid???

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    1. The MN frost line is usually 2-5 feet deep in the middle of winter. As of four weeks ago, it was only about 6 inches deep in the metro, so the lack of snow cover shouldn't make much of a difference. Even if the frost does deepen a lot in the next few weeks, it's likely only going to freeze to what's considered a normal level which yes, does put pipes at risk (mainly if water isn't run through them regularly)...but it does so every year.

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  30. I forgot, here a couple of good reads about our winter

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2010


    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=77390&source=0

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  31. Great weather for the "Crashed Ice" event in St. Paul tonight @ 7 pm.

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  32. It appears that Alaska will finally get a break from the storms battering them. The stom line is shifting southward as the jet stream does. This means that the pacific northwest has their turn for storms.

    What it means for us:

    We will likley see more storm systems around here, although they will be moisture starved. These weak systems will probably drop one to two inches as they pass by us.

    If the jet stream continues to sag southward, the lows would come into Colorado instead. If this happens, that would place them in prime position to gather energy and moisture. We would see several strong winter storms if this were to occur.

    Let us keep our fingers crossed.

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